Longitudinal localization of tropical intraseasonal variability

Intraseasonal time-scales play an important role in tropical variability. Two modes that contribute significantly to tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) are the eastward-propagating MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO), and westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves. This note reports on a correspondence between the longitudinal gradient of mean tropical precipitable water (PW), and the geographical regions of genesis, and convective activity, of both these large-scale tropical systems. Our finding is based on an analysis of PW from the MERRA reanalysis product. The data indicate that the mean tropical PW has a dominant wavenumber two (three) structure in longitude in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Departures from a longitudinally homogeneous state are attributed to the influence of subtropical anticyclones, and are accentuated by monsoonal regions of both hemispheres. This mean structure results in a sharply localized longitudinal gradient of PW. Remarkably, regions with positive gradients (such as the Northern and Southern Hemisphere western Indian Ocean), i.e. they have larger PW to the east, are the very zones that are implicated in the formation, and show high levels of convective activity, of the eastward-moving MJO. On the other hand, regions with negative gradients (such as the Southern Hemisphere central Pacific) are the very regions where genesis, and maxima in variance, of westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves are known to occur. Apart from providing a first-order longitudinal footprint of the convective phase of these systems, this correspondence reinforces the role of the mean climatic state in tropical ISV. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Intraseasonal variability of mixed layer depth in the tropical Indian Ocean

In this paper, we use an observational dataset built from Argo in situ profiles to describe the main large-scale patterns of intraseasonal mixed layer depth (MLD) variations in the Indian Ocean. An eddy permitting (0.25A degrees) regional ocean model that generally agrees well with those observed estimates is then used to investigate the mechanisms that drive MLD intraseasonal variations and to assess their potential impact on the related SST response. During summer, intraseasonal MLD variations in the Bay of Bengal and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean primarily respond to active/break convective phases of the summer monsoon. In the southern Arabian Sea, summer MLD variations are largely driven by seemingly-independent intraseasonal fluctuations of the Findlater jet intensity. During winter, the Madden-Julian Oscillation drives most of the intraseasonal MLD variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Large winter MLD signals in northern Arabian Sea can, on the other hand, be related to advection of continental temperature anomalies from the northern end of the basin. In all the aforementioned regions, peak-to-peak MLD variations usually reach 10 m, but can exceed 20 m for the largest events. Buoyancy flux and wind stirring contribute to intraseasonal MLD fluctuations in roughly equal proportions, except for the Northern Arabian Sea in winter, where buoyancy fluxes dominate. A simple slab ocean analysis finally suggests that the impact of these MLD fluctuations on intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability is probably rather weak, because of the compensating effects of thermal capacity and sunlight penetration: a thin mixed-layer is more efficiently warmed at the surface by heat fluxes but loses more solar flux through its lower base.

Intraseasonal Variation of the Summer Monsoon I:Observational Aspects

Within the summer monsoon, the circulation and rainfall over the Indian region exhibit large variations over the synoptic scale of 3-7 days and the supersynoptic scales of 10 days and longer. In this paper we discuss some facets of intraseasonal variation on the supersynoptic scale on the basis of existing observational studies and some new analysis. The major variation of the summer monsoon rainfall on this scale is the active-break cycle. The deep convection over the Indian region on a typical day in the active phase is organized over thousands of kilometers in the zonal direction and is associated with a tropical convergence zone (TCZ). The intraseasonal variations on the supersynoptic scale are also coherent on these scales and are related to the space-time variation of the large-scale TCZ. The latitudinal distribution of the occurrence of the TCZ is bimodal with the primary mode over the heated continent and a secondary mode over the ocean. The variation of the continental TCZ is generally out of phase with that of the oceanic TCZ. During the active spells, the TCZ persists over the continent in the monsoon zone. The revival from breaks occurs either by northward propagation of the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean or by genesis of a disturbance in the monsoon zone (often as a result of westward propagations from W. Pacific). The mechanisms governing the fluctuation between active spells and breaks, the interphase transition and the complex interactions of the TCZ over the Indian subcontinent with the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the W. Pacific, have yet to be completely understood.

Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.

Rapid teleconnections associated with individual tropical cyclones

Several studies have shown that tropical heating variations at intraseasonal to interannual time scales may be associated with global climate anomalies. During the past decade, relatively high frequency (daily to weekly) variations in tropical convective activity have also been found to produce significant midlatitude responses within days to weeks. In this study, we investigate the processes by which individual tropical cyclones affect midlatitude weather and climate.

Dynamics of intraseasonal sea level and thermocline variability in the equatorial Atlantic during 2002-03

Satellite and in situ observations in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean during 2002-03 show dominant spectral peaks at 40-60 days and secondary peaks at 10-40 days in sea level and thermocline within the intraseasonal period band (10-80 days). A detailed investigation of the dynamics of the intraseasonal variations is carried out using an ocean general circulation model, namely, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Two parallel experiments are performed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin for the period 2000-03: one is forced by daily scatterometer winds from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite together with other forcing fields, and the other is forced by the low-passed 80-day version of the above fields. To help in understanding the role played by the wind-driven equatorial waves, a linear continuously stratified ocean model is also used. Within 3 degrees S-3 degrees N of the equatorial region, the strong 40-60-day sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and thermocline variability result mainly from the first and second baroclinic modes equatorial Kelvin waves that are forced by intraseasonal zonal winds, with the second baroclinic mode playing a more important role. Sharp 40-50-day peaks of zonal and meridional winds appear in both the QuikSCAT and Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) data for the period 2002-03, and they are especially strong in 2002. Zonal wind anomaly in the central-western equatorial basin for the period 2000-06 is significantly correlated with SSHA across the equatorial basin, with simultaneous/ lag correlation ranging from-0.62 to 0.74 above 95% significance. Away from the equator (3 degrees-5 degrees N), however, sea level and thermocline variations in the 40-60-day band are caused largely by tropical instability waves (TIWs). On 10-40-day time scales and west of 10 degrees W, the spectral power of sea level and thermocline appears to be dominated by TIWs within 5 degrees S-5 degrees N of the equatorial region. The wind-driven circulation, however, also provides a significant contribution. Interestingly, east of 10 W, SSHA and thermocline variations at 10 40- day periods result almost entirely from wind-driven equatorial waves. During the boreal spring of 2002 when TIWs are weak, Kelvin waves dominate the SSHA across the equatorial basin (2 degrees S-2 degrees N). The observed quasi-biweekly Yanai waves are excited mainly by the quasi-biweekly meridional winds, and they contribute significantly to the SSHA and thermocline variations in 1 degrees-5 degrees N and 1 degrees-5 degrees S regions.

Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in daily data from gauge and satellite

It has long been thought that tropical rainfall retrievals from satellites have large errors. Here we show, using a new daily 1 degree gridded rainfall data set based on about 1800 gauges from the India Meteorology Department (IMD), that modern satellite estimates are reasonably close to observed rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Daily satellite rainfalls from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP 1DD) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are available since 1998. The high summer monsoon (June-September) rain over the Western Ghats and Himalayan foothills is captured in TMPA data. Away from hilly regions, the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of rainfall (averaged over regions of a few hundred kilometers linear dimension) from both satellite products are about 15% of observations. Satellite data generally underestimate both the mean and variability of rain, but the phase of intraseasonal variations is accurate. On synoptic timescales, TMPA gives reasonable depiction of the pattern and intensity of torrential rain from individual monsoon low-pressure systems and depressions. A pronounced biennial oscillation of seasonal total central India rain is seen in all three data sets, with GPCP 1DD being closest to IMD observations. The new satellite data are a promising resource for the study of tropical rainfall variability.

Interannual Variations of Sea Surface Temperature over the Arabian Sea and the Indian Monsoon: A New Perspective

The interannual variation of surface fields over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are studied using data between 1900 and 1979. It is emphasized that the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) over the north Indian Ocean and monsoon rainfall are significantly affected by synoptic systems and other intraseasonal variations. To highlight the interannual signals it is important to remove the large-amplitude high-frequency noise and very low frequency long-term trends, if any. By suitable spatial and temporal averaging of the SST and the rainfall data and by removing the long-term trend from the SST data, we have been able to show that there exists a homogeneous region in the southeastern Arabian Sea over which the March�April (MA) SST anomalies are significantly correlated with the seasonal (June�September) rainfall over India. A potential of this premonsoon signal for predicting the seasonal rainfall over India is indicated. It is shown that the correlation between the SST and the seasonal monsoon rainfall goes through a change of sign from significantly positive with premonsoon SST to very small values with SST during the monsoon season and to significantly negative with SST during the post-monsoon months. For the first time, we have demonstrated that heavy or deficient rainfall years are associated with large-scale coherent changes in the SST (although perhaps of small amplitude) over the north Indian 0cean. We also indicate possible reasons for the apparent lack of persistence of the premonsoon SST anomalies.

A delta13C record of late Quaternary climate change from tropical peats in southern India

STABLE-ISOTOPE ratios of carbon in soils or lake sediments1-3 and of oxygen and hydrogen in peats4,5 have been found to reflect past moisture variations and hence to provide valuable palaeoclimate records. Previous applications of the technique to peat have been restricted to temperate regions, largely because tropical climate variations are less pronounced, making them harder to resolve. Here we present a deltaC-13 record spanning the past 20 kyr from peats in the Nilgiri hills, southern India. Because the site is at high altitude (>2,000 m above sea level), it is possible to resolve a clear climate signal. We observe the key climate shifts that are already known to have occurred during the last glacial maximum (18 kyr ago) and the subsequent deglaciation. In addition, we observe an arid phase from 6 to 3.5 kyr ago, and a short, wet phase about 600 years ago. The latter appears to correspond to the Mediaeval Warm Period, which previously was believed to be confined to Europe and North America6,7. Our results therefore suggest that this event may have extended over the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Mechanisms of summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

Intraseasonal variations (ISV) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is highest in its northwestern part. An Indian Ocean model forced by QuikSCAT winds and climatological river discharge (QR run) reproduces ISV of SST, albeit with weaker magnitude. Air-sea fluxes, in the presence of a shallow mixed layer, efficiently effect intraseasonal SST fluctuations. Warming during intraseasonal events is smaller (<1°C) for June - July period and larger (1.5° to 2°C) during September, the latter due to a thinner mixed layer. To examine the effect of salinity on ISV, the model was run by artificially increasing the salinity (NORR run) and by decreasing it (MAHA10 run). In NORR, both rainfall and river discharge were switched off and in MAHA10 the discharge by river Mahanadi was increased tenfold. The spatial pattern of ISV as well as its periodicity was similar in QR, NORR and MAHA10. The ISV was stronger in NORR and weaker in MAHA10, compared to QR. In NORR, both intraseasonal warming and cooling were higher than in QR, the former due to reduced air-sea heat loss as the mean SST was lower, and the latter due to enhanced subsurface processes resulting from weaker stratification. In MAHA10, both warming and cooling were lower than in QR, the former due to higher air-sea heat loss owing to higher mean SST, and the latter due to weak subsurface processes resulting from stronger stratification. These model experiments suggest that salinity effects are crucial in determining amplitudes of intraseasonal SST variations in the BoB.

Processes driving intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the warm pool: the contribution of westerly wind events

We investigate the processes responsible for the intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (WPEE), which appear to play a role in the onset and development of El Niño events. We use 25 years of output from an ocean general circulation model experiment that is able to accurately capture the observed displacements of the WPEE, sea level anomalies, and upper ocean zonal currents at intraseasonal time scales in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Our results confirm that WPEE displacements driven by westerly wind events (WWEs) are largely controlled by zonal advection. This paper has also two novel findings: first, the zonal current anomalies responsible for the WPEE advection are driven primarily by local wind stress anomalies and not by intraseasonal wind-forced Kelvin waves as has been shown in most previous studies. Second, we find that intraseasonal WPEE fluctuations that are not related to WWEs are generally caused by intraseasonal variations in net heat flux, in contrast to interannual WPEE displacements that are largely driven by zonal advection. This study hence raises an interesting question: can surface heat flux-induced zonal WPEE motions contribute to El Niño–Southern Oscillation evolution, as WWEs have been shown to be able to do?

30 years of synoptic observations from Neumayer Station with links to datasets

High temporal resolution (three hours) records of temperature, wind speed and sea level pressure recorded at Antarctic research station Neumayer (70°S, 8°W) during 1982-2011 are analysed to identify oscillations from daily to intraseasonal timescales. The diurnal cycle dominates the three-hourly time series of temperature during the Antarctic summer and is almost absent during winter. In contrast, the three-hourly time series of wind speed and sea level pressure show a weak diurnal cycle. The dominant pattern of the intraseasonal variability of these quantities, which captures the out-of-phase variation of temperature and wind speed with sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of ~ 40 days and ~ 80 days, respectively. Correlation and composite analysis reveal that these oscillations may be related to tropical intraseasonal oscillations via large-scale eastward propagating atmospheric circulation wave-trains. The second pattern of intraseasonal variability, which captures in-phase variations of temperature, wind and sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of ~ 35, ~ 60 and ~ 120 days. These oscillations are attributed to the Southern Annular Mode/Antarctic Oscillation (SAM/AAO) which shows enhanced variability at these timescales. We argue that intraseasonal oscillations of tropical climate and SAM/AAO are related to distinct patterns of climate variables measured at Neumayer.

Dynamical processes in the stratosphere and upper troposphere and their influence on the distribution of trace gases in the polar atmosphere

Transport plays an important role in the distribution of long-lived gases such as ozone and water vapour in the atmosphere. Understanding of observed variability in these gases as well as prediction of the future changes depends therefore on our knowledge of the relevant atmospheric dynamics. This dissertation studies certain dynamical processes in the stratosphere and upper troposphere which influence the distribution of ozone and water vapour in the atmosphere. The planetary waves that originate in the troposphere drive the stratospheric circulation. They influence both the meridional transport of substances as well as parameters of the polar vortices. In turn, temperatures inside the polar vortices influence abundance of the Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) and therefore the chemical ozone destruction. Wave forcing of the stratospheric circulation is not uniform during winter. The November-December averaged stratospheric eddy heat flux shows a significant anticorrelation with the January-February averaged eddy heat flux in the midlatitude stratosphere and troposphere. These intraseasonal variations are attributable to the internal stratospheric vacillations. In the period 1979-2002, the wave forcing exhibited a negative trend which was confined to the second half of winter only. In the period 1958-2002, area, strength and longevity of the Arctic polar vortices do not exhibit significant long-term changes while the area with temperatures lower than the threshold temperature for PSC formation shows statistically significant increase. However, the Arctic vortex parameters show significant decadal changes which are mirrored in the ozone variability. Monthly ozone tendencies in the Northern Hemisphere show significant correlations (|r|=0.7) with proxies of the stratospheric circulation. In the Antarctic, the springtime vortex in the lower stratosphere shows statistically significant trends in temperature, longevity and strength (but not in area) in the period 1979-2001. Analysis of the ozone and water vapour vertical distributions in the Arctic UTLS shows that layering below and above the tropopause is often associated with poleward Rossby wave-breaking. These observations together with calculations of cross-tropopause fluxes emphasize the importance of poleward Rossby wave breaking for the stratosphere-troposphere exchange in the Arctic.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.