MARVEL: A System for Recognizing World Locations with Stereo Vision

To use a world model, a mobile robot must be able to determine its own position in the world. To support truly autonomous navigation, I present MARVEL, a system that builds and maintains its own models of world locations and uses these models to recognize its world position from stereo vision input. MARVEL is designed to be robust with respect to input errors and to respond to a gradually changing world by updating its world location models. I present results from real-world tests of the system that demonstrate its reliability. MARVEL fits into a world modeling system under development.

Probabilistic world modelling for distributed team planning

This paper describes an application of decoupled probabilistic world modeling to achieve team planning. The research is based on the principle that tbe action selection mechanism of a member in a robot team cm select am effective action if a global world model is available to all team members. In the real world, the sensors are imprecise, and are individual to each robot, hence providing each robot a partial and unique view about the environment. We address this problem by creating a probabilistic global view on each agent by combining the perceptual information from each robot. This probsbilistie view forms the basis for selecting actions to achieve the team goal in a dynamic environment. Experiments have been carried ont to investigate the effectiveness of this principle using custom-built robots for real world performance, in addition, to extensive simulation results. The results show an improvement in team effectiveness when using probabilistic world modeling based on perception sharing for team planning.

A Terra como Interface: o paradigma do Mapa para o Século XXI

Trabalho de Projecto de Mestrado em Ciências de Comunicação Variante Novos Media e Práticas Web

AMADEUS: advanced manipulation for deep underwater sampling

AMADEUS is a dexterous subsea robot hand incorporating force and slip contact sensing, using fluid filled tentacles for fingers. Hydraulic pressure variations in each of three flexible tubes (bellows) in each finger create a bending moment, and consequent motion or increase in contact force during grasping. Such fingers have inherent passive compliance, no moving parts, and are naturally depth pressure-compensated, making them ideal for reliable use in the deep ocean. In addition to the mechanical design, development of the hand has also considered closed loop finger position and force control, coordinated finger motion for grasping, force and slip sensor development/signal processing, and reactive world modeling/planning for supervisory `blind grasping¿. Initially, the application focus is for marine science tasks, but broader roles in offshore oil and gas, salvage, and military use are foreseen. Phase I of the project is complete, with the construction of a first prototype. Phase I1 is now underway, to deploy the hand from an underwater robot arm, and carry out wet trials with users.

AMADEUS: advanced manipulation for deep underwater sampling

AMADEUS is a dexterous subsea robot hand incorporating force and slip contact sensing, using fluid filled tentacles for fingers. Hydraulic pressure variations in each of three flexible tubes (bellows) in each finger create a bending moment, and consequent motion or increase in contact force during grasping. Such fingers have inherent passive compliance, no moving parts, and are naturally depth pressure-compensated, making them ideal for reliable use in the deep ocean. In addition to the mechanical design, development of the hand has also considered closed loop finger position and force control, coordinated finger motion for grasping, force and slip sensor development/signal processing, and reactive world modeling/planning for supervisory `blind grasping¿. Initially, the application focus is for marine science tasks, but broader roles in offshore oil and gas, salvage, and military use are foreseen. Phase I of the project is complete, with the construction of a first prototype. Phase I1 is now underway, to deploy the hand from an underwater robot arm, and carry out wet trials with users.

Calibration of CES functions for real-world multisectoral modeling

We show how to calibrate CES production and utility functions when indirect taxation affecting inputs and consumption is present. These calibrated functions can then be used in computable general equilibrium models. Taxation modifies the standard calibration procedures since any taxed good has two associated prices and a choice of reference value units has to be made. We also provide an example of computer code to solve the calibration of CES utilities under two alternate normalizations. To our knowledge, this paper fills a methodological gap in the CGE literature.

Using environmental niche modeling to understand biological invasions in a changing world

L'activité humaine affecte particulièrement la biodiversité, qui décline à une vitesse préoccupante. Parmi les facteurs réduisant la biodiversité, on trouve les espèces envahissantes. Symptomatiques d'un monde globalisé où l'échange se fait à l'échelle de la planète, certaines espèces, animales ou végétales, sont introduites, volontairement ou accidentellement par l'activité humaine (par exemple lors des échanges commerciaux ou par les voyageurs). Ainsi, ces espèces atteignent des régions qu'elles n'auraient jamais pu coloniser naturellement. Une fois introduites, l'absence de compétiteur peut les rendre particulièrement nuisibles. Ces nuisances sont plus ou moins directes, allant de problèmes sanitaires (p. ex. les piqûres très aigües des fourmis de feu, originaires d'Amérique du Sud et colonisant à une vitesse fulgurante les USA, l'Australie ou la Chine) à des nuisances sur la biodiversité (p. ex. les ravages de la perche du Nil sur la diversité unique des poissons Cichlidés du Lac Victoria). Il est donc important de pouvoir prévenir de telles introductions. De plus, pour le biologiste, ces espèces représentent une rare occasion de pouvoir comprendre les mécanismes évolutifs et écologiques qui expliquent le succès des envahissantes dans un monde où les équilibres sont bouleversés. Les modèles de niche environnementale sont un outil particulièrement utile dans le cadre de cette problématique. En reliant des observations d'espèces aux conditions environnementales où elles se trouvent, ils peuvent prédire la distribution potentielle des envahissantes, permettant d'anticiper et de mieux limiter leur impact. Toutefois, ils reposent sur des hypothèses pas évidentes à démontrer. L'une d'entre elle étant que la niche d'une espèce reste constante dans le temps, et dans l'espace. Le premier objectif de mon travail est de comparer si la niche d'une espèce envahissante diffère entre sa distribution d'origine native et celle d'origine introduite. En étudiant 50 espèces de plantes et 168 espèces de Mammifères, je démontre que c'est le cas et que par corolaire, il est possible de prédire leurs distributions. La deuxième partie de mon travail consiste à comprendre quelles seront les interactions entre le changement climatiques et les envahissantes, afin d'estimer leur impact sous un climat réchauffé. En étudiant la distribution de 49 espèces de plantes envahissantes, je démontre que les montagnes, régions relativement préservée par ce problème, deviendront bien plus exposées aux risques d'invasions biologiques. J'expose aussi comment les interactions entre l'activité humaine, le réchauffement climatique et les espèces envahissantes menacent la vigne sauvage en Europe et propose des zones géographiques particulièrement adaptée pour sa conservation. Enfin, à une échelle beaucoup plus locale, je montre qu'il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles de niches le long d'une rivière à une échelle extrêmement fine (1 mètre), potentiellement utile pour rationnaliser des mesures de conservations sur le terrain. - Biodiversity is significantly negatively affected by human activity. Invasive species are one of the most important factors causing biodiversity's decline. Intimately linked to the era of global trade, some plant or animal species can be accidentally or casually introduced with human activity (e.g. trade or travel). In this way, these species reach areas they could never reach through natural dispersal. Once naturalized, the lack of competitors can make these species highly noxious. Their effect is more or less direct, from sanitary problems (e.g. the harmful sting of Fire Ants, originating from South America and now spreading throughout USA, China and Australia) or can affect biodiversity (e.g. the Nile perch, devastating the one of the richest hotspot of Cichlid fishes diversity in Lake Victoria). It is thus important to prevent such harmful introductions. Moreover, invasive species represent for biologists one of the rare occasions to understand the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the success of invaders in a world where natural equilibrium is already disturbed. Environmental niche models are particularly useful to tackle this problematic. By relating species observation to the environmental conditions where they occur, they can predict the potential distribution of invasive species, allowing a better anticipation and thus limiting their impact. However, they rely on strong assumption, one of the most important being that the modeled niche remains constant through space and time. The first aim of my thesis is to quantify the difference between the native and the invaded niche. By investigating 50 plant and 168 mammal species, I show that the niche is at least partially conserved, supporting for reliable predictions of invasive' s potential distributions. The second aim of my thesis is to understand the possible interactions between climate change and invasive species, such as to assess their impact under a warmer climate. By studying 49 invasive plant species, I show that mountain areas, which were relatively preserved, will become more suitable for biological invasions. Additionally, I show how interactions between human activity, global warming and invasive species are threatening the wild grapevine in Europe and propose geographical areas particularly adapted for conservation measures. Finally, at a much finer scale where conservation plannings ultimately take place, I show that it is possible to model the niche at very high resolution (1 meter) in an alluvial area allowing better prioritizations for conservation.

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modeling for the world crude oil and natural gas markets

Crude oil and natural gas have been essential energy sources and play a crucial role in the world economy. Changes in energy prices significantly impact economic growth. This study builds an econometric model to illustrate the substitute relation between crude oil and natural gas markets. Additionally, the determination of the oil and natural gas prices are endogenized, assuming imperfect competition to reflect a real market strategy. Our empirical results show that the overall performance of this system is acceptable, and the model can be applied to policy analysis for determining monetary or energy policy by introducing this model to the more comprehensive system.

Modeling the role of fixational eye movements in real-world scenes

Our eyes never remain still. Even when we stare at a fixed point, small involuntary movements take place in our eyes in an imperceptible manner. Researchers agree on the presence of three main contributions to eye movements when we fix the gaze: microsaccades, drifts and tremor. These small movements carry the image across the retina stimulating the photoreceptors and thus avoiding fading. Nowadays it is commonly accepted that these movements can improve the discrimination performance of the retina. In this paper, several retina models with and without fixational eye movements were implemented by mean of RetinaStudio tool to test the feasibility of these models to be incorporated in future neuroprostheses. For this purpose each retina model has been stimulated with natural scene images in two experiments. Results are discussed from the point of view of a neuroprosthesis development.

Cloud condensation nuclei in pristine tropical rainforest air of Amazonia: size-resolved measurements and modeling of atmospheric aerosol composition and CCN activity

Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. We have measured and characterized CCN at water vapor supersaturations in the range of S=0.10-0.82% in pristine tropical rainforest air during the AMAZE-08 campaign in central Amazonia. The effective hygroscopicity parameters describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles varied in the range of kappa approximate to 0.1-0.4 (0.16+/-0.06 arithmetic mean and standard deviation). The overall median value of kappa approximate to 0.15 was by a factor of two lower than the values typically observed for continental aerosols in other regions of the world. Aitken mode particles were less hygroscopic than accumulation mode particles (kappa approximate to 0.1 at D approximate to 50 nm; kappa approximate to 0.2 at D approximate to 200 nm), which is in agreement with earlier hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) studies. The CCN measurement results are consistent with aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) data, showing that the organic mass fraction (f(org)) was on average as high as similar to 90% in the Aitken mode (D <= 100 nm) and decreased with increasing particle diameter in the accumulation mode (similar to 80% at D approximate to 200 nm). The kappa values exhibited a negative linear correlation with f(org) (R(2)=0.81), and extrapolation yielded the following effective hygroscopicity parameters for organic and inorganic particle components: kappa(org)approximate to 0.1 which can be regarded as the effective hygroscopicity of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and kappa(inorg)approximate to 0.6 which is characteristic for ammonium sulfate and related salts. Both the size dependence and the temporal variability of effective particle hygroscopicity could be parameterized as a function of AMS-based organic and inorganic mass fractions (kappa(p)=kappa(org) x f(org)+kappa(inorg) x f(inorg)). The CCN number concentrations predicted with kappa(p) were in fair agreement with the measurement results (similar to 20% average deviation). The median CCN number concentrations at S=0.1-0.82% ranged from N(CCN,0.10)approximate to 35 cm(-3) to N(CCN,0.82)approximate to 160 cm(-3), the median concentration of aerosol particles larger than 30 nm was N(CN,30)approximate to 200 cm(-3), and the corresponding integral CCN efficiencies were in the range of N(CCN,0.10/NCN,30)approximate to 0.1 to N(CCN,0.82/NCN,30)approximate to 0.8. Although the number concentrations and hygroscopicity parameters were much lower in pristine rainforest air, the integral CCN efficiencies observed were similar to those in highly polluted megacity air. Moreover, model calculations of N(CCN,S) assuming an approximate global average value of kappa approximate to 0.3 for continental aerosols led to systematic overpredictions, but the average deviations exceeded similar to 50% only at low water vapor supersaturation (0.1%) and low particle number concentrations (<= 100 cm(-3)). Model calculations assuming aconstant aerosol size distribution led to higher average deviations at all investigated levels of supersaturation: similar to 60% for the campaign average distribution and similar to 1600% for a generic remote continental size distribution. These findings confirm earlier studies suggesting that aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the information and parameterizations presented in this paper should enable efficient description of the CCN properties of pristine tropical rainforest aerosols of Amazonia in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

MODELING SCIENTIFIC AGENTS FOR A BETTER SCIENCE

Science is a fundamental human activity and we trust its results because it has several error-correcting mechanisms. It is subject to experimental tests that are replicated by independent parts. Given the huge amount of information available and the information asymetry between producers and users of knowledge, scientists have to rely on the reports of others. This makes it possible for social effects to influence the scientific community. Here, an Opinion Dynamics agent model is proposed to describe this situation. The influence of Nature through experiments is described as an external field that acts on the experimental agents. We will see that the retirement of old scientists can be fundamental in the acceptance of a new theory. We will also investigate the interplay between social influence and observations. This will allow us to gain insight in the problem of when social effects can have negligible effects in the conclusions of a scientific community and when we should worry about them.

Integrated analysis of cooling water systems: Modeling and experimental validation

Cooling towers are widely used in many industrial and utility plants as a cooling medium, whose thermal performance is of vital importance. Despite the wide interest in cooling tower design, rating and its importance in energy conservation, there are few investigations concerning the integrated analysis of cooling systems. This work presents an approach for the systemic performance analysis of a cooling water system. The approach combines experimental design with mathematical modeling. An experimental investigation was carried out to characterize the mass transfer in the packing of the cooling tower as a function of the liquid and gas flow rates, whose results were within the range of the measurement accuracy. Then, an integrated model was developed that relies on the mass and heat transfer of the cooling tower, as well as on the hydraulic and thermal interactions with a heat exchanger network. The integrated model for the cooling water system was simulated and the temperature results agree with the experimental data of the real operation of the pilot plant. A case study illustrates the interaction in the system and the need for a systemic analysis of cooling water system. The proposed mathematical and experimental analysis should be useful for performance analysis of real-world cooling water systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Viral Load Predicts New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, Independent of CD4 T Lymphocyte Value

Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

A NEUROECONOMIC MODELING OF ATTENTION-DEFICIT/HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER (ADHD)

In this paper we present a new neuroeconomics model for decision-making applied to the Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The model is based on the hypothesis that decision-making is dependent on the evaluation of expected rewards and risks assessed simultaneously in two decision spaces: the personal (PDS) and the interpersonal emotional spaces (IDS). Motivation to act is triggered by necessities identified in PDS or IDS. The adequacy of an action in fulfilling a given necessity is assumed to be dependent on the expected reward and risk evaluated in the decision spaces. Conflict generated by expected reward and risk influences the easiness (cognitive effort) and the future perspective of the decision-making. Finally, the willingness (not) to act is proposed to be a function of the expected reward (or risk), adequacy, easiness and future perspective. The two most frequent clinical forms are ADHD hyperactive (AD/HDhyp) and ADHD inattentive (AD/HDdin). AD/HDhyp behavior is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for short periods of time, low risk evaluation, and short future perspective for decision-making. AD/HDin is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for long periods of time, low risk evaluation, and long future perspective for decision-making.