SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Agriculture, Environmental Incentive Payments, and Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay

Nonpoint sources (NPS) pollution from agriculture is the leading source of water quality impairment in U.S. rivers and streams, and a major contributor to lakes, wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters (U.S. EPA 2016). Using data from a survey of farmers in Maryland, this dissertation examines the effects of a cost sharing policy designed to encourage adoption of conservation practices that reduce NPS pollution in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This watershed is the site of the largest Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) implemented to date, making it an important setting in the U.S. for water quality policy. I study two main questions related to the reduction of NPS pollution from agriculture. First, I examine the issue of additionality of cost sharing payments by estimating the direct effect of cover crop cost sharing on the acres of cover crops, and the indirect effect of cover crop cost sharing on the acres of two other practices: conservation tillage and contour/strip cropping. A two-stage simultaneous equation approach is used to correct for voluntary self-selection into cost sharing programs and account for substitution effects among conservation practices. Quasi-random Halton sequences are employed to solve the system of equations for conservation practice acreage and to minimize the computational burden involved. By considering patterns of agronomic complementarity or substitution among conservation practices (Blum et al., 1997; USDA SARE, 2012), this analysis estimates water quality impacts of the crowding-in or crowding-out of private investment in conservation due to public incentive payments. Second, I connect the econometric behavioral results with model parameters from the EPA’s Chesapeake Bay Program to conduct a policy simulation on water quality effects. I expand the econometric model to also consider the potential loss of vegetative cover due to cropland incentive payments, or slippage (Lichtenberg and Smith-Ramirez, 2011). Econometric results are linked with the Chesapeake Bay Program watershed model to estimate the change in abatement levels and costs for nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment under various behavioral scenarios. Finally, I use inverse sampling weights to derive statewide abatement quantities and costs for each of these pollutants, comparing these with TMDL targets for agriculture in Maryland.

Designation of Co-benefits and Its Implication for Policy: Water Quality versus Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils, March 2005

Designation of Co-benefits and Its Implication for Policy: Water Quality versus Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils, The

Defining ecologically relevant water quality targets for lakes in Europe

1. The implementation of the Water Framework Directive requires EU member states to establish and harmonize ecological status class boundaries for biological quality elements. In this paper, we describe an approach for defining ecological class boundaries that delineates shifts in lake ecosystem functioning and, therefore, provides ecologically meaningful targets for water policy in Europe. 2. We collected an extensive data set of 810 lake-years from nine Central European countries, and we used phytoplankton chlorophyll a, a metric widely used to measure the impact of eutrophication in lakes. Our approach establishes chlorophyll a target values in relation to three significant ecological effects of eutrophication: the decline of aquatic macrophytes, the dominance of potentially harmful cyanobacteria and the major functional switch from a clear water to a turbid state. 3. Ranges of threshold chlorophyll a concentrations are given for the two most common lake types in lowland Central Europe: for moderately deep lakes (mean depth 3–15 m), the greatest ecological shifts occur in the range 10–12 lg L 1 chlorophyll a, and for shallow lakes (<3 m mean depth), in the range 21–23 lg L 1 chlorophyll a. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our study provides class boundaries for determining the ecological status of lakes, which have robust ecological consequences for lake functioning and which, therefore, provide strong and objective targets for sustainable water management in Europe. The results have been endorsed by all participant member states and adopted in the European Commission legislation, marking the first attempt in international water policy to move from physico-chemical quality standards to harmonized ecologically based quality targets.

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

Managing Water Quality in Agricultural Catchments

Until recently, pollution control in rural drainage basins of the UK consisted solely of water treatment at the point of abstraction. However, prevention of agricultural pollution at source is now a realistic option given the possibility of financing the necessary changes in land use through modification of the Common Agricultural Policy. This paper uses a nutrient export coefficient model to examine the cost of land-use change in relation to improvement of water quality. Catchment-wide schemes and local protection measures are considered. Modelling results underline the need for integrated management of entire drainage basins. A wide range of benefits may accrue from land-use change, including enhanced habitats for wildlife as well as better drinking water.

An hydrochemical answer to a legislative demand involving health risk related to water quality

Effluents and surface waters around an area involved with the inking of tissues at Itatiba municipality, São Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically analyzed with the purpose of evaluating the influence on the water quality of the chemicals released, as well to provide answers to legislative requirements related to the São Paulo State Register 997 published on 31 May 1976.

Water Quality Variability in a Bioswell and Concrete Drainage Pipe, Southwest Lincoln, Nebraska

Abstract The goal of this project is to evaluate the effectiveness of bioswells in protecting water quality from urban runoff. The hypothesis tested in this project is that water in bioswells improves water quality. Water quality in both a bioswell and an underground concrete lined ditch, both containing ground and surface water, were tested for certain water quality parameters. These parameters consisted of: Dissolved Oxygen, pH, water temperature, weather temperature, Total Dissolved Solids, Specific Conductivity, Alkalinity, Total Dissolved Carbon, Chemical Oxygen Demand, and depth and width of the sampling site. An additional contaminant that was looked at was motor oil. This was measured by comparing Total Organic Carbon with Chemical Oxygen Demand. A variety of different methods to measure the water quality parameters were utilized. The concrete site had more stable readings, but much higher water temperatures. However, the bioswell water is mainly from surface water runoff, and the underground concrete lined pipe is from underground water, so the two cannot be directly compared. The bioswell had high readings, especially pertaining to Oxygen Demand, Total Organic Carbon, and Specific Conductivity in early test dates. But, these readings improved as they were filtered though the bioswell. As plant activity increased and the weather began to warm up there were more stable readings. It is concluded that bioswells are an effective way to reduce problems associated with urban runoff pertaining to certain water quality parameters.

Minimun Riparian Buffer Width for Maintaining Water Quality and Habitat Along Stevens Creek

ABSTRACT Riparian buffer zones are important sites of biodiversity, sediment trapping, pollutant removal, and hydrologic regulation that have significant implications for both people and wildlife. Urbanization’s influence on and need for adequate water quality increases the need for careful planning in regards to riparian areas. Wildlife are key components in the ecosystem functions of riparian zones and require consideration in peri-urban planning as well. This study reviews relevant literature to determine the recommended minimum riparian buffer width for maintaining water quality and habitat along Stevens Creek in Lincoln, Nebraska. Only sources that listed a specific purpose related to water quality and habitat for their buffer width recommendations were considered. The study found that the baseline buffer width recommended for Stevens Creek that would be adequate for both water quality maintenance and basic habitat is 50 ft (15 m) per side. This number may be modified based on other factors such as slope, soil particle size, adjacent land use, the presence of certain wildlife communities, stream size, and stream order.

Effective Surface Water Quality Policies: A Contrast of Policies in the United States and the European Union

The United States and the European Union each have their own policy approach to protect surface water quality. Both policy approaches are similar in many ways. Both rely heavily on command and control. However, there are differences in the application of the details. Both the U.S. and E.U. began current efforts to protect surface water quality in the 1970s, yet quality continues to less than desired in both places. Both have reduced point source pollutants but have had difficulty controlling non-point source pollutants even though policies have been in place for many decades. The successes and failures of the two policies are studied in this project to determine which aspects of both policies will best protect surface water quality in an increasingly complex future.

Troubled Waters Ahead: An Evaluation of Shoreline Land Use Policies for Water Quality Protection in Renfrew County, Ontario

Increases in the rate and extent of lakeshore development along inland lakes in Ontario are adversely impacting water quality. Despite growing awareness, there is a lack of knowledge about the land use policies and tools in place to protect inland lakes in rural Ontario. This research evaluated official plans for water quality protection policies for inland lakes in the County of Renfrew, Ontario to address this gap. The findings suggest that municipalities implicitly link water quality to land use planning policy and fail to incorporate innovative methods to protect water quality.

Oversight of U.S. progress under the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement : hearing before the Subcommittee on Oversight of Government Management of the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred First Congress, second session, June 13, 1990.

Shipping list no.: 90-646-P.

Troubled Waters Ahead: An Evaluation of Shoreline Land Use Policies for Water Quality Protection in Renfrew County, Ontario

Increases in the rate and extent of lakeshore development along inland lakes in Ontario are adversely impacting water quality. Despite growing awareness, there is a lack of knowledge about the land use policies and tools in place to protect inland lakes in rural Ontario. This research evaluated official plans for water quality protection policies for inland lakes in the County of Renfrew, Ontario to address this gap. The findings suggest that municipalities implicitly link water quality to land use planning policy and fail to incorporate innovative methods to protect water quality.