Air pollution, temperature and pediatric influenza in Brisbane, Australia

Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of weather variables in influencing the incidence of influenza. However, the role of air pollution is often ignored in identifying the environmental drivers of influenza. This research aims to examine the impacts of air pollutants and temperature on the incidence of pediatric influenza in Brisbane, Australia. Lab-confirmed daily data on influenza counts among children aged 0-14years in Brisbane from 2001 January 1st to 2008 December 31st were retrieved from Queensland Health. Daily data on maximum and minimum temperatures for the same period were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Winter was chosen as the main study season due to it having the highest pediatric influenza incidence. Four Poisson log-linear regression models, with daily pediatric seasonal influenza counts as the outcome, were used to examine the impacts of air pollutants (i.e., ozone (O3), particulate matter≤10μm (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) and temperature (using a moving average of ten days for these variables) on pediatric influenza. The results show that mean temperature (Relative risk (RR): 0.86; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.82-0.89) was negatively associated with pediatric seasonal influenza in Brisbane, and high concentrations of O3 (RR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.25-1.31) and PM10 (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.10-1.13) were associated with more pediatric influenza cases. There was a significant interaction effect (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.95) between PM10 and mean temperature on pediatric influenza. Adding the interaction term between mean temperature and PM10 substantially improved the model fit. This study provides evidence that PM10 needs to be taken into account when evaluating the temperature-influenza relationship. O3 was also an important predictor, independent of temperature.

(Table 1) Characteristics of air temperature, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, nutrients, and total particulate matter for Admiralty Bay and Potter Cove, King George Island, Antarctica

Since the early 1990s, phytoplankton has been studied and monitored in Potter Cove (PC) and Admiralty Bay (AB), King George/25 de Mayo Island (KGI), South Shetlands. Phytoplankton biomass is typically low compared to other Antarctic shelf environments, with average spring - summer values below 1 mg chlorophyll a (Chl a)/m**3. The physical conditions in the area (reduced irradiance induced by particles originated from the land, intense winds) limit the coastal productivity at KGI, as a result of shallow Sverdrup's critical depths (Zc) and large turbulent mixing depths (Zt). In January 2010 a large phytoplankton bloom with a maximum of around 20 mg Chl a/m**3, and monthly averages of 4 (PC) and 6 (AB) mg Chl a/m**3, was observed in the area, making it by far the largest recorded bloom over the last 20 yr. Dominant phytoplankton species were the typical bloom-forming diatoms that are usually found in the western Antarctic Peninsula area. Anomalously cold air temperature and dominant winds from the eastern sector seem to explain adequate light : mixing environment. Local physical conditions were analyzed by means of the relationship between Zc and Zt, and conditions were found adequate for allowing phytoplankton development. However, a multiyear analysis indicates that these conditions may be necessary but not sufficient to guarantee phytoplankton accumulation. The relation between maximum Chl a values and air temperature suggests that bottom-up control would render such large blooms even less frequent in KGI under the warmer climate expected in the area during the second half of the present century.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

Variabilidade temporal e espacial do tamanho de amostra da temperatura mínima do ar no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil

Com o objetivo de verificar a existência de variabilidade temporal e espacial do tamanho de amostra da temperatura mínima do ar média mensal de trinta e sete municípios do Rio Grande do Sul, utilizaram-se os dados de temperatura mínima do ar do período de 1931 a 2000. Determinou-se o tamanho de amostra da temperatura mínima do ar média mensal em cada mês e município. Realizou-se análise de agrupamento dos meses e dos municípios pelo método hierárquico vizinho mais distante. Há variabilidade do tamanho de amostra (número de anos) para a estimativa da temperatura mínima do ar média mensal no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul no tempo e no espaço. Maior tamanho de amostra, no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, é necessário nos meses de maio, junho e julho, com diminuição gradativa em direção a janeiro e dezembro. Há variabilidade do tamanho de amostra entre os municípios do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.

Ice and snow measurements during Nathaniel B. Palmer cruise NBP0709 (SIMBA experiment)

The Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Antarctic (SIMBA) experiment was conducted from the RVIB N.B. Palmer in September and October 2007 in the Bellingshausen Sea in an area recently experiencing considerable changes in both climate and sea ice cover. Snow and ice properties were observed at 3 short-term stations and a 27-day drift station (Ice Station Belgica, ISB) during the winter-spring transition. Repeat measurements were performed on sea ice and snow cover at 5 ISB sites, each having different physical characteristics, with mean ice (snow) thicknesses varying from 0.6 m (0.1 m) to 2.3 m (0.7 m). Ice cores retrieved every five days from 2 sites and measured for physical, biological, and chemical properties. Three ice mass-balance buoys (IMBs) provided continuous records of snow and ice thickness and temperature. Meteorological conditions changed from warm fronts with high winds and precipitation followed by cold and calm periods through four cycles during ISB. The snow cover regulated temperature flux and controlled the physical regime in which sea ice morphology changed. Level thin ice areas had little snow accumulation and experienced greater thermal fluctuations resulting in brine salinity and volume changes, and winter maximum thermodynamic growth of ~0.6 m in this region. Flooding and snow-ice formation occurred during cold spells in ice and snow of intermediate thickness. In contrast, little snow-ice formed in flooded areas with thicker ice and snow cover, instead nearly isothermal, highly permeable ice persisted. In spring, short-lived cold air episodes did not effectively penetrate the sea ice nor overcome the effect of ocean heat flux, thus favoring net ice thinning from bottom melt over ice thickening from snow-ice growth, in all cases. These warm ice conditions were consistent with regional remote sensing observations of earlier ice breakup and a shorter sea ice season, more recently observed in the Bellingshausen Sea.

Hydrological and meteorological records from the Vernagtferner Basin - Vernagtbach station, for the years 2002 to 2012

In November 2001, two separate Campbell loggers ("Meteologger" and "Hydrologger", both type CR23X) were installed at the Vernagtbach site in the Oetztal Alps, Austria (Latitude: 46.85; Longitude: 10.82; Elevation: 2640 m). On these loggers, 10-minutes centred averages for the meteorological data and 5-minutes centred averages for the hydrological data are recorded. The meteorological parameters comprise air temperature, humidity of the air, air pressure, four radiation components, wind direction and speed, precipitation and snow height. For air temperature, two records are published, recorded with a ventilated and an unventilated Pt-100 in a Stevenson screen; for precipitation, three time series are available: (I) the cumulative record of a weighing gauge for the whole year, (II) single events derived from (I), and (III) single events from a tipping bucket; (II) and (III) are only provided for the period 1, May to 31, October of each year. Wind records are also given with a time step of one hour, as only these records include several statistics of speed and direction. Hydrological parameters are recorded on the "Hydrologger", they comprise water stage, discharge, water temperature and electrolytic conductivity of the water. An identifying number gives the kind of instrument used in the water stage time series. Daily photographs of the glacier are provided and analysed with respect to precipitation type.

(Tables 1,2) Viability of Poa trivialis seeds transported to Antarctica from different locations

Antarctic ecosystems are at risk from the introduction of invasive species. The first step in the process of invasion is the transportation of alien species to Antarctic in a viable state. However, the effect of long-distance human-mediated dispersal, over different time-scales, on propagule viability is not well known. We assessed the viability of Poa trivialis seeds transported to Antarctica from the UK, South Africa and Australia by ship or by ship and aircraft. Following transportation to the Antarctic Treaty area, no reduction in seed viability was found, despite journey times lasting up to 284 days and seeds experiencing temperatures as low as -1.5°C. This work confirms that human-mediated transport may overcome the dispersal barrier for some propagules, and highlights the need for effective pre-departure biosecurity measures.