SCWDS Briefs: Volume 25, Number 2 (July 2009)

Table of Contents: Piroplasmosis Hits Missouri Horses Cytauxzoon felis in Wild Felids SCIF & Mossy Oak Fund HD Research Hardware Disease in a Key Deer Wildlife Poisoning in Kansas Swine Brucellosis Infects Hog Hunters SCWDS Personnel Changes NWHC Has New Director New USDI Publication on Bats Recent SCWDS Publications Available

SCWDS BRIEFS: Volume 18, Number 3 (October 2002)

• Chronic Wasting Disease Update: Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Dakota, Colorado; National CWD Management – USDA & USDI National Plan for Assisting States, Federal Agencies, and Tribes in Managing Chronic Wasting Disease in Free-ranging and Captive Cervids • West Nile virus (WNV) reaches the Pacific coast • West Nile Virus in Blue Jays • Idaho Brucellosis Linked to Wildlife: All of the epidemiological and laboratory information clearly indicates that brucellosis-infected elk transmitted the disease to the cattle herd. • Tularemia caused a die-off of captured wild prairie dogs this summer at a Texas commercial exotic animal facility that distributes the animals for sale as pets. • Raptors can acquire avian vacuolar myelinopathy (AVM) via ingestion of other affected birds. • House Finch Mycoplasmosis: bacterial eye disease of house finches • Raccoon Rabies report • Toxoplasmosis – The newest finding regarding sea otters in California is the importance of toxoplasmosis as a mortality factor. Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that can invade visceral organs and the central nervous system to cause acute, disseminated tissue necrosis and fatal meningoencephalitis in susceptible animals. In recent years, 36% of dead sea otters examined have been infected. Another tissue-invading protozoan, Sarcocystis neurona, also was found in 4% of the otters. • Recovery of remnant populations of the endangered black-footed ferret have been hampered by sylvatic plague, which is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. • Dr. Samantha Gibbs received the Wildlife Disease Association’s Student Research Recognition Award. Dr. Cynthia Tate was selected by the American Association of Veterinary Parasitologists to receive the Best Student Presentation Award. Dr. Andrea Varela won second place in the Student Presentation Award for her presentation at the meeting of the American Association Veterinary Parasitologists. Mr. Michael Yabsley received the Wildlife Disease Association Student Scholarship and the S.A. Ewing Vectorborne Parasitology Award from the University of Georgia’s College of Veterinary Medicine.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Rio Chama management plan.

"November 1990."

Environmental assessment : Gunnison travel interim restrictions : portions of Gunnison, Hinsdale, Delta, Montrose, and Saguache counties, Colorado.

"August, 2000."

Uinta Basin flora /

Includes index.

Job Corps Conservation Centers National Conference;

Mode of access: Internet.