Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene

The winter climate of Europe and the Mediterranean is dominated by the weather systems of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The behaviour of the storm tracks is highly variable, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic, and has a profound impact on the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean region. A deeper understanding of the storm tracks and the factors that drive them is therefore crucial for interpreting past changes in Mediterranean climate and the civilizations it has supported over the last 12 000 years (broadly the Holocene period). This paper presents a discussion of how changes in climate forcing (e.g. orbital variations, greenhouse gases, ice sheet cover) may have impacted on the ‘basic ingredients’ controlling the mid-latitude storm tracks over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean on intermillennial time scales. Idealized simulations using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) are used to explore the basic processes, while a series of timeslice simulations from a similar atmospheric GCM coupled to a thermodynamic slab ocean (HadSM3) are examined to identify the impact these drivers have on the storm track during the Holocene. The results suggest that the North Atlantic storm track has moved northward and strengthened with time since the Early to Mid-Holocene. In contrast, the Mediterranean storm track may have weakened over the same period. It is, however, emphasized that much remains still to be understood about the evolution of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks during the Holocene period.

Methodologies for the generation of design summer years for building energy simulation using UKCP09 probabilitic climate projections

Design summer years representing near-extreme hot summers have been used in the United Kingdom for the evaluation of thermal comfort and overheating risk. The years have been selected from measured weather data basically representative of an assumed stationary climate. Recent developments have made available ‘morphed’ equivalents of these years by shifting and stretching the measured variables using change factors produced by the UKCIP02 climate projections. The release of the latest, probabilistic, climate projections of UKCP09 together with the availability of a weather generator that can produce plausible daily or hourly sequences of weather variables has opened up the opportunity for generating new design summer years which can be used in risk-based decision-making. There are many possible methods for the production of design summer years from UKCP09 output: in this article, the original concept of the design summer year is largely retained, but a number of alternative methodologies for generating the years are explored. An alternative, more robust measure of warmth (weighted cooling degree hours) is also employed. It is demonstrated that the UKCP09 weather generator is capable of producing years for the baseline period, which are comparable with those in current use. Four methodologies for the generation of future years are described, and their output related to the future (deterministic) years that are currently available. It is concluded that, in general, years produced from the UKCP09 projections are warmer than those generated previously. Practical applications: The methodologies described in this article will facilitate designers who have access to the output of the UKCP09 weather generator (WG) to generate Design Summer Year hourly files tailored to their needs. The files produced will differ according to the methodology selected, in addition to location, emissions scenario and timeslice.

A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum

A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1a. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community.

Stable oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca ratios of planktonic foraminifera from the Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum

We measured oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios in the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white s.s.) and the thermocline dweller Pulleniatina obliquiloculata to investigate upper ocean spatial variability in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). We focused on three critical time intervals: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 18-21.5 ka), the early Holocene (8-9 ka), and the late Holocene (0-2 ka). Our records from 24 stations in the South China Sea, Timor Sea, Indonesian seas, and western Pacific indicate overall dry and cool conditions in the IPWP during the LGM with a low thermal gradient between surface and thermocline waters. During the early Holocene, sea surface temperatures increased by ~3°C over the entire region, indicating intensification of the IPWP. However, in the eastern Indian Ocean (Timor Sea), the thermocline gradually shoaled from the LGM to early Holocene, reflecting intensification of the subsurface Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Increased surface salinity in the South China Sea during the Holocene appears related to northward displacement of the monsoonal rain belt over the Asian continent together with enhanced influx of saltier Pacific surface water through the Luzon Strait and freshwater export through the Java Sea. Opening of the freshwater portal through the Java Sea in the early Holocene led to a change in the vertical structure of the ITF from surface- to thermocline-dominated flow and to substantial freshening of Timor Sea thermocline waters.

Hydrogen isotopic composition of sediment cores from a transect off western Africa

The hydrogen isotopic composition of plant leaf-wax n-alkanes (dDwax) is a novel proxy for estimating dD of past precipitation (dDp). However, vegetation life-form and relative humidity exert secondary effects on dDwax, preventing quantitative estimates of past dDp. Here, we present an approach for removing the effect of vegetation-type and relative humidity from dDwax and thus for directly estimating past dDp. We test this approach on modern day (late Holocene; 0-3 ka) sediments from a transect of 9 marine cores spanning 21°N-23°S off the western coast of Africa. We estimate vegetation type (C3 tree versus C4 grass) using d13C of leaf-wax n-alkanes and correct dDwax for vegetation-type with previously-derived apparent fractionation factors for each vegetation type. Late Holocene vegetation-corrected dDwax (dDvc) displays a good fit with modern-day dDp, suggesting that the effects of vegetation type and relative humidity have both been removed and thus that dDvc is a good estimate of dDp. We find that the magnitude of the effect of C3 tree - C4 grass changes on dDwax is small compared to dDp changes. We go on to estimate dDvc for the mid-Holocene (6-8 ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19-23 ka) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16-18.5 ka). In terms of past hydrological changes, our leaf-wax based estimates of dDp mostly reflect changes in wet season intensity, which is complementary to estimates of wet season length based on leaf-wax d13C.

Stable carbon isotope ratios of Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi of MIS 2 time slices

The interval of time represented by marine isotope stages 11 and 12 (~360-470 ka) contains what may be the most extreme glacial and interglacial climate conditions of the Late Pleistocene. It has been suggested that sea level rose by ~160 m at the termination of glacial stage 12. This is 30% greater than the sea level rise that followed the most recent glacial maximum. There have been few detailed studies of the unique conditions that existed during the stage 11-12 time period because of the lack of high-quality core material. This problem has been addressed by the collection of high deposition rate cores from sediment drifts in the western North Atlantic during Ocean Drilling Project Leg 172. Benthic foraminiferal d13C data from cores collected between ~4600 and 1800 m were used to reconstruct bathymetric gradients in deep and intermediate water properties for selected time slices during this glacial-interglacial cycle. During glacial stage 12, the deep western North Atlantic was filled by a water mass that was more nutrient-enriched than modern Antarctic Bottom Water. Above 2000 m, a more nutrient-depleted water mass existed during this glacial stage. Such an intermediate water mass has been described for more recent glacial periods and presumably forms in a more proximate region of the North Atlantic. Interglacial stage 11 water mass properties closely resemble those of the present-day western North Atlantic. A nutrient-depleted water mass (d13C of 0.75-1.0 per mil), similar to modern North Atlantic Deep Water existed between 3500 and 2000 m. This was underlain by a water mass with lower d13C values (<0.75 per mil) that probably was derived from a southern source. Using Leg 172 data, along with previously published results from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, we estimate a mean global d13C change of 0.95 per mil from stage 12 to stage 11. This is twice the whole ocean ?13C change reported for the transition from the last glacial maximum to the Holocene.

Globale räumlich-zeitliche Klimavariabilität im Holozän (GHOST) [Global Holocene Spatial and Temporal Climate Variability]

Verbindung mariner Paläotemperatur-Kurven mit dreidimensionaler, gekoppelter Atmosphäre-Ozean Modellierung [Integrating marine multiproxy temperature estimates and three-dimensional coupled atmosphere/ocean modelling] Das Projekt war ein Beitrag zur Untersuchung des Klimas des Holozäns. Es basierte auf zwei Standbeinen: Der Heranziehung von weltweit verfügbaren, unbearbeiteten, aktualisierten und neu zusammengestellten marinen multiproxy Temperaturrekonstruktionen einerseits und der Verwendung von gekoppelten Zirkulationsmodellen für Atmosphäre und Ozean andererseits. Das Modell arbeitete mit relativ geringer Auflösung und Rechenzeit und ist für transiente Simulationen des Paläoklimas angepaßt. Für eine möglichst große globale Abdeckung der Zeitserien von Klimaproxies wurden Sedimentdaten herangezogen, die eine geringe aber dennoch höchstmögliche zeitliche Auflösung im Bereich von 50 bis 200 Jahren besitzen. Sowohl Datenrekonstruktion als auch gekoppelte Klimamodellierung erzeugten dreidimensionale Datensätze, zwei räumliche Dimensionen auf der Erdoberfläche, sowie die Zeit als dritte Dimension. Raumzeitliche Muster wurden im Rahmen des Projektes untersucht. Die eingehende Analyse rekonstruierter wie der Modell-Daten sollte einerseits das Verständnis für Klimaänderungen verbessern, die in Proxydaten gefunden werden und andererseits eine Validierung der Klimavariabilität im Modell ermöglichen. Die Musteranalyse ergab Einblicke in die Mechanismen, die zur Heterogenität von Erwärmung und Abkühlung im Holozän beitragen. Die Weiterführung der Klimasimulationen des Holozäns in die Zukunft der nächsten Jahrhunderte diente einer besseren Abschätzung der zukünftigen Klimaänderung.

Age models, organic analyses and major-element analyses of sediment cores on a transect of the tropical African rainbelt

The distribution of rainfall in tropical Africa is controlled by the African rainbelt**1, which oscillates on a seasonal basis. The rainbelt has varied on centennial to millennial timescales along with changes in Northern Hemisphere high-latitude climate**2, 3, 4, 5, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation**6 and low-latitude insolation**7 over the past glacial-interglacial cycle. However, the overall dynamics of the African rainbelt remain poorly constrained and are not always consistent with a latitudinal migration**2, 4, 5, 6, as has been proposed for other regions**8, 9. Here we use terrestrially derived organic and sedimentary markers from marine sediment cores to reconstruct the distribution of vegetation, and hence rainfall, in tropical Africa during extreme climate states over the past 23,000 years. Our data indicate that rather than migrating latitudinally, the rainbelt contracted and expanded symmetrically in both hemispheres in response to changes in climate. During the Last Glacial Maximum and Heinrich Stadial 1, the rainbelt contracted relative to the late Holocene, which we attribute to a latitudinal compression of atmospheric circulation associated with lower global mean temperatures**10. Conversely, during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the rainbelt expanded across tropical Africa. In light of our findings, it is not clear whether the tropical rainbelt has migrated latitudinally on a global scale, as has been suggested**8,9.

Documentation of sediment cores

The presence of a complex bedform arrangement on the sea-floor of the continental shelf in the western Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, indicates a multi-temporal record of flow related to the activity of one or more ice streams in the past. Mapping and division of the bedforms into distinct landform assemblages reveals their time-transgressive history, which implies that bedforms can neither be considered part of a single down-flow continuum nor a direct proxy for palaeo-ice velocity, as suggested previously. A main control on the bedform imprint is the geology of the shelf, which is divided broadly between rough bedrock on the inner shelf, and smooth, dipping sedimentary strata on the mid-to-outer shelf. Inner shelf bedform variability is well preserved, revealing information about local, complex basal-ice conditions, meltwater flow, and ice dynamics over time. These details, which are not apparent at the scale of regional morphological studies, indicate that past ice streams flowed across the entire shelf, at times, and often had onset zones that lay within the interior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet today. In contrast, highly elongated subglacial bedforms on sedimentary strata of the middle to outer shelf represent a timeslice snapshot of the last activity of ice-stream flow, and may be a truer representation of fast palaeo-ice flow in these locations. A revised model for ice streams on the shelf captures complicated multi-temporal bedform patterns associated with an Antarctic palaeo-ice stream for the first time, and confirms a strong substrate control on this ice stream system that drained the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Late Quaternary.