Vulnerability to Heatwaves, Floods and Mass Movements in Mountainous Terrain: Test Cases in South Tyrol

South Tyrol is a region that has been often affected by various mountain hazards such as floods, flash floods, debris flows, rock falls, and snow avalanches. Furthermore, areas located in lower altitudes are often influenced by high temperatures and heat waves. Climate change is expected to influence the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of these natural phenomena. For this reason, local authorities and other stakeholders are in need of tools that can enable them to reduce the risk posed by these processes. In the present study, a variety of methods are applied at local level in different places in South Tyrol that aim at: (1) the assessment of future losses caused by the occurrence of debris flows by using a vulnerability curve, (2) the assessment of social vulnerability based on the risk awareness of the exposed people to floods, and (3) the assessment of spatial exposure and social vulnerability of the exposed population to heat waves. The results show that, in South Tyrol, the risk to a number of hazards can be reduced by: (1) improving documentation for past events in order to improve existing vulnerability curves and the assessment of future losses, (2) raising citizens' awareness and responsibility to improve coping capacity to floods, and (3) extending heat wave early warning systems to more low-lying areas of South Tyrol.

Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas – An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation

Global environmental change includes changes in a wide range of global scale phenomena, which are expected to affect a number of physical processes, as well as the vulnerability of the communities that will experience their impact. Decision-makers are in need of tools that will enable them to assess the loss of such processes under different future scenarios and to design risk reduction strategies. In this paper, a tool is presented that can be used by a range of end-users (e.g. local authorities, decision makers, etc.) for the assessment of the monetary loss from future landslide events, with a particular focus on torrential processes. The toolbox includes three functions: a) enhancement of the post-event damage data collection process, b) assessment of monetary loss of future events and c) continuous updating and improvement of an existing vulnerability curve by adding data of recent events. All functions of the tool are demonstrated through examples of its application.

贵州喀斯特森林优势木本植物水力结构特征

水力结构就是植物在特定的自然环境条件下，为适应生存竞争的需要所形成的不同形态结构和水分运输供给策略，它对于植物物种的分布、抗逆能力等方面起关键性作用。喀斯特常绿阔叶林生长的特有植物种类以其独特的形态解剖特征和生理适应性，很好的适应了喀斯特地区独特的水分和土壤环境，以维持自身的生存和最适生长。植物的水分关系是喀斯特地区特有植物种类适应环境的核心生理生态学问题之一。贵州喀斯特地区石漠化正日益加剧，因此，对贵州植物水力结构和环境适应性进行研究具有重要的意义。 目前，国内外学者在“冲洗法”中使用的不同冲洗溶质可能对植物木质部水力结构的测定结果等产生较大影响，因此本文首先研究了三种溶质的冲洗溶液对毛白杨(Populus tomentosa)和油松(Pinus tabulaeformis)枝条的水力导度和抵抗空穴化能力的影响。实验结果表明: 相对于去离子水，用0.01 M 的草酸和0.03 M KCl溶液作为冲洗溶液，均导致毛白杨木质部导管和油松管胞的水力导度测定值的增大。KCl导致毛白杨和油松木质部抵抗空穴化能力的测定值提高，草酸导致杨树抵抗空穴化能力测定值增强但导致油松抗空穴化能力测定值显著(P<0.01)减弱。小枝水平上，毛白杨和油松的水分运输效率和抗空穴化能力之间没有显著相关性。另外，在截枝实验中发现毛白杨小枝木质部水力导度随长度增加变化不大，而油松枝条的木质部水力导度有逐渐增大的趋势。以上的实验结果表明不同溶质下毛白杨和油松枝条的木质部水力导度和抵抗空穴化能力不同，草酸和KCl可能对木质部管道系统及纹孔处的果胶等产生作用，从而使毛白杨和油松的水力结构发生变化。毛白杨与油松水力结构在去离子水、草酸和KCl的作用下的不同结果及两物种截枝试验下水力导度的不同变化趋势，表明导管运输系统和管胞运输系统可能具有不同的水分运输影响因素。 在贵州花江、普定、荔波等地选择当地森林中39种优势木本植物作为研究对象，对其枝条的水力结构进行研究，结果表明: 该地区优势木本植物的水力结构与其他森林类型相比，其木质部抗栓塞化能力介于热带雨林和热带干热森林之间，而水力导度高于各森林类型的平均值。在石漠化程度不同的地区，植物总体的水力导度和水分运输的安全性没有呈现出明显的规律，但是同种植物在较为干旱的严重石漠化地区，其木质部安全性较高，植物在周围环境的影响下木质部水力结构朝着更适应周围环境的方向发展。 贵州喀斯特地区常绿植物和落叶植物的水力结构差异较为明显(P<0.05)。落叶树种主要在夏季生长，其最大水力导度较高，而冬季依靠落叶等方式度过不利的生长环境，因此其木质部安全性较常绿树种更为脆弱。总体而言，贵州喀斯特森林优势木本植物的在水力导度与安全性之间存在权衡关系，说明在大尺度水平上随着水力导度的提高即水分运输效率的提高，植物木质部抗空穴化的能力降低。

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

M-technology, Consumption and Gambling: A Conceptualisation of Consumer Vulnerability in an M-gambling Marketplace

Technology imbued m-marketing systems influence the consumptive lives of citizens, by facilitating anytime, anywhere business-to-consumer interactions. Business pundits’ enthusiasm towards mobile services (m-services) has been driven by the promise of a marketspace context involving seamless, business-to-consumer interactions that can be simultaneously impulse-driven, highly entertaining and omnipresent. Arguably, gambling too is impulse-driven, exciting and easily accessible. An important question that needs to be addressed is: how the convergence of mobile technology and gambling will impact the millennial consumer. The authors address this question by examining the contextually bounded interactions between internal and external factors that make mobile phone users potentially vulnerable during m-gambling interactions. By examining key themes that describe the convergence of m-technology and gambling, we clarify the experiential nature of m-gambling and its relationship to consumer vulnerability.

Response and damage evaluation of reinforced concrete frames subjected to blast loading

Bomb attacks carried out by terrorists, targeting high occupancy buildings, have become increasingly common in recent times. Large numbers of casualties and property damage result from overpressure of the blast followed by failing of structural elements. Understanding the blast response of multi-storey buildings and evaluating their remaining life have therefore become important. Response and damage analysis of single structural components, such as columns or slabs, to explosive loads have been examined in the literature, but the studies on blast response and damage analysis of structural frames in multi-storey buildings is limited and this is necessary for assessing the vulnerability of them. This paper investigates the blast response and damage evaluation of reinforced concrete (RC) frames, designed for normal gravity loads, in order to evaluate their remaining life. Numerical modelling and analysis were carried out using the explicit finite element software, LS DYNA. The modelling and analysis takes into consideration reinforcement details together and material performance under higher strain rates. Damage indices for columns are calculated based on their residual and original capacities. Numerical results generated in the can be used to identify relationships between the blast load parameters and the column damage. Damage index curve will provide a simple means for assessing the damage to a typical multi-storey building RC frame under an external bomb circumstance.

The moment of exchange : risk, vulnerability, responsibility

Any cycle of production and exchange – be it economic, cultural or aesthetic – involves an element of risk. It involves uncertainty, unpredictability, and a potential for new insight and innovation (the boom) as well as blockages, crises and breakdown (the bust). In performance, the risks are plentiful – economic, political, social, physical and psychological. The risks people are willing to take depend on their position in the exchange (performer, producer, venue manager or spectator), and their aesthetic preferences. This paper considers the often uncertain, confronting or ‘risky’ moment of exchange between performer, spectator and culture in Live Art practices. Encompassing body art, autobiographical art, site-specific art and other sorts of performative intervention in the public sphere, Live Art eschews the artifice of theatre, breaking down barriers between art and life, artist and spectator, to speak back to the public sphere, and challenge assumptions about bodies, identities, memories, relationships and histories. In the process, Live Art frequently privileges an uncertain, confrontational or ‘risky’ mode of exchange between performer, spectator and culture, as a way of challenging power structures. This paper examines the moment of exchange in terms of risk, vulnerability, responsibility and ethics. Why the romance with ‘risky’ behaviours and exchanges? Who is really taking a risk? What risk? With whose permission (or lack thereof)? What potential does a ‘risky’ exchange hold to destabilise aesthetic, social or political norms? Where lies the fine line between subversive intervention in the public sphere and sheer self-indulgence? What are the social and ethical implications of a moment of exchange that puts bodies, beliefs or social boundaries at ‘risk’? In this paper, these questions are addressed with reference to historical and contemporary practices under the broadly defined banner of Live Art, from the early work of Abrovamic and Burden, through to contemporary Australian practitioners like Fiona McGregor.

Elliptic curve algorithm integration in the secure shell transport layer

This document describes algorithms based on Elliptic Cryptography (ECC) for use within the Secure Shell (SSH) transport protocol. In particular, it specifies Elliptic Curve Diffie-Hellman (ECDH) key agreement, Elliptic Curve Menezes-Qu-Vanstone (ECMQV) key agreement, and Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) for use in the SSH Transport Layer protocol.