“Unintended effects”: A theorem for complex systems

Unintended effects are well known to economists and sociologists and their consequences may be devastating. The main objective of this article is to formulate a mathematical theorem, based on Gödel's famous incompleteness theorem, in which it is shown, that from the moment deontical modalities (prohibition, obligation, permission, and faculty) are introduced into the social system, responses are allowed by the system that are not produced, however, prohibited responses or unintended effects may occur.

The effects of unemployment benefits on migration in lagging regions

[spa] En este trabajo se analizan los efectos sobre la movilidad geográfica de una política pública (SIPTEA) que aumenta la protección por desempleo en Extremadura y Andalucía. Utilizando la discontinuidad geográfica en la política estudiada y datos de los Censos de Población de 1981 y 1991 a nivel municipal, se estima el efecto de SIPTEA en el crecimiento de la población y en las probabilidades de emigrar e inmigrar en áreas rurales que experimentan elevadas tasas de paro y de emigración. Los resultados del trabajo indican que la política mitigó estas pérdidas de población aunque los efectos son cuantitativamente moderados. También se exploran los efectos de dicha política en el ámbito laboral, encontrándose un incremento de la tasa del desempleo asociado a la implementación de la política de entre 10 y 13 puntos porcentuales.

The effects of unemployment benefits on migration in lagging regions

[spa] En este trabajo se analizan los efectos sobre la movilidad geográfica de una política pública (SIPTEA) que aumenta la protección por desempleo en Extremadura y Andalucía. Utilizando la discontinuidad geográfica en la política estudiada y datos de los Censos de Población de 1981 y 1991 a nivel municipal, se estima el efecto de SIPTEA en el crecimiento de la población y en las probabilidades de emigrar e inmigrar en áreas rurales que experimentan elevadas tasas de paro y de emigración. Los resultados del trabajo indican que la política mitigó estas pérdidas de población aunque los efectos son cuantitativamente moderados. También se exploran los efectos de dicha política en el ámbito laboral, encontrándose un incremento de la tasa del desempleo asociado a la implementación de la política de entre 10 y 13 puntos porcentuales.

Feminist Tigers and Patriarchal Lions: Rhetorical Strategies and Instrument Effects in the Struggle for Definition and Control over Development in Nepal

This article offers an analysis of a struggle for control of a women’s development project in Nepal. The story of this struggle is worth telling, for it is rife with the gender politics and neo-colonial context that underscore much of what goes on in contemporary Nepal. In particular, my analysis helps to unravel some of the powerful discourses, threads of interest, and yet unintended effects inevitable under a regime of development aid. The analysis demonstrates that the employment of already available discursive figures of the imperialist feminist and the patriarchal third world man are central to the rhetorical strategies taken in the conflict. I argue that the trans-discursive or “borderland” nature of development in general and women’s development in particular result in different constructions of “development” goals, means and actors based not only on divergent cultural categories but on historically specific cultural politics. I argue further that the apolitical discourse of development serves to cloak its inherently political project of social and economic transformation, making conflicts such as the one that occurred in this case not only likely to occur but also likely to be misunderstood.

WHEN INTERACTING ONLINE LEADS TO TAKING ACTION OFFLINE: EXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF ONLINE PERSUASION ON IS USERS’ PRO-ENVIRONMENTAL BEHAVIOURS

With the increasing attention towards the role of information systems (IS) as a vehicle to address environmental issues, IS researchers and practitioners have strived to leverage advanced Green IS innovations to persuade people to engage in environmentally responsible practices and support pro-environmental initiatives. Yet, existing research reveals that the persuasion effects of Green IS designs remain equivocal. In particular, many design characteristics advocated in Green IS research can produce bi-directional changes in IS users’ attitudes and behaviours. To address this issue, this thesis drew upon the circumplex model of social values (S.H. Schwartz, 1992) to explain when and how online persuasion designs come to affect people’s judgements on resource conservation and environmental protection. Three sets of working propositions and specific hypotheses were developed. Specifically, this research suggests that the use of an IS application can elicit different value primes and draw IS users’ attentions to different motivational functions of engaging in suggested behavioural changes. It is expected that matching online persuasion appeals with IS users’ personal value priorities can increase users’ acceptance of online behavioural suggestions. Second, it is hypothesized that the persuasion effect tends to be weakened, as the system users become aware of the valuematching design in a given IS application. Third, it is proposed that different value primes presented in an IS application can result in different unintended effects on IS users’ global pro-environmental attitudes and motivations. The hypotheses were tested in the two pilot studies and two full-scale online experiments. The study findings generally support the main predictions of the hypotheses. On the one hand, this thesis providesiii empirical evidence that IS design for online persuasion can be instrumental in influencing IS users’ judgements on a range of resource conservation practices. On the other hand, this work explains why the effectiveness of IS-enabled online persuasion attempts needs to be measured not only in terms of the intended changes in a target behavioural domain but also in terms of unintended changes in people’s general environmental orientations. Findings in this research may bring a different perspective on understanding and assessing the influence of Green IS applications on IS users’ judgements and behaviou

Living Our Lives on the Edge: Power, Space and Sexual Orientation in Cape Town Townships, South Africa

Much of social science literature about South African cities fails to represent its complex spectrum of sexual practices and associated identities. The unintended effects of such representations are that a compulsory heterosexuality is naturalised in, and reiterative with, dominant constructions of blackness in townships. In this paper, we argue that the assertion of discreet lesbian and gay identities in black townships of a South African city such as Cape Town is influenced by the historical racial and socio-economic divides that have marked urban landscape. In their efforts to recoup a positive sense of gendered personhood, residents have constructed a moral economy anchored in reproductive heterosexuality. We draw upon ethnographic data to show how sexual minorities live their lives vicariously in spaces they have prised open within the extant sex/gender binary. They are able to assert the identities of moffie and man-vrou (mannish woman) without threatening the dominant ideology of heterosexuality.

Influence of dietary nutrients on life history-related traits of black flies and mosquitoes

The sugar-feeding ecology of dipteran vectors has recently been targeted because it presents opportunities to inoculate common food sources for these dipterans with entomopathogenic bacteria as a means of controlling the population of host-seeking adult dipteran vectors. Whereas this approach to vector control holds some promise, differences in the nutrient composition and concentration in sugary food sources can influence the food selection pattern of dipteran vectors and potentially confound the outcomes of field trials on the efficacy of entomopathogenic bacteria as vector control agents. Further, nutrient components of bacteria-inoculated artificial diets may present unintended effects of extending the survivorship or fecundity of the target population and potentially render the whole approach counterproductive. The present study investigated the diet-specific factors that influence the foraging decisions of female Simulium venustum/verecundum (Diptera: Simuliidae) and female Anopheles stephensi (Diptera: Culicidae) on artificial nectar and honeydew. Paired choice experiments showed that the black flies forage more frequently from high calorie diets, which contained melezitose, or those diets that contained amino acids, compared to low calorie melezitose-free diets or amino acid-free diets. The mosquitoes however displayed a more random diet selection pattern. The effects of sugary diets on certain life-history traits considered to be important to the ecological fitness of the black flies and mosquitoes were also investigated. Sugary diets had no significant effect on the survivorship and fecundity of the black flies, but they influenced the resistance of Leucocytozoon-infected flies to the parasite. Amino acid-containing diets appeared to extend the survival of mosquitoes, and also allowed them to take more vertebrate blood when they blood fed.

L’élargissement de l’Union européenne dans un contexte de sécurisation croissante des migrations:enjeux et conséquences pour les nouveaux membres de l’Est

"En mai 2004, l’Union européenne connaissait un élargissement sans précédent, passant soudainement de 15 à 24 pays membres. Cet élargissement s’est opéré dans un contexte mondial marqué par une sécurisation accrue des migrations ; une tendance à laquelle l’Union Européenne ne saurait échapper. Cet élargissement constitue, aujourd’hui encore, un défi fondamental pour l’UE qui d’un côté craint pour sa sécurité en multipliant les politiques restrictives à l’endroit des migrations et qui, de l’autre, se doit d’intégrer ces dix nouveaux membres, pour la plupart issus de l’ancien bloc soviétique et n’ayant par conséquent que très peu d’expériences et de moyens en matière de contrôle migratoire ; ce domaine ayant été pendant plus de 60 ans l’apanage du pouvoir central de Moscou. Le défi à relever est d’autant plus grand si l’on considère le fait que ces nouveaux membres se situent géographiquement aux frontières centrales et orientales de l’Europe et en constituent ainsi l’une des plus importantes portes d’entrées. En imposant à ces nouveaux membres la reprise intégrale de l’acquis communautaire, sans tenir compte des spécificités géographiques, historiques, économiques et politiques de ces pays, l’Union européenne risque de payer le prix d’une politique hypocrite et aveugle et de favoriser la multiplication d’effets pervers, pouvant aller jusqu’à compromettre, à terme, la stabilité de la région."

Variability associated to the insertion and expression of transgenes in plants

Amb la finalitat de garantir la seguretat dels consumidors i del medi ambient, a la UE els aliments modificats genèticament (MG) estan sotmesos a un rigorós procés d'autorització que inclou: caracterització molecular del transgèn i anàlisis comparatives a nivell nutricional i agronòmic. L'ús de tècniques de profiling per avaluar la possible existència d'efectes no esperats derivats de la inserció i/o expressió del transgèn s'ha proposat com a una eina complementària per l'avaluació de la seguretat alimentària. L'objectiu de la present tesis és avaluar la variabilitat associada a la inserció i expressió de transgens en plantes, utilitzant com a exemple el blat de moro MON810. Es pretén complementar les aproximacions ja existents basades en l'estudi de paràmetres concrets mitjançant les tècniques de profiling. Des del punt de vista transcriptòmic i proteòmic, les varietats de blat de moro MON810 semblen ser substancialment equivalents a les seves varietats comparables no-MG. En conseqüència, és possible la producció de plantes MG amb el mínim d'efectes no esperats.

Place attachment and sense of belonging in the offices

Examines the concept of “place attachment” as defined in various disciplines and develops an effective conceptual approach that can be applied to facilities management. Describes the development of a model-matchmaking process adapted from Passini's model of cognitive mapping. Findings that the emergence of the new economy is undermining our ability to form attachments with people, places and companies. However, one of the unintended effects of this is that it has strengthened the value of place and aroused a longing for community. Moreover, loyalty to an organisation is increasingly determined by social and place attachment. Proposes that further research needs to be undertaken to “engineer out” the negative impacts of flexibility associated with loss of place. States that place attachment presents a challenging view of the world that is contrary to all the received wisdom in facilities management, where flexibility has always assumed an unchallenged position in relation to buildings and people. Concludes that this research area presents many pragmatic design and operational questions for facilities managers.

March 4th, 1999 : the recognition-primed decision hypothesis

On March 4, 1999, the newly appointed President of the Brazilian Central Bank, Mr Armínio Fraga, raised interest rates to a staggering 45% per annum. The objective of that decision was to keep foreign investors assets in Brazil, and prevent the country from default. At the time, Brazil suffered frem an enormously intense crisis of confidence, and fears of such default were widespread. Mr Fraga was walking a very fine line when making that decision, for it could bring forth unintended effects: the market, already concerned about Brazil's sustainability, could perceive the increased rate as an irreversible step towards the abyss inevitable default. Economic theory postulates the rational actor model as the driving force behind economic decision-making. The objective of this thesis is to present and discuss the hypothesis that this particular decision, and by extension many others, are better explained threugh the recognition-primed decision mode!.

Vontade do tribunal ou constituição generosa? Trazendo o constituinte para o debate sobre o controle de constitucionalidade preventivo

Uma das respostas dadas à expansão dos poderes do STF responsabiliza a Assembleia Constituinte pelos poderes dados ao tribunal. O objetivo desse trabalho é comprovar que o STF avoca para si competências nunca entregues pela constituinte, mesmo em matérias em que a omissão de outros poderes não pode ser alegada. Para isso estudamos o controle preventivo de emendas fazendo uma análise comparativa entre o seu desenho na Assembleia e as mudanças ocorridas ao longo da jurisprudência da Corte.

Xenobiotic metabolomics: major impact on the metabolome

Xenobiotics are encountered by humans on a daily basis and include drugs, environmental pollutants, cosmetics, and even components of the diet. These chemicals undergo metabolism and detoxication to produce numerous metabolites, some of which have the potential to cause unintended effects such as toxicity. They can also block the action of enzymes or receptors used for endogenous metabolism or affect the efficacy and/or bioavailability of a coadministered drug. Therefore, it is essential to determine the full metabolic effects that these chemicals have on the body. Metabolomics, the comprehensive analysis of small molecules in a biofluid, can reveal biologically relevant perturbations that result from xenobiotic exposure. This review discusses the impact that genetic, environmental, and gut microflora variation has on the metabolome, and how these variables may interact, positively and negatively, with xenobiotic metabolism.

Participation in Further Education over the Life Course: a longitudinal study of three birth cohorts in the Federal Republic of Germany

In this paper we address the issue of who is most likely to participate in further training, for what reasons and at what stage of the life course. Special emphasis is given to the impact of labour-market policies to encourage further education and a person's individual or cohort possibilities to participate in further education. We apply a Cox proportional hazard model to data from the West German Life History Study, separately for women and men, within and outside the firm. Younger cohorts show not only higher proportions of participation in further education and training at early stages of the life course, they also continue to participate in higher numbers during later stages of the life course. General labour-force participation reduces and tenure with the same firm increases the propensity to participate in further education and training. Contrary to expectations, in Germany labour-market segmentation has been enhanced rather than reduced by further education and training policies, since in the firm-specific labour-market segment, i.e. skilled jobs in large firms, and in the public sector both women and men had a higher probability of participation. Particularly favourable conditions for participation in further education outside the firm prevailed during the first years of the labour promotion act (Arbeitsförderungsgesetz) between 1969 and 1974, but women did not benefit to the same extent as men. Training policies are, therefore, in need of continuous assessment based on a goal-achievement evaluation to avoid any unintended effects of such policies.

Maximising the impact of research: the NCCR North-South approach: Fourth NCCR North-South Report on Effectiveness

Interest is growing in the impact that science can have on reducing poverty in the global South. If we understand impact as the “demonstrable contribution that excellent research makes to society and the economy”, the concept encompasses a variety of contributions of research-related knowledge and skills that benefit people and the environment. One reason for the growing interest in impact in this context is research councils’ increasing focus on documenting the social and environmental benefits of science, as indicated by the above quotation from the British research councils. Another reason is that research funding agencies from the private and public sectors are now more interested in social innovations for solving problems on the ground. Research can indeed influence policymakers’ views, policy development, funding patterns, and implementation or practice. This is promising for those who would like to improve – and prove – the influence research can have on policy and practice. It is also of importance for better understanding the intended and unintended effects of research. This report presents the NCCR North-South approach to increasing the impact of development-oriented research. It explains how we can maximise our impact and how we can assess whether our efforts have worked, based on six case studies from around the world. The report is of interest to all researchers who wish to respond to policy and practice from their point of view and who are keen on publicising their evidence. It is also relevant to those who teach how to maximise research impact.