The Double Pareto-Lognormal Distribution and its applications in actuarial science and finance

Le but de ce mémoire de maîtrise est de décrire les propriétés de la loi double Pareto-lognormale, de montrer comment on peut introduire des variables explicatives dans le modèle et de présenter son large potentiel d'applications dans le domaine de la science actuarielle et de la finance. Tout d'abord, nous donnons la définition de la loi double Pareto-lognormale et présentons certaines de ses propriétés basées sur les travaux de Reed et Jorgensen (2004). Les paramètres peuvent être estimés en utilisant la méthode des moments ou le maximum de vraisemblance. Ensuite, nous ajoutons une variable explicative à notre modèle. La procédure d'estimation des paramètres de ce mo-\\dèle est également discutée. Troisièmement, des applications numériques de notre modèle sont illustrées et quelques tests statistiques utiles sont effectués.

The elements of actuarial science,

Mode of access: Internet.

Statistics as a basis for discrimination in the insurance business

The European Court of Justice has held that as from 21 December 2012 insurers may no longer charge men and women differently on the basis of scientific evidence that is statistically linked to their sex, effectively prohibiting the use of sex as a factor in the calculation of premiums and benefits for the purposes of insurance and related financial services throughout the European Union. This ruling marks a sharp turn away from the traditional view that insurers should be allowed to apply just about any risk assessment criterion, so long as it is sustained by the findings of actuarial science. The naïveté behind the assumption that insurers’ recourse to statistical data and probabilistic analysis, given their scientific nature, would suffice to keep them out of harm’s way was exposed. In this article I look at the flaws of this assumption and question whether this judicial decision, whilst constituting a most welcome landmark in the pursuit of equality between men and women, has nonetheless gone too far by saying too little on the million dollar question of what separates admissible criteria of differentiation from inadmissible forms of discrimination.

Some bivariate life time models in discrete time"

The term reliability of an equipment or device is often meant to indicate the probability that it carries out the functions expected of it adequately or without failure and within specified performance limits at a given age for a desired mission time when put to use under the designated application and operating environmental stress. A broad classification of the approaches employed in relation to reliability studies can be made as probabilistic and deterministic, where the main interest in the former is to device tools and methods to identify the random mechanism governing the failure process through a proper statistical frame work, while the latter addresses the question of finding the causes of failure and steps to reduce individual failures thereby enhancing reliability. In the probabilistic attitude to which the present study subscribes to, the concept of life distribution, a mathematical idealisation that describes the failure times, is fundamental and a basic question a reliability analyst has to settle is the form of the life distribution. It is for no other reason that a major share of the literature on the mathematical theory of reliability is focussed on methods of arriving at reasonable models of failure times and in showing the failure patterns that induce such models. The application of the methodology of life time distributions is not confined to the assesment of endurance of equipments and systems only, but ranges over a wide variety of scientific investigations where the word life time may not refer to the length of life in the literal sense, but can be concieved in its most general form as a non-negative random variable. Thus the tools developed in connection with modelling life time data have found applications in other areas of research such as actuarial science, engineering, biomedical sciences, economics, extreme value theory etc.

Quantile based stop-loss transform and its applications

Partial moments are extensively used in actuarial science for the analysis of risks. Since the first order partial moments provide the expected loss in a stop-loss treaty with infinite cover as a function of priority, it is referred as the stop-loss transform. In the present work, we discuss distributional and geometric properties of the first and second order partial moments defined in terms of quantile function. Relationships of the scaled stop-loss transform curve with the Lorenz, Gini, Bonferroni and Leinkuhler curves are developed

Bounding Standard Gaussian Tail Probabilities

We review various inequalities for Mills' ratio (1 - Φ)= Ø, where Ø and Φ denote the standard Gaussian density and distribution function, respectively. Elementary considerations involving finite continued fractions lead to a general approximation scheme which implies and refines several known bounds.

The Impact of the IRS Retirement Option Relative Value

This study evaluates the effects of the new Government regulations in regards to the relative value notification of retirement plan options. It looks at how these new regulations will affect retirement plan option utilization and how retirement plan providers will change options in order to minimize risk.

Cultura organizacional de cursos de ciências contábeis: um estudo em duas universidades públicas

O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi compreender o atual estágio da Cultura Organizacional Acadêmica (COA) em duas Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES) brasileiras, visando identificar possíveis relações entre a cultura e os resultados decorrentes do desempenho dessas IES. A revisão da literatura contemplou as principais teorias sobre cultura organizacional (CO), principalmente as abordagens de Schein (2009), Denison et al. (2012) e Hofstede (2003), além de referenciais empíricos de pesquisadores que se basearam nas abordagens desses autores. A metodologia utilizada teve predomínio qualitativo, com base em etnografia, elementos da observação participante e uso de entrevistas, tanto em profundidade quanto semiestruturadas, que foram gravadas para posterior transcrição e edição. Para o tratamento dos conteúdos das entrevistas, utilizou-se a técnica do Discurso do Sujeito Coletivo (DSC) de Fernando Lefevre e Ana Lefevre (2012), com o emprego do software Qualiquantisoft. O campo empírico abrangeu dois cursos de Ciências Contábeis de duas universidades públicas estaduais, contatadas por acessibilidade. Estes cursos foram o do Departamento de Contabilidade e Atuária da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da Universidade de São Paulo [FEA/USP] e o do Departamento de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas da Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, na Bahia [DCIS/UEFS]. Foram entrevistados 10 docentes do curso da FEA/USP e oito docentes do curso do DCIS/UEFS. Também foi aplicado um questionário para 122 alunos do curso da FEA/USP e 84 alunos do curso do DCIS/UEFS. Os resultados principais são que o atual estágio da COA nos dois cursos das duas IES apresenta-se em polos diametralmente opostos, ou seja, há força na COA do curso da USP, que se reflete na responsabilidade de manter, no presente, os padrões alcançados no passado, e buscar aumentar essa alta referência e visibilidade do curso no país e na América Latina, com orientação estratégica para internacionalização. Em contrapartida, a situação do curso da UEFS é oposta, na qual, de acordo com seus docentes, ele atravessa um período de queda na sua COA, a qual se mantém basicamente adormecida frente às mudanças do ambiente externo, que se reflete em queda dos níveis de qualidade do curso e dos níveis de motivação dos alunos e docentes. Em síntese, os resultados decorrentes do desempenho do curso têm forte dependência da força e solidez de sua COA, materializada na responsabilidade, qualificação e empenho de seus membros (docentes e gestores).

Pensions : report on the financial condition of the state retirement systems

Examines the financial status of the various public employee retirement systems in Illinois.

An asymptotic test for the Conditional Value-at-Risk

Conditional Value-at-Risk (equivalent to the Expected Shortfall, Tail Value-at-Risk and Tail Conditional Expectation in the case of continuous probability distributions) is an increasingly popular risk measure in the fields of actuarial science, banking and finance, and arguably a more suitable alternative to the currently widespread Value-at-Risk. In my paper, I present a brief literature survey, and propose a statistical test of the location of the CVaR, which may be applied by practising actuaries to test whether CVaR-based capital levels are in line with observed data. Finally, I conclude with numerical experiments and some questions for future research.

The MOOC Dashboard: Visualising MOOC data for everyone

Abstract Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) generate enormous amounts of data. The University of Southampton has run and is running dozens of MOOC instances. The vast amount of data resulting from our MOOCs can provide highly valuable information to all parties involved in the creation and delivery of these courses. However, analysing and visualising such data is a task that not all educators have the time or skills to undertake. The recently developed MOOC Dashboard is a tool aimed at bridging such a gap: it provides reports and visualisations based on the data generated by learners in MOOCs. Speakers Manuel Leon is currently a Lecturer in Online Teaching and Learning in the Institute for Learning Innovation and Development (ILIaD). Adriana Wilde is a Teaching Fellow in Electronics and Computer Science, with research interests in MOOCs and Learning Analytics. Darron Tang (4th Year BEng Computer Science) and Jasmine Cheng (BSc Mathematics & Actuarial Science and starting MSc Data Science shortly) have been working as interns over this Summer (2016) as have been developing the MOOC Dashboard.

Analysis of the claims data of a life insurance portfolio

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais