Adaptation of an apple sooty blotch and flyspeck warning system for the Upper Midwest United States

A warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) of apple, developed in the southeastern United States, uses cumulative hours of leaf wetness duration (LWD) to predict the timing of the first appearance of signs. In the Upper Midwest United States, however, this warning system has resulted in sporadic disease control failures. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the warning system`s algorithm could be modified to provide more reliable assessment of SBFS risk. Hourly LWD, rainfall, relative humidity (RH), and temperature data were collected from orchards in Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin in 2005 and 2006. Timing of the first appearance of SBFS signs was determined by weekly scouting. Preliminary analysis using scatterplots and boxplots suggested that Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% could be a useful predictor of SBFS appearance. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare the predictive performance of cumulative LWD and cumulative hours of RH >= 97%. Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% was a more conservative and accurate predictor than cumulative LWD for 15 site years in the Upper Midwest, but not for four site years in North Carolina. Performance of the SBFS warning system in the Upper Midwest and climatically similar regions may be improved if cumulative hours of RH >= 97% were substituted for cumulative LWD to predict the first appearance of SBFS.

Spatial heterogeneity of leaf wetness duration in apple trees and its influence on performance of a warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck

To determine the effect of sensor placement on the performance of a disease-warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS), we measured leaf wetness duration (LWD) at 12 canopy positions in apple trees, then simulated operation of the disease-warning system using LWD measurements from different parts of the canopy. LWD sensors were placed in four trees within one Iowa orchard during two growing seasons, and in one tree in each of four orchards during a single growing season. The LWD measurements revealed substantial heterogeneity among sensor locations. In all data sets, the upper, eastern portion of the canopy had the longest mean daily LWD, and was the first site to form dew and the last to dry. The lower, western portion of the canopy averaged about 3 It less LWD per day than the top of the canopy, and was the last zone where dew formed and the first to dry off. On about 25% of nights when dew occurred in the top of the canopy, no dew formed in the lower, western canopy. Intracanopy variability of LWD was more pronounced when dew was the sole source of wetness than on days when rainfall occurred. Daily LWD in the upper, eastern portion of the canopy was slightly less than reference measurements made at a 0.7-m height over turfgrass located near the orchard. When LWD measurements from several canopy positions were input to the SBFS warning system, timing of occurrence of a fungicide-spray threshold varied by as much as 30 days among canopy positions. Under Iowa conditions, placement of an LWD sensor at an unobstructed site over turfgrass was a fairly accurate surrogate for the wettest part of the canopy. Therefore, such an extra-canopy LWD sensor might be substituted for a within-canopy sensor to enhance operational reliability of the SBFS warning system.

The development of an early warning system to detect trends in illicit drug use in Australia: The illicit drug reporting-system

Appropriate ways to monitor the availability and use of illicit drugs were examined. Four methods were tested concurrently: (1) a quantitative survey of injecting drug users, (2) a qualitative key informant study of illicit drug users and professionals working in the drug field, (3) examination of existing sources of survey, health and law enforcement data and (4) an ethnographic study of a high risk group of illicit drug users. The first three methods were recommended for inclusion in an ongoing national monitoring system, enabling the collection of both quantitative and qualitative data on a range of illicit drugs in a relatively brief, quick and cost-effective manner. A degree of convergent validity was also noted among these methods, improving the degree of confidence in drug trends. The importance of injecting drug users as a sentinel population of illicit drug users was highlighted, along with optimal methods for qualitative research.

Acute Otitis Media a Reliable Warning Sign for Primary Immunodeficiencies?- A Critical Appraisal

Acute otitis media (AOM) is the most common infection in childhood, resulting from both anatomic and immunologic specificities of this age group. Recurrent AOM has been defined as one of the warning signs for primary immunodeficiencies (PID), In this study we evaluated the strength of recurrent AOM as clinical predictor of PID. Methods: Retrospective study (August 2010 - December 2013) which included all patients referred to PID appointment because of recurrent AOM (= 8 AOM episodes/year). Syndromic patients or those presenting with another warning sign for PID were excluded. Clinical, demographic and laboratory results were analized and statistical analysis was made using SPSS 20. Results: Seventy-five patients were included (median age 37,8 months; 62,7% male gender), corresponding to 15% of all first appointments. Other comorbidities were present in 20% of the patients and 17% had ORL surgery prior to PID referral. In most patients, the immunologic screening consisted on the evaluation of humoral function, but in selected cases other studies were performed (namely complement and lymphocyte immunophenotyping). A PID was identified in 12 children (16,0%) and the majority of these patients had other distinctive feature (personal or familiar antecedent of infection or auto-immunity, 66,7%, p<0,05). Nine children (12,0%) underwent prophylactic cotrimoxazole. The average length of follow-up was 11,2 months. Conclusion: Despite being a very frequent cause of immunologic screening, in this study recurrent AOM was not found to be a good predictor of underlying PID, unless the patients presents other significant personal or family history.

Congenital Heart Disease as a Warning Sign for the Diagnosis of the 22q11.2 Deletion

Background: To alert for the diagnosis of the 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). Objective: To describe the main CHDs, as well as phenotypic, metabolic and immunological findings in a series of 60 patients diagnosed with 22q11.2DS. Methods: The study included 60 patients with 22q11.2DS evaluated between 2007 and 2013 (M:F=1.3, age range 14 days to 20 years and 3 months) at a pediatric reference center for primary immunodeficiencies. The diagnosis was established by detection of the 22q11.2 microdeletion using FISH (n = 18) and/or MLPA (n = 42), in association with clinical and laboratory information. Associated CHDs, progression of phenotypic facial features, hypocalcemia and immunological changes were analyzed. Results: CHDs were detected in 77% of the patients and the most frequent type was tetralogy of Fallot (38.3%). Surgical correction of CHD was performed in 34 patients. Craniofacial dysmorphisms were detected in 41 patients: elongated face (60%) and/or elongated nose (53.3%), narrow palpebral fissure (50%), dysplastic, overfolded ears (48.3%), thin lips (41.6%), elongated fingers (38.3%) and short stature (36.6%). Hypocalcemia was detected in 64.2% and decreased parathyroid hormone (PTH) level in 25.9%. Decrease in total lymphocytes, CD4 and CD8 counts were present in 40%, 53.3% and 33.3%, respectively. Hypogammaglobulinemia was detected in one patient and decreased concentrations of immunoglobulin M (IgM) in two other patients. Conclusion: Suspicion for 22q11.2DS should be raised in all patients with CHD associated with hypocalcemia and/or facial dysmorphisms, considering that many of these changes may evolve with age. The 22q11.2 microdeletion should be confirmed by molecular testing in all patients.

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Warning systems in a computerized nursing process for Intensive Care Units

A hybrid study combining technological production and methodological research aiming to establish associations between the data and information that are part of a Computerized Nursing Process according to the ICNP® Version 1.0, indicators of patient safety and quality of care. Based on the guidelines of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the American Association of Critical Care Nurses for the expansion of warning systems, five warning systems were developed: potential for iatrogenic pneumothorax, potential for care-related infections, potential for suture dehiscence in patients after abdominal or pelvic surgery, potential for loss of vascular access, and potential for endotracheal extubation. The warning systems are a continuous computerized resource of essential situations that promote patient safety and enable the construction of a way to stimulate clinical reasoning and support clinical decision making of nurses in intensive care.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Warning: "Work-at-Home" Schemes, October 2004

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Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Warning: Door-to-Door Meat Scams, August 2004

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Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Warning: Internet "Phishing" Scams, October 2005

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Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Storm Warning: Be Wary of Impostors Posing as Utility Workers, March 2007

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Consumer Advisory Bulletin, "Flood and Storm Warning: Be Wary of Impostors Posing as Utility Workers", June 12, 2008

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: "Look Before You Lease!"