Further investigation of the uncertain trend in U.S. GDP

The presence of deterministic or stochastic trend in U.S. GDP has been a continuing debate in the literature of macroeconomics. Ben-David and Papell (1995) found evindence in favor of trend stationarity using the secular sample of Maddison (1995). More recently, Murray and Nelson (2000) correctly criticized this nding arguing that the Maddison data are plagued with additive outliers (AO), which bias inference towards stationarity. Hence, they propose to set the secular sample aside and conduct inference using a more homogeneous but shorter time-span post-WWII sample. In this paper we re-visit the Maddison data by employing a test that is robust against AO s. Our results suggest the U.S. GDP can be modeled as a trend stationary process.

Analogous Cycles with Lagged Co-movement: U.S. and East Asian Business Cycles

In selected East Asian economies, the behavior of detrended macroeconomic variables was found to be similar to that observed in the postwar U.S. economy. Consumption and investment are highly procyclical while the balance of trade and the price level are counter-cyclical in most of them. Labor productivity is procyclical in general. The high coherence between U.S. GDP and that of the East Asian economies suggests that business cycles in terms of frequency are also similar between the United States and East Asia. However, the GDP and consumption of East Asian countries do not necessarily co-move well with current U.S. and Japanese GDP and consumption, while East Asian consumption tends to co-move more with lagged U.S. and Japanese consumption.

Constructing a Structural Macroeconomic Model Using Multiple Techniques

This project constructs a structural model of the United States Economy. This task is tackled in two separate ways: first econometric methods and then using a neural network, both with a structure that mimics the structure of the U.S. economy. The structural model tracks the performance of U.S. GDP rather well in a dynamic simulation, with an average error of just over 1 percent. The neural network performed well, but suffered from some theoretical, as well as some implementation issues.

Stock Markets and Household Wealth: Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession in The U.S. Economy?

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds that stock market wealth effects are small, but important to consider, especially if markets are overpriced; this claim is corroborated by evidence from simulation of 'alternative scenarios' and the historical experiences of 1987 and 2001.

U.S. Economic Outlook: Quarterly developments

U.S. economic growth disappointed in the first quarter of 2016, as global conditions continued to have an adverse impact. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s third estimate, the GDP grew at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, up from a previous estimate of 0.8%, and down from 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015. Growth was under 1.5% for the last two quarters, the worst six-month performance in nearly three years.

Annotated record of the detailed examination of Mn deposits from R/V Tokaidaigaku Maru II Cruise GDP-1 stations

The present paper, deals with the results of the bottom sampling. Sampling devices were a gravity corer for heat flow measurement and dredges of bucket type.

Do increases in oil prices precede U.S. recessions?

This thesis examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity, and it attempts to address the question: do increases in oil prices (oil shocks) precede U.S. recessions? This paper also applied macroeconomics, either through the direct use of a macroeconomic point of view or using a combination of mathematical and statistical models. Two mathematical and statistical models are used to determine the ability of oil prices to predict recessions in the United States. First, using the binary cyclical (Bry-Boschan method) indicator procedure to test the turning point of oil prices compared with turning points in GDP finds that oil prices almost always turn five month before a recession, suggesting that an oil shock might occur before a recession. Second, the Granger causality test shows that oil prices change do Granger cause U.S. recessions, indicating that oil prices are a useful signal to indicate a U.S. recession. Finally, combining this analysis with the literature, there are several potential explanations that the spike in oil prices result in slower GDP growth and are a contributing factor to U.S. recessions.

Modified Steels for Cold-Forming U-Bolts Used In Leaf Springs Systems

In this work, a low alloy steel and a fabrication process were developed to produce U-Bolts for commercial vehicles. Thus, initially five types of no-heat treated steel were developed with different additions of chrome, nickel, and silicon to produce strain hardening effect during cold-forming processing of the U-Bolts, assuring the required mechanical properties. The new materials exhibited a fine perlite and ferrite microstructure due to aluminum and vanadium additions, well known as grain size refiners. The mechanical properties were evaluated in a servo-hydraulic test machine system-MTS 810 according to ASTM A370-03; E739 and E08m-00 standards. The microstructure and fractography analyses of the cold-formed steels were performed by using optical and scanning electronic microscope techniques. To evaluate the performance of the steels and the production process, fatigue tests were carried out under load control (tensile-tensile), R = 0.1 and f = 30 Hz. The Weibull statistic methodology was used for the analysis of the fatigue results. At the end of this work the 0.21% chrome content steel, Alloy 2, presented the best fatigue performance.

THE SPECTRAL EVOLUTION AND EJECTA OF RECURRENT NOVA U Sco IN THE 2010 OUTBURST

Synoptic spectroscopic observations of the U Sco 2010 outburst from maximum light to quiescence as well as a contemporaneous X-ray observation are presented and analyzed. The X-ray spectrum 52 days after outburst indicates a hot source ( kT(bb) similar to 70 eV). Narrow-line components from the irradiated companion atmosphere were observed in hydrogen and helium optical recombination lines. The formation of a nebular spectrum is seen for the first time in this class of recurrent novae, allowing a detailed study of the ejecta using photoionization models. Unusual [O III] auroral-to-nebular line ratios were found and possible scenarios of their origin are discussed. The modeling of the emission line spectrum suggests highly heterogeneous ejecta with masses around or above 3 x 10(-6) M(sun).

Identification by computer-simulated RFLP of phytoplasmas associated with eggplant giant calyx representative of two subgroups, a lineage of 16SrIII-J and the new subgroup 16SrIII-U

Symptoms resembling giant calyx, a graft-transmissible disease, were observed on 1-5% of eggplant (aubergine; Solanum melongena L.) plants in production fields in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Phytoplasmas were detected in 1 2 of 1 2 samples from symptomatic plants that were analysed by a nested PCR assay employing 16S rRNA gene primers R16mF2/R16mR1 followed by R16F2n/R16R2. RFLP analysis of the resulting rRNA gene products (1.2 kb) indicated that all plants contained similar phytoplasmas, each closely resembling strains previously classified as members of RFLP group 16SrIII (X-disease group). Virtual RFLP and phylogenetic analyses of sequences derived from PCR products identified phytoplasmas infecting eggplant crops grown in Piracicaba as a lineage of the subgroup 16SrIII-J, whereas phytoplasmas detected in plants grown in Braganca Paulista were tentatively classified as members of a novel subgroup 16SrIII-U. These findings confirm eggplant as a new host of group 16SrIII-J phytoplasmas and extend the known diversity of strains belonging to this group in Brazil.

The Future of the Australian-U.S. Security Relationship

Australia is an increasingly important ally for the United States. It is willing to be part of challenging global missions, and its strong economy and growing self-confi dence suggest a more prominent role in both global and regional affairs. Moreover, its government has worked hard to strengthen the link between Canberra and Washington. Political and strategic affi nities between the two countries have been refl ected in--and complemented by--practiced military interoperability, as the two allies have sustained a pattern of security cooperation in relation to East Timor, Afghanistan and Iraq in the last 4 years. This growing collaboration between the two countries suggests that a reinvention of the traditional bilateral security relationship is taking place. At the core of this process lies an agreement about the need for engaging in more proactive strategic behavior in the changing global security environment, and a mutual acceptance of looming military and technological interdependence. But this new alliance relationship is already testing the boundaries of bipartisan support for security policy within Australia. Issues of strategic doctrine, defense planning, and procurement are becoming topics of fi erce policy debate. Such discussion is likely to be sharpened in the years ahead as Australia’s security relationship with the United States settles into a new framework.

Matrix elements of U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. I. The del-operator MEs in a two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis

This is the first in a series of three articles which aimed to derive the matrix elements of the U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. This is a basis appropriate to many-electron systems which have a natural partitioning of the orbital space and where also spin-dependent terms are included in the Hamiltonian. The method is based on a new spin-dependent unitary group approach to the many-electron correlation problem due to Gould and Paldus [M. D. Gould and J. Paldus, J. Chem. Phys. 92, 7394, (1990)]. In this approach, the matrix elements of the U(2n) generators in the U(n) x U(2)-adapted electronic Gelfand basis are determined by the matrix elements of a single Ll(n) adjoint tensor operator called the del-operator, denoted by Delta(j)(i) (1 less than or equal to i, j less than or equal to n). Delta or del is a polynomial of degree two in the U(n) matrix E = [E-j(i)]. The approach of Gould and Paldus is based on the transformation properties of the U(2n) generators as an adjoint tensor operator of U(n) x U(2) and application of the Wigner-Eckart theorem. Hence, to generalize this approach, we need to obtain formulas for the complete set of adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis. The nonzero shift coefficients are uniquely determined and may he evaluated by the methods of Gould et al. [see the above reference]. In this article, we define zero-shift adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis which are appropriate to the many-electron problem. By definition, these are proportional to the corresponding two-shell del-operator matrix elements, and it is shown that the Racah factorization lemma applies. Formulas for these coefficients are then obtained by application of the Racah factorization lemma. The zero-shift adjoint reduced Wigner coefficients required for this procedure are evaluated first. All these coefficients are needed later for the multishell case, which leads directly to the two-shell del-operator matrix elements. Finally, we discuss an application to charge and spin densities in a two-shell molecular system. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons.

Matrix elements of U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. II. The two-shell nonzero shift ACCs and U(2n) generator MEs

This is the second in a series of articles whose ultimate goal is the evaluation of the matrix elements (MEs) of the U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. This extends the existing unitary group approach to spin-dependent configuration interaction (CI) and many-body perturbation theory calculations on molecules to systems where there is a natural partitioning of the electronic orbital space. As a necessary preliminary to obtaining the U(2n) generator MEs in a multishell spin-orbit basis, we must obtain a complete set of adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis. The zero-shift coefficients were obtained in the first article of the series. in this article, we evaluate the nonzero shift adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis. We then demonstrate that the one-shell versions of these coefficients may be obtained by taking the Gelfand-Tsetlin limit of the two-shell formulas. These coefficients,together with the zero-shift types, then enable us to write down formulas for the U(2n) generator matrix elements in a two-shell spin-orbit basis. Ultimately, the results of the series may be used to determine the many-electron density matrices for a partitioned system. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.