Chaos and Unpredictability in the Vibration of an Elasto-Plastic Beam

This contribution discusses the nonlinear dynamics of a pin-ended elasto-plastic beam with both kinematic and isotropic hardening. An iterative numerical procedure based on the operator split technique is developed in order to deal with the nonlinearities in the equations of motion. Free and forced responses for harmonic sinusoidal and square wave excitations are investigated. Numerical simulations present many interesting behaviors such as jump phenomena, sensitivity to initial conditions, chaos and transient chaos. These results indicate that there are practical problems in predicting the response of the beam even when periodic steady state response is expected.

Dinamicity and unpredictability of emerging markets: an implementation of Goetzamnn and Jorion (1999)

This research is to be considered as an implementation of Goetzmann and Jorion (1999). In order to provide a more realistic scenario, we have implemented a Garch (1,1) approach for the residuals of returns and a multifactor model thus to better replicate the systematic risk of a market. The new simulations reveal some new aspects of emerging markets’ expected returns: the unpredictability of the emerging markets’ returns with the global factor does not depend on the year of emergence and that the unsystematic risk explains the returns of emerging markets for a much larger period of time. The results also reveal the high impact of Exchange rate, Commodities index and of the Global factor in emerging markets’ expected return.

Processing of temporal unpredictability in human and animal amygdala

The amygdala has been studied extensively for its critical role in associative fear conditioning in animals and humans. Noxious stimuli, such as those used for fear conditioning, are most effective in eliciting behavioral responses and amygdala activation when experienced in an unpredictable manner. Here, we show, using a translational approach in mice and humans, that unpredictability per se without interaction with motivational information is sufficient to induce sustained neural activity in the amygdala and to elicit anxiety-like behavior. Exposing mice to mere temporal unpredictability within a time series of neutral sound pulses in an otherwise neutral sensory environment increased expression of the immediate-early gene c-fos and prevented rapid habituation of single neuron activity in the basolateral amygdala. At the behavioral level, unpredictable, but not predictable, auditory stimulation induced avoidance and anxiety-like behavior. In humans, functional magnetic resonance imaging revealed that temporal unpredictably causes sustained neural activity in amygdala and anxiety-like behavior as quantified by enhanced attention toward emotional faces. Our findings show that unpredictability per se is an important feature of the sensory environment influencing habituation of neuronal activity in amygdala and emotional behavior and indicate that regulation of amygdala habituation represents an evolutionary-conserved mechanism for adapting behavior in anticipation of temporally unpredictable events.

Negative Bubbles and Unpredictability of Financial Markets: The Asian Currency Crisis in 1997

We obtain the three following conclusions. First, business cycles depend on prices of stocks and primary commodities such as crude oil. Second, stock prices and oil prices generate psychological cycles with different periods. Third, there exist cases of "negative bubble" under certain conditions. Integrating the above results, we can find a role of a government in financial market in developing countries.

The unpredictability paradox: review of empirical comparisons of randomised and non-randomised clinical trials

Objective To summarise comparisons of randomised clinical trials and non-randomised clinical trials, trials with adequately concealed random allocation versus inadequately concealed random allocation, and high quality trials versus low quality trials where the effect of randomisation could not be separated from the effects of other methodological manoeuvres.

O jogo de futebol : investigação de sua estrutura, de seus modelos e da inteligencia de jogo, do ponto de vista da complexidade

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Procedimentos pedagogicos para o ensino das lutas : contextos e possibilidades

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Pedagogia do treinamento : metodo, procedimentos pedagogicos e as multiplas competencias do tecnico nos jogos desportivos coletivos

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Conformational selection of inhibitors and substrates by proteolytic enzymes: Implications for drug design and polypeptide processing

Inhibitors of proteolytic enzymes (proteases) are emerging as prospective treatments for diseases such as AIDS and viral infections, cancers, inflammatory disorders, and Alzheimer's disease. Generic approaches to the design of protease inhibitors are limited by the unpredictability of interactions between, and structural changes to, inhibitor and protease during binding. A computer analysis of superimposed crystal structures for 266 small molecule inhibitors bound to 48 proteases (16 aspartic, 17 serine, 8 cysteine, and 7 metallo) provides the first conclusive proof that inhibitors, including substrate analogues, commonly bind in an extended beta-strand conformation at the active sites of all these proteases. Representative superimposed structures are shown for (a) multiple inhibitors bound to a protease of each class, (b) single inhibitors each bound to multiple proteases, and (c) conformationally constrained inhibitors bound to proteases. Thus inhibitor/substrate conformation, rather than sequence/composition alone, influences protease recognition, and this has profound implications for inhibitor design. This conclusion is supported by NMR, CD, and binding studies for HIV-1 protease inhibitors/ substrates which, when preorganized in an extended conformation, have significantly higher protease affinity. Recognition is dependent upon conformational equilibria since helical and turn peptide conformations are not processed by proteases. Conformational selection explains the resistance of folded/structured regions of proteins to proteolytic degradation, the susceptibility of denatured proteins to processing, and the higher affinity of conformationally constrained 'extended' inhibitors/substrates for proteases. Other approaches to extended inhibitor conformations should similarly lead to high-affinity binding to a protease.

The effect of coal particle size on colorimetric analysis of roadway dust

Colorimetric analysis of roadway dust is currently a method for monitoring the incombustible content of mine roadways within Australian underground coal mines. To test the accuracy of this method, and to eliminate errors of judgement introduced by human operators in the analysis procedure, a number of samples were tested using scanning software to determine absolute greyscale values. High variability and unpredictability of results was noted during this testing, indicating that colorimetric testing is sensitive to parameters within the mine that are not currently reproduced in the preparation of reference samples. This was linked to the dependence of colour on particle surface area, and hence also to the size distribution of coal particles within the mine environment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive tool for automatic data collection of real electricity markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in last years, as result of the new challenges that the electricity markets restructuring produced. This restructuring increased the competitiveness of the market, but with it its complexity. The growing complexity and unpredictability of the market’s evolution consequently increases the decision making difficulty. Therefore, the intervenient entities are forced to rethink their behaviour and market strategies. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available. These data, concerning innumerous regards of electricity markets operation, is accessible free of charge, and it is essential for understanding and suitably modelling electricity markets. This paper proposes a tool which is able to handle, store and dynamically update data. The development of the proposed tool is expected to be of great importance to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities.

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Ethernet goes real-time: a survey on research and technological developments

Ethernet is the most popular LAN technology. Its low price and robustness, resulting from its wide acceptance and deployment, has created an eagerness to expand its responsibilities to the factory-floor, where real-time requirements are to be fulfilled. However, it is difficult to build a real-time control network using Ethernet, because its MAC protocol, the 1-persistent CSMA/CD protocol with the BEB collision resolution algorithm, has unpredictable delay characteristics. Many anticipate that the recent technological advances in Ethernet such as the emerging Fast/Gigabit Ethernet, micro-segmentation and full-duplex operation using switches will also enable it to support time-critical applications. This technical report provides a comprehensive look at the unpredictability inherent to Ethernet and at recent technological advances towards real-time operation.

Real-time communications over hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS-based networks

PROFIBUS is an international standard (IEC 61158) for factory-floor communications, with some hundreds of thousands of world-wide installations. However, it does not include any wireless capabilities. In this paper we propose a hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS solution where most of the design options are made in order to guarantee the proper real-time behaviour of the overall network. We address the timing unpredictability problems placed by the co-existence of heterogeneous transmission media in the same network. Moreover, we propose a novel solution to provide inter-cell mobility to PROFIBUS wireless nodes.