Stochastic processes and their applications time dependent solutions for some queueing and inventory models

The objective of this thesis is to study the time dependent behaviour of some complex queueing and inventory models. It contains a detailed analysis of the basic stochastic processes underlying these models. In the theory of queues, analysis of time dependent behaviour is an area.very little developed compared to steady state theory. Tine dependence seems certainly worth studying from an application point of view but unfortunately, the analytic difficulties are considerable. Glosod form solutions are complicated even for such simple models as M/M /1. Outside M/>M/1, time dependent solutions have been found only in special cases and involve most often double transforms which provide very little insight into the behaviour of the queueing systems themselves. In inventory theory also There is not much results available giving the time dependent solution of the system size probabilities. Our emphasis is on explicit results free from all types of transforms and the method used may be of special interest to a wide variety of problems having regenerative structure.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

On slowdown and speedup of transient random walks in random environment

We consider one-dimensional random walks in random environment which are transient to the right. Our main interest is in the study of the sub-ballistic regime, where at time n the particle is typically at a distance of order O(n (kappa) ) from the origin, kappa is an element of (0, 1). We investigate the probabilities of moderate deviations from this behaviour. Specifically, we are interested in quenched and annealed probabilities of slowdown (at time n, the particle is at a distance of order O (n (nu 0)) from the origin, nu(0) is an element of (0, kappa)), and speedup (at time n, the particle is at a distance of order n (nu 1) from the origin , nu(1) is an element of (kappa, 1)), for the current location of the particle and for the hitting times. Also, we study probabilities of backtracking: at time n, the particle is located around (-n (nu) ), thus making an unusual excursion to the left. For the slowdown, our results are valid in the ballistic case as well.

Communication: Transient Anion States Of Phenol…(h₂o)n (n = 1, 2) Complexes: Search For Microsolvation Signatures.

We report on the shape resonance spectra of phenol-water clusters, as obtained from elastic electron scattering calculations. Our results, along with virtual orbital analysis, indicate that the well-known indirect mechanism for hydrogen elimination in the gas phase is significantly impacted on by microsolvation, due to the competition between vibronic couplings on the solute and solvent molecules. This fact suggests how relevant the solvation effects could be for the electron-driven damage of biomolecules and the biomass delignification [E. M. de Oliveira et al., Phys. Rev. A 86, 020701(R) (2012)]. We also discuss microsolvation signatures in the differential cross sections that could help to identify the solvated complexes and access the composition of gaseous admixtures of these species.

Toll-like Receptor 4 Activation Promotes Cardiac Arrhythmias By Decreasing The Transient Outward Potassium Current (ito) Through An Irf3-dependent And Myd88-independent Pathway.

Cardiac arrhythmias are one of the main causes of death worldwide. Several studies have shown that inflammation plays a key role in different cardiac diseases and Toll-like receptors (TLRs) seem to be involved in cardiac complications. In the present study, we investigated whether the activation of TLR4 induces cardiac electrical remodeling and arrhythmias, and the signaling pathway involved in these effects. Membrane potential was recorded in Wistar rat ventricle. Ca(2+) transients, as well as the L-type Ca(2+) current (ICaL) and the transient outward K(+) current (Ito), were recorded in isolated myocytes after 24 h exposure to the TLR4 agonist, lipopolysaccharide (LPS, 1 μg/ml). TLR4 stimulation in vitro promoted a cardiac electrical remodeling that leads to action potential prolongation associated with arrhythmic events, such as delayed afterdepolarization and triggered activity. After 24 h LPS incubation, Ito amplitude, as well as Kv4.3 and KChIP2 mRNA levels were reduced. The Ito decrease by LPS was prevented by inhibition of interferon regulatory factor 3 (IRF3), but not by inhibition of interleukin-1 receptor-associated kinase 4 (IRAK4) or nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB). Extrasystolic activity was present in 25% of the cells, but apart from that, Ca(2+) transients and ICaL were not affected by LPS; however, Na(+)/Ca(2+) exchanger (NCX) activity was apparently increased. We conclude that TLR4 activation decreased Ito, which increased AP duration via a MyD88-independent, IRF3-dependent pathway. The longer action potential, associated with enhanced Ca(2+) efflux via NCX, could explain the presence of arrhythmias in the LPS group.

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

Optical identification of the transient supersoft X-ray source RX J0527.8-6954, in the LMC

Context. Close binary supersoft X-ray sources (CBSS) are binary systems that contain a white dwarf with stable nuclear burning on its surface. These sources, first discovered in the Magellanic Clouds, have high accretion rates and near-Eddington luminosities (10(37)-10(38) erg s(-1)) with high temperatures (T = 2-7 x 10(5) K). Aims. The total number of known objects in the MC is still small and, in our galaxy, even smaller. We observed the field of the unidentified transient supersoft X-ray source RX J0527.8-6954 in order to identify its optical counterpart. Methods. The observation was made with the IFU-GMOS on the Gemini South telescope with the purpose of identifying stars with possible He II or Balmer emission or else of observing nebular extended jets or ionization cones, features that may be expected in CBSS. Results. The X-ray source is identified with a B5e V star that is associated with subarcsecond extended H alpha emission, possibly bipolar. Conclusions. If the primary star is a white dwarf, as suggested by the supersoft X-ray spectrum, the expected orbital period exceeds 21 h; therefore, we believe that the 9.4 h period found so far is not associated to this system.

Kinematic parameters and membership probabilities of open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue

Aims. We derive lists of proper-motions and kinematic membership probabilities for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the zone of the Bordeaux PM2000 proper motion catalogue (+ 11 degrees <= delta <= + 18 degrees). We test different parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions and select the most successful one. In the light of those results, we analyse some objects individually. Methods. We differenciate between cluster and field member stars, and assign membership probabilities, by applying a new and fully automated method based on both parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions, and genetic algorithm optimization heuristics associated with a derivative-based hill climbing algorithm for the likelihood optimization. Results. We present a catalogue comprising kinematic parameters and associated membership probability lists for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue region. We note that this is the first determination of proper motions for five open clusters. We confirm the non-existence of two kinematic populations in the region of 15 previously suspected non-existent objects.

Jensen inequalities for tunneling probabilities in complex systems

The Jensen theorem is used to derive inequalities for semiclassical tunneling probabilities for systems involving several degrees of freedom. These Jensen inequalities are used to discuss several aspects of sub-barrier heavy-ion fusion reactions. The inequality hinges on general convexity properties of the tunneling coefficient calculated with the classical action in the classically forbidden region.

Collision probabilities in the rarefaction fan of asymmetric exclusion processes

We consider the one-dimensional asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) in which particles jump to the right at rate p is an element of (1/2, 1.] and to the left at rate 1 - p, interacting by exclusion. In the initial state there is a finite region such that to the left of this region all sites are occupied and to the right of it all sites are empty. Under this initial state, the hydrodynamical limit of the process converges to the rarefaction fan of the associated Burgers equation. In particular suppose that the initial state has first-class particles to the left of the origin, second-class particles at sites 0 and I, and holes to the right of site I. We show that the probability that the two second-class particles eventually collide is (1 + p)/(3p), where a collision occurs when one of the particles attempts to jump over the other. This also corresponds to the probability that two ASEP processes. started from appropriate initial states and coupled using the so-called ""basic coupling,"" eventually reach the same state. We give various other results about the behaviour of second-class particles in the ASEP. In the totally asymmetric case (p = 1) we explain a further representation in terms of a multi-type particle system, and also use the collision result to derive the probability of coexistence of both clusters in a two-type version of the corner growth model.

EVOLUTION AND LIFETIME OF TRANSIENT CLUMPS IN THE TURBULENT INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM

We study the evolution of dense clumps and provide an argument that the existence of the clumps is not limited by their crossing times. We claim that the lifetimes of the clumps are determined by turbulent motions on a larger scale, and we predict the correlation of clump lifetime with column density. We use numerical simulations to successfully test this relation. In addition, we study the morphological asymmetry and the magnetization of the clumps as functions of their masses.

Transient effects of stretching exercises on gait parameters of elderly women

This study aimed to analyse the effects of a single stretching exercise session on a number of gait parameters ill elderly participants in all attempt to determine whether these exercises can influence the risk of fall. Fifteen healthy women living in the community Volunteered to participate in the study. A kinematic gait analysis was performed immediately before and after a session of static stretching exercises applied oil hip flexor/extensor muscles. Results showed a significant influence of stretching exercises on a number of gait parameters, which have previously been proposed as fall predictors. Participants showed increased gait velocity, greater step length and reduced double Support time during stance after performing stretching exercises, suggesting improved stability and mobility. Changes around the pelvis (increased anterior-posterior tilt and rotation range of motion) resulting from the stretching exercises were suggested to influence the gait parameters (velocity, step length and double support time). Therefore, stretching exercises were shown to be a promising strategy to facilitate changes in gait parameters related to the risk of fall. Some other gait variables related to the risk of fall remained Unaltered (e.g., toe clearance). The stable pattern of segmental angular velocities was proposed to explain the stability of these unchanged gait variables. The results indicate that stretching exercises, performed oil a regular (daily) basis, result in gait adaptations which can be considered as indicative of reduced fall risk. Other Studies to determine whether regular stretching routines are an effective strategy to reduce the risk of fall are required. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Leak detection by inverse transient analysis in an experimental PVC pipe system

Leakage reduction in water supply systems and distribution networks has been an increasingly important issue in the water industry since leaks and ruptures result in major physical and economic losses. Hydraulic transient solvers can be used in the system operational diagnosis, namely for leak detection purposes, due to their capability to describe the dynamic behaviour of the systems and to provide substantial amounts of data. In this research work, the association of hydraulic transient analysis with an optimisation model, through inverse transient analysis (ITA), has been used for leak detection and its location in an experimental facility containing PVC pipes. Observed transient pressure data have been used for testing ITA. A key factor for the success of the leak detection technique used is the accurate calibration of the transient solver, namely adequate boundary conditions and the description of energy dissipation effects since PVC pipes are characterised by a viscoelastic mechanical response. Results have shown that leaks were located with an accuracy between 4-15% of the total length of the pipeline, depending on the discretisation of the system model.

A transient three-dimensional heat transfer model of the human body

The objective of this work is to develop an improved model of the human thermal system. The features included are important to solve real problems: 3D heat conduction, the use of elliptical cylinders to adequately approximate body geometry, the careful representation of tissues and important organs, and the flexibility of the computational implementation. Focus is on the passive system, which is composed by 15 cylindrical elements and it includes heat transfer between large arteries and veins. The results of thermal neutrality and transient simulations are in excellent agreement with experimental data, indicating that the model represents adequately the behavior of the human thermal system. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.