992 resultados para Trajectory Modelling


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PI kinematic trajectory model is used to investigate potential pathways of dust transport from Australia to New Zealand. Historically, these have been assumed to follow rather direct west-east trajectories spanning 2 to 3 days, often resulting in red snow events in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. However, results from the present study which examined the route taken by air parcels originating in southern Australia during dust storms on 24 and 25 May 1994, indicate that trans-Tasman dust transport trajectories are more diverse than previously thought, and display considerable variation during single events. These mon divergent pathways tie in more closely with aeolian dust sedimentation patterns identified by ocean coring in the Tasman Sea, and may account for the deposition of Australian dust on sub-Antarctic islands located well south of the Australian continent. Copyright 2000 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

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The Chiado’s fire that affected the city centre of Lisbon (Portugal) occurred on 25th August 1988 and had a significant human and environmental impact. This fire was considered the most significant hazard to have occurred in Lisbon city centre after the major earthquake of 1755. A clear signature of this fire is found in the atmospheric electric field data recorded at Portela meteorological station about 8 km NE from the site where the fire started at Chiado. Measurements were made using a Benndorf electrograph with a probe at 1 m height. The atmospheric electric field reached 510 V/m when the wind direction was coming from SW to NE, favourable to the transport of the smoke plume from Chiado to Portela. Such observations agree with predictions using Hysplit air mass trajectory modelling and have been used to estimate the smoke concentration to be ~0.4 mg/m3. It is demonstrated that atmospheric electric field measurements were therefore extremely sensitive to Chiado’s fire. This result is of particular current interest in using networks of atmospheric electric field sensors to complement existing optical and meteorological observations for fire monitoring.

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The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.

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Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

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The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.

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Our surrounding landscape is in a constantly dynamic state, but recently the rate of changes and their effects on the environment have considerably increased. In terms of the impact on nature, this development has not been entirely positive, but has rather caused a decline in valuable species, habitats, and general biodiversity. Regardless of recognizing the problem and its high importance, plans and actions of how to stop the detrimental development are largely lacking. This partly originates from a lack of genuine will, but is also due to difficulties in detecting many valuable landscape components and their consequent neglect. To support knowledge extraction, various digital environmental data sources may be of substantial help, but only if all the relevant background factors are known and the data is processed in a suitable way. This dissertation concentrates on detecting ecologically valuable landscape components by using geospatial data sources, and applies this knowledge to support spatial planning and management activities. In other words, the focus is on observing regionally valuable species, habitats, and biotopes with GIS and remote sensing data, using suitable methods for their analysis. Primary emphasis is given to the hemiboreal vegetation zone and the drastic decline in its semi-natural grasslands, which were created by a long trajectory of traditional grazing and management activities. However, the applied perspective is largely methodological, and allows for the application of the obtained results in various contexts. Models based on statistical dependencies and correlations of multiple variables, which are able to extract desired properties from a large mass of initial data, are emphasized in the dissertation. In addition, the papers included combine several data sets from different sources and dates together, with the aim of detecting a wider range of environmental characteristics, as well as pointing out their temporal dynamics. The results of the dissertation emphasise the multidimensionality and dynamics of landscapes, which need to be understood in order to be able to recognise their ecologically valuable components. This not only requires knowledge about the emergence of these components and an understanding of the used data, but also the need to focus the observations on minute details that are able to indicate the existence of fragmented and partly overlapping landscape targets. In addition, this pinpoints the fact that most of the existing classifications are too generalised as such to provide all the required details, but they can be utilized at various steps along a longer processing chain. The dissertation also emphases the importance of landscape history as an important factor, which both creates and preserves ecological values, and which sets an essential standpoint for understanding the present landscape characteristics. The obtained results are significant both in terms of preserving semi-natural grasslands, as well as general methodological development, giving support to science-based framework in order to evaluate ecological values and guide spatial planning.

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The aim of this thesis is to narrow the gap between two different control techniques: the continuous control and the discrete event control techniques DES. This gap can be reduced by the study of Hybrid systems, and by interpreting as Hybrid systems the majority of large-scale systems. In particular, when looking deeply into a process, it is often possible to identify interaction between discrete and continuous signals. Hybrid systems are systems that have both continuous, and discrete signals. Continuous signals are generally supposed continuous and differentiable in time, since discrete signals are neither continuous nor differentiable in time due to their abrupt changes in time. Continuous signals often represent the measure of natural physical magnitudes such as temperature, pressure etc. The discrete signals are normally artificial signals, operated by human artefacts as current, voltage, light etc. Typical processes modelled as Hybrid systems are production systems, chemical process, or continuos production when time and continuous measures interacts with the transport, and stock inventory system. Complex systems as manufacturing lines are hybrid in a global sense. They can be decomposed into several subsystems, and their links. Another motivation for the study of Hybrid systems is the tools developed by other research domains. These tools benefit from the use of temporal logic for the analysis of several properties of Hybrid systems model, and use it to design systems and controllers, which satisfies physical or imposed restrictions. This thesis is focused in particular types of systems with discrete and continuous signals in interaction. That can be modelled hard non-linealities, such as hysteresis, jumps in the state, limit cycles, etc. and their possible non-deterministic future behaviour expressed by an interpretable model description. The Hybrid systems treated in this work are systems with several discrete states, always less than thirty states (it can arrive to NP hard problem), and continuous dynamics evolving with expression: with Ki ¡ Rn constant vectors or matrices for X components vector. In several states the continuous evolution can be several of them Ki = 0. In this formulation, the mathematics can express Time invariant linear system. By the use of this expression for a local part, the combination of several local linear models is possible to represent non-linear systems. And with the interaction with discrete events of the system the model can compose non-linear Hybrid systems. Especially multistage processes with high continuous dynamics are well represented by the proposed methodology. Sate vectors with more than two components, as third order models or higher is well approximated by the proposed approximation. Flexible belt transmission, chemical reactions with initial start-up and mobile robots with important friction are several physical systems, which profits from the benefits of proposed methodology (accuracy). The motivation of this thesis is to obtain a solution that can control and drive the Hybrid systems from the origin or starting point to the goal. How to obtain this solution, and which is the best solution in terms of one cost function subject to the physical restrictions and control actions is analysed. Hybrid systems that have several possible states, different ways to drive the system to the goal and different continuous control signals are problems that motivate this research. The requirements of the system on which we work is: a model that can represent the behaviour of the non-linear systems, and that possibilities the prediction of possible future behaviour for the model, in order to apply an supervisor which decides the optimal and secure action to drive the system toward the goal. Specific problems can be determined by the use of this kind of hybrid models are: - The unity of order. - Control the system along a reachable path. - Control the system in a safe path. - Optimise the cost function. - Modularity of control The proposed model solves the specified problems in the switching models problem, the initial condition calculus and the unity of the order models. Continuous and discrete phenomena are represented in Linear hybrid models, defined with defined eighth-tuple parameters to model different types of hybrid phenomena. Applying a transformation over the state vector : for LTI system we obtain from a two-dimensional SS a single parameter, alpha, which still maintains the dynamical information. Combining this parameter with the system output, a complete description of the system is obtained in a form of a graph in polar representation. Using Tagaki-Sugeno type III is a fuzzy model which include linear time invariant LTI models for each local model, the fuzzyfication of different LTI local model gives as a result a non-linear time invariant model. In our case the output and the alpha measure govern the membership function. Hybrid systems control is a huge task, the processes need to be guided from the Starting point to the desired End point, passing a through of different specific states and points in the trajectory. The system can be structured in different levels of abstraction and the control in three layers for the Hybrid systems from planning the process to produce the actions, these are the planning, the process and control layer. In this case the algorithms will be applied to robotics ¡V a domain where improvements are well accepted ¡V it is expected to find a simple repetitive processes for which the extra effort in complexity can be compensated by some cost reductions. It may be also interesting to implement some control optimisation to processes such as fuel injection, DC-DC converters etc. In order to apply the RW theory of discrete event systems on a Hybrid system, we must abstract the continuous signals and to project the events generated for these signals, to obtain new sets of observable and controllable events. Ramadge & Wonham¡¦s theory along with the TCT software give a Controllable Sublanguage of the legal language generated for a Discrete Event System (DES). Continuous abstraction transforms predicates over continuous variables into controllable or uncontrollable events, and modifies the set of uncontrollable, controllable observable and unobservable events. Continuous signals produce into the system virtual events, when this crosses the bound limits. If this event is deterministic, they can be projected. It is necessary to determine the controllability of this event, in order to assign this to the corresponding set, , controllable, uncontrollable, observable and unobservable set of events. Find optimal trajectories in order to minimise some cost function is the goal of the modelling procedure. Mathematical model for the system allows the user to apply mathematical techniques over this expression. These possibilities are, to minimise a specific cost function, to obtain optimal controllers and to approximate a specific trajectory. The combination of the Dynamic Programming with Bellman Principle of optimality, give us the procedure to solve the minimum time trajectory for Hybrid systems. The problem is greater when there exists interaction between adjacent states. In Hybrid systems the problem is to determine the partial set points to be applied at the local models. Optimal controller can be implemented in each local model in order to assure the minimisation of the local costs. The solution of this problem needs to give us the trajectory to follow the system. Trajectory marked by a set of set points to force the system to passing over them. Several ways are possible to drive the system from the Starting point Xi to the End point Xf. Different ways are interesting in: dynamic sense, minimum states, approximation at set points, etc. These ways need to be safe and viable and RchW. And only one of them must to be applied, normally the best, which minimises the proposed cost function. A Reachable Way, this means the controllable way and safe, will be evaluated in order to obtain which one minimises the cost function. Contribution of this work is a complete framework to work with the majority Hybrid systems, the procedures to model, control and supervise are defined and explained and its use is demonstrated. Also explained is the procedure to model the systems to be analysed for automatic verification. Great improvements were obtained by using this methodology in comparison to using other piecewise linear approximations. It is demonstrated in particular cases this methodology can provide best approximation. The most important contribution of this work, is the Alpha approximation for non-linear systems with high dynamics While this kind of process is not typical, but in this case the Alpha approximation is the best linear approximation to use, and give a compact representation.

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We have estimated the speed and direction of propagation of a number of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) using single-spacecraft data from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) wide-field cameras. In general, these values are in good agreement with those predicted by Thernisien, Vourlidas, and Howard in Solar Phys. 256, 111 -aEuro parts per thousand 130 (2009) using a forward modelling method to fit CMEs imaged by the STEREO COR2 coronagraphs. The directions of the CMEs predicted by both techniques are in good agreement despite the fact that many of the CMEs under study travel in directions that cause them to fade rapidly in the HI images. The velocities estimated from both techniques are in general agreement although there are some interesting differences that may provide evidence for the influence of the ambient solar wind on the speed of CMEs. The majority of CMEs with a velocity estimated to be below 400 km s(-1) in the COR2 field of view have higher estimated velocities in the HI field of view, while, conversely, those with COR2 velocities estimated to be above 400 km s(-1) have lower estimated HI velocities. We interpret this as evidence for the deceleration of fast CMEs and the acceleration of slower CMEs by interaction with the ambient solar wind beyond the COR2 field of view. We also show that the uncertainties in our derived parameters are influenced by the range of elongations over which each CME can be tracked. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the predicted arrival time of a CME at 1 Astronomical Unit (AU) to within six hours, the CME needs to be tracked out to at least 30 degrees elongation. This is in good agreement with predictions of the accuracy of our technique based on Monte Carlo simulations.

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This work presents and discusses the main topics involved on the design of a mobile robot system and focus on the control and navigation systems for autonomous mobile robots. Introduces the main aspects of the Robot design, which is a holistic vision about all the steps of the development process of an autonomous mobile robot; discusses the problems addressed to the conceptualization of the mobile robot physical structure and its relation to the world. Presents the dynamic and control analysis for navigation robots with kinematic and dynamic model and, for final, presents applications for a robotic platform of Automation, Simulation, Control and Supervision of Mobile Robots Navigation, with studies of dynamic and kinematic modelling, control algorithms, mechanisms for mapping and localization, trajectory planning and the platform simulator. © 2012 Praise Worthy Prize S.r.l. - All rights reserved.

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An autonomous energy source within a human body is of key importance in the development of medical implants. This work deals with the modelling and the validation of an energy harvesting device which converts the myocardial contractions into electrical energy. The mechanism consists of a clockwork from a commercially available wrist watch. We developed a physical model which is able to predict the total amount of energy generated when applying an external excitation. For the validation of the model, a custom-made hexapod robot was used to accelerate the harvesting device along a given trajectory. We applied forward kinematics to determine the actual motion experienced by the harvesting device. The motion provides translational as well as rotational motion information for accurate simulations in three-dimensional space. The physical model could be successfully validated.

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This paper introduces a new approach for predicting people displacement by means of movementsurfaces. These surfaces can allow the simulation of a person?s movement through the use of semanticmovement concepts such as those making up the environment, the people who are moving, eventsthat describe a human activity, and time of occurrences. In order to represent this movement we havetransformed the trajectory of a person or group of persons into a raindrop path over a surface. As araindrop flows over a surface looking for the maximum slopes, people flow over the landscapelooking for the maximum utility. The movement surfaces are the response to a chained succession of events describing the way a person moves from one destination to another passing through the mostaffine trajectory to his interest. The three construction phases of this modelling approach (exploration,reasoning and prediction) are presented in this paper. The model was implemented in Protégé and aJava application was developed to generate the movement surface based on a recreational scenario.The results had shown the opportunity to apply our approach to optimise the accessibility of recreational areas according to the preferences of the users of that location.

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This paper presents the development of the robotic multi-agent system SMART. In this system, the agent concept is applied to both hardware and software entities. Hardware agents are robots, with three and four legs, and an IP-camera that takes images of the scene where the cooperative task is carried out. Hardware agents strongly cooperate with software agents. These latter agents can be classified into image processing, communications, task management and decision making, planning and trajectory generation agents. To model, control and evaluate the performance of cooperative tasks among agents, a kind of PetriNet, called Work-Flow Petri Net, is used. Experimental results shows the good performance of the system.

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A formalism for modelling the dynamics of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) using methods from statistical mechanics, originally due to Prugel-Bennett and Shapiro, is reviewed, generalized and improved upon. This formalism can be used to predict the averaged trajectory of macroscopic statistics describing the GA's population. These macroscopics are chosen to average well between runs, so that fluctuations from mean behaviour can often be neglected. Where necessary, non-trivial terms are determined by assuming maximum entropy with constraints on known macroscopics. Problems of realistic size are described in compact form and finite population effects are included, often proving to be of fundamental importance. The macroscopics used here are cumulants of an appropriate quantity within the population and the mean correlation (Hamming distance) within the population. Including the correlation as an explicit macroscopic provides a significant improvement over the original formulation. The formalism is applied to a number of simple optimization problems in order to determine its predictive power and to gain insight into GA dynamics. Problems which are most amenable to analysis come from the class where alleles within the genotype contribute additively to the phenotype. This class can be treated with some generality, including problems with inhomogeneous contributions from each site, non-linear or noisy fitness measures, simple diploid representations and temporally varying fitness. The results can also be applied to a simple learning problem, generalization in a binary perceptron, and a limit is identified for which the optimal training batch size can be determined for this problem. The theory is compared to averaged results from a real GA in each case, showing excellent agreement if the maximum entropy principle holds. Some situations where this approximation brakes down are identified. In order to fully test the formalism, an attempt is made on the strong sc np-hard problem of storing random patterns in a binary perceptron. Here, the relationship between the genotype and phenotype (training error) is strongly non-linear. Mutation is modelled under the assumption that perceptron configurations are typical of perceptrons with a given training error. Unfortunately, this assumption does not provide a good approximation in general. It is conjectured that perceptron configurations would have to be constrained by other statistics in order to accurately model mutation for this problem. Issues arising from this study are discussed in conclusion and some possible areas of further research are outlined.

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The pyrolysis of a freely moving cellulosic particle inside a 41.7mgs -1 source continuously fed fluid bed reactor subjected to convective heat transfer is modelled. The Lagrangian approach is adopted for the particle tracking inside the reactor, while the flow of the inert gas is treated with the standard Eulerian method for gases. The model incorporates the thermal degradation of cellulose to char with simultaneous evolution of gases and vapours from discrete cellulosic particles. The reaction kinetics is represented according to the Broido–Shafizadeh scheme. The convective heat transfer to the surface of the particle is solved by two means, namely the Ranz–Marshall correlation and the limit case of infinitely fast external heat transfer rates. The results from both approaches are compared and discussed. The effect of the different heat transfer rates on the discrete phase trajectory is also considered.

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The scope of this paper is to reflect on the theoretical construction in the constitution of the sociology of health, still called medical sociology in some countries. Two main ideas constitute the basis for this: interdisciplinarity and the degree of articulation in the fields of medicine and sociology. We sought to establish a dialogue with some dimensions - macro/micro, structure/action - that constitute the basis for understanding medicine/health in relation to the social/sociological dimension. The main aspects of these dimensions are initially presented. Straus' two medical sociologies and the theory/application impasses are then addressed, as well as the dilemmas of the sociology of medicine in the 1960s and 1970s. From these analyses the theoretical production before 1970 is placed as a counterpoint. Lastly, the sociology of health is seen in the general context of sociology, which underwent a fragmentation process from 1970 with effects in all subfields of the social sciences. This process involves a rethinking of the theoretical issues in a broadened spectrum of possibilities. The 1980s are highlighted when theoretical issues in the sociology of health are reinvigorated and the issue of interdisciplinarity is once again addressed.