Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

Evaluating pasture species for less fertile soils in a subtropical aseasonal low rainfall zone

Grasses, legumes, saltbushes and herbs were evaluated at 6 sites in southern inland Queensland to identify potential pasture and forage plants for use on marginal cropping soils. The region experiences summer heat waves and severe winter frosts. Emphasis was on perennial plants, and native species were included. Seedlings were transplanted into the unfertilized fields in either summer or autumn to suit the growing season of plants, and watered to ensure estab-lishment. Summer-growing grasses were the most successful group, while cool season-growing perennials mostly failed. Summer legumes were disappointing, with Stylosanthes scabra and Indigofera schimperi performing best. Some lines such as I. schimperi and the Eragrostis hybrid cv. Cochise were assessed as potential weeds owing to low animal acceptance. Native Rhynchosia minima grew well at some sites and deserves more study. Cenchrus ciliaris was always easy to establish and produced the highest yields. Persistence of some Digitaria and Bothriochloa species, Eragrostis curvula and Fingerhuthia africana at specific sites was encouraging, but potential weediness needs careful assessment. Standard species were identified to represent the main forage types, such as Austrostipa scabra for cool season-growing grasses, for incorporation into future trials with new genetic materials. The early field testing protocol used should be considered for use elsewhere, if unreliable rainfall poses a high risk of establishment failure from scarce seed.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

A high resolution 15,600-year pollen and microcharcoal record from the Cederberg Mountains, South Africa

The Cederberg Mountains (Western Cape Province, South Africa) are located within the Fynbos Biome, which exhibits some of the highest levels of species richness and endemism in the world. The region's post-glacial vegetation history, however, remains largely unknown. Presented here are high resolution pollen and microcharcoal records spanning the last 15,600 years obtained from the De Rif rock hyrax midden from the Driehoek Valley of the central Cederberg. In this region, previous pollen studies have shown muted variability in vegetation community composition during periods of globally marked climatic variability (e.g. the last glacial-interglacial transition). In our record, however, significant changes in vegetation composition are apparent. Most notably, they indicate a shift from ericaceous/restioid fynbos (present from 15,600 to 13,300 cal yr BP) to a brief, but prominent, development of proteoid fynbos at the beginning of the Holocene around 11,200 cal yr BP. This vegetation shift is associated with increased moisture at the site, and coincides with reduced fire frequency as indicated by the microcharcoal record. At 10,400 cal yr BP, there is a marked reduction in Protea-type pollen, which is replaced by thicket, characterised by Dodonaea, which became the dominant arboreal pollen type. This shift was likely the result of a long relatively fire-free period coupled with warmer and wetter climates spanning much of the early Holocene. A brief but marked decrease in water availability around 8500-8000 cal yr BP resulted in the strong decrease of Dodonaea pollen. The vegetation of the mid- to late Holocene is characterised by the increased occurrence of Asteraceae and succulent taxa, suggesting substantially drier conditions. These data give unprecedented insight into the vegetation dynamics across a period of substantial, rapid climate change, and while they confirm the presence of fynbos elements throughout the last 15,600 years, the results highlight significant fluctuations in the vegetation that were triggered by changes in both climate and fire regimes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Raw X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scannings and radiocarbon age of sediment cores GeoB8331-4, and GeoB8322-2

Variations in the sediment input to the Namaqualand mudbelt during the Holocene are assessed using an integrative terrestrial to marine, source to sink approach. Geochemical and Sr and Nd isotopic signatures are used to distinguish fluvial sediment source areas. Relative to the sediments of the Olifants River, craton outcrops in the northern Orange River catchment have a more radiogenic Sr and a more unradiogenic Nd isotopic signature. Furthermore, upper Orange River sediments are rich in heavier elements such as Ti and Fe derived from the chemical weathering of Drakensberg flood basalt. Suspension load signatures change along the Orange River's westward transit as northern catchments contribute physical weathering products from the Fish and Molopo River catchment area. Marine cores offshore of the Olifants (GeoB8323-2) and Orange (GeoB8331-4) River mouths show pulses of increased contribution of Olifants River and upper Orange River input, respectively. These pulses coincide with intervals of increased terrestrial organic matter flux and increased paleo-production at the respective core sites. We attribute this to an increase in fluvial activity and vegetation cover in the adjacent catchments during more humid climate conditions. The contrast in the timing of these wet phases in the catchment areas reflects the bipolar behavior of the South African summer and winter rainfall zones. While rainfall in the Orange River catchment is related to southward shifts in the ICTZ, rainfall in the Olifants catchment is linked to northward shifts in Southern Hemisphere Westerly storm tracks. The later may also have increased southern Benguela upwelling in the past by reducing the shedding of Agulhas eddies into the Atlantic. The high-resolution records of latitudinal shifts in these atmospheric circulation systems correspond to late Holocene centennial-millennial scale climate variability evident in Antarctic ice core records. The mudbelt cores indicate that phases of high summer rainfall zone and low winter rainfall zone humidity (at ca. 2.8 and 1 ka BP) may be synchronous with Antarctic warming events. On the other hand, dry conditions in the summer rainfall zone along with wet conditions in the winter rainfall zone (at ca 3.3, 2 and 0.5 ka BP) may be associated with Antarctic cooling events.

Pollen and spores of sites GeoB8331 and GeoB8323, Namaqualand Mudbelt, Holocene South Africa

To better understand Holocene vegetation and hydrological changes in South Africa, we analyzed pollen and microcharcoal records of two marine sites GeoB8331 and GeoB8323 from the Namaqualand mudbelt offshore the west coast of South Africa covering the last 9900 and 2200 years, respectively. Our data corroborate findings from literature that climate developments apparently contrast between the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) over the last 9900 years, especially during the early and middle Holocene. During the early Holocene (9900-7800 cal.yr BP), a minimum of grass pollen suggests low summer rainfall in the SRZ, and the initial presence of Renosterveld vegetation indicates relatively wet conditions in the WRZ. Towards the middle Holocene (7800-2400 cal. yr BP), a rather moist savanna/grassland rich in grasses suggests higher summer rainfall in the SRZ resulting from increased austral summer insolation and a decline of fynbos vegetation accompanied by an increasing Succulent Karoo vegetation in the WRZ possibly suggests a southward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. During the last 2200 years, a trend towards higher aridity was observed for the SRZ, while the climate in the WRZ remained relatively stable. The Little Ice Age (ca. 700-200 cal. yr BP) was rather cool in both rainfall zones and drier in the SRZ while wetter in the WRZ.

The role of tillage, fertiliser and forage species in sustaining dairying based on crops in southern Queensland 2. Double-crop and summer sole-crop systems.

Dairy farms located in the subtropical cereal belt of Australia rely on winter and summer cereal crops, rather than pastures, for their forage base. Crops are mostly established in tilled seedbeds and the system is vulnerable to fertility decline and water erosion, particularly over summer fallows. Field studies were conducted over 5 years on contrasting soil types, a Vertosol and Sodosol, in the 650-mm annual-rainfall zone to evaluate the benefits of a modified cropping program on forage productivity and the soil-resource base. Growing forage sorghum as a double-crop with oats increased total mean annual production over that of winter sole-crop systems by 40% and 100% on the Vertosol and Sodosol sites respectively. However, mean annual winter crop yield was halved and overall forage quality was lower. Ninety per cent of the variation in winter crop yield was attributable to fallow and in-crop rainfall. Replacing forage sorghum with the annual legume lablab reduced fertiliser nitrogen (N) requirements and increased forage N concentration, but reduced overall annual yield. Compared with sole-cropped oats, double-cropping reduced the risk of erosion by extending the duration of soil water deficits and increasing the time ground was under plant cover. When grown as a sole-crop, well fertilised forage sorghum achieved a mean annual cumulative yield of 9.64 and 6.05 t DM/ha on the Vertosol and Sodosol, respectively, being about twice that of sole-cropped oats. Forage sorghum established using zero-tillage practices and fertilised at 175 kg N/ha. crop achieved a significantly higher yield and forage N concentration than did the industry-standard forage sorghum (conventional tillage and 55 kg N/ha. crop) on the Vertosol but not on the Sodosol. On the Vertosol, mean annual yield increased from 5.65 to 9.64 t DM/ha (33 kg DM/kg N fertiliser applied above the base rate); the difference in the response between the two sites was attributed to soil type and fertiliser history. Changing both tillage practices and N-fertiliser rate had no affect on fallow water-storage efficiency but did improve fallow ground cover. When forage sorghum, grown as a sole crop, was replaced with lablab in 3 of the 5 years, overall forage N concentration increased significantly, and on the Vertosol, yield and soil nitrate-N reserves also increased significantly relative to industry-standard sorghum. All forage systems maintained or increased the concentration of soil nitrate-N (0-1.2-m soil layer) over the course of the study. Relative to sole-crop oats, alternative forage systems were generally beneficial to the concentration of surface-soil (0-0.1 m) organic carbon and systems that included sorghum showed most promise for increasing soil organic carbon concentration. We conclude that an emphasis on double-or summer sole-cropping rather than winter sole-cropping will advantage both farm productivity and the soil-resource base.

Soil nitrogen—crop response calibration relationships and criteria for winter cereal crops grown in Australia

More than 1200 wheat and 120 barley experiments conducted in Australia to examine yield responses to applied nitrogen (N) fertiliser are contained in a national database of field crops nutrient research (BFDC National Database). The yield responses are accompanied by various pre-plant soil test data to quantify plant-available N and other indicators of soil fertility status or mineralisable N. A web application (BFDC Interrogator), developed to access the database, enables construction of calibrations between relative crop yield ((Y0/Ymax) × 100) and N soil test value. In this paper we report the critical soil test values for 90% RY (CV90) and the associated critical ranges (CR90, defined as the 70% confidence interval around that CV90) derived from analysis of various subsets of these winter cereal experiments. Experimental programs were conducted throughout Australia’s main grain-production regions in different eras, starting from the 1960s in Queensland through to Victoria during 2000s. Improved management practices adopted during the period were reflected in increasing potential yields with research era, increasing from an average Ymax of 2.2 t/ha in Queensland in the 1960s and 1970s, to 3.4 t/ha in South Australia (SA) in the 1980s, to 4.3 t/ha in New South Wales (NSW) in the 1990s, and 4.2 t/ha in Victoria in the 2000s. Various sampling depths (0.1–1.2 m) and methods of quantifying available N (nitrate-N or mineral-N) from pre-planting soil samples were used and provided useful guides to the need for supplementary N. The most regionally consistent relationships were established using nitrate-N (kg/ha) in the top 0.6 m of the soil profile, with regional and seasonal variation in CV90 largely accounted for through impacts on experimental Ymax. The CV90 for nitrate-N within the top 0.6 m of the soil profile for wheat crops increased from 36 to 110 kg nitrate-N/ha as Ymax increased over the range 1 to >5 t/ha. Apparent variation in CV90 with seasonal moisture availability was entirely consistent with impacts on experimental Ymax. Further analyses of wheat trials with available grain protein (~45% of all experiments) established that grain yield and not grain N content was the major driver of crop N demand and CV90. Subsets of data explored the impact of crop management practices such as crop rotation or fallow length on both pre-planting profile mineral-N and CV90. Analyses showed that while management practices influenced profile mineral-N at planting and the likelihood and size of yield response to applied N fertiliser, they had no significant impact on CV90. A level of risk is involved with the use of pre-plant testing to determine the need for supplementary N application in all Australian dryland systems. In southern and western regions, where crop performance is based almost entirely on in-crop rainfall, this risk is offset by the management opportunity to split N applications during crop growth in response to changing crop yield potential. In northern cropping systems, where stored soil moisture at sowing is indicative of minimum yield potential, erratic winter rainfall increases uncertainty about actual yield potential as well as reducing the opportunity for effective in-season applications.

Spatial and temporal variability in the relative contribution of king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) stocks to winter mixed fisheries off South Florida

King mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) are ecologically and economically important scombrids that inhabit U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic). Separate migratory groups, or stocks, migrate from eastern GOM and southeastern U.S. Atlantic to south Florida waters where the stocks mix during winter. Currently, all winter landings from a management-defined south Florida mixing zone are attributed to the GOM stock. In this study, the stock composition of winter landings across three south Florida sampling zones was estimated by using stock-specific otolith morphological variables and Fourier harmonics. The mean accuracies of the jackknifed classifications from stepwise linear discriminant function analysis of otolith shape variables ranged from 66−76% for sex-specific models. Estimates of the contribution of the Atlantic stock to winter landings, derived from maximum likelihood stock mixing models, indicated the contribution was highest off southeastern Florida (as high as 82.8% for females in winter 2001−02) and lowest off southwestern Florida (as low as 14.5% for females in winter 2002−03). Overall, results provided evidence that the Atlantic stock contributes a certain, and perhaps a significant (i.e., ≥50%), percentage of landings taken in the management-defined winter mixing zone off south Florida, and the practice of assigning all winter mixing zone landings to the GOM stock should

Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations

We analyse the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in pre-industrial (piControl) and mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6 yr BP) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in the piControl simulations, but overestimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene, the models simulate a reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows most models underestimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on midHolocene anomalies in ocean–atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in Mediterranean climate.

Atmospheric rivers do not explain UK summer extreme rainfall

Extreme rainfall events continue to be one of the largest natural hazards in the UK. In winter, heavy precipitation and floods have been linked with intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), yet no large-scale atmospheric precursors have been linked to summer flooding in the UK. This study investigates the link between ARs and extreme rainfall from two perspectives: 1) Given an extreme rainfall event, is there an associated AR? 2) Given an AR, is there an associated extreme rainfall event? We identify extreme rainfall events using the UK Met Office daily rain-gauge dataset and link these to ARs using two different horizontal resolution atmospheric datasets (ERA-Interim and 20th Century Re-analysis). The results show that less than 35% of winter ARs and less than 15% of summer ARs are associated with an extreme rainfall event. Consistent with previous studies, at least 50% of extreme winter rainfall events are associated with an AR. However, less than 20% of the identified summer extreme rainfall events are associated with an AR. The dependence of the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR on the years included in the study, and on the length of the season, is also examined. Including a longer period (1900-2012) compared to previous studies (1979-2005) reduces the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR.

Ecosystem functions are resistant to extreme changes to rainfall regimes in a mesotrophic grassland

Major changes to rainfall regimes are predicted for the future but the effect of such changes on terrestrial ecosystem function is largely unknown. We created a rainfall manipulation experiment to investigate the effects of extreme changes in rainfall regimes on ecosystem functioning in a grassland system. We applied two rainfall regimes; a prolonged drought treatment (30 % reduction over spring and summer) and drought/downpour treatment (long periods of no rainfall interspersed with downpours), with an ambient control. Both rainfall manipulations included increased winter rainfall. We measured plant community composition, CO2 fluxes and soil nutrient availability. Plant species richness and cover were lower in the drought/downpour treatment, and showed little recovery after the treatment ceased. Ecosystem processes were less affected, possibly due to winter rainfall additions buffering reduced summer rainfall, which saw relatively small soil moisture changes. However, soil extractable P and ecosystem respiration were significantly higher in rainfall change treatments than in the control. This grassland appears fairly resistant, in the short term, to even the more extreme rainfall changes that are predicted for the region, although prolonged study is needed to measure longer-term impacts. Differences in ecosystem responses between the two treatments emphasise the variety of ecosystem responses to changes in both the size and frequency of rainfall events. Given that model predictions are inconsistent there is therefore a need to assess ecosystem function under a range of potential climate change scenarios.

Plant and arthropod community sensitivity to rainfall manipulation but not nitrogen enrichment in a successional grassland ecosystem

Grasslands provide many ecosystem services including carbon storage, biodiversity preservation and livestock forage production. These ecosystem services will change in the future in response to multiple global environmental changes, including climate change and increased nitrogen inputs. We conducted an experimental study over 3 years in a mesotrophic grassland ecosystem in southern England. We aimed to expose plots to rainfall manipulation that simulated IPCC 4th Assessment projections for 2100 (+15 % winter rainfall and −30 % summer rainfall) or ambient climate, achieving +15 % winter rainfall and −39 % summer rainfall in rainfall-manipulated plots. Nitrogen (40 kg ha−1 year−1) was also added to half of the experimental plots in factorial combination. Plant species composition and above ground biomass were not affected by rainfall in the first 2 years and the plant community did not respond to nitrogen enrichment throughout the experiment. In the third year, above-ground plant biomass declined in rainfall-manipulated plots, driven by a decline in the abundances of grass species characteristic of moist soils. Declining plant biomass was also associated with changes to arthropod communities, with lower abundances of plant-feeding Auchenorrhyncha and carnivorous Araneae indicating multi-trophic responses to rainfall manipulation. Plant and arthropod community composition and plant biomass responses to rainfall manipulation were not modified by nitrogen enrichment, which was not expected, but may have resulted from prior nitrogen saturation and/or phosphorus limitation. Overall, our study demonstrates that climate change may in future influence plant productivity and induce multi-trophic responses in grasslands.

Age, pollen and spores of ODP Site 175-1082

The present-day condition of bipolar glaciation characterized by rapid and large climate fluctuations began at the end of the Pliocene with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere continental glaciations. The global cooling steps of the late Pliocene have been documented in numerous studies of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites from the Northern Hemisphere. However, the interactions between oceans and between land and ocean during these cooling steps are poorly known. In particular, data from the Southern Hemisphere are lacking. Therefore I investigated the pollen of ODP Site 1082 in the southeast Atlantic Ocean in order to obtain a high-resolution record of vegetation change in Namibia between 3.4 and 1.8 Ma. Four phases of vegetation development are inferred that are connected to global climate change. (1) Before 3 Ma, extensive, rather open grass-rich savannahs with mopane trees existed in Namibia, but the extension of desert and semidesert vegetation was still restricted. (2) Increase of winter rainfall dependent Renosterveld-like vegetation occurred between 3.1 and 2.2 Ma connected to strong advection of polar waters along the Namibian coast and a northward shift of the Polar Front Zone in the Southern Ocean. (3) Climatically induced fluctuations became stronger between 2.7 and 2.2 Ma and semiarid areas extended during glacial periods probably as the result of an increased pole-equator thermal gradient and consequently globally enhanced atmospheric circulation. (4) Aridification and climatic variability further increased after 2.2 Ma, when the Polar Front Zone migrated southward and the influence of Atlantic moisture brought by the westerlies to southern Africa declined. It is concluded that the positions of the frontal systems in the Southern Ocean which determine the locations of the high-pressure cells over the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean have a strong influence on the climate of southern Africa in contrast to the climate of northwest and central Africa, which is dominated by the Saharan low-pressure cell.