Detecting Deceit – Guessing or Assessing? Study on the Applicability of Veracity Assessment Methods in Human Intelligence

Intelligence from a human source, that is falsely thought to be true, is potentially more harmful than a total lack of it. The veracity assessment of the gathered intelligence is one of the most important phases of the intelligence process. Lie detection and veracity assessment methods have been studied widely but a comprehensive analysis of these methods’ applicability is lacking. There are some problems related to the efficacy of lie detection and veracity assessment. According to a conventional belief an almighty lie detection method, that is almost 100% accurate and suitable for any social encounter, exists. However, scientific studies have shown that this is not the case, and popular approaches are often over simplified. The main research question of this study was: What is the applicability of veracity assessment methods, which are reliable and are based on scientific proof, in terms of the following criteria? o Accuracy, i.e. probability of detecting deception successfully o Ease of Use, i.e. easiness to apply the method correctly o Time Required to apply the method reliably o No Need for Special Equipment o Unobtrusiveness of the method In order to get an answer to the main research question, the following supporting research questions were answered first: What kinds of interviewing and interrogation techniques exist and how could they be used in the intelligence interview context, what kinds of lie detection and veracity assessment methods exist that are reliable and are based on scientific proof and what kind of uncertainty and other limitations are included in these methods? Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing topic related studies and other papers. After the search phase, the understanding of the existing lie detection and veracity assessment methods was established through a meta-analysis. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted to compare scientifically valid lie detection and veracity assessment methods in terms of the assessment criteria. In addition, a field study was arranged to get a firsthand experience of the applicability of different lie detection and veracity assessment methods. The Studied Features of Discourse and the Studied Features of Nonverbal Communication gained the highest ranking in overall applicability. They were assessed to be the easiest and fastest to apply, and to have required temporal and contextual sensitivity. The Plausibility and Inner Logic of the Statement, the Method for Assessing the Credibility of Evidence and the Criteria Based Content Analysis were also found to be useful, but with some limitations. The Discourse Analysis and the Polygraph were assessed to be the least applicable. Results from the field study support these findings. However, it was also discovered that the most applicable methods are not entirely troublefree either. In addition, this study highlighted that three channels of information, Content, Discourse and Nonverbal Communication, can be subjected to veracity assessment methods that are scientifically defensible. There is at least one reliable and applicable veracity assessment method for each of the three channels. All of the methods require disciplined application and a scientific working approach. There are no quick gains if high accuracy and reliability is desired. Since most of the current lie detection studies are concentrated around a scenario, where roughly half of the assessed people are totally truthful and the other half are liars who present a well prepared cover story, it is proposed that in future studies lie detection and veracity assessment methods are tested against partially truthful human sources. This kind of test setup would highlight new challenges and opportunities for the use of existing and widely studied lie detection methods, as well as for the modern ones that are still under development.

Increasing scepticism toward potential liars: effects of existential threat on veracity judgments and the moderating role of honesty norm activation

With the present research, we investigated effects of existential threat on veracity judgments. According to several meta-analyses, people judge potentially deceptive messages of other people as true rather than as false (so-called truth bias). This judgmental bias has been shown to depend on how people weigh the error of judging a true message as a lie (error 1) and the error of judging a lie as a true message (error 2). The weight of these errors has been further shown to be affected by situational variables. Given that research on terror management theory has found evidence that mortality salience (MS) increases the sensitivity toward the compliance of cultural norms, especially when they are of focal attention, we assumed that when the honesty norm is activated, MS affects judgmental error weighing and, consequently, judgmental biases. Specifically, activating the norm of honesty should decrease the weight of error 1 (the error of judging a true message as a lie) and increase the weight of error 2 (the error of judging a lie as a true message) when mortality is salient. In a first study, we found initial evidence for this assumption. Furthermore, the change in error weighing should reduce the truth bias, automatically resulting in better detection accuracy of actual lies and worse accuracy of actual true statements. In two further studies, we manipulated MS and honesty norm activation before participants judged several videos containing actual truths or lies. Results revealed evidence for our prediction. Moreover, in Study 3, the truth bias was increased after MS when group solidarity was previously emphasized.

The veracity of the Five Books of Moses : argued from the undesigned coincidences to be found in them, when compared in their several parts /

Mode of access: Internet.

The veracity of the Gospels & Acts of the Apostles : argued from the undesigned coincidences to be found in them, when compared 1. with eachother,-- and 2. with Josephus.

Mode of access: Internet.

The veracity of the historical books of the Old Testament : from the conclusion of the Pentateuch, to the opening of the prophets, argued from the undesigned coincidences to be found in them, when compared in their several parts: being a continuation of the argument for the veracity of the five books of Moses /

Mode of access: Internet.

Undesigned coincidences : in the writings both of the Old and New Testaments, an argument of their veracity, with an appendix containing undesigned coincidences between the Gospels, and Acts, and Josephus /

With this is bound: Paley, William. Horae Paulinae; or, The truth of the Scripture history of St. Paul evinced. New York, 1854.

Aspectos médicos e sociais no atendimento oftalmológico de urgência

Purpose: A survey was carried out on one hundred patients of the Emergency Service of the Ophthalmology Department of the Hospital das Clinicas of the University of Campinas (UNICAMP), in order to analyze the personal characteristics and the barriers against getting resolving ophthalmologic assistance. Variables, were the following: sex, age, home town, average distance between the place of initial symptoms and first visit to the hospital, time spent between the first examination (if performed in any other service) and the examination performed at the Hospital das Clinicas of University of Campinas, diagnosis, veracity of emergency, need to refer patients previously seen in other services to our Service and possibility of assistance and treatment at a secondary level. Methods: The sample showed the following characteristics: distances between 20 and 100 kilometers covered by 50.0% of the patients to be seen at University of Campinas. 75.0% of those patients needed someone to stay with them and 67.0% came from other municipalities. The long distances covered meant additional expenses for the treatment of diseases which should be treated locally. Results: Among the patients referred to University of Campinas by ophthalmologists of other services, 87.5% could have their diseases treated at a secondary level of assistance and 66.7% of real emergencies and 60% of false emergencies took longer than 7 days to reach the emergency room of University of Campinas. This shows the poor infrastructure of secondary services regarding excellence of emergency care and education of patients. Conclusions: We recommend education of general physicians and ophthalmologists for emergency eye care and also the supply of both secondary and tertiary public services or medicare, strategically setup in the whole state of Sao Paulo.

Práticas corporais e grande saúde: um encontro possível

Physical Activity produces health! When admitting the precocious veracity that the affirmation introduces, we reconstruct it in ideological dimension to put again the intentions of the physical activity on the scope of the health. To support this displacement, we search endorsement in the concept of Great Health forged in the philosophy of Nietzsche and of this concept we launch considerations about body practices to argue the care from physiological imperatives, worried about the vital necessities of the body. These possibilities only appear when it gave power to the meeting of the subject with himself and with the other - as operated in the body practices context. It is the quality of this meeting that allows trying the Great Health.

Clifford Geertz, 1926-2006: Meaning, method, and Indonesian economic history

Clifford Geertz was best known for his pioneering excursions into symbolic or interpretive anthropology, especially in relation to Indonesia. Less well recognised are his stimulating explorations of the modern economic history of Indonesia. His thinking on the interplay of economics and culture was most fully and vigorously expounded in Agricultural Involution. That book deployed a succinctly packaged past in order to solve a pressing contemporary puzzle, Java's enduring rural poverty and apparent social immobility. Initially greeted with acclaim, later and ironically the book stimulated the deep and multi-layered research that in fact led to the eventual rejection of Geertz's central contentions. But the veracity or otherwise of Geertz's inventive characterisation of Indonesian economic development now seems irrelevant; what is profoundly important is the extraordinary stimulus he gave to a generation of scholars to explore Indonesia's modern economic history with a depth and intensity previously unimaginable.

Working memory correlates of three symptom clusters in schizophrenia

This study was designed to examine whether discrete working memory deficits underlie positive, negative and disorganised symptoms of schizophrenia. Symptom dimension ratings were assigned to 52 outpatients with schizophrenia (ICD-10 criteria), using items drawn from the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Linear regression and correlational analyses were conducted to examine whether symptom dimension scores were related to performance on several tests of working memory function. Severity of negative symptoms correlated with reduced production of words during a verbal fluency task, impaired ability to hold letter and number sequences on-line and manipulate them Simultaneously, reduced performance during a dual task, and compromised visuospatial working memory under distraction-free conditions. Severity of disorganisation symptoms correlated with impaired visuospatial working memory under conditions of distraction, failure of inhibition during a verbal fluency task, perseverative responding on a test of set-shifting ability, and impaired ability to judge the veracity of simple declarative statements. Severity of positive symptoms was uncorrelated with performance on any of the measures examined. The present study provides evidence that the positive, negative and disorganised symptom dimensions of the PANSS constitute independent clusters, associated with unique patterns of working memory impairment. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Manual de procedimentos: gestão do imobilizado

Trabalho de Projecto para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Armindo Licínio da Silva Macedo

Programa de manutenção de aeronaves das companhias de aviação de baixo custo

Este trabalho aborda o Programa de Manutenção de Aeronaves das companhias de aviação de baixo custo, tendo como foco a análise e identificação dos requisitos legais e das metodologias de desenvolvimento de um Programa de Manutenção de uma aeronave e a comparação dos custos de manutenção de companhias de baixo custo com as companhias regulares. A aplicação eficaz de um programa de manutenção, para além de reduzir os seus custos, tem um impacto positivo na segurança, economia da manutenção e na fiabilidade de despacho. A metodologia utilizada foi a análise de informação de publicações e artigos. Com base na revisão de literaturas especializadas, fez-se uma selecção dos diversos aspectos necessários para se obter um Programa de Manutenção, o que permitiu construir o caso de estudo e efectuar a análise dos custos inerentes de manutenção de um operador aéreo de baixo custo e de um operador aéreo regular. Os resultados da análise permitiram chegar a veracidade da hipótese de que do ponto de vista de manutenção é igualmente seguro ou não seguro voar numa companhia de baixo custo e numa companhia regular, assim independentemente do tipo de companhia, ambas devem cumprir os requisitos para aprovação do PMA imposto pela autoridade aeronáutica, para garantir a aeronavegabilidade das aeronaves, ou seja, a sua segurança para a condição de voo, sem pôr em causa o carimbo baixo custo ou regular da companhia.

Para uma leitura não biográfica da obra de Mário de Sá Carneiro (e uma apreciação de o modernismo em Mário de Sá-Carneiro de Fernando Cabral Martins)

Este artigo pretende sublinhar a importância de entender a obra de Mário de Sá- Carneiro através de uma leitura atenta da sua produção literária que não procura provas da “veracidade” dessa leitura na biografia do poeta do Orpheu. Partindo de uma análise do trabalho crítico de Fernando Cabral Martins, levanta-se a problemática de deturpar uma análise de crítica literária com abordagens influenciadas por normas de história da literatura que inserem a obra no seu contexto histórico, o que tem sido o caso na recepção da obra de Sá-Carneiro, onde o mito do autor tende a ofuscar o seu legado literário. Assim, este artigo questiona se em O Modernismo em Mário de Sá-Carneiro, Fernando Cabral Martins consegue libertar a obra sá-carneiriana da sombra do poeta biográfico, e oferece uma avaliação panorâmica da tradição crítica dedicada ao autor, apontando para casos de interpretações que se prenderam com questões que ficam para fora do texto, como tem sido o caso com a natureza homossexual da obra e do homem.

Mousetrapping: the ordeals of interpretation

Tese de doutoramento, Estudos Literários (Teoria da Literatura), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Letras, 2012

Positive solutions to find a job: Cultural mismatches between companies and employees

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics