Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Evaluating thermal treeline indicators based on air and soil temperature using an air-to-soil temperature transfer model

In recent research, both soil (root-zone) and air temperature have been used as predictors for the treeline position worldwide. In this study, we intended to (a) test the proposed temperature limitation at the treeline, and (b) investigate effects of season length for both heat sum and mean temperature variables in the Swiss Alps. As soil temperature data are available for a limited number of sites only, we developed an air-to-soil transfer model (ASTRAMO). The air-to-soil transfer model predicts daily mean root-zone temperatures (10cm below the surface) at the treeline exclusively from daily mean air temperatures. The model using calibrated air and root-zone temperature measurements at nine treeline sites in the Swiss Alps incorporates time lags to account for the damping effect between air and soil temperatures as well as the temporal autocorrelations typical for such chronological data sets. Based on the measured and modeled root-zone temperatures we analyzed. the suitability of the thermal treeline indicators seasonal mean and degree-days to describe the Alpine treeline position. The root-zone indicators were then compared to the respective indicators based on measured air temperatures, with all indicators calculated for two different indicator period lengths. For both temperature types (root-zone and air) and both indicator periods, seasonal mean temperature was the indicator with the lowest variation across all treeline sites. The resulting indicator values were 7.0 degrees C +/- 0.4 SD (short indicator period), respectively 7.1 degrees C +/- 0.5 SD (long indicator period) for root-zone temperature, and 8.0 degrees C +/- 0.6 SD (short indicator period), respectively 8.8 degrees C +/- 0.8 SD (long indicator period) for air temperature. Generally, a higher variation was found for all air based treeline indicators when compared to the root-zone temperature indicators. Despite this, we showed that treeline indicators calculated from both air and root-zone temperatures can be used to describe the Alpine treeline position.

Structure and spatial variability of Pinus uncinata Ram. growth forms at two contrasting treeline ecotones in the Spanish Pyrenees.

Describimos la distribución espacial de individuos de Pinus uncinata clasificados según su forma de crecimiento y tamaño en dos ecotonos poco perturbados del límite altitudinal del árbol situados en los Pirineos Centrales españoles (Ordesa, O; Tessó, T). En cada sitio situamos una parcela rectangular (30 140 m), que incluía los límites del árbol y del bosque, y cuyo lado mayor seguía el gradiente altitudinal. En ambos sitios, los individuos vivos eran más grandes y tenían un mayor número de cohortes de acículas pendiente abajo. La distribución de las clases de individuos según su forma de crecimiento y tamaño en el sitio O seguía una secuencia de mayor tamaño pendiente abajo, desde abundantes individuos policórmicos arbustivos (krummholz) con pocas cohortes de acículas (1-3) hasta individuos arbóreos mayores unicórmicos con varias cohortes de acículas (4-12). Por el contrario, los cambios estructurales en el ecotono del sitio T fueron graduales y no siguieron de forma tan clara dicha secuencia

Spatial variability of tree hight at treeline ecotones in the Pyrenees.

We describe the spatial distribution of tree height of Pinus uncinata at two undisturbed altitudinal treeline ecotones in the southern Pyrenees (Ordesa, O, and Tessó, T). At each site, a rectangular plot (30 x 140 m) was located with its longest side parallel to the slope and encompassing treeline and timberline. At site O, height increased abruptly going downslope with a high spatial autocorrelation at short distances. In contrast, the changes of tree height across the ecotone at site T were gradual, and tree height was less spatially autocorrelated. These results can be explained by the greater importance of wind and snow avalanches at sites O and T, respectively.

Determinants of Polylepis (Rosaceae) Forest Distribution and Treeline Formation in the High Andes

High elevation treelines are formed under common temperature conditions worldwide, but the functional mechanisms that ultimately constrain tree growth are poorly known. In addition to environmental constraints, the distribution of high elevation forests is largely affected by human influence. Andean Polylepis (Rosaceae) forests are an example of such a case, forests commonly growing in isolated stands disconnected from the lower elevation montane forests. There has been ample discussion as to the role of environmental versus anthropogenic causes of this fragmented distribution of Polylepis forests, but the importance of different factors is still unclear. In this thesis, I studied functional, environmental and anthropogenic aspects determining Polylepis forest distribution. Specifically, I assessed the degree of genetic determinism in the functional traits that enable Polylepis species to grow in cold and dry conditions. I also studied the role of environment and human influence constraining Polylepis forest distribution. I found evidence of genetically determined climatic adaptations in the functional traits of Polylepis. High elevation species had reduced leaf size and increased root tip abundance compared to low elevation species. Thus these traits have potentially played an important role in species evolution and adaptation to high elevation habitats, especially to low temperatures. I also found reduced photosynthesis rate among high elevation tree species compared to low elevation species, supporting carbon source limitation at treelines. At low elevations, Polylepis forest distribution appeared to be largely defined by human influence. This suggests that the absence of Polylepis forests in large areas in the Andes is the result of several environmental and anthropogenic constraints, the role of environment becoming stronger towards high elevations. I also show that Polylepis trees grow at remarkably low air and soil temperatures near treelines, and present new evidence of the role of air temperatures in constraining tree growth at high elevations. I further show that easily measurable indices of accessibility are related to the degree of degradation of Polylepis forest, and can therefore be used in the rapid identification of potentially degraded Polylepis forests. This is of great importance for the conservation and restoration planning of Polylepis forests in the Andes. In a global context, the results of this thesis add to our scientific knowledge concerning high elevation adaptations in trees, and increase our understanding of the factors constraining tree growth and forest distribution at high-­elevation treelines worldwide.

Impact of Holocene climate changes on alpine and treeline vegetation at Sanetsch Pass, Bernese Alps, Switzerland

In order to infer reactions of treeline and alpine vegetation to climatic change, past vegetation changes are reconstructed on the basis of pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analysis. The sampled sediment cores originate from the small pond Emines, located at the Sanetsch Pass (connecting the Valais and Bern, Switzerland) at an altitude of 2288 m a.s.l. Today's treeline is at ca. 2200 m a.s.l. in the area, though due to special pass (saddle) conditions it is locally depressed to ca. 2060 m a.s.l. Our results reveal that the area around Emines was covered by treeless alpine vegetation during most of the past 12,000 years. Single individuals of Betula, Larix decidua and possibly Pinus cembra occurred during the Holocene. Major centennial to millennial-scale responses of treeline vegetation to climatic changes are evident. However, alpine vegetation composition remained rather stable between 11,500 and 6000 cal. BP, showing that Holocene climatic changes of +/− 1 °C hardly influenced the local vegetation at Emines. The rapid warming of 3–4 °C at the Late Glacial/Holocene transition (11,600 cal. BP) caused significant altitudinal displacements of alpine species that were additionally affected by the rapid upward movement of trees and shrubs. Since the beginning of the Neolithic, vegetation changes at Sanetsch Pass resulted from a combination of climate change and human impact. Anthropogenic fire increase and land-use change combined with a natural change from subcontinental to more oceanic climate during the second half of the Holocene led to the disappearance of P. cembra in the study area, but favoured the occurrence of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. The mid- to late-Holocene decline of Abies alba was primarily a consequence of human impact, since this mesic species should have benefitted from a shift to more oceanic conditions. Future alpine vegetation changes will be a function of the amplitude and rapidity of global warming as well as human land use. Our results imply that alpine vegetation at our treeline pass site was never replaced by forests since the last ice-age. This may change in the future if anticipated climate change will induce upslope migration of trees. The results of this study emphasise the necessity of climate change mitigation in order to prevent biodiversity losses as a consequence of unprecedented community and species displacement in response to climatic change.

Holocene climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps

Treelines are expected to rise to higher elevations with climate warming; the rate and extent however are still largely unknown. Here we present the first multi-proxy palaeoecological study from the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps that covers the entire Holocene. We reconstructed climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee, an alpine lake at 2,065 m a.s.l., by using seismic sedimentary surveys, loss on ignition, visible spectrum reflectance spectroscopy, pollen, spore, macrofossil and charcoal analyses. Afforestation with Larix decidua and tree Betula (probably B. pendula) started at ~9,800 cal. b.p., more than 1,000 years later than at similar elevations in the Central and Southern Alps, indicating cooler temperatures and/or a high seasonality. Highest biomass production and forest position of ~2,100–2,300 m a.s.l. are inferred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum from 7,000 to 5,000 cal. b.p. With the onset of pastoralism and transhumance at 6,800–6,500 cal. b.p., human impact became an important factor in the vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee. This early evidence of pastoralism is documented by the presence of grazing indicators (pollen, spores), as well as a wealth of archaeological finds at the nearby mountain pass of Schnidejoch. Human and fire impact during the Neolithic and Bronze Ages led to the establishment of pastures and facilitated the expansion of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. We expect that in mountain areas with land abandonment, the treeline will react quickly to future climate warming by shifting to higher elevations, causing drastic changes in species distribution and composition as well as severe biodiversity losses.

Treeline Fluctuations Recorded for 12,500 Years by Soil Profiles, Pollen, and Plant Macrofossils in the Central Swiss Alps

Past treelines can rarely be recorded by pollen percentages alone, but pollen concentration, pollen influx, and plant macrofossils (including stomata of conifers) are more reliable indicators. In addition, ancient forest soils above today's treeline may trace the maximum upper expansion of the forest since the last glaciation. Charcoal in such soil profiles may be radiocarbon dated. Our example from the Central Swiss Alps at the Alpe d'Essertse consists of a plant-macrofossil diagram and pollen diagrams of the pond Gouille Rion at 2343 m a.s.l. and a sequence of soil profiles from 1780 m to 2600 m a.s.l. The area around the pond was forested with LariJc decidua and Pinus cembra between 9500 and 3600 BP. After 4700 BP the forest became more open and Juniperus nana and Alnus viridis expanded (together with Picea abies in the subalpine forest). Between 1700 and 900 BP the Juniperus nana and Alnus viridis scrubs declined while meadows and pastures took over, so that the pond Gouille Rion was definitively above timber­ line. The highest Holocene treeline was at 2400 to 2450 m a.s.l. (i.e. 50 to 100 m higher than the uppermost single specimen of Pinus cembra today) between 9000 and 4700 BP, but it is not yet dated in more detail. The highest charcoal of Pinus cembra at 2380 m a.s.l. has a radiocarbon date of 6010 ± 70 BP. Around 6900 BP a strong climatic deterioration caused an opening of timberline forest. First indicators of anthropogenic influence occurred at 4700 BP, when the forest limit started to move down. The lowering of timberline after 4700 BP was probably due to combined effects of human and climatic impact.

PLANT MACROFOSSIL METHODS AND STUDIES | Treeline Studies

Macrofossil series from mountainous and polar areas such as the Alps, the Scandes, and the Rocky Mountains provide useful information about the late Quaternary course of treelines. Reconstructions of past treeline positions and compositions after the Ice Age can be used to infer paleoclimatic information or to study treeline ecosystem responses to (rapid) climatic change. Both approaches are illustrated by study cases. In addition to these paleoclimatic and paleoecological issues, macrofossil records can be used to validate dynamic treeline vegetation models. An example from the Alps shows the high potential of such a procedure towards applying forest-succession models for assessing future vegetation dynamics at treeline.