Classification and regression tree (CART) model to predict pulmonary tuberculosis in hospitalized patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods: Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results: We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions: The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in countries with limited resources.

Classification tree analysis of postal questionnaire data to identify risk of excessive gestational weight gain

OBJECTIVE: overweight/obese weight status during pregnancy increases risk of a range of adverse health outcomes for mother and child. Whereas identification of those who are overweight/obese pre-pregnancy and in early pregnancy is straightforward, prediction of who will experience excessive gestational weight gain (EGWG), and thus be at greater risk of becoming overweight or obese during pregnancy is more challenging. The present study sought to better identify those at risk of EGWG by exploring pre-pregnancy BMI as well as a range of psychosocial risk factors identified as risk factors in prior research. METHODS: 225 pregnant women completed self-reported via postal survey measures of height, weight, and psychosocial variables at 16-18 weeks gestation, and reported their weight again at 32-34 weeks to calculate GWG. Classification and regression tree analysis (CART) was used to find subgroups in the data with increased risk of EGWG based on their pre-pregnancy BMI and psychosocial risk factor scores at Time 1. FINDINGS: CART confirmed that self-reported BMI status was a strong predictor of EGWG risk for women who were overweight/obese pre-pregnancy. Normal weight women with low motivation to maintain a healthy diet and who reported lower levels of partner support were also at considerable risk of EGWG. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: present findings offer support for inclusion of psychosocial measures (in addition to BMI) in early antenatal visits to detect risk of EGWG. However, these findings also underscore the need for further consideration of effect modifiers that place women at increased or decreased risk of EGWG. Proposed additional constructs are discussed to direct further theory-driven research.

Assessing trends in the density of Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus): a comparison of passive acoustic and trawl methods

Using data collected simultaneously from a trawl and a hydrophone, we found that temporal and spatial trends in densities of juvenile Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in the Neuse River estuary in North Carolina can be identified by monitoring their sound production. Multivariate analysis of covariance (MA NCOVA) revealed that catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of Atlantic croaker had a significant relationship with the dependent variables of sound level and peak frequency of Atlantic croaker calls. Tests of between-subject correspondence failed to detect relationships between CPUE and either of the call parameters, but statistical power was low. Williamson’s index of spatial overlap indicated that call detection rate (expressed by a 0–3 calling index) was correlated in time and space with Atlantic croaker CPUE. The correspondence between acoustic parameters and trawl catch rates varied by month and by habitat. In general, the calling index had a higher degree of overlap with this species’ density than did the received sound level of their calls. Classification and regression tree analysis identified calling index as the strongest correlate of CPUE. Passive acoustics has the potential to be an inexpensive means of identifying spatial and temporal trends in abundance for soniferous fish species.

Gender-specific genomic profiling in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with 5-fluorouracil and oxaliplatin

AIMS: Survival and response rates in metastatic colorectal cancer remain poor, despite advances in drug development. There is increasing evidence to suggest that gender-specific differences may contribute to poor clinical outcome. We tested the hypothesis that genomic profiling of metastatic colorectal cancer is dependent on gender.

MATERIALS & METHODS: A total of 152 patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who were treated with oxaliplatin and continuous infusion 5-fluorouracil were genotyped for 21 polymorphisms in 13 cancer-related genes by PCR. Classification and regression tree analysis tested for gender-related association of polymorphisms with overall survival, progression-free survival and tumor response.

RESULTS: Classification and regression tree analysis of all polymorphisms, age and race resulted in gender-specific predictors of overall survival, progression-free survival and tumor response. Polymorphisms in the following genes were associated with gender-specific clinical outcome: estrogen receptor β, EGF receptor, xeroderma pigmentosum group D, voltage-gated sodium channel and phospholipase A2.

CONCLUSION: Genetic profiling to predict the clinical outcome of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer may depend on gender.

Mapping non-suicidal self-injury in adolescence: Development and confirmatory factor analysis of the impulse, self-harm and sucidal ideation questionnaire for adolescents (ISSIQ-A)

Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is the deliberate, self-inflicted destruction of body tissue without suicidal intent and an important clinical phenomenon. Rates of NSSI appear to be disproportionately high in adolescents and young adults, and is a risk factor for suicidal ideation and behavior. The present study reports the psychometric properties of the Impulse, Self-harm and Suicide Ideation Questionnaire for Adolescents (ISSIQ-A), a measure designed to comprehensively assess the impulsivity, NSSI behaviors and suicide ideation. An additional module of this questionnaire assesses the functions of NSSI. Results of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) of the scale on 1722 youths showed items' suitability and confirmed a model of four different dimensions (Impulse, Self-harm, Risk-behavior and Suicide ideation) with good fit and validity. Further analysis showed that youth׳s engagement in self-harm may exert two different functions: to create or alleviate emotional states, and to influence social relationships. Our findings contribute to research and assessment on non-suicidal self-injury, suggesting that the ISSIQ-A is a valid and reliable measure to assess impulse, self-harm and suicidal thoughts, in adolescence.

BrainCheck - a very brief tool to detect incipient cognitive decline: optimized case-finding combining patient- and informant-based data.

INTRODUCTION Optimal identification of subtle cognitive impairment in the primary care setting requires a very brief tool combining (a) patients' subjective impairments, (b) cognitive testing, and (c) information from informants. The present study developed a new, very quick and easily administered case-finding tool combining these assessments ('BrainCheck') and tested the feasibility and validity of this instrument in two independent studies. METHODS We developed a case-finding tool comprised of patient-directed (a) questions about memory and depression and (b) clock drawing, and (c) the informant-directed 7-item version of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Feasibility study: 52 general practitioners rated the feasibility and acceptance of the patient-directed tool. Validation study: An independent group of 288 Memory Clinic patients (mean ± SD age = 76.6 ± 7.9, education = 12.0 ± 2.6; 53.8% female) with diagnoses of mild cognitive impairment (n = 80), probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 185), or major depression (n = 23) and 126 demographically matched, cognitively healthy volunteer participants (age = 75.2 ± 8.8, education = 12.5 ± 2.7; 40% female) partook. All patient and healthy control participants were administered the patient-directed tool, and informants of 113 patient and 70 healthy control participants completed the very short IQCODE. RESULTS Feasibility study: General practitioners rated the patient-directed tool as highly feasible and acceptable. Validation study: A Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated an algorithm to categorize patient-directed data which resulted in a correct classification rate (CCR) of 81.2% (sensitivity = 83.0%, specificity = 79.4%). Critically, the CCR of the combined patient- and informant-directed instruments (BrainCheck) reached nearly 90% (that is 89.4%; sensitivity = 97.4%, specificity = 81.6%). CONCLUSION A new and very brief instrument for general practitioners, 'BrainCheck', combined three sources of information deemed critical for effective case-finding (that is, patients' subject impairments, cognitive testing, informant information) and resulted in a nearly 90% CCR. Thus, it provides a very efficient and valid tool to aid general practitioners in deciding whether patients with suspected cognitive impairments should be further evaluated or not ('watchful waiting').

Genetic variations in the PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway and bladder cancer susceptibility and clinical outcomes

Bladder cancer is the fourth most common cancer in men in the United States. There is compelling evidence supporting that genetic variations contribute to the risk and outcomes of bladder cancer. The PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway is a major cellular pathway involved in proliferation, invasion, inflammation, tumorigenesis, and drug response. Somatic aberrations of PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway are frequent events in several cancers including bladder cancer; however, no studies have investigated the role of germline genetic variations in this pathway in bladder cancer. In this project, we used a large case control study to evaluate the associations of a comprehensive catalogue of SNPs in this pathway with bladder cancer risk and outcomes. Three SNPs in RAPTOR were significantly associated with susceptibility: rs11653499 (OR: 1.79, 95%CI: 1.24–2.60), rs7211818 (OR: 2.13, 95%CI: 1.35–3.36), and rs7212142 (OR: 1.57, 95%CI: 1.19–2.07). Two haplotypes constructed from these 3 SNPs were also associated with bladder cancer risk. In combined analysis, a significant trend was observed for increased risk with an increase in the number of unfavorable genotypes (P for trend<0.001). Classification and regression tree analysis identified potential gene-environment interactions between RPS6KA5 rs11653499 and smoking. In superficial bladder cancer, we found that PTEN rs1234219 and rs11202600, TSC1 rs7040593, RAPTOR rs901065, and PIK3R1 rs251404 were significantly associated with recurrence in patients receiving BCG. In muscle invasive and metastatic bladder cancer, AKT2 rs3730050, PIK3R1 rs10515074, and RAPTOR rs9906827 were associated with survival. Survival tree analysis revealed potential gene-gene interactions: patients carrying the unfavorable genotypes of PTEN rs1234219 and TSC1 rs704059 exhibited a 5.24-fold (95% CI: 2.44–11.24) increased risk of recurrence. In combined analysis, with the increasing number of unfavorable genotypes, there was a significant trend of higher risk of recurrence and death (P for trend<0.001) in Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, and shorter event (recurrence and death) free survival in Kaplan-Meier estimates (P log rank<0.001). This study strongly suggests that genetic variations in PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway play an important role in bladder cancer development. The identified SNPs, if validated in further studies, may become valuable biomarkers in assessing an individual's cancer risk, predicting prognosis and treatment response, and facilitating physicians to make individualized treatment decisions. ^