Analysis of the claims data of a life insurance portfolio

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais

Molecular Ordering of Layer-by-Layer Polyelectrolyte Films Studied by Sum-Frequency Vibrational Spectroscopy

The molecular arrangement in organic thin films is crucial for their increasing technological applications. Here, we use vibrational spectroscopy by sum-frequency generation (SFG) to study the ordering of polyelectrolyte layers adsorbed on silica for all steps of layer-by-layer (LbL) self-assembly. In situ measurements during adsorption and rinsing showed that the adsorbed polymer has a disordered conformation and confirmed surface charge overcompensation upon polyelectrolyte adsorption by probing the interfacial electric field. In dry films, the polymer chains acquired a net orientational ordering, which was affected, however, by the adsorption of subsequent layers. Such a detailed characterization may allow the control of LbL film structure and functionality with unprecedented power.

Molecular Ordering in Layer-by-Layer Polyelectrolyte Films Studied by Sum-Frequency Vibrational Spectroscopy: The Effects of Drying Procedures

Sum-Frequency Vibrational Spectroscopy (SFVS) has been used to investigate the effect of nitrogen-flow drying on the molecular ordering of Layer-by-Layer (LbL) films of poly(allylamine hydrochloride) (PAH) alternated with poly(styrene sulfonate) (PSS). We find that films dried by spontaneous water evaporation are more ordered and homogeneous than films dried by nitrogen flow. The latter are quite inhomogeneous and may have regions with highly disordered polymer conformation. We propose that drying by spontaneous water evaporation reduces the effect of drag by the drying front, while during nitrogen-flow drying the fast evaporation of water ""freezes"" the disordered conformation of adsorbed polyelectrolyte molecules. These findings are important for many applications of LbL films, since device performance usually depends on film morphology and its molecular structure.

Dodecyltrimethylammonium chloride adsorption at the silica/water interface studied by Sum Frequency Generation

La génération des fréquences somme (SFG), une technique spectroscopique spécifique aux interfaces, a été utilisée pour caractériser les changements de la structure macromoléculaire du surfactant cationique chlorure de dodécyltriméthylammonium (DTAC) à l’interface silice/eau dans une plage de pH variant entre 3 et 11. Les conditions expérimentales ont été choisies pour imiter les conditions les plus communes trouvées pendant les opérations de récupération assistée du pétrole. Particulièrement, la silice a été étudiée, car elle est un des composantes des surfaces minérales des réservoirs de grès, et l’adsorption du surfactant a été étudiée avec une force ionique pertinente pour les fluides de la fracturation hydraulique. Les spectres SFG ont présenté des pics détectables avec une amplitude croissante dans la région des étirements des groupes méthylène et méthyle lorsque le pH est diminué jusqu’à 3 ou augmenté jusqu’à 11, ce qui suggère des changements de la structure des agrégats de surfactant à l’interface silice/eau à une concentration de DTAC au-delà de la concentration micellaire critique. De plus, des changements dans l’intensité SFG ont été observés pour le spectre de l’eau quand la concentration de DTAC augmente de 0,2 à 50 mM dans les conditions acide, neutre et alcaline. À pH 3, près du point de charge zéro de la surface de silice, l’excès de charge positive en raison de l’adsorption du surfactant cationique crée un champ électrostatique qui oriente les molécules d’eau à l’interface. À pH 7 et 11, ce qui sont des valeurs au-dessus du point de charge zéro de la surface de silice, le champ électrostatique négatif à l’interface silice/eau diminue par un ordre de grandeur avec l’adsorption du surfactant comme résultat de la compensation de la charge négative à la surface par la charge positive du DTAC. Les résultats SFG ont été corrélés avec des mesures de l’angle de contact et de la tension interfaciale à pH 3, 7 et 11.

Dodecyltrimethylammonium chloride adsorption at the silica/water interface studied by Sum Frequency Generation

La génération des fréquences somme (SFG), une technique spectroscopique spécifique aux interfaces, a été utilisée pour caractériser les changements de la structure macromoléculaire du surfactant cationique chlorure de dodécyltriméthylammonium (DTAC) à l’interface silice/eau dans une plage de pH variant entre 3 et 11. Les conditions expérimentales ont été choisies pour imiter les conditions les plus communes trouvées pendant les opérations de récupération assistée du pétrole. Particulièrement, la silice a été étudiée, car elle est un des composantes des surfaces minérales des réservoirs de grès, et l’adsorption du surfactant a été étudiée avec une force ionique pertinente pour les fluides de la fracturation hydraulique. Les spectres SFG ont présenté des pics détectables avec une amplitude croissante dans la région des étirements des groupes méthylène et méthyle lorsque le pH est diminué jusqu’à 3 ou augmenté jusqu’à 11, ce qui suggère des changements de la structure des agrégats de surfactant à l’interface silice/eau à une concentration de DTAC au-delà de la concentration micellaire critique. De plus, des changements dans l’intensité SFG ont été observés pour le spectre de l’eau quand la concentration de DTAC augmente de 0,2 à 50 mM dans les conditions acide, neutre et alcaline. À pH 3, près du point de charge zéro de la surface de silice, l’excès de charge positive en raison de l’adsorption du surfactant cationique crée un champ électrostatique qui oriente les molécules d’eau à l’interface. À pH 7 et 11, ce qui sont des valeurs au-dessus du point de charge zéro de la surface de silice, le champ électrostatique négatif à l’interface silice/eau diminue par un ordre de grandeur avec l’adsorption du surfactant comme résultat de la compensation de la charge négative à la surface par la charge positive du DTAC. Les résultats SFG ont été corrélés avec des mesures de l’angle de contact et de la tension interfaciale à pH 3, 7 et 11.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Packet scheduling for priority based transmission in energy harvesting sensors

In this paper, we determine packet scheduling policies for efficient power management in Energy Harvesting Sensors (EHS) which have to transmit packets of high and low priorities over a fading channel. We assume that incoming packets are stored in a buffer and the quality of service for a particular type of message is determined by the expected waiting time of packets of that type of message. The sensors are constrained to work with the energy that they garner from the environment. We derive transmit policies which minimize the sum of expected waiting times of the two types of messages, weighted by penalties. First, we show that for schemes with a constant rate of transmission, under a decoupling approximation, a form of truncated channel inversion is optimal. Using this result, we derive optimal solutions that minimize the weighted sum of the waiting times in the different queues.

Wer fischt was? – Gemischte Bodenfischereien und ihre Auswirkungen auf die wichtigsten Nutzfischbestände in der Nordsee

Cod, haddock, whiting, saithe, plaice, sole and Norway lobster are 7 main target species of the demersal mixed fisheries in the North Sea, Skagerrak and Eastern Channel. Gadoids and Norway lobsters are mainly taken in the nor-thern North Sea by towed gears except beam trawls while the flatfish fisheries are conducted in the southern North Sea mainly using beam trawls. Recently, the central North Sea appears less fished by demersal gears. Towed nets including seines and beam trawls equipped with meshes of more than 100 mm resp. more than 80 mm were identified as the main gears effecting the depleted cod and reduced plaice stocks. The saithe sector, using towed nets with meshes of more than110 mm, longlines, gill nets and others, appears to affect the 7 species to a lesser extend. These results support the interim effort limitations by gear types, vessel and month as enforced by the European Commission since 2003. TAC regulations alone are considered inefficient to sustainably harvest stocks by mixed fisheries. A fleet-effort management method is developed estimating the fleets’ effects based on the sum of partial exploitation rates of the species in mixed fisheries weighted by the ratio of the precautionary reference Bpa and the actual SSB size as ecological quality objective. Applying such fleet effort management could result in increased catch possibilities of some stocks by fleets selecting mainly few and non-overexploited stocks while respecting precautionary management constraints in minimum SSB or maximum exploitation rates at the same time.

Nuclear incompressibility in the quasilocal density functional theory

We explore the ability of the recently established quasilocal density functional theory for describing the isoscalar giant monopole resonance. Within this theory we use the scaling approach and perform constrained calculations for obtaining the cubic and inverse energy weighted moments (sum rules) of the RPA strength. The meaning of the sum rule approach in this case is discussed. Numerical calculations are carried out using Gogny forces and an excellent agreement is found with HF+RPA results previously reported in literature. The nuclear matter compression modulus predicted in our model lies in the range 210230 MeV which agrees with earlier findings. The information provided by the sum rule approach in the case of nuclei near the neutron drip line is also discussed.

Dinâmica de correlações no mercado financeiro Bovespa&BMF

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A subpixel edge detector applied to aortic dissection detection

[EN] The aortic dissection is a disease that can cause a deadly situation, even with a correct treatment. It consists in a rupture of a layer of the aortic artery wall, causing a blood flow inside this rupture, called dissection. The aim of this paper is to contribute to its diagnosis, detecting the dissection edges inside the aorta. A subpixel accuracy edge detector based on the hypothesis of partial volume effect is used, where the intensity of an edge pixel is the sum of the contribution of each color weighted by its relative area inside the pixel. The method uses a floating window centred on the edge pixel and computes the edge features. The accuracy of our method is evaluated on synthetic images of different hickness and noise levels, obtaining an edge detection with a maximal mean error lower than 16 percent of a pixel.

Orthogonal gamma-based expansions for volatility option prices under jump-diffusion dynamics

In my work I derive closed-form pricing formulas for volatility based options by suitably approximating the volatility process risk-neutral density function. I exploit and adapt the idea, which stands behind popular techniques already employed in the context of equity options such as Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier expansions, of approximating the underlying process as a sum of some particular polynomials weighted by a kernel, which is typically a Gaussian distribution. I propose instead a Gamma kernel to adapt the methodology to the context of volatility options. VIX vanilla options closed-form pricing formulas are derived and their accuracy is tested for the Heston model (1993) as well as for the jump-diffusion SVJJ model proposed by Duffie et al. (2000).

Estudio de un modelo multicriterio para estudiar la viabilidad de un cultivo energético en la Península Ibérica. Aplicación a la comarca de Navalmoral de la Mata

En el presente estudio se propone una metodología para la evaluación de proyectos de implantación de cultivos energéticos, integrando una serie de factores de interés en un modelo de decisión, basado en un enfoque multicriterio. Mediante este modelo se pretende evaluar tanto los territorios más adecuados para la introducción un cultivo energético, como la especie más apropiada a los condicionantes que presenta el lugar elegido. Para este estudio se ha realizado una selección previa de cuatro especies forestales, cuyas características de crecimiento y producción las hace adecuadas para su aplicación en un proyecto de este tipo. Las cuatro especies escogidas han sido chopo, sauce, eucalipto y paulonia. La metodología propuesta ha consistido primero en un estudio ecológico en el ámbito de la Península Ibérica y Baleares, con el fin de identificar aquellas regiones óptimas para cada una de las cuatro especies estudiadas. En este proceso se han seleccionado una serie de factores climáticos, que vendrán definidos a partir de los condicionantes ecológicos de dichas especies. Posteriormente se ha propuesto un modelo multicriterio, basado en técnicas conocidas y de aplicación sencilla, donde se integran aspectos ambientales, económicos y sociales, que vendrán a completar la información ecológica trabajada previamente. Este modelo incluye la técnica de comparación por pares propuesta por el Dr. Saaty en el año 1980, para la ponderación de los factores o criterios seleccionados. Posteriormente, y tras su valoración, se utiliza la suma lineal ponderada como técnica de decisión final. Una vez definido el modelo, se ha aplicado a una comarca en particular, la comarca agraria de Navalmoral de la Mata. A partir de la información recopilada referente a todos los criterios seleccionados previamente en el modelo, se ha procedido a valorar cada uno de ellos. Con estos valores y tras la ponderación de criterios, se ha aplicado el modelo, para obtener finalmente los territorios dentro de la comarca, y las especies forestales con mayor aptitud para el desarrollo de un proyecto de implantación de cultivos energéticos. ABSTRACT A methodology has been proposed for the evaluation of projects to implement energy crops; this includes a number of factors of interest in a decision model based on a multi-criteria approach. This model is to evaluate both the most suitable territories for introducing an energy crop, as the most appropriate species to the conditions presented by the place chosen For this study has made a preliminary selection of four species, with characteristics of growth and production, what making them suitable for use in a project of this type. The four species selected were poplar, willow, eucalyptus and paulownia. The proposed methodology consists first in an ecological study in the context of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, in order to identify those best regions for each of the four species studied. In this process has selected a series of climatic factors, which will be defined from the ecological conditions of these species. Then we have proposed a multi-criteria model based on known techniques and simple application where are integrated environmental, economic and social aspects, which will complement the ecological information previous. This model includes the technique proposed by Dr. Saaty in 1980, the weighting by pairs of factors or criteria selected. Then, after valuation, the weighted linear sum as final decision technique is used. After defining the model has been applied to a particular region, the agrarian region of Navalmoral de la Mata. From the information collected concerning to the criteria previously selected in the model, we proceeded to value each. With these values and assigned weights, the model has been applied to finally get the territories and forest species with greater aptitude for the development of a project to implement energy crops.

Genetic time-series analysis identifies a major QTL for in vivo alcohol metabolism not predicted by in vitro studies of structural protein polymorphism at the ADH1B or ADH1C loci

After ingestion of a standardized dose of ethanol, alcohol concentrations were assessed, over 3.5 hours from blood (six readings) and breath (10 readings) in a sample of 412 MZ and DZ twins who took part in an Alcohol Challenge Twin Study (ACTS). Nearly all participants were subsequently genotyped on two polymorphic SNPs in the ADH1B and ADH1C loci known to affect in vitro ADH activity. In the DZ pairs, 14 microsatellite markers covering a 20.5 cM region on chromosome 4 that includes the ADH gene family were assessed, Variation in the timed series of autocorrelated blood and breath alcohol readings was studied using a bivariate simplex design. The contribution of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) or QTL's linked to the ADH region was estimated via a mixture of likelihoods weighted by identity-by-descent probabilities. The effects of allelic substitution at the ADH1B and ADH1C loci were estimated in the means part of the model simultaneously with the effects sex and age. There was a major contribution to variance in alcohol metabolism due to a QTL which accounted for about 64% of the additive genetic covariation common to both blood and breath alcohol readings at the first time point. No effects of the ADH1B*47His or ADH1C*349Ile alleles on in vivo metabolism were observed, although these have been shown to have major effects in vitro. This implies that there is a major determinant of variation for in vivo alcohol metabolism in the ADH region that is not accounted for by these polymorphisms. Earlier analyses of these data suggested that alcohol metabolism is related to drinking behavior and imply that this QTL may be protective against alcohol dependence.

Contrast sensitivity for complex and random gratings

This thesis studied the effect of (i) the number of grating components and (ii) parameter randomisation on root-mean-square (r.m.s.) contrast sensitivity and spatial integration. The effectiveness of spatial integration without external spatial noise depended on the number of equally spaced orientation components in the sum of gratings. The critical area marking the saturation of spatial integration was found to decrease when the number of components increased from 1 to 5-6 but increased again at 8-16 components. The critical area behaved similarly as a function of the number of grating components when stimuli consisted of 3, 6 or 16 components with different orientations and/or phases embedded in spatial noise. Spatial integration seemed to depend on the global Fourier structure of the stimulus. Spatial integration was similar for sums of two vertical cosine or sine gratings with various Michelson contrasts in noise. The critical area for a grating sum was found to be a sum of logarithmic critical areas for the component gratings weighted by their relative Michelson contrasts. The human visual system was modelled as a simple image processor where the visual stimuli is first low-pass filtered by the optical modulation transfer function of the human eye and secondly high-pass filtered, up to the spatial cut-off frequency determined by the lowest neural sampling density, by the neural modulation transfer function of the visual pathways. The internal noise is then added before signal interpretation occurs in the brain. The detection is mediated by a local spatially windowed matched filter. The model was extended to include complex stimuli and its applicability to the data was found to be successful. The shape of spatial integration function was similar for non-randomised and randomised simple and complex gratings. However, orientation and/or phase randomised reduced r.m.s contrast sensitivity by a factor of 2. The effect of parameter randomisation on spatial integration was modelled under the assumption that human observers change the observer strategy from cross-correlation (i.e., a matched filter) to auto-correlation detection when uncertainty is introduced to the task. The model described the data accurately.