A comparative analysis of accounting-based valuation models

We empirically compare the reliability of the dividend (DIV) model, the residual income valuation (CT, GLS) model, and the abnormal earnings growth (OJ) model. We find that valuation estimates from the OJ model are generally more reliable than those from the other three models, because the residual income valuation model anchored by book value gets off to a poor start when compared with the OJ model led by capitalized next-year earnings. We adopt a 34-year sample covering from 1985 to 2013 to compare the reliability of valuation estimates via their means of absolute pricing errors (MAPE) and corresponding t statistics. We further use the switching regression of Barrios and Blanco to show that the average probability of OJ valuation estimates is greater in explaining stock prices than the DIV, CT, and GLS models. In addition, our finding that the OJ model yields more reliable estimates is robust to analysts-based and model-based earnings measures.

A fractional cointegration approach to testing the Ohlson accounting based valuation model

We examine the long-run relationship between market value, book value, and residual income in the Ohlson (Contemp Acc Res 11(2):661-687, 1995) model. In particular, we test if market value is cointegrated with book value and residual income in light of their non-stationary behaviors. We find that cointegration applies to only 51 % of the sample firms, casting doubt that book value and residual income alone are adequate in tracking variations in market value, yet we find that market value is fractional cointegrated with book value and residual income for 89 % of the sample firms. This implies that the long-run relationship follows a slow but mean-reverting process. Our results therefore support the Ohlson model. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

A Simple Accounting-based Valuation Model for the Debt Tax Shield

This paper describes a simple way to integrate the debt tax shield into an accounting-based valuation model. The market value of equity is determined by forecasting residual operating income, which is calculated by charging operating income for the operating assets at a required return that accounts for the tax benefit that comes from borrowing to raise cash for the operations. The model assumes that the firm maintains a deterministic financial leverage ratio, which tends to converge quickly to typical steady-state levels over time. From a practical point of view, this characteristic is of particular help, because it allows a continuing value calculation at the end of a short forecast period.

Caracterización de la relación estratégica comunitaria y la salud financiera en empresas de mercados emergentes

El presente proyecto, se planteó una necesidad clara por satisfacer. Las organizaciones hoy en día, necesitan nuevas herramientas que permitan predecir y minimizar riesgos de mercado, con el fin de mejorar su desempeño, su competitividad, su salud financiera y sobre todo, ser más perdurables en ambientes caóticos e inestables. Se planteó un objetivo claro a cumplir, cómo pueden las empresas mejorar su relación con los consumidores y sus comunidades, con el fin de, identificar factores que impacten positivamente la salud financiera de las organizaciones. Es pertinente, el estudio de la salud financiera en empresas de mercados emergentes y los impactos en la implementación de diferentes estrategias comunitarias para establecer métodos que minimicen los riesgos y mejoren el desempeño empresarial. Para cumplir la propuesta planteada, fue necesario abarcar diferentes fuentes de información relacionadas a temas financieros y de mercadeo. Se buscó, tomar ejemplos, teorías y modelos ya implementados en estudios similares y con objetivos en común, relacionados a: uso de indicadores financieros, valoración corporativa, valoración de los estados financieros, diagnóstico de la salud financiera, el uso de estrategias de mercadeo relacional, la fidelización de clientes y el uso de estrategias comunitarias. Además, fue necesaria la búsqueda de empresas en los mercados emergentes de Brasil y Colombia, que representan el tipo de muestra deseada para desarrollar el estudio y sus objetivos. A dicha empresa, se le realizará una serie de estudios para poder satisfacer las necesidades planteadas en el presente proyecto. Por medio de dichos estudios, se pretende identificar relaciones en el uso de estrategias comunitarias y sus impactos en la salud financiera de las organizaciones. Es importante, identificar factores de riesgo y de protección para prevenir impactos negativos o potencializar aquellos que beneficien a las empresas. Con lo anterior, será posible obtener pruebas o herramientas que mejoren los procesos de toma de decisiones de alta dirección, la formulación de directrices en estrategia corporativa y definición de ventajas competitivas de la organización. Se pretende, brindar una aproximación a nuevos conocimientos y enfoques de estudios, expuestos en el proyecto, para mejorar la ciencia de la gestión, el desempeño y la perdurabilidad empresarial en mercados emergentes. El proyecto, tomó como fuente de estudio, el banco Brasileño Itau Unibanco Holding S.A. que representa de la mejor forma, el tipo de muestra necesaria para poder cumplir con los objetivos planteados. El banco, tienen presencia en la región bastante importante y sigue con metas de expansión e internacionalización. Además de eso, es considerado el banco privado más grande de Brasil, el cuarto mayor de Chile y la quinta institución financiera de Colombia. Ha sido ganador, de varios galardones y reconocimiento por sus buenas practicas, su enfoque hacia la sostenibilidad, la sociedad, el buen ambiente y los derechos. El proyecto, culminó demostrando que efectivamente el uso de estrategias comunitarias tiene un impacto importante en la imagen corporativa, la reputación y como consecuencia, en la estabilidad financiera. Se evidenció, también, el desempeño del banco Itau Unibanco Holding del año 2013, donde, se aplicaron diferentes estudios, indicadores y demás, que demostraron un buen resultado, y por ende, una fuerte posición y salud financiera. Adicionalmente, se mostraron diferentes tipos de estrategias que el banco usa hoy en día dirigidas a las comunidades, evidenciando ejemplos en Brasil y en Chile y describiendo los proyectos, los programas o las estrategias que el banco usa para aportar a la comunidad, ser parte de la sociedad, mejorar su imagen, aumentar su reputación, profundizar en la caracterización de las necesidades de sus consumidores y revertir todo lo anterior en mejores soluciones, mejores productos y mejores formas de relacionamiento. Dicha integración en el ambiente y en el entorno de sus consumidores impacta de buena manera los resultados financieros y permite que la posición en el mercado se mantenga fuerte y firme.

Decision-usefulness of ideal cost- and ideal value accounting for valuation and stewardship

This paper contrasts the decision-usefulness of prototype accounting regimes based on perfect accounting for value, i.e. ideal value accounting (IVA), and perfect matching of cost, i.e. ideal cost accounting (ICA). The regimes are analyzed in the context of a firm with overlapping capacity investments where projects earn excess returns and residual income is utilized as performance indicator. Provided that IVA and ICA systematically differ based on the criterion of unconditional conservatism, we assess their respective decision-usefulness for different valuation- and stewardship-scenarios. Assuming that addressees solely observe current accounting data of the firm, ICA provides information which is useful for valuation and stewardship without reservation whereas IVA entails problems under specific assumptions.

Effective employment-based training models for childcare workers

Childcare workers play a significant role in the learning and development of children in their care. This has major implications for the training of workers. Under new reforms of the childcare industry the Australian government now requires all workers to obtain qualifications from a vocational education and training provider (eg. Technical and Further Education) or university. Effective models of employment-based training are critical to provide training to highly competent workers. This paper presents findings from a study that examined current and emerging models of employment-based training in the childcare sector, particularly at the Diploma level. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of 16 participants who represented childcare directors, employers, and workers located in childcare services in urban, regional and remote locations in the State of Queensland. The study proposes a ‘best-fit’ employment-based training approach that is characterised by a compendium of five models instead of a ‘one size fits all’. Issues with successful implementation of the EBT models are also discussed

The efficiency of corpus-based distributional models for literature-based discovery on large data sets

This paper evaluates the efficiency of a number of popular corpus-based distributional models in performing discovery on very large document sets, including online collections. Literature-based discovery is the process of identifying previously unknown connections from text, often published literature, that could lead to the development of new techniques or technologies. Literature-based discovery has attracted growing research interest ever since Swanson's serendipitous discovery of the therapeutic effects of fish oil on Raynaud's disease in 1986. The successful application of distributional models in automating the identification of indirect associations underpinning literature-based discovery has been heavily demonstrated in the medical domain. However, we wish to investigate the computational complexity of distributional models for literature-based discovery on much larger document collections, as they may provide computationally tractable solutions to tasks including, predicting future disruptive innovations. In this paper we perform a computational complexity analysis on four successful corpus-based distributional models to evaluate their fit for such tasks. Our results indicate that corpus-based distributional models that store their representations in fixed dimensions provide superior efficiency on literature-based discovery tasks.

Acceptability-based QoE models for mobile video

Quality of experience (QoE) measures the overall perceived quality of mobile video delivery from subjective user experience and objective system performance. Current QoE computing models have two main limitations: 1) insufficient consideration of the factors influencing QoE, and; 2) limited studies on QoE models for acceptability prediction. In this paper, a set of novel acceptability-based QoE models, denoted as A-QoE, is proposed based on the results of comprehensive user studies on subjective quality acceptance assessments. The models are able to predict users’ acceptability and pleasantness in various mobile video usage scenarios. Statistical regression analysis has been used to build the models with a group of influencing factors as independent predictors, including encoding parameters and bitrate, video content characteristics, and mobile device display resolution. The performance of the proposed A-QoE models has been compared with three well-known objective Video Quality Assessment metrics: PSNR, SSIM and VQM. The proposed A-QoE models have high prediction accuracy and usage flexibility. Future user-centred mobile video delivery systems can benefit from applying the proposed QoE-based management to optimize video coding and quality delivery decisions.

Pattern-based topic models for information filtering

Topic modelling, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), was proposed to generate statistical models to represent multiple topics in a collection of documents, which has been widely utilized in the fields of machine learning and information retrieval, etc. But its effectiveness in information filtering is rarely known. Patterns are always thought to be more representative than single terms for representing documents. In this paper, a novel information filtering model, Pattern-based Topic Model(PBTM) , is proposed to represent the text documents not only using the topic distributions at general level but also using semantic pattern representations at detailed specific level, both of which contribute to the accurate document representation and document relevance ranking. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of PBTM by using the TREC data collection Reuters Corpus Volume 1. The results show that the proposed model achieves outstanding performance.

Integrating the impact of climate into event based failure models for water pipes

This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.

Remaining useful life prediction of rotating equipment using covariate-based hazard models : industry applications

The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.