Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Calibration and sensitivity analysis of a river water quality model under unsteady flow conditions

Water quality models generally require a relatively large number of parameters to define their functional relationships, and since prior information on parameter values is limited, these are commonly defined by fitting the model to observed data. In this paper, the identifiability of water quality parameters and the associated uncertainty in model simulations are investigated. A modification to the water quality model `Quality Simulation Along River Systems' is presented in which an improved flow component is used within the existing water quality model framework. The performance of the model is evaluated in an application to the Bedford Ouse river, UK, using a Monte-Carlo analysis toolbox. The essential framework of the model proved to be sound, and calibration and validation performance was generally good. However some supposedly important water quality parameters associated with algal activity were found to be completely insensitive, and hence non-identifiable, within the model structure, while others (nitrification and sedimentation) had optimum values at or close to zero, indicating that those processes were not detectable from the data set examined. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

User's manual for EXPLORE-I : a river basin water quality model (hydraulic module only) /

Mode of access: Internet.

Applications of hydrodynamic and water quality models to the Sau and Boadella Reservoirs

Applicaciò d'un model de hydrodinàmica i de qualitat de l'aigua als embassaments de Sau i Boadella

Modelling the effects of inflow parameters on lake water quality

A one-dimensional lake water quality model which includes water temperature, phytoplankton, phosphorus as phosphate, nitrogen as ammonia, nitrogen as nitrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations, previously calibrated for Lake Calhoun (USA) is applied to Uokiri Lake (Japan) for the year 1994. The model simulated phytoplankton and nutrient concentrations in the lake from July to November. Most of the water quality parameters are found to be the same as for Lake Calhoun. To predict probable lake water quality deterioration from algal blooming due to increased nutrient influx from river inflow, the model was run for several inflow water conditions. Effects of inflow nutrient concentration, inflow volume, inflow water temperatures are presented separately. The effect of each factor is considered in isolation although in reality more than one factor can change simultaneously. From the results it is clear that inflow nutrient concentration, inflow volume and inflow water temperature show very regular and reasonable impacts on lake water quality.

The determination of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in freshwaters from land use, stock headage and population data: testing of a model for use in conservation and water quality management

1. Nutrient concentrations (particularly N and P) determine the extent to which water bodies are or may become eutrophic. Direct determination of nutrient content on a wide scale is labour intensive but the main sources of N and P are well known. This paper describes and tests an export coefficient model for prediction of total N and total P from: (i) land use, stock headage and human population; (ii) the export rates of N and P from these sources; and (iii) the river discharge. Such a model might be used to forecast the effects of changes in land use in the future and to hindcast past water quality to establish comparative or baseline states for the monitoring of change. 2. The model has been calibrated against observed data for 1988 and validated against sets of observed data for a sequence of earlier years in ten British catchments varying from uplands through rolling, fertile lowlands to the flat topography of East Anglia. 3. The model predicted total N and total P concentrations with high precision (95% of the variance in observed data explained). It has been used in two forms: the first on a specific catchment basis; the second for a larger natural region which contains the catchment with the assumption that all catchments within that region will be similar. Both models gave similar results with little loss of precision in the latter case. This implies that it will be possible to describe the overall pattern of nutrient export in the UK with only a fraction of the effort needed to carry out the calculations for each individual water body. 4. Comparison between land use, stock headage, population numbers and nutrient export for the ten catchments in the pre-war year of 1931, and for 1970 and 1988 show that there has been a substantial loss of rough grazing to fertilized temporary and permanent grasslands, an increase in the hectarage devoted to arable, consistent increases in the stocking of cattle and sheep and a marked movement of humans to these rural catchments. 5. All of these trends have increased the flows of nutrients with more than a doubling of both total N and total P loads during the period. On average in these rural catchments, stock wastes have been the greatest contributors to both N and P exports, with cultivation the next most important source of N and people of P. Ratios of N to P were high in 1931 and remain little changed so that, in these catchments, phosphorus continues to be the nutrient most likely to control algal crops in standing waters supplied by the rivers studied.

Conceptual design of a regional water quality screening model /

"DOE/EV/10154-T1."

Water quality screening model framework for estuaries : preliminary application to Long Island Sound

Mode of access: Internet.

Development of a mathematical and computer model to assess water quality impacts of hazardous compounds from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the Miami River, Florida

The objective of this study was to develop a model to predict transport and fate of gasoline components of environmental concern in the Miami River by mathematically simulating the movement of dissolved benzene, toluene, xylene (BTX), and methyl-tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) occurring from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the river. Computer codes were based on mathematical algorithms that acknowledge the role of advective and dispersive physical phenomena along the river and prevailing phase transformations of BTX and MTBE. Phase transformations included volatilization and settling. ^ The model used a finite-difference scheme of steady-state conditions, with a set of numerical equations that was solved by two numerical methods: Gauss-Seidel and Jacobi iterations. A numerical validation process was conducted by comparing the results from both methods with analytical and numerical reference solutions. Since similar trends were achieved after the numerical validation process, it was concluded that the computer codes algorithmically were correct. The Gauss-Seidel iteration yielded at a faster convergence rate than the Jacobi iteration. Hence, the mathematical code was selected to further develop the computer program and software. The model was then analyzed for its sensitivity. It was found that the model was very sensitive to wind speed but not to sediment settling velocity. ^ A computer software was developed with the model code embedded. The software was provided with two major user-friendly visualized forms, one to interface with the database files and the other to execute and present the graphical and tabulated results. For all predicted concentrations of BTX and MTBE, the maximum concentrations were over an order of magnitude lower than current drinking water standards. It should be pointed out, however, that smaller concentrations than the latter reported standards and values, although not harmful to humans, may be very harmful to organisms of the trophic levels of the Miami River ecosystem and associated waters. This computer model can be used for the rapid assessment and management of the effects of minor gasoline spills on inter-tidal riverine water quality. ^

Image calibration to like-values in mapping shallow water quality from multitemporal data

The applicability of image calibration to like-values in mapping water quality parameters from multitemporal images is explored, Six sets of water samples were collected at satellite overpasses over Moreton Bay, Brisbane, Australia. Analysis of these samples reveals that waters in this shallow bay are mostly TSS-dominated, even though they are occasionally dominated by chlorophyll as well. Three of the images were calibrated to a reference image based on invariant targets. Predictive models constructed from the reference image were applied to estimating total suspended sediment (TSS) and Secchi depth from another image at a discrepancy of around 35 percent. Application of the predictive model for TSS concentration to another image acquired at a time of different water types resulted in a discrepancy of 152 percent. Therefore, image calibration to like-values could be used to reliably map certain water quality parameters from multitemporal TM images so long as the water type under study remains unchanged. This method is limited in that the mapped results could be rather inaccurate if the water type under study has changed considerably. Thus, the approach needs to be refined in shallow water from multitemporal satellite imagery.

Water quality issues in rivers, lakes and reservoirs in Asian countries: an approach to the problems and the methodologies

Water covers over 70% of the Earth's surface, and is vital for all known forms of life. But only 3% of the Earth's water is fresh water, and less than 0.3% of all freshwater is in rivers, lakes, reservoirs and the atmosphere. However, rivers and lakes are an important part of fresh surface water, amounting to about 89%. In this Master Thesis dissertation, the focus is on three types of water bodies – rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and their water quality issues in Asian countries. The surface water quality in a region is largely determined both by the natural processes such as climate or geographic conditions, and the anthropogenic influences such as industrial and agricultural activities or land use conversion. The quality of the water can be affected by pollutants discharge from a specific point through a sewer pipe and also by extensive drainage from agriculture/urban areas and within basin. Hence, water pollutant sources can be divided into two categories: Point source pollution and Non-point source (NPS) pollution. Seasonal variations in precipitation and surface run-off have a strong effect on river discharge and the concentration of pollutants in water bodies. For example, in the rainy season, heavy and persistent rain wash off the ground, the runoff flow increases and may contain various kinds of pollutants and, eventually, enters the water bodies. In some cases, especially in confined water bodies, the quality may be positive related with rainfall in the wet season, because this confined type of fresh water systems allows high dilution of pollutants, decreasing their possible impacts. During the dry season, the quality of water is largely related to industrialization and urbanization pollution. The aim of this study is to identify the most common water quality problems in Asian countries and to enumerate and analyze the methodologies used for assessment of water quality conditions of both rivers and confined water bodies (lakes and reservoirs). Based on the evaluation of a sample of 57 papers, dated between 2000 and 2012, it was found that over the past decade, the water quality of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs in developing countries is being degraded. Water pollution and destruction of aquatic ecosystems have caused massive damage to the functions and integrity of water resources. The most widespread NPS in Asian countries and those which have the greatest spatial impacts are urban runoff and agriculture. Locally, mine waste runoff and rice paddy are serious NPS problems. The most relevant point pollution sources are the effluents from factories, sewage treatment plant, and public or household facilities. It was found that the most used methodology was unquestionably the monitoring activity, used in 49 of analyzed studies, accounting for 86%. Sometimes, data from historical databases were used as well. It can be seen that taking samples from the water body and then carry on laboratory work (chemical analyses) is important because it can give an understanding of the water quality. 6 papers (11%) used a method that combined monitoring data and modeling. 6 papers (11%) just applied a model to estimate the quality of water. Modeling is a useful resource when there is limited budget since some models are of free download and use. In particular, several of used models come from the U.S.A, but they have their own purposes and features, meaning that a careful application of the models to other countries and a critical discussion of the results are crucial. 5 papers (9%) focus on a method combining monitoring data and statistical analysis. When there is a huge data matrix, the researchers need an efficient way of interpretation of the information which is provided by statistics. 3 papers (5%) used a method combining monitoring data, statistical analysis and modeling. These different methods are all valuable to evaluate the water quality. It was also found that the evaluation of water quality was made as well by using other types of sampling different than water itself, and they also provide useful information to understand the condition of the water body. These additional monitoring activities are: Air sampling, sediment sampling, phytoplankton sampling and aquatic animal tissues sampling. Despite considerable progress in developing and applying control regulations to point and NPS pollution, the pollution status of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs in Asian countries is not improving. In fact, this reflects the slow pace of investment in new infrastructure for pollution control and growing population pressures. Water laws or regulations and public involvement in enforcement can play a constructive and indispensable role in environmental protection. In the near future, in order to protect water from further contamination, rapid action is highly needed to control the various kinds of effluents in one region. Environmental remediation and treatment of industrial effluent and municipal wastewaters is essential. It is also important to prevent the direct input of agricultural and mine site runoff. Finally, stricter environmental regulation for water quality is required to support protection and management strategies. It would have been possible to get further information based in the 57 sample of papers. For instance, it would have been interesting to compare the level of concentrations of some pollutants in the diferente Asian countries. However the limit of three months duration for this study prevented further work to take place. In spite of this, the study objectives were achieved: the work provided an overview of the most relevant water quality problems in rivers, lakes and reservoirs in Asian countries, and also listed and analyzed the most common methodologies.

INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN SURFACE WATER QUALITY IN CATCHMENTS WITHIN THE PAMPA BIOME WITH DIFFERENT LAND USE1

The aim of this study was to identify, by multivariate statistical technique, the physic, chemical and biological variables that best characterize the quality of surface waters in two small rural catchments with different land uses (eucalyptus silviculture (SC) vs. pasture and extensive livestock (LC)) located in Rosário do Sul, RS - Brazil. Monitoring was conducted during the months of August 2011 to August 2012 and the following parameters were analyzed: Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, SO42-, Cl-, pH, electrical conductivity, turbidity, alkalinity, suspended and dissolved solids, biochemical oxygen demand , total coliforms, Escherichia coli and temperature, flow and rainfall. Through the use of FA/PCA, it was found that the model best fit to express water quality of in LC that was composed of five factors which account for 83.5% of the total variance, while for SC, four factors accounted for 85.12% of the variance. In LC, the five main factors were, respectively, soluble salts, diffuse pollution, solid, and both anthropogenic and organic factors. In SC, the four factors were namely: soluble salts, mineral, nutritional and diffuse pollution factors. The results of this study showed that by replacing the traditional soil usage (pasture and livestock) with planted forest, diffuse pollution was attenuated but, however, it did not result in major changes in the physical-chemical and biological characteristics of the water. Another point to note is that factorial analysis did not result in a large reduction in the number of variables, once the best model fit occurred with the addition of 15 of 18 analyzed variables (LC) and 17 of 18 analyzed variables (SC).

Geochemistry and water quality of Lake Qarun, Egypt

Water geochemistry is a very important tool for studying the water quality in a given area. Geology and climate are the major natural factors controlling the chemistry of most natural waters. Anthropogenic impacts are the secondary sources of contamination in natural waters. This study presents the first integrative approach to the geochemistry and water quality of surface waters and Lake Qarun in the Fayoum catchment, Egypt. Moreover, geochemical modeling of Lake Qarun was firstly presented. The Nile River is the main source of water to the Fayoum watershed. To investigate the quality and geochemistry of this water, water samples from irrigation canals, drains and Lake Qarun were collected during the period 2010‒2013 from the whole Fayoum drainage basin to address the major processes and factors governing the evolution of water chemistry in the investigation area. About 34 physicochemical quality parameters, including major ions, oxygen isotopes, trace elements, nutrients and microbiological parameters were investigated in the water samples. Multivariable statistical analysis was used to interpret the interrelationship between the different studied parameters. Geochemical modeling of Lake Qarun was carried out using Hardie and Eugster’s evolutionary model and a model simulated by PHREEQC software. The crystallization sequence during evaporation of Lake Qarun brine was also studied using a Jänecke phase diagram involving the system Na‒K‒Mg‒ Cl‒SO4‒H2O. The results show that the chemistry of surface water in the Fayoum catchment evolves from Ca- Mg-HCO3 at the head waters to Ca‒Mg‒Cl‒SO4 and eventually to Na‒Cl downstream and at Lake Qarun. The main processes behind the high levels of Na, SO4 and Cl in downstream waters and in Lake Qarun are dissolution of evaporites from Fayoum soils followed by evapoconcentration. This was confirmed by binary plots between the different ions, Piper plot, Gibb’s plot and δ18O results. The modeled data proved that Lake Qarun brine evolves from drainage waters via an evaporation‒crystallization process. Through the precipitation of calcite and gypsum, the solution should reach the final composition "Na–Mg–SO4–Cl". As simulated by PHREEQC, further evaporation of lake brine can drive halite to precipitate in the final stages of evaporation. Significantly, the crystallization sequence during evaporation of the lake brine at the concentration ponds of the Egyptian Salts and Minerals Company (EMISAL) reflected the findings from both Hardie and Eugster’s evolutionary model and the PHREEQC simulated model. After crystallization of halite at the EMISAL ponds, the crystallization sequence during evaporation of the residual brine (bittern) was investigated using a Jänecke phase diagram at 35 °C. This diagram was more useful than PHREEQC for predicting the evaporation path especially in the case of this highly concentrated brine (bittern). The predicted crystallization path using a Jänecke phase diagram at 35 °C showed that halite, hexahydrite, kainite and kieserite should appear during bittern evaporation. Yet the actual crystallized mineral salts were only halite and hexahydrite. The absence of kainite was due to its metastability while the absence of kieserite was due to opposed relative humidity. The presence of a specific MgSO4.nH2O phase in ancient evaporite deposits can be used as a paleoclimatic indicator. Evaluation of surface water quality for agricultural purposes shows that some irrigation waters and all drainage waters have high salinities and therefore cannot be used for irrigation. Waters from irrigation canals used as a drinking water supply show higher concentrations of Al and suffer from high levels of total coliform (TC), fecal coliform (FC) and fecal streptococcus (FS). These waters cannot be used for drinking or agricultural purposes without treatment, because of their high health risk. Therefore it is crucial that environmental protection agencies and the media increase public awareness of this issue, especially in rural areas.

Studies On The Dynamics And Water Quality Of The Muvattupuzha River In Relation To Effluent Discharge

The present study aims at the investigation of the 1ysico—chemical features of a tropical tidal river viz. we Muvattupuzha river. This river is expected to receive Jderate to heavy pollution loads in years to come, from we lone industrial unit, already set up on its bank. ilike other rivers, the geographical disposition of this Lver attains unique importance as regards its dynamics for 3) availability of natural runoff water from catchment :eas, which becomes very heavy during the monsoon season 3) regular steady availability of tail race water from a /dro—electric power station throughout the yearThe study also aims at arriving at the balancing forces of inherent self~purification of the river verses pollution loads from the factory effluents. The investigation period falls ahead of actual pollution occurrence and so the ambient conditions for a period of nearly one-and-a—half years were investigated, the analyses of which providflz to formulate the inter-relations of parameters varying with seasons. Tracer experiments were carried out which revealed the dispersion and dilution characteristics of the river in the vicinity of effluent outfall. The studv covers the trial—cum-capacity production periods of the factory during which effluents of various strength and quantity were discharged into the river; a few computed values arQ’cjmpgrQdl ... with the observed values. The base data along with the profiles of Oxygen sag equation have been utilized fb develop a mathematical model of the river with regard to its water quality