Accounting for the dissociating properties of organic chemicals in LCIA: an uncertainty analysis applied to micropollutants in the assessment of freshwater ecotoxicity

In life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models, the sorption of the ionic fraction of dissociating organic chemicals is not adequately modeled because conventional non-polar partitioning models are applied. Therefore, high uncertainties are expected when modeling the mobility, as well as the bioavailability for uptake by exposed biota and degradation, of dissociating organic chemicals. Alternative regressions that account for the ionized fraction of a molecule to estimate fate parameters were applied to the USEtox model. The most sensitive model parameters in the estimation of ecotoxicological characterization factors (CFs) of micropollutants were evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis in both the default USEtox model and the alternative approach. Negligible differences of CFs values and 95% confidence limits between the two approaches were estimated for direct emissions to the freshwater compartment; however the default USEtox model overestimates CFs and the 95% confidence limits of basic compounds up to three orders and four orders of magnitude, respectively, relatively to the alternative approach for emissions to the agricultural soil compartment. For three emission scenarios, LCIA results show that the default USEtox model overestimates freshwater ecotoxicity impacts for the emission scenarios to agricultural soil by one order of magnitude, and larger confidence limits were estimated, relatively to the alternative approach.

Uncertainty analysis based on sensitivity applied to angle-ply composite structures

This article describes a finite element-based formulation for the statistical analysis of the response of stochastic structural composite systems whose material properties are described by random fields. A first-order technique is used to obtain the second-order statistics for the structural response considering means and variances of the displacement and stress fields of plate or shell composite structures. Propagation of uncertainties depends on sensitivities taken as measurement of variation effects. The adjoint variable method is used to obtain the sensitivity matrix. This method is appropriated for composite structures due to the large number of random input parameters. Dominant effects on the stochastic characteristics are studied analyzing the influence of different random parameters. In particular, a study of the anisotropy influence on uncertainties propagation of angle-ply composites is carried out based on the proposed approach.

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model

The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small.

Uncertainty analysis of cost effectiveness in a tailored intervention to promote screening for colorectal cancer

Background. Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is considered cost effective but screening compliance in the US remains low. There have been very few studies on economic analyses of screening promotion strategies for colorectal cancer. The main aim of the current study is to conduct a cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) and examine the uncertainty involved in the results of the CEA of a tailored intervention to promote screening for CRC among patients of a multispeciality clinic in Houston, TX. ^ Methods. The two intervention arms received a PC based tailored program and web based educational information to promote CRC screening. The incremental cost of implementing a tailored PC based program was compared to the website based education and the status quo of no intervention for each unit of effect after 12 months of delivering the intervention. Uncertainty analysis in the point estimates of cost and effect was conducted using nonparametric bootstrapping. ^ Results. The cost of implementing a web based educational intervention was $36.00 per person and the cost of the tailored PC based interactive intervention was $43.00 per person. The additional cost per person screened for the web-based strategy was $2374 and the effect of the tailored intervention was negative. ^

Burnup Uncertainty Analysis for PWR-HFP Exercise I-1

Burn-up credit analyses are based on depletion calculations that provide an accurate prediction of spent fuel isotopic contents, followed by criticality calculations to assess keff

UPM Activities on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Assembly Depletion

UPM Activities on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Assembly Depletion

Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

Validation of the burn-up code EVOLCODE 2.0 with PWR experimental data and with a Sensitivity/Uncertainty analysis

A validation of the burn-up simulation system EVOLCODE 2.0 is presented here, involving the experimental measurement of U and Pu isotopes and some fission fragments production ratios after a burn-up of around 30 GWd/tU in a Pressurized Light Water Reactor (PWR). This work provides an in-depth analysis of the validation results, including the possible sources of the uncertainties. An uncertainty analysis based on the sensitivity methodology has been also performed, providing the uncertainties in the isotopic content propagated from the cross sections uncertainties. An improvement of the classical Sensitivity/ Uncertainty (S/U) model has been developed to take into account the implicit dependence of the neutron flux normalization, that is, the effect of the constant power of the reactor. The improved S/U methodology, neglected in this kind of studies, has proven to be an important contribution to the explanation of some simulation-experiment discrepancies for which, in general, the cross section uncertainties are, for the most relevant actinides, an important contributor to the simulation uncertainties, of the same order of magnitude and sometimes even larger than the experimental uncertainties and the experiment- simulation differences. Additionally, some hints for the improvement of the JEFF3.1.1 fission yield library and for the correction of some errata in the experimental data are presented.

Recommended practice, symbols, terms, units, and uncertainty analysis for radiometric sensor calibration /

"September 1998."

Contributions to Physics-Based Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Analysis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

Uncertainty analysis in the Model Web

This thesis provides a set of tools for managing uncertainty in Web-based models and workflows.To support the use of these tools, this thesis firstly provides a framework for exposing models through Web services. An introduction to uncertainty management, Web service interfaces,and workflow standards and technologies is given, with a particular focus on the geospatial domain.An existing specification for exposing geospatial models and processes, theWeb Processing Service (WPS), is critically reviewed. A processing service framework is presented as a solutionto usability issues with the WPS standard. The framework implements support for Simple ObjectAccess Protocol (SOAP), Web Service Description Language (WSDL) and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON), allowing models to be consumed by a variety of tools and software. Strategies for communicating with models from Web service interfaces are discussed, demonstrating the difficultly of exposing existing models on the Web. This thesis then reviews existing mechanisms for uncertainty management, with an emphasis on emulator methods for building efficient statistical surrogate models. A tool is developed to solve accessibility issues with such methods, by providing a Web-based user interface and backend to ease the process of building and integrating emulators. These tools, plus the processing service framework, are applied to a real case study as part of the UncertWeb project. The usability of the framework is proved with the implementation of aWeb-based workflow for predicting future crop yields in the UK, also demonstrating the abilities of the tools for emulator building and integration. Future directions for the development of the tools are discussed.