Can social resilience inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable regions?

Social resilience concepts are gaining momentum in environmental planning through an emerging understanding of the socio-ecological nature of biophysical systems. There is a disconnect, however, between these concepts and the sociological and psychological literature related to social resilience. Further still, both schools of thought are not well connected to the concepts of social assessment (SA) and social impact assessment (SIA) that are the more standard tools supporting planning and decision-making. This raises questions as to how emerging social resilience concepts can translate into improved SA/SIA practices to inform regional-scale adaptation. Through a review of the literature, this paper suggests that more cross-disciplinary integration is needed if social resilience concepts are to have a genuine impact in helping vulnerable regions tackle climate change.

Can social resilience inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable regions?

This book represents a landmark effort to probe and analyze the theory and empirics of designing water disaster management policies. It consists of seven chapters that examine, in-depth and comprehensively, issues that are central to crafting effective policies for water disaster management. The authors use historical surveys, institutional analysis, econometric investigations, empirical case studies, and conceptual-theoretical discussions to clarify and illuminate the complex policy process. The specific topics studied in this book include a review and analysis of key policy areas and research priority areas associated with water disaster management, community participation in disaster risk reduction, the economics and politics of ‘green’ flood control, probabilistic flood forecasting for flood risk management, polycentric governance and flood risk management, drought management with the aid of dynamic inter-generational preferences, and how social resilience can inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable areas. A unique feature of this book is its analysis of the causes and consequences of water disasters and efforts to address them successfully through policy-rich, cross-disciplinary and transnational papers. This book is designed to help enrich the sparse discourse on water disaster management policies and galvanize water professionals to craft creative solutions to tackle water disasters efficiently, equitably, and sustainably. This book should also be of considerable use to disaster management professionals, in general, and natural resource policy analysts.

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope

Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

Role of big data in the early detection of Ebola and other emerging infectious diseases

The lack of adequate disease surveillance systems in Ebola-affected areas has both reduced the ability to respond locally and has increased global risk. There is a need to improve disease surveillance in vulnerable regions, and digital surveillance could present a viable approach.

The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes.

Community-based Natural Resource Management: Issues and Cases from South Asia

Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is the joint management of natural resources by a community based on a community strategy, through a participatory mechanism involving all legitimate stakeholders. The approach is community-based in that the communities managing the resources have the legal rights, the local institutions and the economic incentives to take substantial responsibility for sustained use of these resources. This implies that the community plays an active role in the management of natural resources, not because it asserts sole ownership over them, but because it can claim participation in their management and benefits for practical and technical reasons1–4. This approach emerged as the dominant conservation concept in the late 1970s and early 1980s, of the disillusionment with the developmental state. Governments across South and South East Asia, Africa and Latin America have adopted and implemented CBNRM in various ways, viz. through sectoral programmes such as forestry, irrigation or wildlife management, multisectoral programmes such as watershed development and efforts towards political devolution. In India, the principle of decentralization through ‘gram swaraj’ was introduced by Mahatma Gandhi. The 73rd and 74th constitution amendments in 1992 gave impetus to the decentralized planning at panchayat levels through the creation of a statutory three-level local self-government structure5,6. The strength of this book is that it includes chapters by CBNRM advocates based on six seemingly innovative initiatives being implemented by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in ecologically vulnerable regions of South Asia: two in the Himalayas (watershed development programme in Lingmutechhu, Bhuthan and Thalisain tehsil, Paudi Grahwal District, Uttarakhand), three in semi-arid parts of western India (watershed development in Hivre Bazar, Maharashtra and Nathugadh village, Gujarat and water-harvesting structures in Gopalapura, Rajasthan) and one in the flood-plains of the Brahmaputra–Jamuna (Char land, Galibanda and Jamalpur districts, Bangladesh). Watersheds in semi-arid regions fall in the low-rainfall region (500–700 mm) and suffer the vagaries of drought 2–3 years in every five-year cycle. In all these locations, the major occupation is agriculture, most of which is rainfed or dry. The other two cases (in Uttarakhand) fall in the Himalayan region (temperate/sub-temperate climate), which has witnessed extensive deforestation in the last century and is now considered as one of the most vulnerable locations in South Asia. Terraced agriculture is being practised in these locations for a long time. The last case (Gono Chetona) falls in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna charlands which are the most ecologically vulnerable regions in the sub-continent with constantly changing landscape. Agriculture and livestock rearing are the main occupations, and there is substantial seasonal emigration for wage labour by the adult males. River erosion and floods force the people to adopt a semi-migratory lifestyle. The book attempts to analyse the potential as well as limitations of NGOdriven CBNRM endeavours across agroclimatic regions of South Asia with emphasis on four intrinsically linked normative concerns, namely sustainability, livelihood enhancement, equity and demographic decentralization in chapters 2–7. Comparative analysis of these case studies done in chapter 8, highlights the issues that require further research while portraying the strengths and limits of NGO-driven CBNRM. In Hivre Bazar, the post-watershed intervention scenario is such that farmers often grow three crops in a year – kharif bajra, rabi jowar and summer vegetable crops. Productivity has increased in the dry lands due to improvement in soil moisture levels. The revival of johads in Gopalpura has led to the proliferation of wheat and increased productivity. In Lingmuteychhu, productivity gains have also arisen, but more due to the introduction of both local and high-yielding, new varieties as opposed to increased water availability. In the case of Gono Chetona, improvements have come due to diversification of agriculture; for example, the promotion of vegetable gardens. CBNRM interventions in most cases have also led to new avenues of employment and income generation. The synthesis shows that CBNRM efforts have made significant contributions to livelihood enhancement and only limited gains in terms of collective action for sustainable and equitable access to benefits and continuing resource use, and in terms of democratic decentralization, contrary to the objectives of the programme. Livelihood benefits include improvements in availability of livelihood support resources (fuelwood, fodder, drinking water), increased productivity (including diversification of cropping pattern) in agriculture and allied activities, and new sources of livelihood. However, NGO-driven CBNRM has not met its goal of providing ‘alternative’ forms of ‘development’ due to impediments of state policy, short-sighted vision of implementers and confrontation with the socio-ecological reality of the region, which almost always are that of fragmented communities (or communities in flux) with unequal dependence and access to land and other natural resources along with great gender imbalances. Appalling, however, is the general absence of recognition of the importance of and the will to explore practical ways to bring about equitable resource transfer or benefit-sharing and the consequent innovations in this respect that are evident in the pioneering community initiatives such as pani panchayat, etc. Pertaining to the gains on the ecological sustainability front, Hivre Bazar and Thalisain initiatives through active participation of villagers have made significant regeneration of the water table within the village, and mechanisms such as ban on number of bore wells, the regulation of cropping pattern, restrictions on felling of trees and free grazing to ensure that in the future, the groundwater is neither over-exploited nor its recharge capability impaired. Nevertheless, the longterm sustainability of the interventions in the case of Ghoga and Gopalpura initiatives as the focus has been mostly on regeneration of resources, and less on regulating the use of regenerated resources. Further, in Lingmuteychhu and Gono Chetona, the interventions are mainly household-based and the focus has been less explicit on ecological components. The studies demonstrate the livelihood benefits to all of the interventions and significant variation in achievements with reference to sustainability, equity and democratic decentralization depending on the level and extent of community participation apart from the vision of implementers, strategy (or nature of intervention shaped by the question of community formation), the centrality of community formation and also the State policy. Case studies show that the influence of State policy is multi-faceted and often contradictory in nature. This necessitates NGOs to engage with the State in a much more purposeful way than in an ‘autonomous space’. Thus the role of NGOs in CBNRM is complementary, wherein they provide innovative experiments that the State can learn. This helps in achieving the goals of CBNRM through democratic decentralization. The book addresses the vital issues related to natural resource management and interests of the community. Key topics discussed throughout the book are still at the centre of the current debate. This compilation consists of well-written chapters based on rigorous synthesis of CBNRM case studies, which will serve as good references for students, researchers and practitioners in the years to come.

Gestão do trabalho na Estratégia Saúde da Família em municípios do Estado do Rio de Janeiro com mais de 500 mil habitantes: o caso do Rio de Janeiro e Duque de Caxias

Não obstante ao aumento do número de equipes de Saúde da Família no território brasileiro há disparidade na implantação da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) em municípios de grande porte. Outras dificuldades enfrentadas referem-se aos recursos humanos em saúde (RHS). Nesse sentido, esta pesquisa objetivou analisar o cenário atual da gestão do trabalho na ESF nos municípios do Rio de Janeiro e Duque de Caxias. Metodologia: Estudo exploratório, de investigação narrativa, bibliográfica e documental, de abordagem qualitativa. A coleta de dados se deu em duas fases: pesquisa de material bibliográfico nas bases: LILACS, PAHO e WHOLIS, e de editais de processos seletivos e concursos públicos dos anos 2000, com vistas à contratação de profissionais de saúde para a ESF e; entrevistas semiestruturadas com gestores da ESF. O período de coleta perdurou entre agosto de 2010 e dezembro de 2011. Os documentos foram analisados à luz da estatística descritiva e as entrevistas submetidas à análise de conteúdo. Resultados: Escassez de literatura sobre a ESF nos municípios de Duque de Caxias e Rio de Janeiro. As contratações no Rio de Janeiro obedeceram a dois momentos: prefeitura e Organizações Sociais (OS) como contratantes. Em Duque de Caxias a contratação foi exclusividade da Prefeitura. No Rio de Janeiro os salários dos profissionais variaram entre R$ 728,59 (Agentes Comunitários de Saúde - ACS) e R$ 7.773,69 (médicos), contrastando com a isonomia salarial adotada em Duque de Caxias, com vencimentos ao redor de R$ 700,00 para os ACS, R$ 800,00 para nível técnico e; aproximadamente R$ 5.000,00 aos profissionais de nível superior. Os gestores sugerem que a maior rotatividade entre os médicos é motivada por carga horária excessiva; más condições de trabalho e, localização da unidade em áreas de risco social. As estratégias para atração e fixação profissional incluem: processos seletivos; garantia dos direitos trabalhistas e; abonos salariais, no caso do Rio de Janeiro e; flexibilização de carga horária, melhorias em infraestrutura e estratégias de qualificação, em Duque de Caxias. Entrevistas revelaram as maiores dificuldades na gestão da ESF: alta rotatividade, formação médica destoante com o SUS e, infraestrutura precária. Acrescenta-se o baixo salário para médicos em Duque de Caxias e, vínculos e salários distintos entre profissionais que exercem mesma função no Rio de Janeiro. Conclusões: A expansão da ESF nos grandes centros urbanos encontra obstáculos relacionados à gestão do trabalho que fragilizam sua consolidação. O Rio de Janeiro mostra-se mais atraente para os profissionais da ESF. O único diferencial de Duque de Caxias, sobretudo para odontólogos e enfermeiros, refere-se à contratação direta pela Prefeitura com vinculação estatutária, ainda que, eventual aumento salarial esteja atrelado ao de todos os servidores municipais. No Rio de Janeiro, a contratação sob regime da Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho revela-se uma proteção, posto que diante da possibilidade de perda de profissionais as OS elevam seus salários. Dentre as recomendações para fixação profissional incluem-se: incentivos salariais para atuação em regiões vulneráveis, melhorias em infraestrutura e, acoplação entre Instituições de Ensino Superior e rede de saúde.

Ingestão de nutrientes segundo variáveis demográficas e socioeconômicas em adultos brasileiros: Inquérito Nacional de Alimentação - Brasil, 2008-2009

A tese descreve a ingestão de nutrientes segundo variáveis demográficas e socioeconômicas em adultos brasileiros, com base nos dados da primeira avaliação nacional do consumo alimentar individual, o Inquérito Nacional de Alimentação (INA), realizado entre 2008 e 2009. Um total de 34.003 indivíduos com pelo menos 10 anos de idade participaram do estudo. O presente estudo incluiu 21.003 indivíduos adultos, de 20 a 59 anos de idade, com exceção das mulheres gestantes e lactantes (n=1.065). O consumo alimentar individual foi estimado utilizando dois dias de registros alimentares não consecutivos. O consumo usual de nutrientes foi estimado pelo método do National Cancer Institute que permitiu a correção da variabilidade intraindividual. As prevalências de ingestão inadequada de nutrientes foram estimadas segundo o sexo e faixas etárias utilizando o método da necessidade média estimada como ponte de corte. A inadequação de sódio foi avaliada pelo consumo acima do nível de ingestão máximo tolerável. Os resultados são apresentados na forma de dois artigos. No primeiro artigo, estimaram-se as prevalências de inadequação segundo as cinco grandes regiões (Norte, Nordeste, Sudeste, Sul e Centro-Oeste) e a situação do domicílio (urbano e rural). Observaram-se prevalências de inadequação maiores ou iguais a 70% para cálcio entre os homens e magnésio, vitamina A, sódio em ambos os sexos. Prevalências maiores ou iguais a 90% foram encontradas para cálcio entre as mulheres e vitaminas D e E em ambos os sexos. No geral, os grupos com maior risco de inadequação de micronutrientes foram as mulheres e os que residem na área rural e na região Nordeste. No segundo artigo, estimaram-se as prevalências de inadequação do consumo segundo renda e escolaridade. A renda foi caracterizada pela renda mensal familiar per capita e a escolaridade definida pelo número de anos completos de estudo. Ambas variáveis foram categorizadas em quartis. Modelos de regressão linear simples e mutuamente ajustados foram estimados para verificar a associação independente entre o consumo de nutrientes e as variáveis socioeconômicas. Foram testadas as interações entre renda e escolaridade. Verificou-se que a inadequação da maioria dos nutrientes diminuiu com o aumento da renda e escolaridade; porém, o consumo excessivo de gordura saturada e o baixo consumo de fibra aumentaram com ambas variáveis. Grande parte dos nutrientes foi independentemente associada à renda e escolaridade, contudo, o consumo de ferro, vitamina B12 e sódio entre mulheres foi associado somente com a educação. Observou-se interação entre renda e escolaridade na associação com o consumo de sódio em homens, fósforo em mulheres e cálcio em ambos os sexos. Os achados indicam que melhorar a educação é um passo importante na melhoria do consumo de nutrientes no Brasil, além da necessidade de formulação de estratégias econômicas que permitam que indivíduos de baixa renda adotem uma dieta saudável. Nossos resultados mostram também um grande desafio das ações de saúde pública na área de nutrição, com importantes inadequações de consumo em toda população adulta brasileira e particularmente em grupos populacionais e regiões mais vulneráveis do país.

Optimization of Composite Structures to Delay Mode Jump Instabilities

Numerous studies have shown that postbuckling stiffened panels may undergo abrupt changes in buckled mode
shape when loaded in uniaxial compression. This phenomenon is often referred to as a mode jump or secondary
instability. The resulting sudden release of stored energy may initiate damage in vulnerable regions within a
structure, for example, at the skin-stiffener interface of a stiffened composite panel. Current design practice is to
remove a mode jump by increasing the skin thickness of the postbuckling region. A layup optimization methodology,
based on a genetic algorithm, is presented, which delays the onset of secondary instabilities in a composite structure
while maintaining a constant weight and subject to a number of design constraints. A finite element model was
developed of a stiffened panel’s skin bay, which exhibited secondary instabilities. An automated numerical routine
extracted information directly from the finite element displacement results to detect the onset of initial buckling and
secondary instabilities. This routine was linked to the genetic algorithm to find a revised layup for the skin bay, within
appropriate design constraints, to delay the onset of secondary instabilities. The layup optimization methodology,
resulted in a panel that had a higher buckling load, prebuckling stiffness, and secondary instability load than the
baseline design.

Post-fire vegetation regeneration in Portugal : implications for management

This thesis aims at improving the knowledge on the post-fire vegetation regeneration. For that, forests and shrublands were studied, after forest fires and experimental fires. Maritime Pine (Pinus pinaster) recruitment after fire was studied. Fire severity was evidenced as a major effect on this process. High crown fire severity can combust the pines, destroying the seed bank and impeding post fire pine recruitment. However, crown combustion also influences the post-fire conditions on the soil surface, since high crown combustion (HCC) will decrease the postfire needle cast. After low crown combustion (LCC) (scorched rather than torched crowns), a considerable needle cover was observed, along with a higher density of pine seedlings. The overall trends of post-fire recruitment among LCC and HCC areas could be significantly attributed to cover by needles, as well by the estimation of fire severity using the diameters of the burned twigs (TSI). Fire increased the germination from the soil seed bank of a Pinus pinaster forest, and the effects were also related with fire severity. The densities of seedlings of the dominant taxa (genus Erica and Calluna vulgaris) were contrastingly affected in relation to the unburned situation, depending on fire severity, as estimated from the degree of fire-induced crown damage (LCC/HCC), as well as using a severity index based on the diameters of remaining twigs (TSI). Low severity patches had an increase in germination density relatively to the control, while high severity patches suffered a reduction. After an experimental fire in a heathland dominated by Pterospartum tridentatum, Erica australis and E. umbellata, no net differences in seedling emergence were observed, in relation to the pre-fire situation. However, rather than having no effect, the heterogeneity of temperatures caused by fire promoted caused divergent effects over the burned plot in terms of Erica australis germination – a progressive increased was observed in the plots were maximum temperature recorded ranged from 29 to 42.5ºC and decreased in plots with maximum temperature ranging from 51.5 to 74.5ºC. In this heathland, the seed density of two of the main species (E. australis and E. umbellata) was higher under their canopies, but the same was not true for P. tridentatum. The understory regeneration in pine and eucalypt stands, 5 to 6 years post fire, has been strongly associated with post-fire management practices. The effect of forest type was, comparatively, insignificant. Soil tilling, tree harvesting and shrub clearance, were linked to lower soil cover percentages. However, while all these management operations negatively affected the cover of resprouters, seeders were not affected by soil tilling. A strong influence of biogeographic region was identified, suggesting that more vulnerable regions may suffer higher effects of management, even under comparatively lower management pressure than more productive regions. This emphasizes the need to adequate post-fire management techniques to the target regions.

Resiliência, sustentabilidade e qualidade de vida em sistemas urbanos : efeitos da crise (pós-2008) em Portugal e no sistema urbano do oeste

Tese de doutoramento, Geografia (Planeamento Regional e Urbano), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, 2014

Influence of south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa

It is generally agreed that changing climate variability, and the associated change in climate extremes, may have a greater impact on environmentally vulnerable regions than a changing mean. This research investigates rainfall variability, rainfall extremes, and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations over southern Africa, a region that is considered particularly vulnerable to extreme events because of numerous environmental, social, and economic pressures. Because rainfall variability is a function of scale, high-resolution data are needed to identify extreme events. Thus, this research uses remotely sensed rainfall data and climate model experiments at high spatial and temporal resolution, with the overall aim being to investigate the ways in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. Extreme rainfall identification is achieved by the high-resolution microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm dataset. This comprises satellite-derived daily rainfall from 1993 to 2002 and covers southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° latitude–longitude. Extremes are extracted and used with reanalysis data to study possible circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall. Anomalously cold SSTs in the central South Atlantic and warm SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa seem to be statistically related to rainfall extremes. Further, through a number of idealized climate model experiments, it would appear that both decreasing SSTs in the central South Atlantic and increasing SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa lead to a demonstrable increase in daily rainfall and rainfall extremes over southern Africa, via local effects such as increased convection and remote effects such as an adjustment of the Walker-type circulation.

Climatic and oceanic associations with daily rainfall extremes over southern Africa

Changes in climate variability and, in particular, changes in extreme climate events are likely to be of far more significance for environmentally vulnerable regions than changes in the mean state. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) play an important role in modulating rainfall variability. Consequently, SSTs can be prescribed in global and regional climate modelling in order to study the physical mechanisms behind rainfall and its extremes. Using a satellite-based daily rainfall historical data set, this paper describes the main patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa, identifies the dates when extreme rainfall occurs within these patterns, and shows the effect of resolution in trying to identify the location and intensity of SST anomalies associated with these extremes in the Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean. Derived from a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the results also suggest that, for the spatial pattern accounting for the highest amount of variability, extremes extracted at a higher spatial resolution do give a clearer indication regarding the location and intensity of anomalous SST regions. As the amount of variability explained by each spatial pattern defined by the PCA decreases, it would appear that extremes extracted at a lower resolution give a clearer indication of anomalous SST regions.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UKMeteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is underestimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.