Tribalism as a Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence from Voting in the 2007 Kenyan Elections

Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, hardly any of the studies have sought to explain ethnic voting following a rational choice framework. Using data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the December 2007 Kenyan elections, we find that the expected benefits associated with a win by each of the presidential candidates varied significantly across voters from different ethnic groups. We hypothesize that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model. We test the predictions of this model using data of voter turnout in the December 2007 elections and find that turnout across ethnic groups varied systematically with expected benefits. The results suggest that individuals participated in the elections primarily to avoid the maximum regret should a candidate from another ethnic group win. The results therefore offer credence to the minimax regret model as proposed by Ferejohn and Fiorina (1974) and refute the Downsian expected utility model.

The European Elections in France: The paradox of a more European yet more eurosceptic campaign. EPIN Commentaries No. 16, 6 February 2014

Despite the probable shift towards European rather than national issues in the European election campaign in France, the combined effects of the economic crisis and the unpopularity of political leaders could crystallise a ‘protest’ vote for both national and European leaders, and for the EU as a whole, explain the authors in this EPIN Commentary.

How to reconcile the EU border paradox? The concurrence of refugee reception and deterrence. IES Policy Brief 2015/4, November 2015

The refugee crisis that unfolded in Europe in the summer of 2015 questions the effectiveness of European border and refugee policies. The breakdown of the Dublin and Schengen rules due to chaotic situations at the borders in the Balkans marks a critical juncture for the EU. We consider this breakdown as a consequence of a long-lasting co-operation crisis among EU Member States. The most recent Council decision responds to this co-operation crisis (Council Decision 12098/15). This Policy Brief analyses EU policy and politics and argues that plans for refugee relocation and reception centres as well as the use of qualified majority voting in the Council can unfold a dynamic that helps to solve the co-operation crisis. However, underlying the problems of co-operation and effectiveness is the EU’s border paradox: while EU border policy works towards refugee deterrence, EU asylum policy aims at refugee protection. The EU’s approach in regulating borders and asylum can be understood in terms of ‘organised hypocrisy’ (Brunsson, 1993). Reconciling the paradox calls for overcoming such hypocrisy.

An Apparent Paradox: Attenuation of Phenylephrine-mediated Calcium Mobilization and Hyperreactivity to Phenylephrine in Contralateral Carotid After Balloon Injury

Balloon catheter injury promotes hyperreactivity to phenylephrine (Phe) in the contralateral carotid. Phe-induced contraction involves calcium mobilization, a process that may be sensitive to reactive oxygen species. In this study, we investigated whether increased reactivity to Phe in the contralateral carotid is due to alterations in calcium mobilization by Phe and reactive oxygen species signaling. Concentration-response curves to Phe were obtained in control and contralateral arteries 4 days after balloon injury. Tiron did not modify E(max) to Phe in control arteries but reduced this parameter in the contralateral carotid to control levels. Moreover, immunofluorescence to dihydroethydine showed increased basal oxidative stress in the contralateral artery compared with control artery. Intracellular calcium mobilization by Phe in the contralateral artery was not different from control, but Phe-induced extracellular calcium mobilization was reduced in the contralateral artery compared with that in the control. These data were confirmed by confocal microscopy using Fluo 3-AM. Tiron and SC-236 increased Phe-induced calcium influx in the contralateral artery, which was similar to controls in the same conditions. However, catalase did not modify this response. Taken together, our results suggest that superoxide anions and prostanoids from cyclooxygenase-2 alter pathways downstream of alpha(1)-adrenoceptor activation in the contralateral carotid in response to injury. This results in reduced Phe-induced calcium influx, despite hyperreactivity to Phe.

Satisfaction with housework: Examining the paradox

This paper examines men's and women's levels of satisfaction with the domestic division of labour. In most households women continue to undertake the bulk of childcare and housework duties and consequently spend significantly greater amounts of time on domestic labour than men. Men report high levels of satisfaction with these arrangements, but surprisingly we find that almost half of our sample of women also report satisfaction with these arrangements. This finding has been reported in studies from several countries. Our paper attempts to explain this apparent paradox. Using data from a recent national survey in Australia we explore gender differences in levels of satisfaction with the domestic division of labour and examine women's levels of satisfaction with household work arrangements in relation to a number of factors such as labour force attachment, attitudes to Sender roles and husbands' participation in domestic labour. Our findings raise implications for the meaning of equity within the household.

Does the Mediterranean paradox extend to abdominal aortic aneurysm?

Background We sought to test, in men Undergoing ultrasound screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) in Western Australia, clinical impressions that the prevalence of AAA is high in Dutch migrants and low in migrants from Mediterranean countries. Methods In a. population-based trial, men undergoing screening for AAA completed a questionnaire covering their place of birth, smoking habits and consumption of alcohol, meat, fish, salt and milk. We examined the variation by place of birth in the mean, median, 95th and 99th centiles of infrarenal aortic diameter and the prevalences of AAA defined by criteria of 30 mm, 50 mm and by the 95th and 99th centiles, in men born in Australia, of aortic diameter adjusted for height. Findings Overall, 12 203 (70.5%) of the 19 583 men took up the invitation to undergo ultrasound screening. The prevalence of AAA defined by absolute diameter was higher than average in men born in The Netherlands or Scotland (more of whom had ever smoked or smoked currently) and lower in men of Mediterranean origin (more of whom drank alcohol currently). There were no consistent relationships with simple dietary: data. Correction of aortic diameter for height eliminated the significant heterogeneity in prevalence of large AAA, although a threefold variation in prevalence of AAA exceeding the 95th centile of height-adjusted diameter in Australian men persisted. Interpretation In our cohort of men, which is subject to both 'healthy migrant' and 'survivor' effects, if it exists at all, any 'Mediterranean paradox' for AAA is more modest than that for coronary disease.

Simpson's paradox: A logically benign, empirically treacherous hydra

This article examines Simpson's paradox as applied to the theory of probabilites and percentages. The author discusses possible flaws in the paradox and compares it to the Sure Thing Principle, statistical inference, causal inference and probabilistic analyses of causation.

Postmaterialist and economic voting in Australia, 1990-98

Recent research in Australian sociology and political science has debated the extent to which postmaterialist values and economic self-interest shape voting in federal elections. Some researchers have argued that postmaterialist values have partly displaced materialist concerns with physical security and economic well-being in Australian public life. This displacement, coupled with the adoption by major political parties of postmaterialist 'quality of life' issues such as the environment, has meant that voting in Australia has come to be more dependent on postmaterialist values than on perceptions of economic interest. Other research, however, has found no relationship between postmaterialist values and voting behaviour, while economic evaluations remain a strong determinant of voting behaviour. Part of the disagreement reflects methodological differences in the research. But different methodological problems compromise each of the previous studies. In this paper we use data from the 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1998 Australian Election Studies to investigate postmaterialist and economic voting in the Commonwealth House of Representatives and the Senate. Using various statistical methods, we first explore bivariate relationships between key variables and then use multivariate models of postmaterialist and economic voting to adjudicate between the contending positions.