Using indicators of deforestation and land-use dynamics to support conservation strategies: A case study of central Rondonia, Brazil

In Rondonia State, Brazil, settlement processes have cleared 68,000 km 2 of tropical forests since the 1970s. The intensity of deforestation has differed by region depending on driving factors like roads and economic activities. Different histories of land-use activities and rates of change have resulted in mosaics of forest patches embedded in an agricultural matrix. Yet, most assessments of deforestation and its effects on vegetation, soil and water typically focus on landscape patterns of current conditions, yet historical deforestation dynamics can influence current conditions strongly. Here, we develop and describe the use of four land-use dynamic indicators to capture historical land-use changes of catchments and to measure the rate of deforestation (annual deforestation rate), forest regeneration level (secondary forest mean proportion), time since disturbance (mean time since deforestation) and deforestation profile (deforestation profile curvature). We used the proposed indices to analyze a watershed located in central Rondonia. Landsat TM and ETM+ images were used to produce historical land-use maps of the last 18 years, each even year from 1984 to 2002 for 20 catchments. We found that the land-use dynamics indicators are able to distinguish catchments with different land-use change profiles. Four categories of historical land-use were identified: old and dominant pasture cover on small properties, recent deforestation and dominance of secondary growth, old extensive pastures and large forest remnants and, recent deforestation, pasture and large forest remnants. Knowing historical deforestation processes is important to develop appropriate conservation strategies and define priorities and actions for conserving forests currently under deforestation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and averagelatitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northerndistributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts

Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.

Supporting land use change modelling with automated monitoring of land use dynamics in the La Plata River Basin.

2008

Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of Setubal-Sesimbra, Portugal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

The biophysical perspective of a middle income economy: material flows in Mexico

We analyse natural resource use dynamics in the Mexican economy during the last three decades. Despite low and uneven economic growth, the extraction and use of materials in the Mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years. In this period, population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth. In addition, fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors, in manufacturing, and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials. Mexico’s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets. In the 1970s, Mexico mainly exported primary resources. This pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries. In contrast with other Latin American countries, Mexico has achieved a diversification of production, moving towards technology-intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio. However, crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good. Mexico’s material consumption is still well below the OECD average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of Mexico’s economy and community. Information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in Mexico.

Watching Corn Grow: A Hedonic Study of the Iowa Landscape, april 2007

Landscape amenities can be scarce in places with large areas of open space. Intensely farmed areas with high levels of monocropping and livestock production are akin to developed open space areas and do not provide many services in terms of landscape amenities. Open space in the form of farmland is plentiful, but parks and their services are in short supply. This issue is of particular importance for public policy because it is closely linked to the impact of externalities caused by agricultural activities and to the indirect effects of land use dynamics. This study looks at the impact of landscape amenities on rural residential property values in five counties in North Central Iowa using a hedonic pricing model based on geographic information systems. The effect of cropland, pasture, forest, and developed land as land uses surrounding the property is considered, as well as the impact of proximity to recreational areas. The study also includes the effect of other disamenities, such as livestock facilities and quarries, which can be considered part of the developed open space and are a common feature of the Iowa landscape.

The ecological impact of conquest and colonization on a medieval frontier landscape: combined palynological and geochemical analysis of lake sediments from Radzyń Chełminski, northern Poland

Slavic and German colonization of the southern Baltic between the 8th and 15th centuries A.D. is well-documented archaeologically and historically. Despite the large number of pollen profiles from Poland, few palaeoecological studies have examined the ecological impact of a process that was central to the expansion of European, Christian, societies. This study aims to redress this balance through multiproxy analysis of lake sediments from Radzyń Chełminski, Northern Poland, using pollen, element geochemistry (Inductively Coupled-Optical Emission Spectroscopy [ICP-OES]), organic content, and magnetic susceptibility. The close association between lake and medieval settlements presents the ideal opportunity to reconstruct past vegetation and land-use dynamics within a well-documented archaeological, historical, and cultural context. Three broad phases of increasing landscape impact are visible in the pollen and geochemical data dating from the 8th/9th, 10th/11th, and 13th centuries, reflecting successive phases of Slavic and German colonization. This involved the progressive clearance of oak-hornbeam dominated woodland and the development of an increasingly open agricultural landscape. Although the castles and towns of the Teutonic Order remain the most visible signs of medieval colonization, the palynological and geochemical data demonstrate that the major phase of woodland impact occurred during the preceding phase of Slavic expansion; Germans colonists were entering a landscape already significantly altered.

Conservation in tropical landscape mosaics: the case of the cacao landscape of southern Bahia, Brazil

A recent debate has contrasted two conservation strategies in agricultural landscapes; either ""land sparing`` farm development combining intensive production practices with forest set-asides, or ""wildlife-friendly`` farming with greater on-farm habitat value but lower yields. We argue that in established mosaic landscapes including old cacao production regions where natural forest has already been reduced to relatively small fragments, a combination of both strategies is needed to conserve biodiversity. After reviewing the evidence for the insufficiency of either strategy alone if applied to such landscapes, the paper focuses on the cacao production landscape of southern Bahia, Brazil, once the world`s second largest cacao producer. Here, small remaining areas of Atlantic Forest are embedded in a matrix dominated by traditional cacao agroforests, resulting in a landscape mosaic that has proven favorable to the conservation of the region`s high biodiversity. We show that current land use dynamics and public policies pose threats but also offer opportunities to conservation and describe a three- pronged landscape conservation strategy, consisting of (i) expansion of the protected areas system, (ii) promotion of productive yet biodiversity-friendly cacao farming practices, and (iii) assistance to land users to implement legally mandated on-farm reserves and voluntary private reserves. We discuss recent experiences concerning the implementation of this strategy, discuss likely future scenarios, and reflect on the applicability of the Bahian experience to biodiversity rich cacao production regions elsewhere in the tropics.

Avaliação da dinâmica do uso da terra na bacia do arroio Santa Bárbara - pelotas (Brasil), no período de 1953 a 2006

Land use dynamics is a consequence of socioeconomic system cycles. In this context, this work was developed aiming to evaluate land use alterations in Santa Bárbara watershed (Pelotas - Brazil), during 53 years (1953 - 2006), evidencing socioeconomic elements that contributed to this process. For land use dynamic analysis, maps of 1953, 1965, 1995 e 2006 were elaborated. Spatial changes that happened in Santa Bárbara watershed represent a regional process: pasture areas had decrease while culture lands had a gradual increase. This conjuncture is a consequence of the crisis in livestock destined to salted and dried meat production and of the food industry growth in Pelotas that impelled urban expansion, forest area reduction and artificial water reservoirs increase. © Scripta Nova, 2010.

A dinâmica do uso da terra e sua interferência na morfohidrografia da Bacia do Arroio Santa Bárbara - Pelotas (RS)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)