Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Design and implementation of sensor networks for the observation and research of harmful algal blooms in southern California coastal waters

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) have become an important environmental concern along the western coast of the United States. Toxic and noxious blooms adversely impact the economies of coastal communities in the region, pose risks to human health, and cause mortality events that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of fish, marine mammals and seabirds. One goal of field-based research efforts on this topic is the development of predictive models of HABs that would enable rapid response, mitigation and ultimately prevention of these events. In turn, these objectives are predicated on understanding the environmental conditions that stimulate these transient phenomena. An embedded sensor network (Fig. 1), under development in the San Pedro Shelf region off the Southern California coast, is providing tools for acquiring chemical, physical and biological data at high temporal and spatial resolution to help document the emergence and persistence of HAB events, supporting the design and testing of predictive models, and providing contextual information for experimental studies designed to reveal the environmental conditions promoting HABs. The sensor platforms contained within this network include pier-based sensor arrays, ocean moorings, HF radar stations, along with mobile sensor nodes in the form of surface and subsurface autonomous vehicles. FreewaveTM radio modems facilitate network communication and form a minimally-intrusive, wireless communication infrastructure throughout the Southern California coastal region, allowing rapid and cost-effective data transfer. An emerging focus of this project is the incorporation of a predictive ocean model that assimilates near-real time, in situ data from deployed Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). The model then assimilates the data to increase the skill of both nowcasts and forecasts, thus providing insight into bloom initiation as well as the movement of blooms or other oceanic features of interest (e.g., thermoclines, fronts, river discharge, etc.). From these predictions, deployed mobile sensors can be tasked to track a designated feature. This focus has led to the creation of a technology chain in which algorithms are being implemented for the innovative trajectory design for AUVs. Such intelligent mission planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to precise depths and locations that are the sites of active blooms, or physical/chemical features that might be sources of bloom initiation or persistence. The embedded network yields high-resolution, temporal and spatial measurements of pertinent environmental parameters and resulting biology (see Fig. 1). Supplementing this with ocean current information and remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, we obtain a comprehensive foundation for developing a fundamental understanding of HAB events. This then directs labor- intensive and costly sampling efforts and analyses. Additionally, we provide coastal municipalities, managers and state agencies with detailed information to aid their efforts in providing responsible environmental stewardship of their coastal waters.

Satellite evidence of harmful algal blooms and related oceanographic features in the Bohai Sea during autumn 1998

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are truly global marine phenomena of increasing significance. Some HAB occurrences are different to observe because of their high spatial and temporal variability and their advection, once formed, by surface currents. A serious HAB occurred in the Bohai Sea during autumn 1998, causing the largest fisheries economic loss. The present study analyzes the formation, distribution, and advection of HAB using satellite SeaWiFS ocean color data and other oceanographic data. The results show that the bloom originated in the western coastal waters of the Bohai Sea in early September, and developed southeastward when sea surface temperature (SST) increased to 25-26 °C. The bloom with a high Chl-a concentration (6.5 mg m-3) in center portion covered an area of 60 × 65 km2. At the end of September, the bloom decayed when SST decreased to 22-23 °C. The HAB may have been initiated by a combination of the river discharge nutrients in the west coastal waters and the increase of SST; afterwards it may have been transported eastward by the local circulation that was enhanced by northwesterly winds in late September and early October.

Algal Photosynthetic Dynamics in Urban Lakes under Stress Conditions

Urban lakes form vital ecosystems supporting livelihood with social, economic and aesthetic benefits that are essential for quality life. This depends on the biotic and abiotic components in an ecosystem. The structure of an ecosystem forms a decisive factor in sustaining its functional abilities which include nutrient cycling, oxygen production, etc. A community assemblage of primary producers (algae) plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance as they form the base of energy pyramid in the ecosystem. Algae assimilate carbon in the environment via photosynthetic activities and releases oxygen for the next level of biotic elements in an ecosystem. Besides these, algal cells rich in protein serve as food and feed, used as manure and for production of biofuels. Understanding algal photosynthetic dynamics helps in assessing the level of dissolved oxygen (DO), food (fish, etc.), waste assimilation, etc. Algal chlorophyll content, algal biomass, primary productivity and algal photosynthetic quotient are some of the parameters that help in assessing the status of urban lakes. Chlorophyll content gives a measure of the growth, spread and quantity of algae. Unplanned rapid urbanization in Bangalore in recent times has resulted in either disappearance of lake ecosystems or deteriorated the lake water quality impairing the ecological processes. This paper computes algal growth, community structure, primary productivity and composition for three major lakes (T G Halli, Bellandur and Varthur lakes) under contrast levels of anthropogenic influences.

Algal biofuel production and mitigation potential in India

Energy and energy services are the backbone of growth and development in India and is increasingly dependent upon the use of fossil based fuels that lead to greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and related concerns. Algal biofuels are being evolved as carbon (C)-neutral alternative biofuels. Algae are photosynthetic microorganisms that convert sunlight, water and carbon dioxide (CO2) to various sugars and lipids Tri-Acyl-Glycols (TAG) and show promise as an alternative, renewable and green fuel source for India. Compared to land based oilseed crops algae have potentially higher yields (5-12 g/m(2)/d) and can use locations and water resources not suited for agriculture. Within India, there is little additional land area for algal cultivation and therefore needs to be carried out in places that are already used for agriculture, e.g. flooded paddy lands (20 Mha) with village level technologies and on saline wastelands (3 Mha). Cultivating algae under such conditions requires novel multi-tier, multi-cyclic approaches of sharing land area without causing threats to food and water security as well as demand for additional fertilizer resources by adopting multi-tier cropping (algae-paddy) in decentralized open pond systems. A large part of the algal biofuel production is possible in flooded paddy crop land before the crop reaches dense canopies, in wastewaters (40 billion litres per day), in salt affected lands and in nutrient/diversity impoverished shallow coastline fishery. Mitigation will be achieved through avoidance of GHG, C-capture options and substitution of fossil fuels. Estimates made in this paper suggest that nearly half of the current transportation petro-fuels could be produced at such locations without disruption of food security, water security or overall sustainability. This shift can also provide significant mitigation avenues. The major adaptation needs are related to socio-technical acceptance for reuse of various wastelands, wastewaters and waste-derived energy and by-products through policy and attitude change efforts.

Algal biofuel from urban wastewater in India: Scope and challenges

Rapidly depleting stocks of fossil fuels and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have necessitated the exploration of cost effective sustainable energy sources focussing on biofuels through algae. Abundant wastewaters generated in urban localities every day provide the nourishment to nurture algae for biofuel generation. The present communication focuses on the lipid prospects of algae grown in wastewater systems. Euglena sp., Spirogyra sp. and Phormidium sp. were collected from selected locations of sewage fed urban lakes and sewage treatment plants of Bangalore and Mysore. The total lipid content of Euglena sp. was higher (24.6%) compared to Spirogyra sp. (18.4%) followed by Phormidium sp. (8.8%) and their annual lipid yield potential was 6.52, 1.94 and 2.856 t/ha/year, respectively. These species showed higher content of fatty acids (palmitate, stearate followed by oleic and linoleic acids) with the desirable biofuel properties. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cytotoxicity of aluminium oxide nanoparticles towards fresh water algal isolate at low exposure concentrations

The growing commercial applications had brought aluminium oxide nanoparticles under,toxicologists' purview. In the present study, the cytotoxicity of two different sized aluminium oxide nanoparticles (ANP(1), mean hydrodynamic diameter 82.6 +/- 22 nm and ANP(2), mean hydrodynamic diameter 246.9 +/- 39 nm) towards freshwater algal isolate Chlorella ellipsoids at low exposure levels (<= 1 mu g/mL) using sterile lake water as the test medium was assessed. The dissolution of alumina nanoparticles and consequent contribution towards toxicity remained largely unexplored owing to its presumed insoluble nature. Herein, the leached Al3+ ion mediated toxicity has been studied along with direct particulate toxicity to bring out the dynamics of toxicity through colloidal stability, biochemical, spectroscopic and microscopic analyses. The mean hydrodynamic diameter increased with time both for ANP(1) 82.6 +/- 22 nm (0 h) to 246.3 +/- 59 nm (24h), to 1204 +/- 140 nm (72 h)] and ANP(2) 246.9 +/- 39 nm (Oh) to 368.28 +/- 48 nm (24 h), to 1225.96 +/- 186 nm (72 h)] signifying decreased relative abundance of submicron sized particles (<1000 nm). The detailed cytotoxicity assays showed a significant reduction in the viability dependent on dose and exposure. A significant increase in ROS and LDH levels were noted for both ANPs at 1 mu g/mL concentration. The zeta potential and FT-IR analyses suggested surface chemical interaction between nanoparticles and algal cells. The substantial morphological changes and cell wall damage were confirmed through microscopic analyses (SEM, TEM, and CLSM). At 72 h, significant Al3+ ion release in the test medium 0.092 mu g/mL for ANP(1), and 0.19 mu g/mL for ANP(2)] was noted, and the resulting suspension containing leached ions caused significant cytotoxicity, revealing a substantial ionic contribution. This study indicates that both the nano-size and ionic dissolution play a significant role in the cytotoxicity of ANPs towards freshwater algae, and the exposure period largely determines the prevalent mode of nano-toxicity.

Algal biofuel: bountiful lipid from Chlorococcum sp proliferating in municipal wastewater

Algae biofuel have emerged as viable renewable energy sources and are the potential alternatives to fossil-based fuels in recent times. Algae have the potential to generate significant quantities of commercially viable biofuel apart from treating wastewater. Three algal species, viz. Chlorococcum sp., Microcystis sp. and Phormidium sp. proliferating in wastewater ponds were isolated and cultured in the laboratory myxotrophically under similar wastewater conditions. Chlorococcum sp. attained a mean biomass productivity of 0.09 g. I(-1)d(-1) with the maximum `biomass density of 1.33 g I-1 and comparatively higher lipid content of 30.55% (w/w) on the ninth day of the culture experiment. Under similar conditions Microcystis sp. and Phormidium sp. attained mean biomass productivities of 0.058 and 0.063 g I-1 d(-1) with a total lipid content of 8.88% and 18.66% respectively. Biochemical composition (carbohydrates, proteins, lipids and phosphates) variations and lipid accumulation studies were performed by comparison of the ratios of carbohydrate to protein; lipid to protein (L/P) and lipid to phosphates using attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy which showed higher L/P ratio during the stationary phase of algal growth. Composition analysis of fatty acid methyl ester has been performed using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. Chlorococcum sp. with higher productivity and faster growth rate has higher lipid content with about 67% of saturated fatty acid dominated by palmitate (36.3%) followed by an unsaturate as linoleate (14%) and has proved to be an economical and viable feedstock for biofuel production compared to the other wastewater-grown species.

Bioremediation and lipid synthesis through mixotrophic algal consortia in municipal wastewater

Algae grown in outdoor reactors (volume: 10 L and depth: 20 cm) were fed directly with filtered and sterilised municipal wastewater. The nutrient removal efficiencies were 86%, 90%, 89%, 70% and 76% for TOC, TN, NH4-N, TP and OP, respectively, and lipid content varied from 18% to 28.5% of dry algal biomass. Biomass productivity of similar to 122 mg/l/d (surface productivity 24.4 g/m(2)/d) and lipid productivity of similar to 32 mg/l/d were recorded. Gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) showed a higher content of desirable fatty acids (bearing biofuel properties) with major contributions from saturates such as palmitic acid C16:0; similar to 40%] and stearic acid C18:0; similar to 34%], followed by unsaturates such as oleic acid C18:1(9); similar to 10%] and linoleic acid C18:2(9,12); similar to 5%]. The decomposition of algal biomass and reactor residues with an exothermic heat content of 123.4 J/g provides the scope for further energy derivation. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harmful algal blooms in the PICES region of the North Pacific

Foreword Background and objectives [pdf, 0.84 MB] Country reviews and status reports Section I. Western North Pacific Japan Yasuwo Fukuyo, Ichiro Imai, Masaaki Kodama and Kyoichi Tamai Red tides and harmful algal blooms in Japan [pdf, 0.7 MB] People's Republic of China Tian Yan, Ming-Jiang Zhou and Jing-Zhong Zou A national report of HABs in China [pdf, 0.24 MB] Republic of Korea Sam Geun Lee, Hak Gyoon Kim, Eon Seob Cho and Chang Kyu Lee Harmful algal blooms (red tides): Management and mitigation in Korea [pdf, 0.27 MB] Russia Tatiana Y. Orlova, Galina V. Konovalova, Inna V. Stonik, Tatiana V. Morozova and Olga G. Shevchenko Harmful algal blooms on the eastern coast of Russia [pdf, 1.4 MB] Section II. Eastern North Pacific Canada F.J.R. "Max" Taylor and Paul J. Harrison Harmful marine algal blooms in western Canada [pdf, 0.87 MB] United States of America Vera L. Trainer Harmful algal blooms on the U.S. west coast [pdf, 0.5 MB] Mexico Jose L. Ochoa, S. Lluch-Cota, B.O. Arredondo-Vega, E. Nuñes-Vázquez, A. Heredia-Tapia, J. Pérez-Linares and R. Alonso-Rodriguez Marine Biotoxins and harmful algal blooms in Mexico's Pacific littora [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary and conclusions [pdf, 0.6 MB] Appendices A. Members of the Working Group [pdf, 0.1 MB] B. Original terms of reference (Vladivostok, 1999) [pdf, 0.08 MB] C. Annual reports of WG 15 [pdf, 0.15 MB] D. Workshop report on taxonomy and identification of HAB species and data management [pdf, 0.15 MB] (Document pdf contains 156 pages)

Effects of temperature on the threshold of phosphorus for algal blooms

Algal blooms, worsening marine ecosystems and causing great economic loss, have been paid much attention to for a long time. Such environmental factors as light penetration, water temperature, and nutrient concentration are crucial in blooms processes. Among them, only nutrients can be controlled. Therefore, the threshold of nutrients for algal blooms is of great concern. To begin with, a dynamic eutrophication model has been constructed to simulate the algal growth and phosphorus cycling. The model encapsulates the essential biological processes of algal growth and decay, and phosphorus regeneration due to algal decay. The nutrient limitation is based upon commonly used Monod's kinetics. The effects of temperature and phosphorus limitation are particularly addressed. Then, we have endeavored to elucidate the threshold of phosphorus at different temperature for algal blooms. Based on the numerical simulation, the isoquant contours of change rate of alga as shown in the figure are obtained, which obviously demonstrate the threshold of nutrient at an arbitrary reasonable temperature. The larger the change rate is, the more rapidly the alga grows. If the phosphorus concentration at a given temperature remains larger than the threshold the algal biomass may increase monotonically, leading to the algal blooming. With the rising of temperature, the threshold is apparently reduced, which may explain why likely red tide disasters occur in a fine summer day. So, high temperature and sufficient phosphorus supply are the major factors which result in algal growth and blowout of red tide.

Harmful algal research and response: A human dimensions strategy

Harmful Algal Research and Response: A Human Dimensions Strategy (HARR-HD) justifies and guides a coordinated national commitment to human dimensions research critical to prevent and respond to impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs). Beyond HABs, it serves as a framework for developing hu-man dimensions research as a cross-cutting priority of ecosystem science supporting coastal and ocean management, including hazard research and mitigation planning. Measuring and promoting commu-nity resilience to hazards require human dimensions research outcomes such as effective risk commu-nication strategies; assessment of community vulnerability; identification of susceptible populations; comprehensive assessment of environmental, sociocultural, and economic impacts; development of effective decision support tools; and improved coordination among agencies and stakeholders. HARR-HD charts a course for human dimensions research to achieve these and other priorities through co-ordinated implementation by the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (JSOST) In-teragency Working Group on HABs, Hypoxia and Human Health (IWG-4H); national HAB funding programs; national research and response programs; and state research and monitoring programs. (PDF contains 72 pages)

Behavioral and Physiological Responses to Light by the Sea Anemone Anthopleura elegantissima as Related to its Algal Endosymbionts

The endosymbiosis of algae with invertebrates may be viewed with at least two major orientations. On the one hand, one may focus on the plant and animal as essentially separate organisms living together, as the word symbiosis states. The products which are exchanged between the plant and animal and the effects of the association on either partner are then of particular interest. On the other hand, one may consider the partnership as an entity, and attempt to investigate the physiology, behavior, etc. of the symbiotic association, observing what differences may appear between the "plant-animal" and analogous non-symbiotic organisms. It is the second approach which I have tried to take in this thesis. I have concentrated on some effects of light on symbiotic and aposymbiotic sea anemones of the species Anthopleura elegantissima, particularly with respect to pigmentation and several types of behavior.