Confirmation of Jacob D. Walter to be United States marshal for the state of Connecticut. Hearing before a subcommittee of the Committee on the judiciary, United States Senate, Seventy-first Congress, second session, on the confirmation of Jacob D. Walter to be United States marshal for the state of Connecticut. February 3, 1930.

William E. Borah, chairman of subcommittee.

Optimal strategies and minimax lower bounds for online convex games

A number of learning problems can be cast as an Online Convex Game: on each round, a learner makes a prediction x from a convex set, the environment plays a loss function f, and the learner’s long-term goal is to minimize regret. Algorithms have been proposed by Zinkevich, when f is assumed to be convex, and Hazan et al., when f is assumed to be strongly convex, that have provably low regret. We consider these two settings and analyze such games from a minimax perspective, proving minimax strategies and lower bounds in each case. These results prove that the existing algorithms are essentially optimal.

Multitask learning with expert advice

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in the setting where a forecaster is presented with several online prediction tasks. Instead of competing against the best expert separately on each task, we assume the tasks are related, and thus we expect that a few experts will perform well on the entire set of tasks. That is, our forecaster would like, on each task, to compete against the best expert chosen from a small set of experts. While we describe the "ideal" algorithm and its performance bound, we show that the computation required for this algorithm is as hard as computation of a matrix permanent. We present an efficient algorithm based on mixing priors, and prove a bound that is nearly as good for the sequential task presentation case. We also consider a harder case where the task may change arbitrarily from round to round, and we develop an efficient approximate randomized algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.

The molecular dynamics of Trypanosoma brucei UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase:a drug target for African sleeping sickness

During the past century, several epidemics of human African trypanosomiasis, a deadly disease caused by the protist Trypanosoma brucei, have afflicted sub-Saharan Africa. Over 10 000 new victims are reported each year, with hundreds of thousands more at risk. As current drug treatments are either highly toxic or ineffective, novel trypanocides are urgently needed. The T. brucei galactose synthesis pathway is one potential therapeutic target. Although galactose is essential for T. brucei survival, the parasite lacks the transporters required to intake galactose from the environment. UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase (TbGalE) is responsible for the epimerization of UDP-glucose to UDP-galactose and is therefore of great interest to medicinal chemists. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we investigate the atomistic motions of TbGalE in both the apo and holo states. The sampled conformations and protein dynamics depend not only on the presence of a UDP-sugar ligand, but also on the chirality of the UDP-sugar C4 atom. This dependence provides important insights into TbGalE function and may help guide future computer-aided drug discovery efforts targeting this protein.

Effect of a multifaceted intervention on adherence to hand hygiene among healthcare workers:A cluster-randomized trial

OBJECTIVES. Adherence to hand hygiene among healthcare workers (HCWs) is widely believed to be a key factor in reducing the spread of healthcare-associated infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of a multifaceted intervention to increase rates of adherence to hand hygiene among HCWs and to assess the effect on the incidence of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization. DESIGN. Cluster-randomized controlled trial. SETTING. Thirty hospital units in 3 tertiary care hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. INTERVENTION. After a 3-month baseline period of data collection, 15 units were randomly assigned to the intervention arm (with performance feedback, small-group teaching seminars, and posters) and 15 units to usual practice. Hand hygiene was observed during randomly selected 15-minute periods on each unit, and the incidence of MRSA colonization was measured using weekly surveillance specimens from June 2007 through May 2008. RESULTS. We found that 3,812 (48.2%) of 7,901 opportunities for hand hygiene in the intervention group resulted in adherence, compared with 3,205 (42.6%) of 7,526 opportunities in the control group (P <.001; independent t test). There was no reduction in the incidence of hospital-acquired MRSA colonization in the intervention group. CONCLUSION. Among HCWs in Ontario tertiary care hospitals, the rate of adherence to hand hygiene had a statistically significant increase of 6% with a multifaceted intervention, but the incidence of MRSA colonization was not reduced.

Pneumonia and lower respiratory infections in nursing home residents:Predictors of hospitalization and mortality

OBJECTIVES: To compare predictors of hospitalization and death in nursing home residents with pneumonia and other lower respiratory infections (LRIs). DESIGN: A nested cohort study. SETTING: Nine nursing homes in southern Ontario. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred fifty-three nursing home residents with LRIs (enrolled in the control arm of a clinical trial). MEASUREMENTS: Comorbidities, vaccination status, age, health-related quality of life, functional status, and vital statistics were evaluated as potential predictors of hospitalization and mortality at 30 days. RESULTS: Moderate to high disease severity score on a practical severity scale was a strong independent predictor of hospitalization (odds ratio (OR)=7.12, P

Adherence to hand hygiene and risk factors for poor adherence in 13 Ontario acute care hospitals

Multicenter studies assessing hand hygiene adherence and risk factors for poor performance are scarce. In an observational study involving 13 hospitals across Ontario, Canada, we found a mean adherence rate of 31.2%, and that adherence was positively associated with nurses, single rooms, contact precautions, and the availability of alcohol hand rub dispensers. Copyright © 2011 by the Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of a clinical pathway to reduce hospitalizations in nursing home residents with pneumonia:A randomized controlled trial

Context: Nursing home residents with pneumonia are frequently hospitalized. Such transfers may be associated with multiple hazards of hospitalization as well as economic costs. Objective: To assess whether using a clinical pathway for on-site treatment of pneumonia and other lower respiratory tract infections in nursing homes could reduce hospital admissions, related complications, and costs. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cluster randomized controlled trial of 680 residents aged 65 years or older in 22 nursing homes in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Nursing homes began enrollment between January 2, 2001, and April 18, 2002, with the last resident follow-up occurring July 4, 2005. Residents were eligible if they met a standardized definition of lower respiratory tract infection. Interventions: Treatment in nursing homes according to a clinical pathway, which included use of oral antimicrobials, portable chest radiographs, oxygen saturation monitoring, rehydration, and close monitoring by a research nurse, or usual care. Main Outcome Measures: Hospital admissions, length of hospital stay, mortality, health-related quality of life, functional status, and cost. Results: Thirty-four (10%) of 327 residents in the clinical pathway group were hospitalized compared with 76 (22%) of 353 residents in the usual care group. Adjusting for clustering of residents in nursing homes, the weighted mean reduction in hospitalizations was 12% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5%-18%; P=.001). The mean number of hospital days per resident was 0.79 in the clinical pathway group vs 1.74 in the usual care group, with a weighted mean difference of 0.95 days per resident (95% CI, 0.34-1.55 days; P=.004). The mortality rate was 8% (24 deaths) in the clinical pathway group vs 9% (32 deaths) in the usual care group, with a weighted mean difference of 2.9% (95% CI, -2.0% to 7.9%; P=.23). There were no significant differences between the groups in health-related quality of life or functional status. The clinical pathway resulted in an overall cost savings of US $1016 per resident (95% CI, $207-$1824) treated. Conclusion: Treating residents of nursing homes with pneumonia and other lower respiratory tract infections with a clinical pathway can result in comparable clinical outcomes, while reducing hospitalizations and health care costs. ©2006 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Interobserver Reliability of Radiologists' Interpretations of Mobile Chest Radiographs for Nursing Home-Acquired Pneumonia

Objectives: To determine the interobserver reliability of radiologists' interpretations of mobile chest radiographs for nursing home-acquired pneumonia. Design: A cross-sectional reliability study. Setting: Nursing homes and an acute care hospital. Participants: Four radiologists reviewed 40 mobile chest radiographs obtained from residents of nursing homes who met a clinical definition of lower respiratory tract infections. Measurements: Radiologists were asked to interpret radiographs with respect to the film quality; presence, pattern, and extent of an infiltrate; and the presence of a pleural effusion or adenopathy. Interrater reliability was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient derived from a 2-way random effects model. Results: On average the radiologists reported that 6 of the 40 films were of very good or excellent quality and 16 of the 40 were of fair or poor quality. When the finding of an infiltrate was dichotomized (0 = no; 1 = possible, probable, or definite) all 4 radiologists agreed on 21 of the 37 chest radiographs. The intraclass correlation coefficient for the presence or absence of infiltrates was 0.54 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.38 to 0.69). For the 14 radiographs where infiltrates were observed by all radiologists, intraclass correlation coefficients for the presence of pleural effusions was 0.08 (95% CI -0.10 to 0.41), hilar adenopathy 0.54 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.79), and mediastinal adenopathy 0.49 (95% CI 0.21 to 0.76). Conclusion: In conclusion, the interrater agreement among radiologists for mobile chest radiographs in establishing the presence or absence of an infiltrate can be judged to be "fair." Treatment decisions need to include clinical findings and should not be made based on radiographic findings alone. © 2006 American Medical Directors Association.

Effect of a multifaceted intervention on number of antimicrobial prescriptions for suspected urinary tract infections in residents of nursing homes:Cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To assess whether a multifaceted intervention can reduce the number of prescriptions for antimicrobials for suspected urinary tract infections in residents of nursing homes. Design: Cluster randomised controlled trial. Setting: 24 nursing homes in Ontario, Canada, and Idaho, United States. Participants: 12 nursing homes allocated to a multifaceted intervention and 12 allocated to usual care. Outcomes were measured in 4217 residents. Interventions: Diagnostic and treatment algorithm for urinary tract infections implemented at the nursing home level using a multifaceted approach-small group interactive sessions for nurses, videotapes, written material, outreach visits, and one on one interviews with physicians. Main outcome measures: Number of antimicrobials prescribed for suspected urinary tract infections, total use of antimicrobials, admissions to hospital, and deaths. Results: Fewer courses of antimicrobials for suspected urinary tract infections per 1000 resident days were prescribed in the intervention nursing homes than in the usual care homes (1.17 v 1.59 courses; weighted mean difference -0.49, 95% confidence intervals -0.93 to -0.06). Antimicrobials for suspected urinary tract infection represented 28.4% of all courses of drugs prescribed in the intervention nursing homes compared with 38.6% prescribed in the usual care homes (weighted mean difference -9.6%, -16.9% to -2.4%). The difference in total antimicrobial use per 1000 resident days between intervention and usual care groups was not significantly different (3.52 v 3.93; weighed mean difference -0.37, -1.17 to 0.44). No significant difference was found in admissions to hospital or mortality between the study arms. Conclusion: A multifaceted intervention using algorithms can reduce the number of antimicrobial prescriptions for suspected urinary tract infections in residents of nursing homes.

The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: A case for a Fragility Index

Objectives

A P-value <0.05 is one metric used to evaluate the results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). We wondered how often statistically significant results in RCTs may be lost with small changes in the numbers of outcomes.

Study Design and Setting

A review of RCTs in high-impact medical journals that reported a statistically significant result for at least one dichotomous or time-to-event outcome in the abstract. In the group with the smallest number of events, we changed the status of patients without an event to an event until the P-value exceeded 0.05. We labeled this number the Fragility Index; smaller numbers indicated a more fragile result.

Results

The 399 eligible trials had a median sample size of 682 patients (range: 15-112,604) and a median of 112 events (range: 8-5,142); 53% reported a P-value <0.01. The median Fragility Index was 8 (range: 0-109); 25% had a Fragility Index of 3 or less. In 53% of trials, the Fragility Index was less than the number of patients lost to follow-up.

Conclusion

The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events. The Fragility Index complements the P-value and helps identify less robust results. 

Toward interoperable bioscience data.

To make full use of research data, the bioscience community needs to adopt technologies and reward mechanisms that support interoperability and promote the growth of an open 'data commoning' culture. Here we describe the prerequisites for data commoning and present an established and growing ecosystem of solutions using the shared 'Investigation-Study-Assay' framework to support that vision.