Alliance Politics in Hybrid Regimes : Political Stability and Instability since World War II

Cette thèse étudie la stabilité et l’instabilité politique des régimes hybrides. Elle pose la question suivante : dans quelles conditions l’autorité des élites au pouvoir est-elle reconnue ou contestée? Notre réponse s’articule en lien avec le caractère inclusif ou exclusif de la coalition dirigeante : c’est-à-dire, l’alliance stratégique des élites dirigeantes avec les groupes sociaux dominants. L’inclusion de ces derniers favorise le consentement et la stabilité; leur exclusion entraîne l’affrontement et l’instabilité politique. Sa composition dépend (i) du degré de violence organisée extra-légale et (ii) du degré de pénétration de l’État sur le territoire et dans l’économie. La première variable permet d’identifier quel groupe social au sein de l’État (militaires) ou du régime (partis d’opposition) est dominant et influence les formes de communication politique avec les élites dirigeantes. La deuxième variable permet d’identifier quel groupe social au sein de l’État (fonctionnaires) ou de la société (chefs locaux) est dominant et oriente les rapports entre les régions et le pouvoir central. L’apport de la recherche est d’approfondir notre compréhension des institutions politiques dans les régimes hybrides en mettant l’accent sur l’identité des groupes sociaux dominants dans un contexte donné. La thèse propose un modèle simple, flexible et original permettant d’appréhender des relations causales autrement contre-intuitives. En ce sens, la stabilité politique est également possible dans un pays où l’État est faible et/ou aux prises avec des mouvements de rébellion; et l’instabilité dans un contexte inverse. Tout dépend de la composition de la coalition dirigeante. Afin d’illustrer les liens logiques formulés et d’exposer les nuances de notre théorie, nous employons une analyse historique comparative de la coalition dirigeante en Malaisie (1957-2010), en Indonésie (1945-1998), au Sénégal (1960-2010) et au Paraguay (1945-2008). La principale conclusion est que les deux variables sont incontournables. L’une sans l’autre offre nécessairement une explication incomplète des alliances politiques qui forgent les conditions de stabilité et d'instabilité dans les régimes hybrides.

HOLDING HANDS WHILE PARTING WAYS: EXAMINING ALLIANCE TREATY RENEGOTIATION

This study investigates the renegotiation of security alliances, specifically the structural conditions surrounding their revision. Although the field of international relations offers a rich discussion of the formation and violation of alliance treaties, few scholars have addressed the reasons why alliance members amend security obligations. After the formation of an alliance, a member may become dissatisfied owing to changes in the external and domestic security environments. A failure to address this discontent increases the risk of alliance breakdown. Members manage their alliance relationship through a negotiation process or intra-alliance bargaining in the search for a new arrangement that can endure. Factors that help to show commitment to the alliance and communicate a set of feasible solutions are crucial if members are to find a mutually acceptable arrangement. By taking these factors into account, allies are more likely to revise an existing treaty. Examining a set of bilateral alliances dating from 1945 to 2001, this research demonstrates that public requests for renegotiation compel allies to change the status quo. It is found that alliance-related fixed assets and the formation of external alliances increase the likelihood of treaty revision, though institutionalization of an alliance does not help to resolve interest divergence. In addition, this study examines the strategy of delay in intra-alliance bargaining. Allies may postpone a dispute by ignoring it while working to maintain the alliance. Tension among allies thus increases, but the alliance endures. I examine three alliances in order to illustrate this renegotiation process. Among these, the Anglo-Japanese alliance demonstrates two successful renegotiations that prolonged a wavering alliance relationship; the Sino-Soviet alliance is an example of failure owing to the lack of substantive cooperation; and the US-Taiwan alliance during the 1970s demonstrates successful use of a strategy of delay that appeases a dissatisfied member.

France and the Problems of Security and Disarmament after the First World War

Jackson, Peter, 'France and the Problems of Security and Disarmament after the First World War', Journal of Strategic Studies (2006) 29(2) pp.247-280 Special Issue: Enforcing arms limits: Germany post 1919; Iraq post 1991 RAE2008

Transformación de la Doctrina de Seguridad de la OTAN, en la Post- Guerra Fría, y sus efectos en la intervención en Macedonia (2001-2003)

El objetivo de esta monografía es examinar la transformación de la doctrina de seguridad de la OTAN en la Post-Guerra Fría y sus efectos en la intervención en la República de Macedonia. La desintegración del bloque soviético implicó la variación en la definición de las amenazas que atentan contra la supervivencia de los países miembro de la Alianza Atlántica. A partir de la década de los noventa, los conflictos de naturaleza interétnica pasaron a formar parte de los riesgos que transgreden la seguridad de los Aliados y la estabilidad del área Euro-Atlántica. Por lo anterior, la OTAN intervino en aquellos Estados en los que prevalecían las confrontaciones armadas interétnicas, como por ejemplo: en Macedonia. Allí, la Alianza Atlántica ejecutó operaciones de gestión de crisis para contrarrestar la amenaza. El fenómeno a estudiar en esta investigación será analizado a partir del Realismo Subalterno y de la Teoría de la Seguridad Colectiva.

Turkish Security Policymaking on Nuclear Issues: Conceptualizing Advanced Cooperative Security Strategies

Turkey is a non-nuclear member of a nuclear alliance in a region where nuclear proliferation is of particular concern. As the only North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member that has a border with the Middle East, Turkish officials argue that Turkey cannot solely rely on NATO guarantees in addressing the regional security challenges. However, Turkey has not been able to formulate a security policy that reconciles its quest for independence, its NATO membership, the bilateral relationship with the United States, and regional engagement in the Middle East. This dissertation assesses the strategic implications of Turkey’s perceptions of the U.S./NATO nuclear and conventional deterrence on nuclear issues. It explores three case studies by the process tracing of Turkish policymakers’ nuclear-related decisions on U.S. tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, national air and missile defense, and Iran’s nuclear program. The study finds that the principles of Turkish security policymaking do not incorporate a fundamentally different reasoning on nuclear issues than conventional deterrence. Nuclear weapons and their delivery systems do not have a defining role in Turkish security and defense strategy. The decisions are mainly guided by non-nuclear considerations such as Alliance politics, modernization of the domestic defense industry, and regional influence. The dissertation argues that Turkey could formulate more effective and less risky security policies on nuclear issues by emphasizing the cooperative security approaches within the NATO Alliance over confrontational measures. The findings of this dissertation reveal that a major transformation of Turkish security policymaking is required to end the crisis of confidence with NATO, redefinition of the strategic partnership with the US, and a more cautious approach toward the Middle East. The dissertation argues that Turkey should promote proactive measures to reduce, contain, and counter risks before they develop into real threats, as well as contribute to developing consensual confidence-building measures to reduce uncertainty.

Strategic intelligence, Counter-Intelligence and Alliance Diplomacy in Anglo-French relations before the Second World War

Jackson, Peter, and Joe Maiolo, 'Strategic intelligence, Counter-Intelligence and Alliance Diplomacy in Anglo-French relations before the Second World War', Military History (2006) 65(2) pp.417-461 RAE2008

Kennedy, Johnson and NATO: Britain, America and the Dynamics of Alliance, 1962-68

Priest, Andrew, Kennedy, Johnson and NATO: Britain, America and the Dynamics of Alliance, 1962-68 (New York: Routledge, 2006), wpp.xiv+222 RAE2008

Accessing the Institutions: The Road to the Socialist-Green Alliance in Spain

This article traces the strategic re-orientation of the Spanish Greens (Los Verdes) from a position of hostility toward the Socialists (PSOE) to one of collaboration that allowed them to gain parliamentary representation in the 2004 national and European elections. Drawing upon insights from the party politics literature, it schematizes a model and then proceeds to use it to provide a diachronic account of factionalist conflict within the ranks of the Greens and their close competitors, the structure of political opportunities, exogenous factors and their interrelationship, up to the point of the electoral agreement between the two parties. In concludes by highlighting the role played by the Madrid bombings in bringing the PSOE back into power and offers some projections about the future institutional access of the Greens.

The politics of in-work benefits: The case of the ‘active income of solidarity’ in France

In-work benefits have been introduced in a number of Bismarckian welfare regimes in a context of austerity despite being targeted at politically weak constituents and representing a deviation from prevailing welfare institutions. This article addresses this puzzle by looking at the introduction in 2008 of an in-work benefit scheme in France, the Active Income of Solidarity. The analysis reveals that this reform was the result of a cross-cutting alliance between the conservative party and employers, as well as parts of the socialist party and the union movement. The alliance was possible thanks to actors’ multiple interpretations of the reform. The reform was difficult to oppose given its support by experts and public opinion and because it entailed an increase in revenues for low-income workers.

Politics, press and military participation in the abdication of d. Pedro I

This work seeks to contribute to a better understanding of the Abdication, analyzing how and why sections of the army joined the liberal groups against the emperor, focusing on the period that immediately preceded this event. The argument is that the alliance between sections of the army and the liberal groups in 1831 was possible because the expansion of the "public space" in the city of Rio de Janeiro, a process in which newspapers such as "O Republico" played a key role as they became a privileged locus for political disputes. The article shows that that newspaper helped to build a political identity based on the defense of Brazilian interests against Portuguese despotism, giving momentum to internal conflicts around this subject that were already taking place among sections of the army and hence triggering the process that would lead to the Abdication.

The altar and the throne alliance. The Russian Orthodox Church vs. the government in Russia. OSW STUDIES 54, 2016-01-04

The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC), the largest religious community in Russia, plays an essential role in the process of the cultural and national self-identification of the Russian people. Being a socio-political institution with a centuries-long history, it possesses great symbolic capital and enjoys public respect, which has been used for political purposes. Since Vladimir Putin regained the presidency in 2012, in order to strengthen the political regime in Russia the Kremlin has begun to extensively draw upon conservative ideology and promote the traditional moral and social values which the Church is viewed as the guardian of. This has resulted in establishing closer relations between the secular government and the ROC, as well as in a greater engagement of ROC hierarchs and organisations in domestic and foreign policy issues. This situation exposes the ROC to criticism for being excessively involved in politics, and in the longer term, to the risks linked to potential destabilisation of the governmental system in Russia.

From apathy to nationalist mobilisation: politics makes a comeback in Armenia. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 215 | 08.06.2016

In the military dimension, the Four-Day War in Nagorno-Karabakh (2–5 April 2016) changed little in the conflict zone. It has, however, had a significant impact on the situation in Armenia. The country was shocked out of the political malaise that had been the dominant mood in the last few years, and the Karabakh question, which used to animate political life in the late 1980s and early 1990s, once again became a driving force behind developments. In the internal dimension, the renewed fighting galvanised the political scene, triggered a rise in nationalist sentiments, mobilised the public and consolidated it around the Karabakh question, overshadowing the frustrations caused by the country’s difficult economic situation. In the external dimension, the war, which was viewed as Moscow-endorsed Azerbaijani aggression, undermined people’s trust in Russia and the Armenian-Russian alliance. It also made it clear for Armenians how uncertain the Russian security guarantees were and exacerbated their feelings of vulnerability and isolation on the international stage.

What price coexistence? : a policy for the Western Alliance /

Mode of access: Internet.

Politics and religion; a study in Scottish history from the reformation to the revolution,

I. The French alliance. Condition of the church. The eve of the reformation, 1550-1559. The war of reformation, 1559-1560. The reformation parliament. John Knox. Maitland and Mary Stewart, 1561-1567. Civil war, 1568-1573. The new religion. Church and state. Bishops and presbyters, 1572-1625. The reign of the moderates. The national covenant, 1625-1638. Presbytery restored, 1638. The Glasgow assembly.--II. The covenant in arms, 1639-1641. The solemn league and covenant, 1641-1643. The royalist reaction, 1644-1648. The theocratic experiment, 1648-1651. The reign of the zealots. The restoration, 1651-1663. The Pentland rising, 1663-1667. The Leighton group, 1667-1674. The Bothwell rising, 1674-1680. Fanaticism and repression, 1680-1685. The revolution, 1685-1688. The revolution settlement, 1688-1695.

The role of the greens in the local politics of West Germany.

The study examines the contribution of the Greens to the changing nature of West Germany's local politics in the 1980s. The changes correspond broadly to the politicisation and parliamentarisation of a sphere of government traditionally perceived as being "unpolitical". Building upon theories of the New Politics, it is suggested that the varying pace of socio-economic change across the Federal Republic underlies the nonuniform development of its local party systems. The party systems of localities which have witnessed rapid social and economic change are found to be more susceptible to the emergence of a New Politics dimension than those of communities in which change has occurred less rapidly. The thesis continues by addressing aspects of the Greens' role in the development of local party systems across the Federal Republic. Despite the fact that marked differences in the Greens' approach to local political participation are registered in communities of varying socio-economic types, it is argued that the Greens are largely responsible for the introduction of a "New Local Politics" dimension into West Germany's local party systems. In a comprehensive study of the Greens' role in the Mainz party system, the conflicting styles and practices of the Greens and the established political parties in the city are depicted. The failure of the Green Party to form an alliance with the SPD in the city council is attributed to the cleavage between the Greens' New Politics and the SPD's Old Politics approaches. A detailed analysis of the parliamentary initiatives introduced by the four parties represented in the Mainz council between 1984 and 1987 also supports the contention that a New Politics dimension exists in the city's party system. This dimension is identified as representing a significant source of conflict during the period of analysis.