Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

Low expectations, low demand : when should the government intervene?

Este trabalho estuda o impacto de diferentes políticas que procuram mitigar falhas de coordenação em um ambiente macroeconômico. Abordamos questões relativas ao timing dos estímulos econômicos. Quando o governo deveria começar a incentivar a economia? Deveria gastar mais para prevenir crises ou para tirar a economia da recessão quando os fundamentos estão melhorando? Como o estímulo deve alterar a complementaridade estratégica? Para responder a estas perguntas, construímos um modelo macroeconômico dinâmico com concorrência monopolística e decisões de investimento sequenciais. Aplicando resultados da literatura teórica de jogos dinâmicos com fricções, selecionamos um único equilíbrio neste modelo, nos dando um instrumental tratável para a análise de políticas. Nossos resultados sugerem que o governo não deveria viesar incentivos nem para a prevenção de crises nem para resgatar a economia quando esta já está em crise.

Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents

We study a dynamic model of coordination with timing frictions and payoff heterogeneity. There is a unique equilibrium, characterized by thresholds that determine the choices of each type of agent. We characterize equilibrium for the limiting cases of vanishing timing frictions and vanishing shocks to fundamentals. A lot of conformity emerges: despite payoff heterogeneity, agents’ equilibrium thresholds partially coincide as long as there exists a set of beliefs that would make this coincidence possible – though they never fully coincide. In case of vanishing frictions, the economy behaves almost as if all agents were equal to an average type. Conformity is not inefficient. The efficient solution would have agents following others even more often and giving less importance to the fundamental

Essays on coordination problems in economics

No estudo da economia, há diversas situações em que a propensão de um indivíduo a tomar determinada ação é crescente na quantidade de outras pessoas que este indivíduo acredita que tomarão a mesma ação. Esse tipo de complementaridade estratégica geralmente leva à existência de múltiplos equilíbrios. Além disso, o resultado atingido pelas decisões decentralizadas dos agentes pode ser ineficiente, deixando espaço para intervenções de política econômica. Esta tese estuda diferentes ambientes em que a coordenação entre indivíduos é importante. O primeiro capítulo analisa como a manipulação de informação e a divulgação de informação afetam a coordenação entre investidores e o bem-estar em um modelo de corridas bancárias. No modelo, há uma autoridade reguladora que não pode se comprometer a revelar a verdadeira situação do setor bancário. O regulador observa informações idiossincráticas dos bancos (através de um stress test, por exemplo) e escolhe se revela essa informação para o público ou se divulga somente um relatório agregado sobre a saúde do sistema financeiro como um todo. O relatório agregado pode ser distorcido a um custo – um custo mais elevado significa maior credibilidade do regulador. Os investidores estão cientes dos incentivos do regulador a esconder más notícias do mercado, mas a manipulação de informação pode, ainda assim, ser efetiva. Se a credibilidade do regulador não for muito baixa, a política de divulgação de informação é estado-contingente, e existe sempre um conjunto de estados em que há manipulação de informação em equilíbrio. Se a credibilidade for suficientemente baixa, porém, o regulador opta por transparência total dos resultados banco-específicos, caso em que somente os bancos mais sólidos sobrevivem. Uma política de opacidade levaria a uma crise bancária sistêmica, independentemente do estado. O nível de credibilidade que maximiza o bem-estar agregado do ponto de vista ex ante é interior. O segundo e o terceiro capítulos estudam problemas de coordenação dinâmicos. O segundo capítulo analisa o bem-estar em um ambiente em que agentes recebem oportunidades aleatórias para migrar entre duas redes. Os resultados mostram que sempre que a rede de pior qualidade (intrínseca) prevalece, isto é eficiente. Na verdade, um planejador central estaria ainda mais inclinado a escolher a rede de pior qualidade. Em equilíbrio, pode haver mudanças ineficientes que ampliem a rede de qualidade superior. Quando indivíduos escolhem entre dois padrões ou redes com níveis de qualidade diferentes, se todos os indivíduos fizessem escolhas simultâneas, a solução eficiente seria que todos adotassem a rede de melhor qualidade. No entanto, quando há fricções e os agentes tomam decisões escalonadas, a solução eficiente difere ix do senso comum. O terceiro capítulo analisa um problema de coordenação dinâmico com decisões escalonadas em que os agentes são heterogêneos ex ante. No modelo, existe um único equilíbrio, caracterizado por thresholds que determinam as escolhas para cada tipo de agente. Apesar da heterogeneidade nos payoffs, há bastante conformidade nas ações individuais em equilíbrio. Os thresholds de diferentes tipos de agentes coincidem parcialmente contanto que exista um conjunto de crenças arbitrário que justifique esta conformidade. No entanto, as estratégias de equilíbrio de diferentes tipos nunca coincidem totalmente. Além disso, a conformidade não é ineficiente. A solução eficiente apresentaria estratégias ainda mais similares para tipos distintos em comparação com o equilíbrio decentralizado.

Syllable-timing in Brazilian Portuguese: uma crítica a Roy Major

This paper reintroduces the discussion about stress-timing in Brazilian Portuguese (BP). It begins by surveying some phonetic and phonological issues raised by the syllable- vs stress-timed dichotomy which culminated with the emergence of the p-center notion. Strict considerations of timing of V-V units and stress groups are taken into account to analyze the long term coupling of two basic oscillators (vowel and stress flow). This coupling allows a two-parameter characterization of language rhythms (coupling strength and speech rate) revealing that BP utterances present a high-degree of syllable-timing. A comparison with other languages, including European Portuguese, is also presented. The results analyzed indicate that Major's arguments for considering Portuguese (sic) as stress-timing are misleading.

Tempo de reação, tempo de movimento e aquisição de timing antecipatorio em idosos

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Timing and sequence of primary tooth eruption in children with cleft lip and palate

OBJECTIVE: To determine the timing and sequence of eruption of primary teeth in children with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted at the Hospital for Rehabilitation of Craniofacial Anomalies of the University of São Paulo, Bauru, SP, Brazil, with a sample of 395 children (128 girls and 267 boys) aged 0 to 48 months, with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate. RESULTS: Children with complete bilateral clefts presented a higher mean age of eruption of all primary teeth for both arches and both genders, compared to children without clefts. This difference was statistically signifcant for all teeth, except for the maxillary first molar. Mean age of eruption of most teeth was lower for girls compared to boys. The greatest delay was found for the maxillary lateral incisor, which was the eighth tooth of children with clefts of both genders. Analyzing by gender, the maxillary lateral incisor was the eighth tooth to erupt in girls and the last in boys. CONCLUSION: The results suggest an interference of the cleft on the timing and sequence of eruption of primary teeth.

Evaluation of timing and responses to physiotherapeutic treatment

In several treatment regimens, the recognition of chronobiology contributes to the therapeutic process through the effective use of temporization protocols. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between the tic treatment and the time of day when such treatment was performed, as well as the chronotype of orthopedic and rheumatologic patients in a clinical physiotherapy school. The population studied was treated in the morning and evening periods. The patients were divided into three groups of pathologies with similar treatments, which were as follows: syndrome of shoulder impact (n=33), knee artrosis (n=17), and lombalgia (n=23). At the end of ten treatment sessions, data concerning pain, percentage of subjective improvement, chronotype and age were compared. At the end of the study, it was observed that the time of day when treatment was performed influenced the results of individuals treated in the evenings but had no influence on the individuals treated in the morning. In addition, the evening schedule was the most well suited for intermediate individuals.

Cell Therapy Attenuates Cardiac Dysfunction Post Myocardial Infarction: Effect of Timing, Routes of Injection and a Fibrin Scaffold

Background: Cell therapy approaches for biologic cardiac repair hold great promises, although basic fundamental issues remain poorly understood. In the present study we examined the effects of timing and routes of administration of bone marrow cells (BMC) post-myocardial infarction (MI) and the efficacy of an injectable biopolymer scaffold to improve cardiac cell retention and function. Methodology/Principal Findings: (99m)Tc-labeled BMC (6x10(6) cells) were injected by 4 different routes in adult rats: intravenous (IV), left ventricular cavity (LV), left ventricular cavity with temporal aorta occlusion (LV(+)) to mimic coronary injection, and intramyocardial (IM). The injections were performed 1, 2, 3, or 7 days post-MI and cell retention was estimated by gamma-emission counting of the organs excised 24 hs after cell injection. IM injection improved cell retention and attenuated cardiac dysfunction, whereas IV, LV or LV* routes were somewhat inefficient (< 1%). Cardiac BMC retention was not influenced by timing except for the IM injection that showed greater cell retention at 7 (16%) vs. 1, 2 or 3 (average of 7%) days post-MI. Cardiac cell retention was further improved by an injectable fibrin scaffold at day 3 post-MI (17 vs. 7%), even though morphometric and function parameters evaluated 4 weeks later displayed similar improvements. Conclusions/Significance: These results show that cells injected post-MI display comparable tissue distribution profile regardless of the route of injection and that there is no time effect for cardiac cell accumulation for injections performed 1 to 3 days post-MI. As expected the IM injection is the most efficient for cardiac cell retention, it can be further improved by co-injection with a fibrin scaffold and it significantly attenuates cardiac dysfunction evaluated 4 weeks post myocardial infarction. These pharmacokinetic data obtained under similar experimental conditions are essential for further development of these novel approaches.

Tidal-amplitude rhythms of larval release: variable departure from presumed optimal timing among populations of the mottled shore crab

It is widely assumed that optimal timing of larval release is of major importance to offspring survival, but the extent to which environmental factors entrain synchronous reproductive rhythms in natural populations is not well known. We sampled the broods of ovigerous females of the common shore crab Pachygrapsus transversus at both sheltered and exposed rocky shores interspersed along a so-km coastline, during four different periods, to better assess inter-population differences of larval release timing and to test for the effect of wave action. Shore-specific patterns were consistent through time. Maximum release fell within 1 day around syzygies on all shores, which matched dates of maximum tidal amplitude. Within this very narrow range, populations at exposed shores anticipated hatching compared to those at sheltered areas, possibly due to mechanical stimulation by wave action. Average departures from syzygial release ranged consistently among shores from 2.4 to 3.3 days, but in this case we found no evidence for the effect of wave exposure. Therefore, processes varying at the scale of a few kilometres affect the precision of semilunar timing and may produce differences in the survival of recently hatched larvae. Understanding the underlying mechanisms causing departures from presumed optimal release timing is thus important for a more comprehensive evaluation of reproductive success of invertebrate populations.

Retention-favorable timing of propagule release in barnacles and periwinkles

Recent studies on the ecology of marine larvae suggest that retention near coastal areas and self-recruitment are probably much more common than previously thought. In light of this, the advective potential of pelagic stages can be partially determined by the timing of propagule release. We sampled the upper-shore levels of a subtropical coastline in southeastern Brazil to examine the temporal patterns of propagule release for the common barnacle Chthamalus bisinuatus and the periwinkle Nodilittorina lineolata. The release timing in both species was very consistent between sites a few kilometers apart. Barnacles released nauplii in a rhythmic pattern, mostly coinciding with neap tides, when the speed of tidal currents was lowest. There was no variation in propagule release in relation to diel or flood-ebb tidal cycles. Periwinkles released propagules in a very irregular pattern, which remarkably matched a time series of wave heights. Egg capsules were released during periods of rough seas, when onshore surface currents were expected to prevail. Eggs were released mostly during ebb tides, and there was no diel variation. Propagule release rhythms are usually viewed as a means to ensure fast offshore advection, thus avoiding presumed hazardous conditions for larvae. However, propagule release strategies in these upper-shore species would more likely contribute to the retention of offspring close to parental stocks.

Intercepting moving targets: does memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement affect movement timing?

This investigation aimed at assessing the extent to which memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement modulates temporal errors and movement timing of interceptive movements. We compared two groups practicing with certainty of future target velocity either in unchanged target velocity or in target velocity decrease. Following practice, both experimental groups were probed in the situations of unchanged target velocity and target velocity decrease either under the context of certainty or uncertainty about target velocity. Results from practice showed similar improvement of temporal accuracy between groups, revealing that target velocity decrease did not disturb temporal movement organization when fully predictable. Analysis of temporal errors in the probing trials indicated that both groups had higher timing accuracy in velocity decrease in comparison with unchanged velocity. Effect of practice was detected by increased temporal accuracy of the velocity decrease group in situations of decreased velocity; a trend consistent with the expected effect of practice was observed for temporal errors in the unchanged velocity group and in movement initiation at a descriptive level. An additional point of theoretical interest was the fast adaptation in both groups to a target velocity pattern different from that practiced. These points are discussed under the perspective of integration of vision and motor control by means of an internal forward model of external motion.

Timing and Dose of Statin Therapy Define Its Impact on Inflammatory and Endothelial Responses During Myocardial Infarction

Objective-Clinical trials of statins during myocardial infarction (MI) have differed in their therapeutic regimes and generated conflicting results. This study evaluated the role of the timing and potency of statin therapy on its potential mechanisms of benefit during MI. Methods and Results-ST-elevation MI patients (n = 125) were allocated into 5 groups: no statin; 20, 40, or 80 mg/day simvastatin starting at admission; or 80 mg/day simvastatin 48 hours after admission. After 7 days, all patients switched their treatment to 20 mg/day simvastatin for an additional 3 weeks and then underwent flow-mediated dilation in the brachial artery. As of the second day, C-reactive protein (CRP) differed between non-statin users (12.0 +/- 4.1 mg/L) and patients treated with 20 (8.5 +/- 4.0 mg/L), 40 (3.8 +/- 2.5 mg/L), and 80 mg/day (1.4 +/- 1.5 mg/L), and the daily differences remained significant until the seventh day (P < 0.0001). The higher the statin dose, the lower the elevation of interleukin-2 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha, the greater the reduction of 8-isoprostane and low-density lipoprotein(-), and the greater the increase in nitrate/nitrite levels during the first 5 days (P < 0.001). Later initiation of statin was less effective than its early introduction in relation to attenuation of CRP, interleukin-2, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, 8-isoprostane, and low-density lipoprotein(-), as well as in increase in nitrate/nitrite levels (P < 0.0001). At the 30th day, there was no longer a difference in lipid profile or CRP between groups; the flow-mediated dilation, however, was proportional to the initial statin dose and was higher for those who started the treatment early (P = 0.001). Conclusion-This study demonstrates that the timing and potency of statin treatment during MI are key elements for their main mechanisms of benefit.

Hitting a moving target: Perception and action in the timing of rapid interceptions

Different interceptive tasks and modes of interception (hitting or capturing) do not necessarily involve similar control processes. Control based on preprogramming of movement parameters is possible for actions with brief movement times but is now widely rejected; continuous perceptuomotor control models are preferred for all types of interception. The rejection of preprogrammed control and acceptance of continuous control is evaluated for the timing of rapidly executed, manual hitting actions. It is shown that a preprogrammed control model is capable of providing a convincing account of observed behavior patterns that avoids many of the arguments that have been raised against it. Prominent continuous perceptual control models are analyzed within a common framework and are shown to be interpretable as feedback control strategies. Although these models can explain observations of on-line adjustments to movement, they offer only post hoc explanations for observed behavior patterns in hitting tasks and are not directly supported by data. It is proposed that rapid manual hitting tasks make up a class of interceptions for which a preprogrammed strategy is adopted-a strategy that minimizes the role of visual feedback. Such a strategy is effective when the task demands a high degree of temporal accuracy.

Phylogeography of the cactophilic species Drosophila gouveai: demographic events and divergence timing in dry vegetation enclaves in eastern Brazil

Aim The aim of this study was to assess the causal mechanisms underlying populational subdivision in Drosophila gouveai, a cactophilic species associated with xeric vegetation enclaves in eastern Brazil. A secondary aim was to investigate the genetic effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on these environments. Location Dry vegetation enclaves within the limits of the Cerrado domain in eastern Brazil. Methods We determined the mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of 55 individuals (representing 12 populations) based on sequence data of a 483-bp fragment from the cytochrome c oxidase subunit II (COII) gene. Phylogenetic and coalescent analyses were used to test for the occurrence of demographic events and to infer the time of divergence amongst genetically independent groups. Results Our analyses revealed the existence of two divergent subclades (G1 and G2) plus an introgressed clade restricted to the southernmost range of D. gouveai. Subclades G1 and G2 displayed genetic footprints of range expansion and segregated geographical distributions in south-eastern and some central highland regions, east and west of the Parana River valley. Molecular dating indicated that the main demographic and diversification events occurred in the late to middle Pleistocene. Main conclusions The phylogeographical and genetic patterns observed for D. gouveai in this study are consistent with changes in the distribution of dry vegetation in eastern Brazil. All of the estimates obtained by molecular dating indicate that range expansion and isolation pre-dated the Last Glacial Maximum, occurring during the late to middle Pleistocene, and were probably triggered by climatic changes during the Pleistocene. The current patchy geographical distribution and population subdivision in D. gouveai is apparently closely linked to these past events.