Indian Ocean response to anomalous conditions in 2006

[1] The equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) exhibited anomalous conditions characteristic of an Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) during 2006. The eastern EIO had cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), lower sea level, shallow thermocline and higher chlorophyll than normal. The anomalies in the east, restricted to the south of the equator, were highest off Sumatra. The western pole of the IOD was marked by warm SSTA and deeper thermocline with maxima on either side of the equator. An ocean general circulation model of the Indian Ocean forced by QuikSCAT winds reproduces the IOD of 2006 remarkably well. The switch over to cooling in the east and warming in the west happened during May and July respectively. In the east, airsea heat flux initiated cold SSTA in the model which were sustained later by oceanic processes. In the west, surface heat fluxes and horizontal advection caused warm SSTA and contribution by the latter decreased after August. Citation: Vinayachandran, P. N., J. Kurian, and C. P. Neema (2007), Indian Ocean response to anomalous conditions in 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15602, doi:10.1029/2007GL030194.

Indian Ocean response to anomalous conditions in 2006

The equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) exhibited anomalous conditions characteristic of an Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) during 2006. The eastern EIO had cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), lower sea level, shallow thermocline and higher chlorophyll than normal. The anomalies in the east, restricted to the south of the equator, were highest off Sumatra. The western pole of the IOD was marked by warm SSTA and deeper thermocline with maxima on either side of the equator. An ocean general circulation model of the Indian Ocean forced by QuikSCAT winds reproduces the IOD of 2006 remarkably well. The switch over to cooling in the east and warming in the west happened during May and July respectively. In the east, air-sea heat flux initiated cold SSTA in the model which were sustained later by oceanic processes. In the west, surface heat fluxes and horizontal advection caused warm SSTA and contribution by the latter decreased after August.

Studies on ocean surface layer responses to atmospheric forcing in the North Indian Ocean

The present study on upper ocean responses to atmospheric forcing (associated with cyclone passage) in North Indian Ocean revealed significant variability between AS and BoB. The analysis of cyclone frequency during 1947 to 2006 exhibited lesser frequency of cyclones in AS than that of BoB. The analysis also revealed significant reduction in cyclone frequency after the year 1976 with substantial reduction during monsoon season. The long term SST data at selected points in AS and BoB could not reveal any relation with reduction in cyclone frequency. However the SLP at same locations exhibited considerable increase during mid 1970’s, which could have contributed to the observed reduction in cyclone frequency after the year 1976.The response in waves during cyclone passage exhibited significant asymmetry on either side of the track in AS and BoB and the response is observed at 100’s of kilometers away from the track. The significant clockwise rotation in wave direction is observed on the right side of the track starting from near the track to far away locations, which existed for a longer duration. However, the anticlockwise rotation in wave direction is observed over a shorter distance on the left side of the track and dissipated immediately.Inertial oscillation is observed in surface current and in the mixed layer temperature associated with cyclone passage, which revealed the role of relative location(s) on either side of the track. The inertial peak closer to the local inertial period indicates maximum transfer of energy during the cyclone passage in both AS and BoB. The absence of strong inertial oscillation even with clockwise rotation in surface current and wind indicates the dominant role of duration of strong wind in generating inertial oscillation.The oceanic response associated with cyclone passage reveal the variable response(s) which depends on cyclone intensity, the proximity to track and cyclone translation speed. It is observed that resonance with wind generates higher response in surface current, wave and SST on the right side of the track and it lasts for a longer duration. The maximum oceanic response is observed at a few kilometers away on right side of the track. However lesser rightward bias in the location of maximum cooling is observed for cyclones with low cyclone translation speed. The response on the left side of the track is less and is limited over a shorter distance and dissipates immediately. It is observed that the ocean response, in general, increases with intensity of cyclones. However the differential cooling produced by the same intensity cyclones in AS and in BoB indicates the dominant role of low cyclone translation speed in oceanic response.The surface cooling exhibited strikingly differential responses between AS and BoB. The TMI-SST and buoy observations exhibited significant cooling for a longer duration in AS compared to that of BoB. The spatial extent of cooling is also much higher in AS than that of BoB. The wide spread cooling associated with cyclone passage in AS indicates the dominant role of thermal structure in oceanic response in AS than that of BoB.

Simulation and public communication of ocean response to changing sea ice concentration

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Numerical calculation of the response of the south China sea to typhoon imbudo

The response of the South China Sea (SCS) to Typhoon Imbudo was examined using POM model. The results indicated that SST decreased by 2-6 degrees C with a rightward-biased response as Typhoon Imbudo passed across the SCS. Due to a strong mixing process, the mixed layer (ML) depth deepened as much as 10-60 m and ML heat budget lost 824.78 W/m(2), which was OF dominated by the vertical mixing. By the response of upper ML heat transport, the temperature below the ML increased and oscillated near the inertial period. Furthermore, strong inertial currents were generated by the storm with the max currents up to 1.4 m/s in the upper ML.

Ocean Boundary Layer Dynamics and Air-Sea Interaction

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2005-12

Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30-70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather, but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO, and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understand of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere--upper-ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO, but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper-ocean mixing in coupled-model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean-state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Southwest Pacific Ocean

Paleoceanographic archives derived from 17 marine sediment cores reconstruct the response of the Southwest Pacific Ocean to the peak interglacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (ca. 125?ka). Paleo-Sea Surface Temperature (SST) estimates were obtained from the Random Forest model-an ensemble decision tree tool-applied to core-top planktonic foraminiferal faunas calibrated to modern SSTs. The reconstructed geographic pattern of the SST anomaly (maximum SST between 120 and 132?ka minus mean modern SST) seems to indicate how MIS 5e conditions were generally warmer in the Southwest Pacific, especially in the western Tasman Sea where a strengthened East Australian Current (EAC) likely extended subtropical influence to ca. 45°S off Tasmania. In contrast, the eastern Tasman Sea may have had a modest cooling except around 45°S. The observed pattern resembles that developing under the present warming trend in the region. An increase in wind stress curl over the modern South Pacific is hypothesized to have spun-up the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre, with concurrent increase in subtropical flow in the western boundary currents that include the EAC. However, warmer temperatures along the Subtropical Front and Campbell Plateau to the south suggest that the relative influence of the boundary inflows to eastern New Zealand may have differed in MIS 5e, and these currents may have followed different paths compared to today.

On the connection between the 1984 Atlantic warm event and the 1982-1983 ENSO

The warm event which spread in the tropical Atlantic during Spring-Summer 1984 is assumed to be partially initiated by atmospheric disturbances, themselves related to the major 1982–1983 El-Niño which occurred 1 year earlier in the Pacific. This paper tests such an hypothesis. For that purpose, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is forced by different conditions of climatic and observed sea surface temperature and an Atlantic ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is subsequently forced by the outputs of the AGCM. It is firstly shown that both the AGCM and the OGCM correctly behave when globally observed SST are used: the strengthening of the trades over the tropical Atlantic during 1983 and their subsequent weakening at the beginning of 1984 are well captured by the AGCM, and so is the Spring 1984 deepening of the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, simulated by the OGCM. As assumed, the SST anomalies located in the El-Niño Pacific area are partly responsible for wind signal anomaly in the tropical Atlantic. Though this remotely forced atmospheric signal has a small amplitude, it can generate, in the OGCM run, an anomalous sub-surface signal leading to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Atlantic. This forced oceanic experiment cannot explain the amplitude and phase of the observed sub-surface oceanic anomaly: part of the Atlantic ocean response, due to local interaction between ocean and atmosphere, requires a coupled approach. Nevertheless this experiment showed that anomalous conditions in the Pacific during 82–83 created favorable conditions for anomaly development in the Atlantic.

Ensemble forecasting in the Mediterranean sea

A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.