Studies on the Vertical Structure of Horizontal Wind Variability in the Surface Boundary Layer Over Sriharikota

The present study on the vertical structure of horizontal wind variability in the surface boundary layer over Sriharikota. Based on clock wind speed and direction measuring meteorological tower facility from seven levels in the 100 m layer. The study on wind variability and elliptical approximation of wind hodographs investigated for this tropical coastal station established that Sriharikota is of meso-scale weather entity. Wind variability ratio increases from lower levels to upper levels. In South West monsoon months the station is of high ratio values and it gets affected with meso-scale weather features like thunderstorms. Average total shears are observed greater values than scalar shears. Scalar shears are high in the lowest shear levels compared to upper levels. Semi diurnal types of oscillation in average total shears are found in south west monsoon months. During cyclonic storm passage it is observed that there can be significant difference in mean wind speed from 10 m to 100 m level, but it is not so for peak wind speeds. The variations in wind variability ratio in different months is clearly depicted its strong link to define meso-scale or synoptic –scale forcing domination for this station. Meso-scale forcing is characterized by diurnal wind variability and synoptic- scale forcing by interdiurnal wind variability.

Investigating the potential magnetic origin of wind variability in OB stars

In this thesis, the origin of large-scale structures in hot star winds, believed to be responsible for the presence of discrete absorption components (DACs) in the absorption troughs of ultraviolet resonance lines, is constrained using both observations and numerical simulations. These structures are understood as arising from bright regions on the stellar surface, although their physical cause remains unknown. First, we use high quality circular spectropolarimetric observations of 13 well-studied OB stars to evaluate the potential role of dipolar magnetic fields in producing DACs. We perform longitudinal field measurements and place limits on the field strength using Bayesian inference, assuming that it is dipolar. No magnetic field was detected within this sample. The derived constraints statistically refute any significant dynamical influence from a magnetic dipole on the wind for all of these stars, ruling out such fields as a cause for DACs. Second, we perform numerical simulations using bright spots constrained by broadband optical photometric observations. We calculate hydrodynamical wind models using three sets of spot sizes and strengths. Co-rotating interaction regions are yielded in each model, and radiative transfer shows that the properties of the variations in the UV resonance lines synthesized from these models are consistent with those found in observed UV spectra, establishing the first consistent link between UV spectroscopic line profile variability and photometric variations and thus supporting the bright spot paradigm (BSP). Finally, we develop and apply a phenomenological model to quantify the measurable effects co-rotating bright spots would have on broadband optical photometry and on the profiles of photopheric lines in optical spectra. This model can be used to evaluate the existence of these spots, and, in the event of their detection, characterize them. Furthermore, a tentative spot evolution model is presented. A preliminary analysis of its output, compared to the observed photometric variations of xi Persei, suggests the possible existence of “active longitudes” on the surface of this star. Future work will expand the range of observational diagnostics that can be interpreted within the BSP, and link phenomenology (bright spots) to physical processes (magnetic spots or non-radial pulsations).

Sea ice and wind variability during the Holocene in East Antarctica

A high-resolution continuous record of diatom census counts and diatom specific biomarkers in sediment core NBP0101-JPC24 allows assessment of oceanographic and environmental conditions in eastern Prydz Bay during the deglaciation (11 100-9000 cal yr BP) at decadal timescale. Our study improves previous snapshots investigations based on resin-embedded thin sections and presents a new proxy that compliments the diatom census counts. Our results suggest that the ice sheet retreat over the core site is dated at ~11 100 cal yr BP, setting the onset of local deglaciation and subsequent open marine conditions. The glacial retreat in Prydz Bay is due to global warming initiated at 18 cal ka BP and the regional development of the Prydz Bay cyclonic gyre. Our results further demonstrate that the deglaciation in eastern Prydz Bay can be separated in four phases: the first between 11 100 and 10 900 cal yr BP when the ice shelf was proximal and sea ice was almost perennial; the second and the third phases between 10 900-10 400 cal yr BP and 10 400-9900 cal yr BP, respectively, when the ice shelf retreated and seasonal sea ice cycle consequently developed promoting warmer water to pump into the bay within the gyre, which in turn forced the ice shelf recession and the yearly sea ice cycle establishment; and the fourth between 9900 and 9000 cal yr BP when Holocene condition were set with a recurrent seasonal sea ice cycle and a well established Prydz Bay gyre.

Investigating the potential magnetic origin of wind variability in OB stars

In this thesis, the origin of large-scale structures in hot star winds, believed to be responsible for the presence of discrete absorption components (DACs) in the absorption troughs of ultraviolet resonance lines, is constrained using both observations and numerical simulations. These structures are understood as arising from bright regions on the stellar surface, although their physical cause remains unknown. First, we use high quality circular spectropolarimetric observations of 13 well-studied OB stars to evaluate the potential role of dipolar magnetic fields in producing DACs. We perform longitudinal field measurements and place limits on the field strength using Bayesian inference, assuming that it is dipolar. No magnetic field was detected within this sample. The derived constraints statistically refute any significant dynamical influence from a magnetic dipole on the wind for all of these stars, ruling out such fields as a cause for DACs. Second, we perform numerical simulations using bright spots constrained by broadband optical photometric observations. We calculate hydrodynamical wind models using three sets of spot sizes and strengths. Co-rotating interaction regions are yielded in each model, and radiative transfer shows that the properties of the variations in the UV resonance lines synthesized from these models are consistent with those found in observed UV spectra, establishing the first consistent link between UV spectroscopic line profile variability and photometric variations and thus supporting the bright spot paradigm (BSP). Finally, we develop and apply a phenomenological model to quantify the measurable effects co-rotating bright spots would have on broadband optical photometry and on the profiles of photopheric lines in optical spectra. This model can be used to evaluate the existence of these spots, and, in the event of their detection, characterize them. Furthermore, a tentative spot evolution model is presented. A preliminary analysis of its output, compared to the observed photometric variations of xi Persei, suggests the possible existence of “active longitudes” on the surface of this star. Future work will expand the range of observational diagnostics that can be interpreted within the BSP, and link phenomenology (bright spots) to physical processes (magnetic spots or non-radial pulsations).

Is there any imprint of the wind variability on the Atlantic Water circulation within the Arctic Basin?

The Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Basin is isolated from the atmosphere by the overlaying surface layer, yet observations have revealed that the velocities in this layer exhibit significant variations. Here analysis of a global ocean/sea ice model hindcast, complemented by experiments performed with an idealized process model, is used to investigate what controls the variability of AW circulation, with a focus on the role of wind forcing. The AW circulation carries the imprint of wind variations, both remotely over the Nordic and Barents Seas where they force the AW inflow variability, and locally over the Arctic Basin through the forcing of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre, which modulates and transfers the wind variability to the AW layer. The strong interplay between the circulation within the surface and AW layers suggests that both layers must be considered to understand variability in either.

Exploring the role of reanalysis data in simulating regional wind generation variability over Northern Ireland

As wind generation increases, system impact studies rely on predictions of future generation and effective representation of wind variability. A well-established approach to investigate the impact of wind variability is to simulate generation using observations from 10 m meteorological mast-data. However, there are problems with relying purely on historical wind-speed records or generation histories: mast-data is often incomplete, not sited at a relevant wind generation sites, and recorded at the wrong altitude above ground (usually 10 m), each of which may distort the generation profile. A possible complimentary approach is to use reanalysis data, where data assimilation techniques are combined with state-of-the-art weather forecast models to produce complete gridded wind time-series over an area. Previous investigations of reanalysis datasets have placed an emphasis on comparing reanalysis to meteorological site records whereas this paper compares wind generation simulated using reanalysis data directly against historic wind generation records. Importantly, this comparison is conducted using raw reanalysis data (typical resolution ∼50 km), without relying on a computationally expensive “dynamical downscaling” for a particular target region. Although the raw reanalysis data cannot, by nature of its construction, represent the site-specific effects of sub-gridscale topography, it is nevertheless shown to be comparable to or better than the mast-based simulation in the region considered and it is therefore argued that raw reanalysis data may offer a number of significant advantages as a data source.

Going with the wind: The time for time-of-use tariffs

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Mechanisms for AMOC variability simulated by the NEMO model

We have investigated mechanisms for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability at 26.5° N (other than the Ekman component) that can be related to external forcings, in particular wind variability. Resolution dependence is studied using identical experiments with 1° and 1/4° NEMO model runs over 1960–2010. The analysis shows that much of the variability in the AMOC at 26° N can be related to the wind strength over the North Atlantic, through mechanisms lagged on different timescales. At ~ 1-year lag the January–June difference of mean sea level pressure between high and mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic explains 35–50% of the interannual AMOC variability (with negative correlation between wind strength and AMOC). At longer lead timescales ~ 4 years, strong (weak) winds over the northern North Atlantic (specifically linked to the NAO index) are followed by higher (lower) AMOC transport, but this mechanism only works in the 1/4° model. Analysis of the density correlations suggests an increase (decrease) in deep water formation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to be the cause. Therefore another 30% of the AMOC variability at 26° N can be related to density changes in the top 1000 m in the Labrador and Irminger seas occurring ~ 4 years earlier.

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

Decadal-scale variability in hazardous winds in northern Switzerland since end of the 19th century

The decadal-scale variability in winter hazardous winds in northern Switzerland from 1871 to present is investigated in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR). Independent wind speed measurements taken at Zurich climate station show that the interannual and decadal variability in hazardous winds in northern Switzerland is realistically represented in the 20CR. Both time series exhibit pronounced decadal-scale variability with periods between approximately 36 and 47 years. At these periodicities, the hazardous wind variability in northern Switzerland is positively correlated with the variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation, however the strength and statistical significance of their co-variability varies over time.

Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series.

Tidal and wind influences on circulation in the southern mouth of the Ría de Vigo (NW Iberian Peninsula)

Tidal and wind influences on the velocity field in the Ría de Vigo were assessed using atmospheric data from two meteorological stations located at Bouzas port and on an oceanic buoy off Silleiro Cape along with oceanic data from an ADCP moored in the Ría for a 72-day period. A two-layer circulation pattern was observed. Near-surface and near-bottom currents are primarily influenced by wind (especially remote winds), separated by an intermediate layer dominated by tidal variability. At subtidal frequencies, residual currents are well correlated with wind variability. Remote wind forcing exhibited a markedly high correlation with surface layer currents, indicating the major role played by wind in the long-term upwelling-modulated circulation of the Ría.

Tidal and wind influences on circulation in the southern mouth of the Ría de Vigo (NW Iberian Peninsula)

Tidal and wind influences on the velocity field in the Ría de Vigo were assessed using atmospheric data from two meteorological stations located at Bouzas port and on an oceanic buoy off Silleiro Cape along with oceanic data from an ADCP moored in the Ría for a 72-day period. A two-layer circulation pattern was observed. Near-surface and near-bottom currents are primarily influenced by wind (especially remote winds), separated by an intermediate layer dominated by tidal variability. At subtidal frequencies, residual currents are well correlated with wind variability. Remote wind forcing exhibited a markedly high correlation with surface layer currents, indicating the major role played by wind in the long-term upwelling-modulated circulation of the Ría.

Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

Characterization of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

This work presents a characterization of the surface wind climatology over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). For this objective, an unprecedented observational database has been developed. The database covers a period of 6years (2002–2007) and consists of hourly wind speed and wind direction data recorded at 514 automatic weather stations. Theoriginal observations underwent a quality control process to remove rough errors from the data set. In the first step, the annual and seasonal mean behaviour of the wind field are presented. This analysis shows the high spatial variability of the wind as a result of its interaction with the main orographic features of the IP. In order to simplify the characterization of the wind, a clustering procedure was applied to group the observational sites with similar temporal wind variability. A total of 20 regions are identified. These regions are strongly related to the main landforms of the IP. The wind behaviour of each region, characterized by the wind rose (WR), annual cycle (AC) and wind speed histogram, is explained as the response of each region to the main circulation types (CTs) affecting the IP. Results indicate that the seasonal variability of the synoptic scale is related with intra-annual variability and modulated by local features in the WRs variability. The wind speed distribution not always fit to a unimodal Weibull distribution consequence of interactions at different atmospheric scales. This work contributes to a deeper understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of surface winds. Taken together, the wind database created, the methodology used and the conclusion extracted are a benchmark for future works based on the wind behaviour.