Modélisation incrémentale par méthode bayésienne

Les modèles incrémentaux sont des modèles statistiques qui ont été développés initialement dans le domaine du marketing. Ils sont composés de deux groupes, un groupe contrôle et un groupe traitement, tous deux comparés par rapport à une variable réponse binaire (le choix de réponses est « oui » ou « non »). Ces modèles ont pour but de détecter l’effet du traitement sur les individus à l’étude. Ces individus n’étant pas tous des clients, nous les appellerons : « prospects ». Cet effet peut être négatif, nul ou positif selon les caractéristiques des individus composants les différents groupes. Ce mémoire a pour objectif de comparer des modèles incrémentaux d’un point de vue bayésien et d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Les modèles incrémentaux utilisés en pratique sont ceux de Lo (2002) et de Lai (2004). Ils sont initialement réalisés d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Ainsi, dans ce mémoire, l’approche bayésienne est utilisée et comparée à l’approche fréquentiste. Les simulations sont e ectuées sur des données générées avec des régressions logistiques. Puis, les paramètres de ces régressions sont estimés avec des simulations Monte-Carlo dans l’approche bayésienne et comparés à ceux obtenus dans l’approche fréquentiste. L’estimation des paramètres a une influence directe sur la capacité du modèle à bien prédire l’effet du traitement sur les individus. Nous considérons l’utilisation de trois lois a priori pour l’estimation des paramètres de façon bayésienne. Elles sont choisies de manière à ce que les lois a priori soient non informatives. Les trois lois utilisées sont les suivantes : la loi bêta transformée, la loi Cauchy et la loi normale. Au cours de l’étude, nous remarquerons que les méthodes bayésiennes ont un réel impact positif sur le ciblage des individus composant les échantillons de petite taille.

Modélisation incrémentale par méthode bayésienne

Les modèles incrémentaux sont des modèles statistiques qui ont été développés initialement dans le domaine du marketing. Ils sont composés de deux groupes, un groupe contrôle et un groupe traitement, tous deux comparés par rapport à une variable réponse binaire (le choix de réponses est « oui » ou « non »). Ces modèles ont pour but de détecter l’effet du traitement sur les individus à l’étude. Ces individus n’étant pas tous des clients, nous les appellerons : « prospects ». Cet effet peut être négatif, nul ou positif selon les caractéristiques des individus composants les différents groupes. Ce mémoire a pour objectif de comparer des modèles incrémentaux d’un point de vue bayésien et d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Les modèles incrémentaux utilisés en pratique sont ceux de Lo (2002) et de Lai (2004). Ils sont initialement réalisés d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Ainsi, dans ce mémoire, l’approche bayésienne est utilisée et comparée à l’approche fréquentiste. Les simulations sont e ectuées sur des données générées avec des régressions logistiques. Puis, les paramètres de ces régressions sont estimés avec des simulations Monte-Carlo dans l’approche bayésienne et comparés à ceux obtenus dans l’approche fréquentiste. L’estimation des paramètres a une influence directe sur la capacité du modèle à bien prédire l’effet du traitement sur les individus. Nous considérons l’utilisation de trois lois a priori pour l’estimation des paramètres de façon bayésienne. Elles sont choisies de manière à ce que les lois a priori soient non informatives. Les trois lois utilisées sont les suivantes : la loi bêta transformée, la loi Cauchy et la loi normale. Au cours de l’étude, nous remarquerons que les méthodes bayésiennes ont un réel impact positif sur le ciblage des individus composant les échantillons de petite taille.

Wind uplift strength of trapezoidal steel cladding with closely spaced ribs

When crest-fixed thin trapezoidal steel cladding with closely spaced ribs is subjected to wind uplift/suction forces, local dimpling or pull-through failures occur prematurely at their screw connections because of the large stress concentrations in the cladding under the screw heads. Currently, the design of crest-fixed profiled steel cladding is mainly based on time consuming and expensive laboratory tests due to the lack of adequate design rules. In this research, a shell finite element model of crest-fixed trapezoidal steel cladding with closely spaced ribs was developed and validated using experimental results. The finite element model included a recently developed splitting criterion and other advanced features including geometric imperfections, buckling effects, contact modelling and hyperelastic behaviour of neoprene washers, and was used in a detailed parametric study to develop suitable design formulae for local failures. This paper presents the details of the finite element analyses, large scale experiments and their results including the new wind uplift design strength formulae for trapezoidal steel cladding with closely spaced ribs. The new design formulae can be used to achieve both safe and optimised solutions.

The development of a new dust uplift scheme in the Met Office Unified Model

Aeolian mineral dust aerosol is an important consideration in the Earth's radiation budget as well as a source of nutrients to oceanic and land biota. The modelling of aeolian mineral dust has been improving consistently despite the relatively sparse observations to constrain them. This study documents the development of a new dust emissions scheme in the Met Office Unified ModelTM (MetUM) based on the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) module. Four separate case studies are used to test and constrain the model output. Initial testing was undertaken on a large dust event over North Africa in March 2006 with the model constrained using AERONET data. The second case study involved testing the capability of the model to represent dust events in the Middle East without being re-tuned from the March 2006 case in the Sahara. While the model is unable to capture some of the daytime variation in AERONET AOD there is good agreement between the model and observed dust events. In the final two case studies new observations from in situ aircraft data during the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) campaigns in February and August 2006 were used. These recent observations provided further data on dust size distributions and vertical profiles to constrain the model. The modelled DODO cases were also compared to AERONET data to make sure the radiative properties of the dust were comparable to observations. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

A comparison of two dust uplift schemes within the same general circulation model

Aeolian dust modelling has improved significantly over the last ten years and many institutions now consistently model dust uplift, transport and deposition in general circulation models (GCMs). However, the representation of dust in GCMs is highly variable between modelling communities due to differences in the uplift schemes employed and the representation of the global circulation that subsequently leads to dust deflation. In this study two different uplift schemes are incorporated in the same GCM. This approach enables a clearer comparison of the dust uplift schemes themselves, without the added complexity of several different transport and deposition models. The global annual mean dust aerosol optical depths (at 550 nm) using two different dust uplift schemes were found to be 0.014 and 0.023—both lying within the estimates from the AeroCom project. However, the models also have appreciably different representations of the dust size distribution adjacent to the West African coast and very different deposition at various sites throughout the globe. The different dust uplift schemes were also capable of influencing the modelled circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation despite the use of prescribed sea surface temperatures. This has important implications for the use of dust models in AMIP-style (Atmospheric Modelling Intercomparison Project) simulations and Earth-system modelling.

Regional subsidence modelling in Murcia city (SE Spain) using 1-D vertical finite element analysis and 2-D interpolation of ground surface displacements

Subsidence is a hazard that may have natural or anthropogenic origin causing important economic losses. The area of Murcia city (SE Spain) has been affected by subsidence due to groundwater overexploitation since the year 1992. The main observed historical piezometric level declines occurred in the periods 1982–1984, 1992–1995 and 2004–2008 and showed a close correlation with the temporal evolution of ground displacements. Since 2008, the pressure recovery in the aquifer has led to an uplift of the ground surface that has been detected by the extensometers. In the present work an elastic hydro-mechanical finite element code has been used to compute the subsidence time series for 24 geotechnical boreholes, prescribing the measured groundwater table evolution. The achieved results have been compared with the displacements estimated through an advanced DInSAR technique and measured by the extensometers. These spatio-temporal comparisons have showed that, in spite of the limited geomechanical data available, the model has turned out to satisfactorily reproduce the subsidence phenomenon affecting Murcia City. The model will allow the prediction of future induced deformations and the consequences of any piezometric level variation in the study area.

Quantifying uplift and denudation of a thermally heterogeneous crust: a detailed multi-thermochronometeric study of central west Britain

Topography is often thought as exclusively linked to mountain ranges formed by plates collision. It is now, however, known that apart from compression, uplift and denudation of rocks may be triggered by rifting, like it happens at elevated passive margins, and away from plate boundaries by both intra-plate stress causing reactivation of older structures, and by epeirogenic movements driven by mantle dynamics and initiating long-wavelength uplift. In the Cenozoic, central west Britain and other parts of the North Atlantic margins experienced multiple episodes of rock uplift and denudation that have been variable both at spatial and temporal scales. The origin of topography in central west Britain is enigmatic, and because of its location, it may be related to any of the processes mentioned above. In this study, three low temperature thermochronometers, the apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe and ZHe, respectively) methods were used to establish the rock cooling history from 200◦C to 30◦C. The samples were collected from the intrusive rocks in the high elevation, high relief regions of the Lake District (NW England), southern Scotland and northern Wales. AFT ages from the region are youngest (55–70 Ma) in the Lake District and increase northwards into southern Scotland and southwards in north Wales (>200 Ma). AHe and ZHe ages show no systematic pattern; the former range from 50 to 80 Ma and the latter tend to record the post-emplacement cooling of the intrusions (200–400 Ma). The complex, multi-thermochronometric inverse modelling suggests a ubiquitous, rapid Late Cretaceous/early Palaeogene cooling event that is particularly marked in Lake District and Criffell. The timing and rate of cooling in southern Scotland and in northern Wales is poorly resolved as the amount of cooling was less than 60◦C. The Lake District plutons were at >110◦C prior to the early Palaeogene; cooling due to a combined effect of high heat flow, from the heat producing granite batholith, and the blanketing effect of the overlying low conductivity Late Mesozoic limestones and mudstones. Modelling of the heat transfer suggests that this combination produced an elevated geothermal gradient within the sedimentary rocks (50–70◦C/km) that was about two times higher than at the present day. Inverse modelling of the AFT and AHe data taking the crustal structure into consideration suggests that denudation was the highest, 2.0–2.5 km, in the coastal areas of the Lake District and southern Scotland, gradually decreasing to less than 1 km in the northern Southern Uplands and northern Wales. Both the rift-related uplift and the intra-plate compression poorly correlate with the timing, location and spatial distribution of the early Palaeogene denudation. The pattern of early Palaeogene denudation correlates with the thickness of magmatic underplating, if the changes of mean topography, Late Cretaceous water depth and eroded rock density are taken into consideration. However, the uplift due to underplating alone cannot fully justify the total early Palaeogene denudation. The amount that is not ex- plained by underplating is, however, roughly spatially constant across the study area and can be referred to the transient thermal uplift induced by the mantle plume arrival. No other mechanisms are required to explain the observed pattern of denudation. The onset of denudation across the region is not uniform. Denudation started at 70–75 Ma in the central part of the Lake District whereas the coastal areas the rapid erosion appears to have initiated later (65–60 Ma). This is ~10 Ma earlier than the first vol- canic manifestation of the proto-Iceland plume and favours the hypothesis of the short period of plume incubation below the lithosphere before the volcanism. In most of the localities, the rocks had cooled to temperatures lower than 30◦C by the end of the Palaeogene, suggesting that the total Neogene denudation was, at a maximum, several hundreds of metres. Rapid cooling in the last 3 million years is resolved in some places in southern Scotland, where it could be explained by glacial erosion and post-glacial isostatic uplift.