Examining underlying determinants of fertility rates in Zambia: Evidence from the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey

Limited data exits on factors influencing fertility in Zambia. This study examined underlying determinants of fertility patterns and levels in Zambia. Data extracted from the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey was analysed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. Of 7146 women aged 15-49 years, age group 25-29 years experienced the highest prevalence of births (28.5%). Married women accounted for 27% of all births. Women with low education recorded more births (27%) than those with higher education (9.5%) (P<0.001). Fertility was higher among the poorest (28%) compared to the richest (12%) (P<0.001). Though not statistically significant, urban areas recorded more births (25%) than rural areas (15%). Education and wealth significantly influence fertility Zambia. Fertility management strategies should consider these factors and their fertility reducing effects. Improving education and wealth status of women can contribute to fertility reduction, particularly rural women. Lower fertility, with reduced mortality and migration, would provide less pressure on distribution of the limited economic resources of the country.

On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

Health Development Agency Delivery Plan 2003-06

This plan sets out the contribution the Health Development Agency (HDA) aims to make over the next three years to the cross-government objective of improving public health and reducing health inequalities. It reflects clear guidance given to the HDA by the minister for public health following the HDA۪s 2002 accountability review. The result is a smaller number of longer-term programmes fosused on four key delivery priorities: ۢ Underlying determinants of health ۢ The big killers coronary heart disease and cancer ۢ Children and young people ۢ Vulnerable adults

Sexual dimorphism in cancer.

The incidence of many types of cancer arising in organs with non-reproductive functions is significantly higher in male populations than in female populations, with associated differences in survival. Occupational and/or behavioural factors are well-known underlying determinants. However, cellular and molecular differences between the two sexes are also likely to be important. In this Opinion article, we focus on the complex interplay that sex hormones and sex chromosomes can have in intrinsic control of cancer-initiating cell populations, the tumour microenvironment and systemic determinants of cancer development, such as the immune system and metabolism. A better appreciation of these differences between the two sexes could be of substantial value for cancer prevention as well as treatment.

Essays on growth and environment

This thesis consists of a summary and four self-contained papers. Paper [I] Following the 1987 report by The World Commission on Environment and Development, the genuine saving has come to play a key role in the context of sustainable development, and the World Bank regularly publishes numbers for genuine saving on a national basis. However, these numbers are typically calculated as if the tax system is non-distortionary. This paper presents an analogue to genuine saving in a second best economy, where the government raises revenue by means of distortionary taxation. We show how the social cost of public debt, which depends on the marginal excess burden, ought to be reflected in the genuine saving. We also illustrate by presenting calculations for Greece, Japan, Portugal, U.K., U.S. and OECD average, showing that the numbers published by the World Bank are likely to be biased and may even give incorrect information as to whether the economy is locally sustainable. Paper [II] This paper examines the relationships among per capita CO2 emissions, per capita GDP and international trade based on panel data spanning the period 1960-2008 for 150 countries. A distinction is also made between OECD and Non-OECD countries to capture the differences of this relationship between developed and developing economies. We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests, and estimate a panel error correction model. The results from the error correction model suggest that there are long-term relationships between the variables for the whole sample and for Non-OECD countries. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional short-term causality between per capita GDP and international trade for the whole sample and between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions for OECD countries. Paper [III] Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their growth rates differ, whether their growth rates tend to converge, and what key factors contribute to explain economic growth. This paper deals with the average income growth, net migration, and changes in unemployment rates at the municipal level in Sweden. The aim is to explore in depth the effects of possible underlying determinants with a particular focus on local policy variables. The analysis is based on a three-equation model. Our results show, among other things, that increases in the local public expenditure and income taxe rate have negative effects on subsequent income income growth. In addition, the results show conditional convergence, i.e. that the average income among the municipal residents tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables. Paper [IV] This paper explores the relationship between income growth and income inequality using data at the municipal level in Sweden for the period 1992-2007. We estimate a fixed effects panel data growth model, where the within-municipality income inequality is one of the explanatory variables. Different inequality measures (Gini coefficient, top income shares, and measures of inequality in the lower and upper part of the income distribution) are examined. We find a positive and significant relationship between income growth and income inequality measured as the Gini coefficient and top income shares, respectively. In addition, while inequality in the upper part of the income distribution is positively associated with the income growth rate, inequality in the lower part of the income distribution seems to be negatively related to the income growth. Our findings also suggest that increased income inequality enhances growth more in municipalities with a high level of average income than in municipalities with a low level of average income.

A systems approach to sustainability and sustainable development

Includes bibliography

Abiotic factors shape temporal variation in the structure of an ant-plant network

Despite recognition of key biotic processes in shaping the structure of biological communities, few empirical studies have explored the influences of abiotic factors on the structural properties of mutualistic networks. We tested whether temperature and precipitation contribute to temporal variation in the nestedness of mutualistic ant-plant networks. While maintaining their nested structure, nestedness increased with mean monthly precipitation and, particularly, with monthly temperature. Moreover, some species changed their role in network structure, shifting from peripheral to core species within the nested network. We could summarize that abiotic factors affect plant species in the vegetation (e.g., phenology), meaning presence/absence of food sources, consequently an increase/decrease of associations with ants, and finally, these variations to fluctuations in nestedness. While biotic factors are certainly important, greater attention needs to be given to abiotic factors as underlying determinants of the structures of ecological networks.

Intraspecific individual variation of temperature tolerance associated with oxygen demand in the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

The European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is an economically important fish native to the Mediterranean and Northern Atlantic. Its complex life cycle involves many migrations through temperature gradients that affect the energetic demands of swimming. Previous studies have shown large intraspecific variation in swimming performance and temperature tolerance, which could include deleterious and advantageous traits under the evolutionary pressure of climate change. However, little is known of the underlying determinants of this individual variation. We investigated individual variation in temperature tolerance in 30 sea bass by exposing them to a warm temperature challenge test. The eight most temperature-tolerant and eight most temperature-sensitive fish were then studied further to determine maximal swimming speed (U-CAT), aerobic scope and post-exercise oxygen consumption. Finally, ventricular contractility in each group was determined using isometric muscle preparations. The temperature-tolerant fish showed lower resting oxygen consumption rates, possessed larger hearts and initially recovered from exhaustive exercise faster than the temperature-sensitive fish. Thus, whole-animal temperature tolerance was associated with important performance traits. However, the temperature-tolerant fish also demonstrated poorer maximal swimming capacity (i.e. lower UCAT) than their temperature-sensitive counterparts, which may indicate a trade-off between temperature tolerance and swimming performance. Interestingly, the larger relative ventricular mass of the temperature-tolerant fish did not equate to greater ventricular contractility, suggesting that larger stroke volumes, rather than greater contractile strength, may be associated with thermal tolerance in this species.

Variation in Body Composition Determines Long-Term Blood Pressure Changes in Pre-Hypertension The MONICA/KORA (Monitoring Trends and Determinants on Cardiovascular Diseases/Cooperative Research in the Region of Augsburg) Cohort Study

Objectives We studied the relationship between changes in body composition and changes in blood pressure levels. Background The mechanisms underlying the frequently observed progression from pre-hypertension to hypertension are poorly understood. Methods We examined 1,145 subjects from a population-based survey at baseline in 1994/1995 and at follow-up in 2004/2005. First, we studied individuals pre-hypertensive at baseline who, during 10 years of follow-up, either had normalized blood pressure (PreNorm, n = 48), persistently had pre-hypertension (PrePre, n = 134), or showed progression to hypertension (PreHyp, n = 183). In parallel, we studied predictors for changes in blood pressure category in individuals hypertensive at baseline (n = 429). Results After 10 years, the PreHyp group was characterized by a marked increase in body weight (+5.71% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.60% to 6.83%]) that was largely the result of an increase in fat mass (+17.8% [95% CI: 14.5% to 21.0%]). In the PrePre group, both the increases in body weight (+1.95% [95% CI: 0.68% to 3.22%]) and fat mass (+8.09% [95% CI: 4.42% to 11.7%]) were significantly less pronounced than in the PreHyp group (p < 0.001 for both). The PreNorm group showed no significant change in body weight (-1.55% [95% CI: -3.70% to 0.61%]) and fat mass (+0.20% [95% CI: -6.13% to 6.52%], p < 0.05 for both, vs. the PrePre group). Conclusions After 10 years of follow-up, hypertension developed in 50.1% of individuals with pre-hypertension and only 6.76% went from hypertensive to pre-hypertensive blood pressure levels. An increase in body weight and fat mass was a risk factor for the development of sustained hypertension, whereas a decrease was predictive of a decrease in blood pressure. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2010; 56: 65-76) (C) 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.

Determinants of venture capital and private equity investments in renewable energy: A cross-country study

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of mortality in oncology patients colonized or infected with Staphylococcus aureus

Oxacillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (ORSA) infection is an important cause of hospital morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to identify the main factors associated with death in patients colonized or infected with Staphylococcus aureus in a cancer center. A matched-pair case-control study enrolled all patients infected or colonized with ORSA (cases) admitted to the Hospital do Câncer in Rio de Janeiro from 01/01/1992 to 12/31/1994. A control was defined as a patient hospitalized during the same period as the case-patients and colonized or infected with oxacillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (OSSA). The study enrolled 95 cases and 95 controls. Patient distribution was similar for the two groups (p > or = 0.05) with respect to gender, underlying diseases, hospital transfer, prior infection, age, temperature, heart and respiratory rates, neutrophil count, and duration of hospitalization. Univariate analysis of putative risk factors associated with mortality showed the following significant variables: admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), presence of bacteremia, use of central venous catheter (CVC), ORSA colonization or infection, pneumonia, use of urinary catheter, primary lung infection, prior use of antibiotics, mucositis, and absence of cutaneous abscesses. Multivariate analysis showed a strong association between mortality and the following independent variables: admission to ICU (OR [odds ratio]=7.2), presence of Staphylococcus bacteremia (OR=6.8), presence of CVC (OR=5.3), and isolation of ORSA (OR=2.7). The study suggests a higher virulence of ORSA in comparison to OSSA in cancer patients.

PAP1 [poly(A) polymerase 1] homozygosity and hyperadenylation are major determinants of increased mRNA stability of CDR1 in azole-resistant clinical isolates of Candida albicans.

Using genetically matched azole-susceptible (AS) and azole-resistant (AR) clinical isolates of Candida albicans, we recently demonstrated that CDR1 overexpression in AR isolates is due to its enhanced transcriptional activation and mRNA stability. This study examines the molecular mechanisms underlying enhanced CDR1 mRNA stability in AR isolates. Mapping of the 3' untranslated region (3' UTR) of CDR1 revealed that it was rich in adenylate/uridylate (AU) elements, possessed heterogeneous polyadenylation sites, and had putative consensus sequences for RNA-binding proteins. Swapping of heterologous and chimeric lacZ-CDR1 3' UTR transcriptional reporter fusion constructs did not alter the reporter activity in AS and AR isolates, indicating that cis-acting sequences within the CDR1 3' UTR itself are not sufficient to confer the observed differential mRNA decay. Interestingly, the poly(A) tail of the CDR1 mRNA of AR isolates was approximately 35-50 % hyperadenylated as compared with AS isolates. C. albicans poly(A) polymerase (PAP1), responsible for mRNA adenylation, resides on chromosome 5 in close proximity to the mating type-like (MTL) locus. Two different PAP1 alleles, PAP1-a/PAP1-alpha, were recovered from AS (MTL-a/MTL-alpha), while a single type of PAP1 allele (PAP1-alpha) was recovered from AR isolates (MTL-alpha/MTL-alpha). Among the heterozygous deletions of PAP1-a (Deltapap1-a/PAP1-alpha) and PAP1-alpha (PAP1-a/Deltapap1-alpha), only the former led to relatively enhanced drug resistance, to polyadenylation and to transcript stability of CDR1 in the AS isolate. This suggests a dominant negative role of PAP1-a in CDR1 transcript polyadenylation and stability. Taken together, our study provides the first evidence, to our knowledge, that loss of heterozygosity at the PAP1 locus is linked to hyperadenylation and subsequent increased stability of CDR1 transcripts, thus contributing to enhanced drug resistance.

Local and Regional Scale Determinants of Biodiversity Patterns in Boreal Agricultural Landscapes

This thesis examines the local and regional scale determinants of biodiversity patterns using existing species and environmental data. The research focuses on agricultural environments that have experienced rapid declines of biodiversity during past decades. Existing digital databases provide vast opportunities for habitat mapping, predictive mapping of species occurrences and richness and understanding the speciesenvironment relationships. The applicability of these databases depends on the required accuracy and quality of the data needed to answer the landscape ecological and biogeographical questions in hand. Patterns of biodiversity arise from confounded effects of different factors, such as climate, land cover and geographical location. Complementary statistical approaches that can show the relative effects of different factors are needed in biodiversity analyses in addition to classical multivariate models. Better understanding of the key factors underlying the variation in diversity requires the analyses of multiple taxonomic groups from different perspectives, such as richness, occurrence, threat status and population trends. The geographical coincidence of species richness of different taxonomic groups can be rather limited. This implies that multiple geographical regions should be taken into account in order to preserve various groups of species. Boreal agricultural biodiversity and in particular, distribution and richness of threatened species is strongly associated with various grasslands. Further, heterogeneous agricultural landscapes characterized by moderate field size, forest patches and non-crop agricultural habitats enhance the biodiversity of rural environments. From the landscape ecological perspective, the major threats to Finnish agricultural biodiversity are the decline of connected grassland habitat networks, and general homogenization of landscape structure resulting from both intensification and marginalization of agriculture. The maintenance of key habitats, such as meadows and pastures is an essential task in conservation of agricultural biodiversity. Furthermore, a larger landscape context should be incorporated in conservation planning and decision making processes in order to respond to the needs of different species and to maintain heterogeneous rural landscapes and viable agricultural diversity in the future.

Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.