“Unintended effects”: A theorem for complex systems

Unintended effects are well known to economists and sociologists and their consequences may be devastating. The main objective of this article is to formulate a mathematical theorem, based on Gödel's famous incompleteness theorem, in which it is shown, that from the moment deontical modalities (prohibition, obligation, permission, and faculty) are introduced into the social system, responses are allowed by the system that are not produced, however, prohibited responses or unintended effects may occur.

Feminist Tigers and Patriarchal Lions: Rhetorical Strategies and Instrument Effects in the Struggle for Definition and Control over Development in Nepal

This article offers an analysis of a struggle for control of a women’s development project in Nepal. The story of this struggle is worth telling, for it is rife with the gender politics and neo-colonial context that underscore much of what goes on in contemporary Nepal. In particular, my analysis helps to unravel some of the powerful discourses, threads of interest, and yet unintended effects inevitable under a regime of development aid. The analysis demonstrates that the employment of already available discursive figures of the imperialist feminist and the patriarchal third world man are central to the rhetorical strategies taken in the conflict. I argue that the trans-discursive or “borderland” nature of development in general and women’s development in particular result in different constructions of “development” goals, means and actors based not only on divergent cultural categories but on historically specific cultural politics. I argue further that the apolitical discourse of development serves to cloak its inherently political project of social and economic transformation, making conflicts such as the one that occurred in this case not only likely to occur but also likely to be misunderstood.

WHEN INTERACTING ONLINE LEADS TO TAKING ACTION OFFLINE: EXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF ONLINE PERSUASION ON IS USERS’ PRO-ENVIRONMENTAL BEHAVIOURS

With the increasing attention towards the role of information systems (IS) as a vehicle to address environmental issues, IS researchers and practitioners have strived to leverage advanced Green IS innovations to persuade people to engage in environmentally responsible practices and support pro-environmental initiatives. Yet, existing research reveals that the persuasion effects of Green IS designs remain equivocal. In particular, many design characteristics advocated in Green IS research can produce bi-directional changes in IS users’ attitudes and behaviours. To address this issue, this thesis drew upon the circumplex model of social values (S.H. Schwartz, 1992) to explain when and how online persuasion designs come to affect people’s judgements on resource conservation and environmental protection. Three sets of working propositions and specific hypotheses were developed. Specifically, this research suggests that the use of an IS application can elicit different value primes and draw IS users’ attentions to different motivational functions of engaging in suggested behavioural changes. It is expected that matching online persuasion appeals with IS users’ personal value priorities can increase users’ acceptance of online behavioural suggestions. Second, it is hypothesized that the persuasion effect tends to be weakened, as the system users become aware of the valuematching design in a given IS application. Third, it is proposed that different value primes presented in an IS application can result in different unintended effects on IS users’ global pro-environmental attitudes and motivations. The hypotheses were tested in the two pilot studies and two full-scale online experiments. The study findings generally support the main predictions of the hypotheses. On the one hand, this thesis providesiii empirical evidence that IS design for online persuasion can be instrumental in influencing IS users’ judgements on a range of resource conservation practices. On the other hand, this work explains why the effectiveness of IS-enabled online persuasion attempts needs to be measured not only in terms of the intended changes in a target behavioural domain but also in terms of unintended changes in people’s general environmental orientations. Findings in this research may bring a different perspective on understanding and assessing the influence of Green IS applications on IS users’ judgements and behaviou

Policy, citizenship and governance : the case of disability and employment policy in Australia

Current discussions regarding the relationship between welfare governance systems and employment promotion in disability policy appeal to a rejuvenated neo-liberal and paternalistic understanding of welfare governance. At the core of this rationality is the argument that people with disabilities not only have rights, but also duties, in relation to the State. In the Australia welfare system, policy tools are deployed to produce a form of self-discipline, whereby the State emphasises personal responsibility via assessment tools, ‘mutual obligation’ policy, and motivational strategies. Drawing on a two-year semi-longitudinal study with 80 people with a disability accessing welfare benefits, we examine how welfare governance subject recipients to strategies to produce productive citizens who are able to contribute to the national goal of maintaining competitiveness in the global economy. Participants’ interviews reveal the intended and unintended effects of this activation policy, including some acceptance of the logic of welfare-to-work and counter-hegemonic resistance to de-valued social identities.

Towards improving public understanding of judgement practice in standards-referenced assessment : an Australian perspective

Internationally there has been a move towards standards-referenced assessment with countries such as Australia developing a National Curriculum and Achievement Standards, New Zealand adopting National Standards for literacy and numeracy that involve schools making and reporting judgements about the reading, writing and mathematics achievement of children up to Year 8 (the end of primary school) and in Canada, classroom assessment standards aimed at the improvement of assessment practice of K-12 education are being formulated. Standards-driven reform has major implications for teachers’ work. The consequences of adopting a standards-driven approach to educational change by systems are often under-estimated with the unintended effects not fully understood by either the policy writers, and the public, including parents. It is for these reasons that the contention developed in this article relates to the teacher’s role, which it is argued remains central to policy focused on the improvement of the quality of education and educational standards.

Introducing sustainability assessment to civil infrastructure projects & assets

Civil infrastructure plays a key role in supporting and improving current way of life. However, the assets can have a large impact on the region around them, which are both positive (usually for the purpose they are built) and negative (consequences and unintended effects). There is an increasing trend for society to place an importance on the role of sustainability to ensure that there is a world suitable for future generations. In order to ensure that the world for future generations is in the best possible condition it is increasingly important to look at integrating sustainability outcomes into the way industry operates, including the infrastructure industry. It is therefore important to undertake sustainability assessment of civil infrastructure projects. By having organisations take on sustainability assessments of civil infrastructure assets both during construction and in operation, the industry can assist to drive outcomes and results that will benefit society and future generations and make their own operations more efficient.

Reducing alcohol-related driving on China's roads : Traffic police officers' perceptions and practice

Alcohol-related driving is a longstanding, serious problem in China (Li, Xie, Nie, & Zhang, 2012). On 1st May, 2011 a national law was introduced to criminalize drunk driving, and imposed serious penalties including jail for driving with a blood alcohol level of above 80mg/100ml. This pilot study, undertaken a year after introduction of the law, sought traffic police officers’ perceptions of drink driving and the practice of breath alcohol testing (BAT) in a large city in Guangdong Province, southern China. A questionnaire survey and semi-structured interviews were used to gain an in-depth understanding of issues relevant to alcohol-related driving. Fifty-five traffic police officers were recruited for the survey and six traffic police officers with a variety of working experience including roadside alcohol breath testing, traffic crash investigation and police resourcing were interviewed individually. The officers were recruited by the first author with the assistance of the staff from Guangdong Institute of Public Health, Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Interview participants reported three primary reasons why people drink and drive: 1) being prepared to take the chance of not being apprehended by police; 2) the strong traditional Chinese drinking culture; and 3) insufficient public awareness about the harmfulness of drink driving. Problems associated with the process of breath alcohol testing (BAT) were described and fit broadly into two categories: resourcing and avoiding detection. It was reported that there were insufficient traffic police officers to conduct routine traffic policing, including alcohol testing. Police BAT equipment was considered sufficient for routine traffic situations but not highway traffic operations. Local media and posters are used by the Public Security Bureau which is responsible for education about safe driving but participants thought that the education campaigns are limited in scope. Participants also described detection avoidance strategies used by drivers including: changing route; ignoring a police instruction to stop; staying inside the vehicle with windows and doors locked to avoid being tested; intentionally not performing breath tests correctly; and arguing with officers. This pilot study provided important insights from traffic police in one Chinese city which suggest there may be potential unintended effects of introducing more severe penalties including a range of strategies reportedly used by drivers to avoid detection. Recommendations for future research include a larger study to confirm these findings and examine the training and education of drivers; the focus and reach of publicity; and possible resource needs to support police enforcement.

The Glenn A. Fry award lecture 2011 : peripheral optics of the human eye

There has been a low level of interest in peripheral aberrations and corresponding image quality for over 200 years. Most work has been concerned with the second-order aberrations of defocus and astigmatism that can be corrected with conventional lenses. Studies have found high levels of aberration, often amounting to several dioptres, even in eyes with only small central defocus and astigmatism. My investigations have contributed to understanding shape changes in the eye with increases in myopia, changes in eye optics with ageing, and how surgical interventions intended to correct central refractive errors have unintended effects on peripheral optics. My research group has measured peripheral second- and higher-order aberrations over a 42° horizontal × 32° vertical diameter visual field. There is substantial variation in individual aberrations with age and pathology. While the higher-order aberrations in the periphery are usually small compared with second-order aberrations, they can be substantial and change considerably after refractive surgery. The thrust of my research in the next few years is to understand more about the peripheral aberrations of the human eye, to measure visual performance in the periphery and determine whether this can be improved by adaptive optics correction, to use measurements of peripheral aberrations to learn more about the optics of the eye and in particular the gradient index structure of the lens, and to investigate ways of increasing the size of the field of good retinal image quality.

Disorganizing educational tropes: Conceptions of dis/ability and curriculum

A study examined the politics of dis/ability and curriculum. Data were obtained from a review of the new disability studies literature, focusing on the areas of history, sociology, anthropology, and critical legal theory. The results indicate that this new literature challenges popular psychoeducational models that assume disability as an objective medical, individual, and pathological deficiency, effectively restricting the systematic study of dis/ability as relational, external, shifting, and socially constituted. The findings suggest ways in which perceptions of “school problems” have to be adjusted to understand how the constant refiguration of normativities in everyday activities creates perceptions of disability-negative ontologies, generates experiences that incite efforts to modify those perceptions in multiple ways, and produces unintended effects from well-intended approaches that in the end remain irreducible to simplistic definitions for the one “ethical” or “politically correct” strategy.

Bycatch in marine fisheries

A review of the significant contributions in the peer-reviewed literature indicates that the discarding of marine fish known as bycatch remains one of the most significant problem facing fisheries managers. Bycatch has negative affects on marine biodiversity, is ripe with ethical and moral issues surrounding the waste of life from increased juvenile fish mortality, hinders commercial profitability and recreational satisfaction, increases management costs, and results in socio-cultural problems and conflicts. While appearing to have a simple conservation engineering solution, reducing or eliminating bycatch in marine fishing operations given the presently existing regulated open access management environment is demonstrated to actually be so complex that its effects can appear to be counter-intuitive. An ecosystem simulation model that explicitly incorporates the human and biological dimensions is used to evaluate proposed bycatch reduction regulations for two fishing fleets exploiting three out of seven species of fish, each with ten cohorts, in two resource areas. One of the fishing fleets is divided into two components representing commercial fishermen and recreational anglers. The seven fish species represent predator, prey, and competitor behaviors and one stock is treated as an endangered species. The results displayed in a series of figures demonstrate the potential unintended effects of simplistic management approaches and the need for a holistic and comprehensive approach to bycatch management. That is, an ecosystem model that explicitly incorporates socio-cultural and biophysical attributes into a common framework allows the magnitude and direction of behavioral responses to be predicted based on changes in governance or biophysical constraints to determine if management goals and objectives have been obtained through the use of quantitative metrics.

Influence of dietary nutrients on life history-related traits of black flies and mosquitoes

The sugar-feeding ecology of dipteran vectors has recently been targeted because it presents opportunities to inoculate common food sources for these dipterans with entomopathogenic bacteria as a means of controlling the population of host-seeking adult dipteran vectors. Whereas this approach to vector control holds some promise, differences in the nutrient composition and concentration in sugary food sources can influence the food selection pattern of dipteran vectors and potentially confound the outcomes of field trials on the efficacy of entomopathogenic bacteria as vector control agents. Further, nutrient components of bacteria-inoculated artificial diets may present unintended effects of extending the survivorship or fecundity of the target population and potentially render the whole approach counterproductive. The present study investigated the diet-specific factors that influence the foraging decisions of female Simulium venustum/verecundum (Diptera: Simuliidae) and female Anopheles stephensi (Diptera: Culicidae) on artificial nectar and honeydew. Paired choice experiments showed that the black flies forage more frequently from high calorie diets, which contained melezitose, or those diets that contained amino acids, compared to low calorie melezitose-free diets or amino acid-free diets. The mosquitoes however displayed a more random diet selection pattern. The effects of sugary diets on certain life-history traits considered to be important to the ecological fitness of the black flies and mosquitoes were also investigated. Sugary diets had no significant effect on the survivorship and fecundity of the black flies, but they influenced the resistance of Leucocytozoon-infected flies to the parasite. Amino acid-containing diets appeared to extend the survival of mosquitoes, and also allowed them to take more vertebrate blood when they blood fed.

L’élargissement de l’Union européenne dans un contexte de sécurisation croissante des migrations:enjeux et conséquences pour les nouveaux membres de l’Est

"En mai 2004, l’Union européenne connaissait un élargissement sans précédent, passant soudainement de 15 à 24 pays membres. Cet élargissement s’est opéré dans un contexte mondial marqué par une sécurisation accrue des migrations ; une tendance à laquelle l’Union Européenne ne saurait échapper. Cet élargissement constitue, aujourd’hui encore, un défi fondamental pour l’UE qui d’un côté craint pour sa sécurité en multipliant les politiques restrictives à l’endroit des migrations et qui, de l’autre, se doit d’intégrer ces dix nouveaux membres, pour la plupart issus de l’ancien bloc soviétique et n’ayant par conséquent que très peu d’expériences et de moyens en matière de contrôle migratoire ; ce domaine ayant été pendant plus de 60 ans l’apanage du pouvoir central de Moscou. Le défi à relever est d’autant plus grand si l’on considère le fait que ces nouveaux membres se situent géographiquement aux frontières centrales et orientales de l’Europe et en constituent ainsi l’une des plus importantes portes d’entrées. En imposant à ces nouveaux membres la reprise intégrale de l’acquis communautaire, sans tenir compte des spécificités géographiques, historiques, économiques et politiques de ces pays, l’Union européenne risque de payer le prix d’une politique hypocrite et aveugle et de favoriser la multiplication d’effets pervers, pouvant aller jusqu’à compromettre, à terme, la stabilité de la région."

Variability associated to the insertion and expression of transgenes in plants

Amb la finalitat de garantir la seguretat dels consumidors i del medi ambient, a la UE els aliments modificats genèticament (MG) estan sotmesos a un rigorós procés d'autorització que inclou: caracterització molecular del transgèn i anàlisis comparatives a nivell nutricional i agronòmic. L'ús de tècniques de profiling per avaluar la possible existència d'efectes no esperats derivats de la inserció i/o expressió del transgèn s'ha proposat com a una eina complementària per l'avaluació de la seguretat alimentària. L'objectiu de la present tesis és avaluar la variabilitat associada a la inserció i expressió de transgens en plantes, utilitzant com a exemple el blat de moro MON810. Es pretén complementar les aproximacions ja existents basades en l'estudi de paràmetres concrets mitjançant les tècniques de profiling. Des del punt de vista transcriptòmic i proteòmic, les varietats de blat de moro MON810 semblen ser substancialment equivalents a les seves varietats comparables no-MG. En conseqüència, és possible la producció de plantes MG amb el mínim d'efectes no esperats.

Place attachment and sense of belonging in the offices

Examines the concept of “place attachment” as defined in various disciplines and develops an effective conceptual approach that can be applied to facilities management. Describes the development of a model-matchmaking process adapted from Passini's model of cognitive mapping. Findings that the emergence of the new economy is undermining our ability to form attachments with people, places and companies. However, one of the unintended effects of this is that it has strengthened the value of place and aroused a longing for community. Moreover, loyalty to an organisation is increasingly determined by social and place attachment. Proposes that further research needs to be undertaken to “engineer out” the negative impacts of flexibility associated with loss of place. States that place attachment presents a challenging view of the world that is contrary to all the received wisdom in facilities management, where flexibility has always assumed an unchallenged position in relation to buildings and people. Concludes that this research area presents many pragmatic design and operational questions for facilities managers.

March 4th, 1999 : the recognition-primed decision hypothesis

On March 4, 1999, the newly appointed President of the Brazilian Central Bank, Mr Armínio Fraga, raised interest rates to a staggering 45% per annum. The objective of that decision was to keep foreign investors assets in Brazil, and prevent the country from default. At the time, Brazil suffered frem an enormously intense crisis of confidence, and fears of such default were widespread. Mr Fraga was walking a very fine line when making that decision, for it could bring forth unintended effects: the market, already concerned about Brazil's sustainability, could perceive the increased rate as an irreversible step towards the abyss inevitable default. Economic theory postulates the rational actor model as the driving force behind economic decision-making. The objective of this thesis is to present and discuss the hypothesis that this particular decision, and by extension many others, are better explained threugh the recognition-primed decision mode!.