Patulin determination in apples with rotten areas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Geographic Variation of Notified Ross River Virus Infections in Queensland, Australia, 1985-1996

The spatial and temporal variations of Ross River virus infections reported in Queensland, Australia, between 1985 and 1996 were studied by using the Geographic Information System. The notified cases of Ross River virus infection came from 489 localities between 1985 and 1988, 805 between 1989 and 1992, and 1,157 between 1993 and 1996 (chi2(df = 2) = 680.9; P < 0.001). There was a marked increase in the number of localities where the cases were reported by 65 percent for the period of 1989-1992 and 137 percent for 1993-1996, compared with that for 1985-1988. The geographic distribution of the notified Ross River virus cases has expanded in Queensland over recent years. As Ross River virus disease has impacted considerably on tourism and industry, as well as on residents of affected areas, more research is required to explore the causes of the geographic expansion of the notified Ross River virus infections.

Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

Community response to disasters in Indonesia : Gotong Royong; a double edged-sword

Indonesia is a country spread across wide-ranging archipelago, located in South East Asia between two oceans, the Indian and the Pacific. Indonesia is well known as an active tectonic region because it lies on top of three major active tectonic plates: the Eurasian in the North, the Indian Ocean-Australian in the South, and the Pacific plate in the East. The southern and eastern part of the country features a range of volcanic arcs, volcanic mountains, and lowlands with 500 young volcanoes, of which 128 are active and thus representing 15% of the world’s active volcanoes. In the period 2002-2007, approximately 1782 disasters occurred, with hundreds of thousands of lives lost and billions of rupiah in losses incurred: (Floods - 1183 instances, cyclones - 272 instances, and landslides - 252 instances). Of these, the 2004 Aceh tsunami and the 2006 central Java earthquake (impacting predominantly city and suburbs of Yogyakarta) were the most significant. Even so, disaster management experts believe lessons learnt from the two major natural disasters needs to be formalised into laws and institutions before another disaster occurs, regardless of the type of natural disaster – i.e. Volcano eruption or landslide; as opposed to tsunami or earthquake. Following in the wake of disasters occurring in Yogyakarta, many of its community members responded by banding together as one, with the determination of rebuilding its villages and cities through the spirit of ‘gotong royong’. The idea of social interaction; in particular as a collective, consensual, and cooperative nation; has predominantly formed the ideological basis of Indonesia’s societal nature. Many Indonesian terms cohere to this ideology, such as: ‘koperasi” (cooperatives as the basis of economic interactions), ‘musyawarah’ (consensual nature in decision making), and ‘gotong royong’ (mutual assistance). ‘Gotong royong’ has become a key cultural operator in Indonesia, in particular In Jogjakarta. Appropriately so as ‘gotong royong’ is depicted from the traditional Javanese village, where labour is accomplished through reciprocal exchange and the villagers are motivated by a general ethos of selfishness and concern for the common good. The culture of ‘gotong royong’ promotes positive values such as social harmony and mutual reciprocation in disaster-affected areas provides the necessary spirit needed to endure the hardships and for all involved. While gotong royong emphasises the positive notions of mutual family support and deep community level activity there is a potential for contrast against government lead disaster response and recovery management activities especially in settings where sporadic governance mechanisms exist and transparency and accountability in the recovery process of public infrastructure assets have been questioned. This paper thus questions whether Gotong Royong is a double-edged sword, and explores the potential marriage of community values and governance mechanisms for future disaster management planning and practice.

Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour

The past decade has seen an increase in the number of significant natural disasters that have caused considerable loss of life as well as damage to all property markets in the affected areas. In many cases, these natural disasters have not only caused significant property damage, but in numerous cases, have resulted in the total destruction of the property in the location. With these disasters attracting considerable media attention, the public are more aware of where these affected property markets are, as well as the overall damage to properties that have been damaged or destroyed. This heightened level of awareness has to have an impact on the participants in the property market, whether a developer, vendor seller or investor. To assess this issue, a residential property market that has been affected by a significant natural disaster over the past 2 years has been analysed to determine the overall impact of the disaster on buyer, renter and vendor behaviour, as well as prices in these residential markets. This paper is based on data from the Brisbane flood in January 2011. This natural disaster resulted in loss of life and partial and total devastation of considerable residential property sectors. Data for the research have been based on the residential sales and rental listings for each week of the study period to determine the level of activity in the specific property sectors, and these are also compared to the median house prices for the various suburbs for the same period based on suburbs being either flood affected or flood free. As there are 48 suburbs included in the study, it has been possible to group these suburbs on a socio-economic basis to determine possible differences due to location and value. Data were accessed from realestate.com.au, a free real estate site that provides details of current rental and sales listings on a suburb basis, RP Data a commercial property sales database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper found that sales listings fell immediately after the flood in the affected areas, but there was no corresponding fall or increase in sales listings in the flood-free suburbs. There was a significant decrease in the number of rental listings follow the flood as affected parties sought alternate accommodation. The greatest fall in rental listings was in areas close to the flood-affected suburbs indicating the desire to be close to the flooded property during the repair period.

Capacity of fatty acid profiles and substrate utilization patterns to describe differences in soil microbial communities associated with increased salinity or alkalinity at three locations in South Australia

Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles, together with Biolog substrate utilization patterns, were used in conjunction with measurements of other soil chemical and microbiological properties to describe differences in soil microbial communities induced by increased salinity and alkalinity in grass/legume pastures at three sites in SE South Australia. Total ester-linked FAMEs (EL-FAMEs) and phospholipid-linked FAMEs (PL-FAMEs), were also compared for their ability to detect differences between the soil microbial communities. The level of salinity and alkalinity in affected areas of the pastures showed seasonal variation, being greater in summer than in winter. At the time of sampling for the chemical and microbiological measurements (winter) only the affected soil at site 1 was significantly saline. The affected soils at all three sites had lower organic C and total N concentrations than the corresponding non-affected soils. At site 1 microbial biomass, CO 2-C respiration and the rate of cellulose decomposition was also lower in the affected soil compared to the non-affected soil. Biomarker fatty acids present in both the EL- and PL-FAME profiles indicated a lower ratio of fungal to bacterial fatty acids in the saline affected soil at site 1. Analysis of Biolog substrate utilization patterns indicated that the bacterial community in the affected soil at site 1 utilized fewer carbon substrates and had lower functional diversity than the corresponding community in the non-affected soil. In contrast, increased alkalinity, of major importance at sites 2 and 3, had no effect on microbial biomass, the rate of cellulose decomposition or functional diversity but was associated with significant differences in the relative amounts of several fatty acids in the PL-FAME profiles indicative of a shift towards a bacterial dominated community. Despite differences in the number and relative amounts of fatty acids detected, principal component analysis of the EL- and PL-FAME profiles were equally capable of separating the affected and non-affected soils at all three sites. Redundancy analysis of the FAME data showed that organic C, microbial biomass, electrical conductivity and bicarbonate-extractable P were significantly correlated with variation in the EL-FAME profiles, whereas pH, electrical conductivity, NH 4-N, CO 2-C respiration and the microbial quotient were significantly correlated with variation in the PL-FAME profiles. Redundancy analysis of the Biolog data indicated that cation exchange capacity and bicarbonate-extractable K were significantly correlated with the variation in Biolog substrate utilization patterns.

Role of big data in the early detection of Ebola and other emerging infectious diseases

The lack of adequate disease surveillance systems in Ebola-affected areas has both reduced the ability to respond locally and has increased global risk. There is a need to improve disease surveillance in vulnerable regions, and digital surveillance could present a viable approach.

Floods and property values: A hedonic property and efficiency analysis

This study investigates the impact floods on property values using the hedonic property price approach and other relevant econometric techniques. The main objectives of this research are to investigate (1) the impact of the release of flood-risk information and the actual floods on property values (2) the temporal behaviour of negative impacts (3) the property submarket behaviour (4) the behaviour of flood affected vs flood non-affected areas and (5) the property market efficiency. The thesis expanded on the existing literature on natural disasters by applying a range of econometric techniques. Findings of this research are useful for policy decision-making which is aimed at minimizing the negative impacts of natural hazards on property markets. The thesis findings also provide a better framework for decision-making in the property insurance market. The methodological improvements that are made in the thesis will be invaluable for analysing the impacts of natural hazards elsewhere.

Fusarium graminearum and Fusarium pseudograminearum caused the 2010 head blight epidemics in Australia

Wheat crops in southeast Queensland (Qld) and northern New South Wales (NSW) were infected with fusarium head blight (FHB)-like symptoms during the 201011 wheat growing season. Wheat crops in this region were surveyed at soft dough or early maturity stage to determine the distribution, severity, aetiology and toxigenicity of FHB. FHB was widespread on bread wheat and durum, and Fusarium graminearum and/or F.pseudograminearum were diagnosed from 42 of the 44 sites using species-specific PCR primers directly on spikelets or from monoconidial cultures obtained from spikelets. Stem base browning due to crown rot (CR) was also evident in some samples from both states. The overall FHB and CR severity was higher for NSW than Qld. Deoxynivalenol (DON) concentration of immature grains was more than 1 mg kg-1 in samples from 11 Qld and 14 NSW sites, but only 13 of 498 mature grain samples sourced from the affected areas had more than 1 mg kg-1 DON. DON concentration in straw also exceeded 1 mg kg-1 in eight Qld and all but one NSW sites but this was not linked to DON concentration of immature grains. The proportion of spikelets with positive diagnosis for F.graminearum and/or F.pseudograminearum and weather-related factors influenced DON levels in immature grains. The average monthly rainfall for AugustNovember during crop anthesis and maturation exceeded the long-term monthly average by 10150%. Weather played a critical role in FHB epidemics for Qld sites but this was not apparent for the NSW sites, as weather was generally favourable at all sites.

Impact of wildfires and floods on property values: A before and after analysis

One of the most evident casualties of a natural disaster is the property market. The private and social costs from such events run into millions of dollars. In this paper, we use a unique dataset to examine the impact on residential house prices affected by natural disasters using a hedonic property (HP) values approach. For this purpose, we use data before and after a wildfire and floods from Rockhampton in central Queensland, Australia. The data is unique because one suburb was affected by wildfires and another was affected by floods. For the analysis, three suburbs namely Frenchville, Park Avenue and Norman Gardens are used. Frenchville was significantly affected by wildfires in the latter part of 2009 and to a lesser extent in 2012, while Park Avenue was affected by floods at the end of 2010, January 2011–2013. Norman Gardens, which was relatively unaffected, is used as a control site. This enables us to examine the before and after effects on property values in the three suburbs. The results confirm that soon after a natural disaster property prices in affected areas decrease even though the large majority of individual houses remain unaffected. Furthermore, the results indicate that the largely unaffected suburb may gain immediately after a natural disaster but this gain may disappear if natural disasters continue to occur in the area/region due to the stigma created. The results have several important policy decision and welfare implications which are briefly discussed in the paper.

The 18 September 2011, North Sikkim earthquake

The 18 September 2011, magnitude Mw 6.9 earthquake close to the Nepal-Sikkim border caused significant damage due to ground shaking and caused several landslides. Observations from the post-earthquake surveys in the affected areas within Sikkim suggest that the poorly engineered, multistoried structures were relatively more impacted. Those located on alluvial terraces were also affected. The morphology of the region is prone to landslides and the possibility for their increased intensity during the forthcoming monsoon need to be considered seriously. From the seismotectonic perspective, the mid-crustal focal depth of the North Sikkim earthquake reflects the ongoing deformation of the subducting Indian plate.

Modelagem hidrológica da bacia hidrográfica do rio Bengalas, Nova Friburgo, RJ, utilizando o potencial de geotecnologias na definição de áreas de risco de inundação.

A presente pesquisa concentra-se no estudo hidrológico utilizando o potencial das geotecnologias na modelagem do escoamento na bacia do rio Bengalas, cujo rio principal de mesmo nome, corta o município de Nova Friburgo, RJ, no sentido Sul-Norte. Esse município, um dos mais importantes da região serrana, sofre frequentemente com inundações e deslizamentos, onde, dados históricos e acontecimentos recentes mostram que a ocupação inadequada de encostas e calhas dos rios são as áreas destacada e negativamente afetadas. A metodologia tem suporte no uso de um SIG, extraindo informações, que por sua vez, serão entrada de dados na fase de modelagem, e reforçando a apresentação dos resultados das simulações através de mapas. Ela está divida basicamente em três etapas: "SIG", "Modelagem" e "Suporte à Tomada de Decisão/Simulação". Esse primeiro estudo permitiu compor um banco de dados geográfico com as características fisiográficas da bacia; a seleção criteriosa de uma modelagem matemática e encadeamento de seus parâmetros com os componentes do ciclo hidrológico; realizar a calibração do modelo de transformação chuva-vazão, Soil Conservation Service (CN); e simular a passagem dos volumes gerados pela precipitação efetiva na calha do rio Bengalas, com o objetivo de identificar e analisar as áreas suscetíveis a inundações na porção central da cidade de Nova Friburgo. Modelagem dessa natureza vem sendo empregada, principalmente, no gerenciamento de recursos hídricos, onde a tomada de decisões embasada nos resultados de simulações computacionais, contribuem para evitar prejuízos materiais e financeiros, e ainda, perdas de vidas humanas em áreas de risco, neste caso, aquelas suscetíveis a inundações. Analisando os resultados encontrados temos que a área suscetível à inundação para uma chuva com tempo de recorrência de 50 anos, o mais crítico estudado, seja de aproximadamente 1,0 km, distribuídos nos seus 8,5km na região central de Nova Friburgo-RJ, sendo está, ora delimitada, prioritariamente edificada.

Aspects of phosphorus pollution from aquaculture

Phosphorus is an essential element for living organisms and exists in waterbodies as dissolved and particulate forms. Phosphorus is required for optimum growth, feed efficiency, bone development and maintenance of acid-base regulation in fish. The presence of high concentration of phosphates in water may indicate presence of pollution as it may accelerate plant growth and disrupt the aquatic ecosystem thereby benefiting certain species and altering species diversity in affected areas. Eutrophication of waterbodies is often correlated with the phosphorus loading into the environment and aquaculture has been identified as one of the sources of phosphorus pollution. Details of the impacts of eutrophication is given in Bernhardt (1981). Phosphorus must be provided in fish feed because of its low concentration in water. Studies made in Europe and Northern America have revealed a phosphorus surplus in most commercial feeds which is above actual requirements; or is supplied in a form which is unavailable to the fish. Surplus phosphorus is excreted, while unavailable phosphorus is passed out in the feces. Discharge of phosphorus from fish farms and hatchery effluents have caused phosphorus pollution in Nordic countries, North America and Europe. This article examines the path of phosphorus pollution, quantification/prediction of phosphorus load from aquaculture and remedial measures.