The effect of climate change on the variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex

With extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex being a key link for stratosphere–troposphere influences, its evolution into the twenty-first century is important for projections of changing surface climate in response to greenhouse gases. Variability of the stratospheric vortex is examined using a state-of-the-art climate model and a suite of specifically developed vortex diagnostics. The model has a fully coupled ocean and a fully resolved stratosphere. Analysis of the standard stratospheric zonal mean wind diagnostic shows no significant increase over the twenty-first century in the number of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) from its historical value of 0.7 events per decade, although the monthly distribution of SSWs does vary, with events becoming more evenly dispersed throughout the winter. However, further analyses using geometric-based vortex diagnostics show that the vortex mean state becomes weaker, and the vortex centroid is climatologically more equatorward by up to 2.5°, especially during early winter. The results using these diagnostics not only characterize the vortex structure and evolution but also emphasize the need for vortex-centric diagnostics over zonally averaged measures. Finally, vortex variability is subdivided into wave-1 (displaced) and -2 (split) components, and it is implied that vortex displacement events increase in frequency under climate change, whereas little change is observed in splitting events.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Solution of the pulse width modulation problem using orthogonal polynomials and Korteweg-de Vries equations

The mathematical underpinning of the pulse width modulation (PWM) technique lies in the attempt to represent “accurately” harmonic waveforms using only square forms of a fixed height. The accuracy can be measured using many norms, but the quality of the approximation of the analog signal (a harmonic form) by a digital one (simple pulses of a fixed high voltage level) requires the elimination of high order harmonics in the error term. The most important practical problem is in “accurate” reproduction of sine-wave using the same number of pulses as the number of high harmonics eliminated. We describe in this paper a complete solution of the PWM problem using Padé approximations, orthogonal polynomials, and solitons. The main result of the paper is the characterization of discrete pulses answering the general PWM problem in terms of the manifold of all rational solutions to Korteweg-de Vries equations.

Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium - an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e. g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

Estimating ECAP threshold from the variability of the response

Electrical compound action potentials (ECAPs) of the cochlear nerve are used clinically for quick and efficient cochlear implant parameter setting. The ECAP is the aggregate response of nerve fibres at various distances from the recording electrode, and the magnitude of the ECAP is therefore related to the number of fibres excited by a particular stimulus. Current methods, such as the masker-probe or alternating polarity methods, use the ECAP magnitude at various stimulus levels to estimate the neural threshold, from which the parameters are calculated. However, the correlation between ECAP threshold and perceptual threshold is not always good, with ECAP threshold typically being much higher than perceptual threshold. The lower correlation is partly due to the very different pulse rates used for ECAPs (below 100 Hz) and clinical programs (hundreds of Hz up to several kHz). Here we introduce a new method of estimating ECAP threshold for cochlear implants based upon the variability of the response. At neural threshold, where some but not all fibers respond, there is a different response each trial. This inter-trial variability can be detected overlaying the constant variability of the system noise. The large stimulus artefact, which requires additional trials for artefact rejection in the standard ECAP magnitude methods, is not consequential, as it has little variability. The variability method therefore consists of simply presenting a pulse and recording the ECAP, and as such is quicker than other methods. It also has the potential to be run at high rates like clinical programs, potentially improving the correlation with behavioural threshold. Preliminary data is presented that shows a detectable variability increase shortly after probe offset, at probe levels much lower than those producing a detectable ECAP magnitude. Care must be taken, however, to avoid saturation of the recording amplifier saturation; in our experiments we found a gain of 300 to be optimal.

Genetic variability of the Amazon River prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum (Decapoda, Caridea, Palaemonidae)

The freshwater prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum is widely distributed in South America, and occupies habitats with a wide range of salinities. Several investigations have revealed the existence of wide intraspecific variability among different populations, although the understanding of this variability is still fragmentary and incomplete. We compared and characterized inland and coastal populations of M. amazonicum from Brazil, using molecular data (16S and COI mtDNA) to describe the degree of variability, structure, and relationships among them. Genetic divergence rates among populations showed variability at the intraspecific level. All the analyses evidenced significant genetic divergence among populations, structuring them in three groups: I-inland waters of the Amazonian Hydrographic Region (HR); II-Parana/Paraguay HR; and III-coastal systems of northern and northeastern Brazil. Phylogenetic reconstructions revealed that the populations form a single monophyletic clade, which supports their characterization as a single species. Clade I was a sister clade of that formed by clades II and III, which were themselves sister clades. Populations from Sertaozinho/Miguelopolis and Avare, introduced into the state of Sao Paulo, may have originated from natural populations in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Para, respectively. Geographical isolation probably contributed to the observed variation, and if this isolation continues. M. amazonicum may undergo speciation within its broad geographical distribution. The sequences obtained here can be used as name-tags for population identification, and the DNA barcodes are useful to identify the origin of specimens used in different freshwater-prawn cultures or introduced populations of unknown origin.

Photometric variability of the Be star CoRoT-ID 102761769

Context. Classical Be stars are rapid rotators of spectral type late O to early A and luminosity class V-III, which exhibit Balmer emission lines and often a near infrared excess originating in an equatorially concentrated circumstellar envelope, both produced by sporadic mass ejection episodes. The causes of the abnormal mass loss (the so-called Be phenomenon) are as yet unknown. Aims. For the first time, we can now study in detail Be stars outside the Earth's atmosphere with sufficient temporal resolution. We investigate the variability of the Be Star CoRoT-ID 102761769 observed with the CoRoT satellite in the exoplanet field during the initial run. Methods. One low-resolution spectrum of the star was obtained with the INT telescope at the Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos. A time series analysis was performed using both cleanest and singular spectrum analysis algorithms to the CoRoT light curve. To identify the pulsation modes of the observed frequencies, we computed a set of models representative of CoRoT-ID 102761769 by varying its main physical parameters inside the uncertainties discussed. Results. We found two close frequencies related to the star. They are 2.465 c d(-1) (28.5 mu Hz) and 2.441 c d(-1) (28.2 mu Hz). The precision to which those frequencies were found is 0.018 c d(-1) (0.2 mu Hz). The projected stellar rotation was estimated to be 120 km s(-1) from the Fourier transform of spectral lines. If CoRoT-ID 102761769 is a typical Galactic Be star it rotates near the critical velocity. The critical rotation frequency of a typical B5-6 star is about 3.5 c d(-1) (40.5 mu Hz), which implies that the above frequencies are really caused by stellar pulsations rather than star's rotation.

Cyclic variability of the circumstellar disk of the Be star zeta Tauri II. Testing the 2D global disk oscillation model

Context. About 2/3 of the Be stars present the so-called V/R variations, a phenomenon characterized by the quasi-cyclic variation in the ratio between the violet and red emission peaks of the HI emission lines. These variations are generally explained by global oscillations in the circumstellar disk forming a one-armed spiral density pattern that precesses around the star with a period of a few years. Aims. This paper presents self-consistent models of polarimetric, photometric, spectrophotometric, and interferometric observations of the classical Be star zeta Tauri. The primary goal is to conduct a critical quantitative test of the global oscillation scenario. Methods. Detailed three-dimensional, NLTE radiative transfer calculations were carried out using the radiative transfer code HDUST. The most up-to-date research on Be stars was used as input for the code in order to include a physically realistic description for the central star and the circumstellar disk. The model adopts a rotationally deformed, gravity darkened central star, surrounded by a disk whose unperturbed state is given by a steady-state viscous decretion disk model. It is further assumed that this disk is in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results. By adopting a viscous decretion disk model for zeta Tauri and a rigorous solution of the radiative transfer, a very good fit of the time-average properties of the disk was obtained. This provides strong theoretical evidence that the viscous decretion disk model is the mechanism responsible for disk formation. The global oscillation model successfully fitted spatially resolved VLTI/AMBER observations and the temporal V/R variations in the H alpha and Br gamma lines. This result convincingly demonstrates that the oscillation pattern in the disk is a one-armed spiral. Possible model shortcomings, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are also discussed.

Cyclic variability of the circumstellar disk of the Be star zeta Tauri I. Long-term monitoring observations

Context. Emission lines formed in decretion disks of Be stars often undergo long-term cyclic variations, especially in the violet-to-red (V/R) ratio of their primary components. The underlying structural and dynamical variations of the disks are only partly understood. From observations of the bright Be-shell star. Tau, the possibly broadest and longest data set illustrating the prototype of this behaviour was compiled from our own and archival observations. It comprises optical and infrared spectra, broad-band polarimetry, and interferometric observations. Aims. The dense, long-time monitoring permits a better separation of repetitive and ephemeral variations. The broad wavelength coverage includes lines formed under different physical conditions, i.e. different locations in the disk, so that the dynamics can be probed throughout much of the disk. Polarimetry and interferometry constrain the spatial structure. All together, the objective is a better understand the dynamics and life cycle of decretion disks. Methods. Standard methods of data acquisition, reduction, and analysis were applied. Results. From 3 V/R cycles between 1997 and 2008, a mean cycle length in Ha of 1400-1430 days was derived. After each minimum in V/R, the shell absorption weakens and splits into two components, leading to 3 emission peaks. This phase may make the strongest contribution to the variability in cycle length. There is no obvious connection between the V/R cycle and the 133-day orbital period of the not otherwise detected companion. V/R curves of different lines are shifted in phase. Lines formed on average closer to the central star are ahead of the others. The shell absorption lines fall into 2 categories differing in line width, ionization/excitation potential, and variability of the equivalent width. They seem to form in separate regions of the disk, probably crossing the line of sight at different times. The interferometry has resolved the continuum and the line emission in Br gamma and HeI 2.06. The phasing of the Br gamma emission shows that the photocenter of the line-emitting region lies within the plane of the disk but is offset from the continuum source. The plane of the disk is constant throughout the observed V/R cycles. The observations lay the foundation for the fully self-consistent, one-armed, disk-oscillation model developed in Paper II.

Genetics and race variability of the lucerne - Colletotrichum trifolii pathosystem in Australia

The Australian-bred lucerne cultivars, Trifecta and Sequel, were found to possess useful levels of resistance to both Colletotrichum trifolii races 1 and 2. Race 2 has only been previously observed in the United States and surveys did not reveal its presence in Australia. Multilocus fingerprinting using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPDs) analysis revealed low diversity (<10% dissimilarity) within Australian C. trifolii collections, and between the Australian race 1 isolates and a US race 2 isolate. Studies on the inheritance of resistance to C. trifolii race 1 in individual clones from Trifecta and Sequel revealed the presence of 2 different genetic mechanisms. One inheritance was for resistance as a recessive trait, and the other indicated that resistance was dominant. The recessive system has never been previously reported, whereas in the US, 2 completely dominant and independent tetrasomic genes Anl and Ant have been reported to condition C. trifolii resistance. It was not possible to fit the observed segregations from our studies to a single-gene model. In contrast to US studies, clones of cv. Sequel exhibiting the recessive resistance reacted differently to spray and stem injection with C. trifolii inoculum, being resistant to the former and susceptible to the latter, providing additional evidence for the presence of a different genetic mechanism conditioning resistance to those previously reported in the US. As C. trifolii is one of the most serious diseases of lucerne worldwide, the future development of molecular markers closely linked to the dominant and recessive resistances identified in these studies, and the relationships between these resistances and Anl and Ans as determined by genetic mapping, appear to be useful areas of future study.

Genetic variability of the symbiotic dinoflagellates from the wide ranging coral species Seriatopora hystrix and Acropora longicyathus in the Indo-West Pacific

The scleractinian coral species, Seriatopora hystrix and Acropora longicyathus, are widely distributed throughout the latitudinal range of the tropical west Pacific. These 2 coral species live in a mutually beneficial relation with symbiotic dinoflagellates (zooxanthellae), which are passed to their progeny by vertical transmission (zooxanthellate eggs or larvae) and horizontal transmission (eggs or larvae that acquire symbionts from the environment), respectively. For S. hystrix, vertical transmission might create biogeographically isolated and genetically differentiated symbiont populations because the extent of its larval migration is known to be limited. On the other hand, horizontal transmission in corals such as A. longicyathus may result in genetically connected symbiont populations, especially if its zooxanthellae taxa are widely distributed. To examine these hypotheses, symbionts were collected from colonies of S. hystrix and A. longicyathus living in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia), South China Sea (Malaysia) and East China Sea (Ryukyus Archipelago, Japan), and were examined using restriction fragment length polymorphism and sequence analysis of large and small subunit rRNA genes. Phylogenetic analysis assigned the symbionts to 1 of 3 taxonomically distinct groups, known as clades. Symbionts from Australian and Japanese S. hystrix were placed in Clade C, and Malaysian S. hystrix symbionts in the newly described Clade D. Seven of 11 Australian and all Japanese and Malaysian colonies of A. longicyathus had symbiotic dinoflagellates that also grouped with Clade C, but symbionts from the remaining Australian colonies of A. longicyathus grouped with Clade A. Analysis of molecular variance of Clade C symbionts found significant genetic variation in 1 or more geographic groups (69.8%) and to a lesser extent among populations within geographic regions (13.6%). All populations of Clade C symbionts from S. hystrix were genetically differentiated according to geographic region. Although Clade C symbionts of A. longicyathus from Japan resolved into a distinct geographic group, those from Australia and Malaysia did not and were genetically connected. We propose that these patterns of genetic connectivity correlate with differences in the dispersal range of the coral or symbiont propagules and are associated with their respective modes of symbiont transmission.

Effect of oscillatory breathing on the variability of the RR Intervals and its prognostic importance in individuals with left ventricular global systolic dysfunction

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of the oscillatory breathing on the variability of RR intervals (VRR) and on prognostic significance after one year follow-up in subjects with left ventricular global systolic dysfunction. METHODS: We studied 76 subjects, whose age ranged from 40 to 80 years, paired for age and gender, divided into two groups: group I - 34 healthy subjects; group II - 42 subjects with left ventricular global systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction < 0.40). The ECG signals were acquired during 600s in supine position, and analyzed the variation of the thoracic amplitude and the VRR. Clinical and V-RR variables were applied into a logistic multivariate model to foretell survival after one year follow-up. RESULTS: Oscillatory breathing was detected in 35.7% of subjects in vigil state of group II, with a concentration of the spectral power in the very low frequency band, and was independent of the presence of diabetes, functional class, ejection fraction, cause of ventricular dysfunction and survival after one year follow-up. In the logistic regression model, ejection fraction was the only independent variable to predict survival. CONCLUSION: 1) Oscillatory breathing pattern is frequent during wakefulness in the left ventricular global systolic dysfunction and concentrates spectral power in the very low band of V-RR; 2) it does not relate to severity and cause of left ventricular dysfunction; 3) ejection fraction is the only independent predictive variable for survival in this group of subjects.

Replacement of (R)-methadone by a double dose of (R,S)-methadone in addicts: interindividual variability of the (R)/(S) ratios and evidence of adaptive changes in methadone pharmacokinetics.

METHODS: Twenty-two patients receiving (R)-methadone maintenance treatment were switched to a double dose of (R,S)-methadone: blood samples were collected before and after the change, and the concentrations of the enantiomers were measured. In the second period, during racemic methadone treatment, important interindividual variability in the stereoselective disposition of the enantiomers of methadone was measured, with (R)/(S) ratios ranging from 0.63 to 2.40. This point should be taken into account particularly with respect to therapeutic drug monitoring of racemic methadone. RESULTS: A significant decrease P < 0.005 in the mean serum concentration/dose ratios of the active (R)-enantiomer before and after the change was measured (mean 3.97 and 3.33). CONCLUSION: Although of small amplitude (16%), this decrease confirms previously described adaptive changes in methadone pharmacokinetics during racemic methadone maintenance treatment and may necessitate, in some patients, a dose adjustment.

Genetic variability of the mTOR pathway and prostate cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation on Cancer (EPIC)

The mTOR (mammalian target of rapamycin) signal transduction pathway integrates various signals, regulating ribosome biogenesis and protein synthesis as a function of available energy and amino acids, and assuring an appropriate coupling of cellular proliferation with increases in cell size. In addition, recent evidence has pointed to an interplay between the mTOR and p53 pathways. We investigated the genetic variability of 67 key genes in the mTOR pathway and in genes of the p53 pathway which interact with mTOR. We tested the association of 1,084 tagging SNPs with prostate cancer risk in a study of 815 prostate cancer cases and 1,266 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We chose the SNPs (n = 11) with the strongest association with risk (p<0.01) and sought to replicate their association in an additional series of 838 prostate cancer cases and 943 controls from EPIC. In the joint analysis of first and second phase two SNPs of the PRKCI gene showed an association with risk of prostate cancer (ORallele = 0.85, 95% CI 0.78–0.94, p = 1.3×10−3 for rs546950 and ORallele = 0.84, 95% CI 0.76–0.93, p = 5.6×10−4 for rs4955720). We confirmed this in a meta-analysis using as replication set the data from the second phase of our study jointly with the first phase of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) project. In conclusion, we found an association with prostate cancer risk for two SNPs belonging to PRKCI, a gene which is frequently overexpressed in various neoplasms, including prostate cancer.

Interindividual variability of the clinical pharmacokinetics of methadone: implications for the treatment of opioid dependence

Methadone is widely used for the treatment of opioid dependence. Although in most countries the drug is administered as a racemic mixture of (R)- and (S)- methadone, (R)-methadone accounts for most, if not all, of the opioid effects. Methadone can be detected in the blood 15-45 minutes after oral administration, with peak plasma concentration at 2.5-4 hours. Methadone has a mean bioavailability of around 75% (range 36-100%). Methadone is highly bound to plasma proteins, in particular to alpha(1)-acid glycoprotein. Its mean free fraction is around 13%, with a 4-fold interindividual variation. Its volume of distribution is about 4 L/kg (range 2-13 L/kg). The elimination of methadone is mediated by biotransformation, followed by renal and faecal excretion. Total body clearance is about 0.095 L/min, with wide interindividual variation (range 0.02-2 L/min). Plasma concentrations of methadone decrease in a biexponential manner, with a mean value of around 22 hours (range 5-130 hours) for elimination half-life. For the active (R)-enantiomer, mean values of around 40 hours have been determined. Cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 and to a lesser extent 2D6 are probably the main isoforms involved in methadone metabolism. Rifampicin (rifampin), phenobarbital, phenytoin, carbamazepine, nevirapine, and efavirenz decrease methadone blood concentrations, probably by induction of CYP3A4 activity, which can result in severe withdrawal symptoms. Inhibitors of CYP3A4, such as fluconazole, and of CYP2D6, such as paroxetine, increase methadone blood concentrations. There is an up to 17-fold interindividual variation of methadone blood concentration for a given dosage, and interindividual variability of CYP enzymes accounts for a large part of this variation. Since methadone probably also displays large interindividual variability in its pharmacodynamics, methadone treatment must be individually adapted to each patient. Because of the high morbidity and mortality associated with opioid dependence, it is of major importance that methadone is used at an effective dosage in maintenance treatment: at least 60 mg/day, but typically 80-100 mg/day. Recent studies also show that a subset of patients might benefit from methadone dosages larger than 100 mg/day, many of them because of high clearance. In clinical management, medical evaluation of objective signs and subjective symptoms is sufficient for dosage titration in most patients. However, therapeutic drug monitoring can be useful in particular situations. In the case of non-response trough plasma concentrations of 400 microg/L for (R,S)-methadone or 250 microg/L for (R)-methadone might be used as target values.