Classification and regression tree (CART) model to predict pulmonary tuberculosis in hospitalized patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods: Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results: We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions: The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in countries with limited resources.

Ensemble fuzzy belief intrusion detection design

With the rapid growth of the Internet, computer attacks are increasing at a fast pace and can easily cause millions of dollar in damage to an organization. Detecting these attacks is an important issue of computer security. There are many types of attacks and they fall into four main categories, Denial of Service (DoS) attacks, Probe, User to Root (U2R) attacks, and Remote to Local (R2L) attacks. Within these categories, DoS and Probe attacks continuously show up with greater frequency in a short period of time when they attack systems. They are different from the normal traffic data and can be easily separated from normal activities. On the contrary, U2R and R2L attacks are embedded in the data portions of the packets and normally involve only a single connection. It becomes difficult to achieve satisfactory detection accuracy for detecting these two attacks. Therefore, we focus on studying the ambiguity problem between normal activities and U2R/R2L attacks. The goal is to build a detection system that can accurately and quickly detect these two attacks. In this dissertation, we design a two-phase intrusion detection approach. In the first phase, a correlation-based feature selection algorithm is proposed to advance the speed of detection. Features with poor prediction ability for the signatures of attacks and features inter-correlated with one or more other features are considered redundant. Such features are removed and only indispensable information about the original feature space remains. In the second phase, we develop an ensemble intrusion detection system to achieve accurate detection performance. The proposed method includes multiple feature selecting intrusion detectors and a data mining intrusion detector. The former ones consist of a set of detectors, and each of them uses a fuzzy clustering technique and belief theory to solve the ambiguity problem. The latter one applies data mining technique to automatically extract computer users’ normal behavior from training network traffic data. The final decision is a combination of the outputs of feature selecting and data mining detectors. The experimental results indicate that our ensemble approach not only significantly reduces the detection time but also effectively detect U2R and R2L attacks that contain degrees of ambiguous information.

Ensemble Fuzzy Belief Intrusion Detection Design

With the rapid growth of the Internet, computer attacks are increasing at a fast pace and can easily cause millions of dollar in damage to an organization. Detecting these attacks is an important issue of computer security. There are many types of attacks and they fall into four main categories, Denial of Service (DoS) attacks, Probe, User to Root (U2R) attacks, and Remote to Local (R2L) attacks. Within these categories, DoS and Probe attacks continuously show up with greater frequency in a short period of time when they attack systems. They are different from the normal traffic data and can be easily separated from normal activities. On the contrary, U2R and R2L attacks are embedded in the data portions of the packets and normally involve only a single connection. It becomes difficult to achieve satisfactory detection accuracy for detecting these two attacks. Therefore, we focus on studying the ambiguity problem between normal activities and U2R/R2L attacks. The goal is to build a detection system that can accurately and quickly detect these two attacks. In this dissertation, we design a two-phase intrusion detection approach. In the first phase, a correlation-based feature selection algorithm is proposed to advance the speed of detection. Features with poor prediction ability for the signatures of attacks and features inter-correlated with one or more other features are considered redundant. Such features are removed and only indispensable information about the original feature space remains. In the second phase, we develop an ensemble intrusion detection system to achieve accurate detection performance. The proposed method includes multiple feature selecting intrusion detectors and a data mining intrusion detector. The former ones consist of a set of detectors, and each of them uses a fuzzy clustering technique and belief theory to solve the ambiguity problem. The latter one applies data mining technique to automatically extract computer users’ normal behavior from training network traffic data. The final decision is a combination of the outputs of feature selecting and data mining detectors. The experimental results indicate that our ensemble approach not only significantly reduces the detection time but also effectively detect U2R and R2L attacks that contain degrees of ambiguous information.

Data Mining for Network Intrusion Detection : A comparison of data mining algorithms and an analysis of relevant features for detecting cyber-attacks

Data mining can be defined as the extraction of implicit, previously un-known, and potentially useful information from data. Numerous re-searchers have been developing security technology and exploring new methods to detect cyber-attacks with the DARPA 1998 dataset for Intrusion Detection and the modified versions of this dataset KDDCup99 and NSL-KDD, but until now no one have examined the performance of the Top 10 data mining algorithms selected by experts in data mining. The compared classification learning algorithms in this thesis are: C4.5, CART, k-NN and Naïve Bayes. The performance of these algorithms are compared with accuracy, error rate and average cost on modified versions of NSL-KDD train and test dataset where the instances are classified into normal and four cyber-attack categories: DoS, Probing, R2L and U2R. Additionally the most important features to detect cyber-attacks in all categories and in each category are evaluated with Weka’s Attribute Evaluator and ranked according to Information Gain. The results show that the classification algorithm with best performance on the dataset is the k-NN algorithm. The most important features to detect cyber-attacks are basic features such as the number of seconds of a network connection, the protocol used for the connection, the network service used, normal or error status of the connection and the number of data bytes sent. The most important features to detect DoS, Probing and R2L attacks are basic features and the least important features are content features. Unlike U2R attacks, where the content features are the most important features to detect attacks.