Evolution of the landscape of Madeira Island: long-term vegetation dynamics

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate historical change of the landscape of Madeira Island and to assess spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. In current research diverse “retrospective techniques”, such as landscape repeat photography, dendrochronology, and research of historical records were used. These, combined with vegetation relevés, aimed to gather information about landscape change, disturbance history, and vegetation successional patterns. It was found that landscape change, throughout 125 years, was higher in the last five decades manly driven by farming abandonment, building growth and exotic vegetation coverage increase. Pristine vegetation was greatly destroyed since early settlement and by the end of the nineteenth century native vegetation was highly devastated due to recurrent antropogenic disturbances. These actions also helped to block plant succession and to modify floristical assemblages, affecting as well as species richness. In places with less hemeroby, although significant growth of vegetation of lower seral stages was detected, the vegetation of most mature stages headed towards unbalance between recovery and loss, being also very vulnerable to exotic species encroachment. Recovery by native vegetation also occurred in areas formerly occupied by exotic plants and agriculture but it was almost negligible. Vegetation recovery followed the successional model currently proposed, attesting the model itself. Yet, succession was slower than espected, due to lack of favourable conditions and to recurrent disturbances. Probable tempus of each seral stage was obtained by growth rates of woody taxa estimated through dendrochronology. The exotic trees which were the dominant trees in the past (Castanea sativa and Pinus pinaster) almost vanished. Eucalyptus globulus, the current main tree of the exotic forest is being replaced by other cover types as Acacia mearnsii. The latter, along with Arundo donax, Cytisus scoparius and Pittosporum undulatum are currently the exotic species with higher invasive behaviour. However, many other exotic species have also proved to be highly pervasive and came together with the ones referred above to prevent native vegetation regeneration, to diminish biological diversity, and to block early successional phases delaying native forest recovery.

Evolution of the landscape of Madeira Island: long-term vegetation dynamics

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate historical change of the landscape of Madeira Island and to assess spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. In current research diverse “retrospective techniques”, such as landscape repeat photography, dendrochronology, and research of historical records were used. These, combined with vegetation relevés, aimed to gather information about landscape change, disturbance history, and vegetation successional patterns. It was found that landscape change, throughout 125 years, was higher in the last five decades manly driven by farming abandonment, building growth and exotic vegetation coverage increase. Pristine vegetation was greatly destroyed since early settlement and by the end of the nineteenth century native vegetation was highly devastated due to recurrent antropogenic disturbances. These actions also helped to block plant succession and to modify floristical assemblages, affecting as well as species richness. In places with less hemeroby, although significant growth of vegetation of lower seral stages was detected, the vegetation of most mature stages headed towards unbalance between recovery and loss, being also very vulnerable to exotic species encroachment. Recovery by native vegetation also occurred in areas formerly occupied by exotic plants and agriculture but it was almost negligible. Vegetation recovery followed the successional model currently proposed, attesting the model itself. Yet, succession was slower than espected, due to lack of favourable conditions and to recurrent disturbances. Probable tempus of each seral stage was obtained by growth rates of woody taxa estimated through dendrochronology. The exotic trees which were the dominant trees in the past (Castanea sativa and Pinus pinaster) almost vanished. Eucalyptus globulus, the current main tree of the exotic forest is being replaced by other cover types as Acacia mearnsii. The latter, along with Arundo donax, Cytisus scoparius and Pittosporum undulatum are currently the exotic species with higher invasive behaviour. However, many other exotic species have also proved to be highly pervasive and came together with the ones referred above to prevent native vegetation regeneration, to diminish biological diversity, and to block early successional phases delaying native forest recovery.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality.

BACKGROUND: The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993-2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. RESULTS: Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths-with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths-with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. CONCLUSION: Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina.

Long-term dynamics of Methone, Anthe and Pallene

We numerically investigate the long-term dynamics of the Saturn's small satellites Methone (S/2004 S1), Anthe (S/2007 S4) and Pallene (S/2004 S2). In our numerical integrations, these satellites are disturbed by non-spherical shape of Saturn and the six nearest regular satellites. The stability of the small bodies is studied here by analyzing long-term evolution of their orbital elements.We show that long-term evolution of Pallene is dictated by a quasi secular resonance involving the ascending nodes (12) and longitudes of pericentric distances (pi) of Mimas (subscript 1) and Pallene (subscript 2), which critical argument is pi(2) - pi(1) - Omega(1) + Omega(2) Long-term orbital evolution of Methone and Anthe are probably chaotic since: i) their orbits randomly cross the orbit of Mimas in time scales of thousands years); ii) long-term numerical simulations involving both small satellites are strongly affected by small changes in the initial conditions.

Long-term dynamics of adaptive evolution in a globally important coccolithophore to ocean acidification

Recent evolution experiments have revealed that marine phytoplankton may adapt to global change, for example to ocean warming or acidification. Long-term adaptation to novel environments is a dynamic process and phenotypic change can take place thousands of generations after exposure to novel conditions. Using the longest evolution experiment performed in any marine species to date (4 yrs, = 2100 generations), we show that in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, long-term adaptation to ocean acidification is complex and initial phenotypic responses may revert for important traits. While fitness increased continuously, calcification was restored within the first 500 generations but later reduced in response to selection, enhancing physiological declines of calcification in response to ocean acidification. Interestingly, calcification was not constitutively reduced but revealed rates similar to control treatments when transferred back to present-day CO2 conditions. Growth rate increased with time in controls and adaptation treatments, although the effect size of adaptation assessed through reciprocal assay experiments varied. Several trait changes were associated with selection for higher cell division rates under laboratory conditions, such as reduced cell size and lower particulate organic carbon content per cell. Our results show that phytoplankton may evolve phenotypic plasticity that can affect biogeochemically important traits, such as calcification, in an unforeseen way under future ocean conditions.

A new approach on the long term dynamics of neo's under Yarkorsky effect

To calculate the force associated with the Yarkovsky effect the temperature distribution on the surface of the asteroid should be determined; it depends on the asteroid orbit, size and shape, spin axis orientation and period, mass, density of surface layers, albedo, thermal conductivity, capacity and IR emissivity of the material. The uncertainty of many of these parameters invites to develop simplified methods to calculate the influence of the Yarkovsky effect on long term dynamics of asteroids. In this paper we present one of this method based in a special perturbation procedure developed in our group.

Long-term dynamics of fast rotating tethers around planetary satellites

We derive a semi-analytic formulation that enables the study of the long-term dynamics of fast-rotating inert tethers around planetary satellites. These equations take into account the coupling between the translational and rotational motion, which has a non-negligible impact on the dynamics, as the orbital motion of the tether center of mass strongly depends on the tether plane of rotation and its spin rate, and vice-versa. We use these governing equations to explore the effects of this coupling on the dynamics, the lifetime of frozen orbits and the precession of the plane of rotation of the tether.

Long-term (1956-1999) dynamics of phosphorus in a shallow, subtropical Chinese lake with the possible effects of cyanobacterial blooms

This paper describes the long-term dynamics of phosphorus concentrations in both the lake water and the sediment in a subtropical Chinese lake, Lake Donghu. The total phosphorus (TP) concentration in the lake water experienced an upward trend from the 1950s, and peaked in 1983/1984, but declined obviously afterwards. From the 1950s to the 1990s, TP content in the upper 10 cm sediment of the lake increased steadily from 0.307 to 1.68 mg Pg DW-1 at Station I and from 0.151 to 0.89 mg Pg DW-1 at Station II, respectively. The TP increase in the lake water before mid-1980s was mainly attributed to the massive input of sewage P. The outbreak of cyanobacterial blooms coincided with the peaks of TP and Orthophosphate (PO4-P) in the water in mid-1980s, and the maximum TP of the water reached as high as 1.349 mg/1 at Station I and 0.757 mg/l at Station II (in 1984), respectively. The declines of TP and PO4-P in the water after mid-1980s was coincident with the disappearance of cyanobacterial bloom. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contrasting long-term records of biomass burning in wet and dry savannas of equatorial East Africa

Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.