Uncertainty evaluation of an axi-symmetric measurement machine

This paper describes a method of uncertainty evaluation for axi-symmetric measurement machines which is compliant with GUM and PUMA methodologies. Specialized measuring machines for the inspection of axisymmetric components enable the measurement of properties such as roundness (radial runout), axial runout and coning. These machines typically consist of a rotary table and a number of contact measurement probes located on slideways. Sources of uncertainty include the probe calibration process, probe repeatability, probe alignment, geometric errors in the rotary table, the dimensional stability of the structure holding the probes and form errors in the reference hemisphere which is used to calibrate the system. The generic method is described and an evaluation of an industrial machine is described as a worked example. Type A uncertainties were obtained from a repeatability study of the probe calibration process, a repeatability study of the actual measurement process, a system stability test and an elastic deformation test. Type B uncertainties were obtained from calibration certificates and estimates. Expanded uncertainties, at 95% confidence, were then calculated for the measurement of; radial runout (1.2 µm with a plunger probe or 1.7 µm with a lever probe); axial runout (1.2 µm with a plunger probe or 1.5 µm with a lever probe); and coning/swash (0.44 arc seconds with a plunger probe or 0.60 arc seconds with a lever probe).

Uncertainty evaluation of multivariate quantities: A case study on electrical impedance

The paper discusses the evaluation of the uncertainty of a multivariate quantity using the Law of Propagation of Uncertainty defined in the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and a Monte Carlo method according to the GUM’s Supplement 2. The quantity analysed is the electrical impedance, which is not a scalar but a complex quantity. The used measuring method allows the evaluation of the impedance and of its uncertainty in different ways and the corresponding results are presented, compared and discussed. For comparison purposes, results of the impedance uncertainty obtained using the NIST Uncertainty Machine are also presented.

A hybrid measurement systems analysis and uncertainty of measurement approach for industrial measurement in the light controlled factory

The uncertainty of measurements must be quantified and considered in order to prove conformance with specifications and make other meaningful comparisons based on measurements. While there is a consistent methodology for the evaluation and expression of uncertainty within the metrology community industry frequently uses the alternative Measurement Systems Analysis methodology. This paper sets out to clarify the differences between uncertainty evaluation and MSA and presents a novel hybrid methodology for industrial measurement which enables a correct evaluation of measurement uncertainty while utilising the practical tools of MSA. In particular the use of Gage R&R ANOVA and Attribute Gage studies within a wider uncertainty evaluation framework is described. This enables in-line measurement data to be used to establish repeatability and reproducibility, without time consuming repeatability studies being carried out, while maintaining a complete consideration of all sources of uncertainty and therefore enabling conformance to be proven with a stated level of confidence. Such a rigorous approach to product verification will become increasingly important in the era of the Light Controlled Factory with metrology acting as the driving force to achieve the right first time and highly automated manufacture of high value large scale products such as aircraft, spacecraft and renewable power generation structures.

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

The framework of the virtual laser tracker - A systematic approach to the assessment of error sources and uncertainty in laser tracker measurement

Laser trackers have been widely used in many industries to meet increasingly high accuracy requirements. In laser tracker measurement, it is complex and difficult to perform an accurate error analysis and uncertainty evaluation. This paper firstly reviews the working principle of single beam laser trackers and state-of- The- Art of key technologies from both industrial and academic efforts, followed by a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty sources. A generic laser tracker modelling method is formulated and the framework of the virtual tracker is proposed. The VLS can be used for measurement planning, measurement accuracy optimization and uncertainty evaluation. The completed virtual laser tracking system should take all the uncertainty sources affecting coordinate measurement into consideration and establish an uncertainty model which will behave in an identical way to the real system. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

电阻率测井反演方法应用研究

Formation resistivity is one of the most important parameters to be evaluated in the evaluation of reservoir. In order to acquire the true value of virginal formation, various types of resistivity logging tools have been developed. However, with the increment of the proved reserves, the thickness of interest pay zone is becoming thinner and thinner, especially in the terrestrial deposit oilfield, so that electrical logging tools, limited by the contradictory requirements of resolution and investigation depth of this kinds of tools, can not provide the true value of the formation resistivity. Therefore, resitivity inversion techniques have been popular in the determination of true formation resistivity based on the improving logging data from new tools. In geophysical inverse problems, non-unique solution is inevitable due to the noisy data and deficient measurement information. I address this problem in my dissertation from three aspects, data acquisition, data processing/inversion and applications of the results/ uncertainty evaluation of the non-unique solution. Some other problems in the traditional inversion methods such as slowness speed of the convergence and the initial-correlation results. Firstly, I deal with the uncertainties in the data to be processed. The combination of micro-spherically focused log (MSFL) and dual laterolog(DLL) is the standard program to determine formation resistivity. During the inversion, the readings of MSFL are regarded as the resistivity of invasion zone of the formation after being corrected. However, the errors can be as large as 30 percent due to mud cake influence even if the rugose borehole effects on the readings of MSFL can be ignored. Furthermore, there still are argues about whether the two logs can be quantitatively used to determine formation resisitivities due to the different measurement principles. Thus, anew type of laterolog tool is designed theoretically. The new tool can provide three curves with different investigation depths and the nearly same resolution. The resolution is about 0.4meter. Secondly, because the popular iterative inversion method based on the least-square estimation can not solve problems more than two parameters simultaneously and the new laterolog logging tool is not applied to practice, my work is focused on two parameters inversion (radius of the invasion and the resistivty of virgin information ) of traditional dual laterolog logging data. An unequal weighted damp factors- revised method is developed to instead of the parameter-revised techniques used in the traditional inversion method. In this new method, the parameter is revised not only dependency on the damp its self but also dependency on the difference between the measurement data and the fitting data in different layers. At least 2 iterative numbers are reduced than the older method, the computation cost of inversion is reduced. The damp least-squares inversion method is the realization of Tikhonov's tradeoff theory on the smooth solution and stability of inversion process. This method is realized through linearity of non-linear inversion problem which must lead to the dependency of solution on the initial value of parameters. Thus, severe debates on efficiency of this kinds of methods are getting popular with the developments of non-linear processing methods. The artificial neural net method is proposed in this dissertation. The database of tool's response to formation parameters is built through the modeling of the laterolog tool and then is used to training the neural nets. A unit model is put forward to simplify the dada space and an additional physical limitation is applied to optimize the net after the cross-validation method is done. Results show that the neural net inversion method could replace the traditional inversion method in a single formation and can be used a method to determine the initial value of the traditional method. No matter what method is developed, the non-uniqueness and uncertainties of the solution could be inevitable. Thus, it is wise to evaluate the non-uniqueness and uncertainties of the solution in the application of inversion results. Bayes theorem provides a way to solve such problems. This method is illustrately discussed in a single formation and achieve plausible results. In the end, the traditional least squares inversion method is used to process raw logging data, the calculated oil saturation increased 20 percent than that not be proceed compared to core analysis.

Avaliação de incertezas na calibração automática do modelo SWMM

Este trabalho é referente ao desenvolvimento de um calibrador multiobjetivo automático do modelo SWMM (Storm Water Management Model), e avaliação de algumas fontes de incertezas presentes no processo de calibração, visando à representação satisfatória da transformação chuva-vazão. O código foi escrito em linguagem C, e aplica os conceitos do método de otimização multiobjetivo NSGAII (Non Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm) com elitismo controlado, além de utilizar o código fonte do modelo SWMM para a determinação das vazões simuladas. Paralelamente, também foi criada uma interface visual, para melhorar a facilidade de utilização do calibrador. Os testes do calibrador foram aplicados a três sistemas diferentes: um sistema hipotético disponibilizado no pacote de instalação do SWMM; um sistema real de pequenas dimensões, denominado La Terraza, localizado no município de Sierra Vista, Arizona (EUA); e um sistema de maiores dimensões, a bacia hidrográfica do Córrego do Gregório, localizada no município de São Carlos (SP). Os resultados indicam que o calibrador construído apresenta, em geral, eficiência satisfatória, porém é bastante dependente da qualidade dos dados observados em campo e dos parâmetros de entrada escolhidos pelo usuário. Foi demonstrada a importância da escolha dos eventos utilizados na calibração, do estabelecimento de limites adequados nos valores das variáveis de decisão, da escolha das funções objetivo e, principalmente, da qualidade e representatividade dos dados de monitoramento pluvio e fluviométrico. Conclui-se que estes testes desenvolvidos contribuem para o entendimento mais aprofundado dos processos envolvidos na modelagem e calibração, possibilitando avanços na confiabilidade dos resultados da modelagem.

Large volume metrology technologies for the light controlled factory

In the Light Controlled Factory part-to-part assembly and reduced weight will be enabled through the use of predictive fitting processes; low cost high accuracy reconfigurable tooling will be made possible by active compensation; improved control will allow accurate robotic machining; and quality will be improved through the use of traceable uncertainty based quality control throughout the production system. A number of challenges must be overcome before this vision will be realized; 1) controlling industrial robots for accurate machining; 2) compensation of measurements for thermal expansion; 3) Compensation of measurements for refractive index changes; 4) development of Embedded Metrology Tooling for in-tooling measurement and active tooling compensation; and 5) development of Software for the Planning and Control of Integrated Metrology Networks based on Quality Control with Uncertainty Evaluation and control systems for predictive processes. This paper describes how these challenges are being addressed, in particular the central challenge of developing large volume measurement process models within an integrated dimensional variation management (IDVM) system.

Analyse de sensibilité d’un multimodèle hydrologique

Les enjeux hydrologiques modernes, de prévisions ou liés aux changements climatiques, forcent l’exploration de nouvelles approches en modélisation afin de combler les lacunes actuelles et d’améliorer l’évaluation des incertitudes. L’approche abordée dans ce mémoire est celle du multimodèle (MM). L’innovation se trouve dans la construction du multimodèle présenté dans cette étude : plutôt que de caler individuellement des modèles et d’utiliser leur combinaison, un calage collectif est réalisé sur la moyenne des 12 modèles globaux conceptuels sélectionnés. Un des défis soulevés par cette approche novatrice est le grand nombre de paramètres (82) qui complexifie le calage et l’utilisation, en plus d’entraîner des problèmes potentiels d’équifinalité. La solution proposée dans ce mémoire est une analyse de sensibilité qui permettra de fixer les paramètres peu influents et d’ainsi réduire le nombre de paramètres total à caler. Une procédure d’optimisation avec calage et validation permet ensuite d’évaluer les performances du multimodèle et de sa version réduite en plus d’en améliorer la compréhension. L’analyse de sensibilité est réalisée avec la méthode de Morris, qui permet de présenter une version du MM à 51 paramètres (MM51) tout aussi performante que le MM original à 82 paramètres et présentant une diminution des problèmes potentiels d’équifinalité. Les résultats du calage et de la validation avec le « Split-Sample Test » (SST) du MM sont comparés avec les 12 modèles calés individuellement. Il ressort de cette analyse que les modèles individuels, composant le MM, présentent de moins bonnes performances que ceux calés indépendamment. Cette baisse de performances individuelles, nécessaire pour obtenir de bonnes performances globales du MM, s’accompagne d’une hausse de la diversité des sorties des modèles du MM. Cette dernière est particulièrement requise pour les applications hydrologiques nécessitant une évaluation des incertitudes. Tous ces résultats mènent à une amélioration de la compréhension du multimodèle et à son optimisation, ce qui facilite non seulement son calage, mais également son utilisation potentielle en contexte opérationnel.

A Method for Evaluation of Product Lifecycle Alternatives under Uncertainty

In each stage of product development, we need to take decisions, by evaluating multiple product alternatives based on multiple criteria. Classical evaluation methods like weighted objectives method assumes certainty about information available during product development. However, designers often must evaluate under uncertainty. Often the likely performance, cost or environmental impacts of a product proposal could be estimated only with certain confidence, which may vary from one proposal to another. In such situations, the classical approaches to evaluation can give misleading results. There is a need for a method that can aid in decision making by supporting quantitative comparison of alternatives to identify the most promising alternative, under uncertain information about the alternatives. A method called confidence weighted objectives method is developed to compare the whole life cycle of product proposals using multiple evaluation criteria under various levels of uncertainty with non crisp values. It estimates the overall worth of proposal and confidence on the estimate, enabling deferment of decision making when decisions cannot be made using current information available.

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Analytical evaluation of uncertainty on active antenna arrays

An analytical method for evaluating the uncertainty of the performance of active antenna arrays in the whole spatial spectrum is presented. Since array processing algorithms based on spatial reference are widely used to track moving targets, it is essential to be aware of the impact of the uncertainty sources on the antenna response. Furthermore, the estimation of the direction of arrival (DOA) depends on the array uncertainty. The aim of the uncertainties analysis is to provide an exhaustive characterization of the behavior of the active antenna array associated with its main uncertainty sources. The result of this analysis helps to select the proper calibration technique to be implemented. An illustrative example for a triangular antenna array used for satellite tracking is presented showing the suitability of the proposed method to carry out an efficient characterization of an active antenna array.