A few what-ifs on using statistical analysis of stochastic simulation runs to extract timeliness properties

Modern real-time systems, with a more flexible and adaptive nature, demand approaches for timeliness evaluation based on probabilistic measures of meeting deadlines. In this context, simulation can emerge as an adequate solution to understand and analyze the timing behaviour of actual systems. However, care must be taken with the obtained outputs under the penalty of obtaining results with lack of credibility. Particularly important is to consider that we are more interested in values from the tail of a probability distribution (near worst-case probabilities), instead of deriving confidence on mean values. We approach this subject by considering the random nature of simulation output data. We will start by discussing well known approaches for estimating distributions out of simulation output, and the confidence which can be applied to its mean values. This is the basis for a discussion on the applicability of such approaches to derive confidence on the tail of distributions, where the worst-case is expected to be.

From simulation to statistical analysis: timeliness assessment of ethernet/IP-based distributed systems

A number of characteristics are boosting the eagerness of extending Ethernet to also cover factory-floor distributed real-time applications. Full-duplex links, non-blocking and priority-based switching, bandwidth availability, just to mention a few, are characteristics upon which that eagerness is building up. But, will Ethernet technologies really manage to replace traditional Fieldbus networks? Ethernet technology, by itself, does not include features above the lower layers of the OSI communication model. In the past few years, it is particularly significant the considerable amount of work that has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies. It happens, however, that the majority of those works are restricted to the analysis of sub-sets of the overall computing and communication system, thus without addressing timeliness at a holistic level. To this end, we are addressing a few inter-linked research topics with the purpose of setting a framework for the development of tools suitable to extract temporal properties of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Ethernet-based factory-floor distributed systems. This framework is being applied to a specific COTS technology, Ethernet/IP. In this paper, we reason about the modelling and simulation of Ethernet/IP-based systems, and on the use of statistical analysis techniques to provide usable results. Discrete event simulation models of a distributed system can be a powerful tool for the timeliness evaluation of the overall system, but particular care must be taken with the results provided by traditional statistical analysis techniques.

INDEPTH: timeliness assessment of ethernet/IP-based systems

The continuous improvement of Ethernet technologies is boosting the eagerness of extending their use to cover factory-floor distributed real time applications. Indeed, it is remarkable the considerable amount of research work that has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies in the past few years. It happens, however, that the majority of those works are restricted to the analysis of sub-sets of the overall computing and communication system, thus without addressing timeliness in a holistic fashion. To this end, we address an approach, based on simulation, aiming at extracting temporal properties of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) Ethernet-based factory-floor distributed systems. This framework is applied to a specific COTS technology, Ethernet/IP. We reason about the modeling and simulation of Ethernet/IP-based systems, and on the use of statistical analysis techniques to provide useful results on timeliness. The approach is part of a wider framework related to the research project INDEPTH NDustrial-Ethernet ProTocols under Holistic analysis.

Timeliness in COTS factory-floor distributed systems: What role for simulation?

In the past few years, a significant amount of work has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies. However, none of these address the problem of timeliness evaluation at a holistic level. This paper describes a research framework embracing this objective. It is advocated that, simulation models can be a powerful tool, not only for timeliness evaluation, but also to enable the introduction of less pessimistic assumptions in an analytical response time approach, which, most often, are afflicted with simplifications leading to pessimistic assumptions and, therefore, delusive results. To this end, we address a few inter-linked research topics with the purpose of setting a framework for developing tools suitable to extract temporal properties of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) factory-floor communication systems.

Investigation Into the Timeliness of the Death Notification to the Surviving Spouse of a Motor Vehicle Accident Victim, 2005

Report: #05-02 Kirke C. Quinn, Attorney for Jo Anne Holland, first contacted the Ombudsman by letter dated January 2, 2004. Quinn also addressed his letter to the Governor’s Office, Iowa State Patrol (ISP), and Iowa Department of Public Safety (DPS). Quinn characterized his letter as a complaint against ISP regarding “the method and manner of reporting the death of Ross Holland to his surviving spouse.” According to Quinn, Mrs. Holland “went through hours of misery as a result of the patrol’s inattention to a tragic situation.” On January 7, 2004, the Ombudsman asked ISP Major Gary Hoskins, Supervisor of Field Operations, how ISP and DPS intended to respond to Mr. Quinn’s letter. Major Hoskins stated he would refer Quinn’s letter of complaint to DPS’ Professional Standards Bureau (PSB) for investigation and response. After speaking with Major Hoskins, the Ombudsman told Mr. Quinn that DPS would do an internal investigation and if he were not satisfied with the results he could contact the Ombudsman again. On March 29, 2004, Mr. Quinn contacted the Ombudsman and stated he was not satisfied with DPS’ response. Quinn stated he would send a copy of the response to the Ombudsman, along with a letter stating his outstanding issues and concerns. In his letter to the Ombudsman, dated May 5, Quinn simply stated: “Please find enclosed [a] copy of the letter received from the Department of Public Safety. We think this is an absolute outrage. We welcome your input.”

Predicting the annual performance of UK real estate: timeliness versus coverage

The IPD Annual Index is the largest and most comprehensive Real Estate market index available in the UK Such coverage however inevitably leads to delays in publication. In contrast there are a number of quarterly and monthly indices which are published within days of the year end but which lack the coverage in terms of size and numbers of properties. This paper analyses these smaller but more timely indices to see whether such indices can be used to predict the performance of the IPD Annual Index. Using a number of measures of forecasting accuracy it is shown that the smaller indices provide unbiased and efficient predictions of the IPD Annual Index. Such indices also significantly outperform a naive no-change model. Although no one index performs significantly better than the others. The more timely indices however do not perfectly track the IPD Annual Index. As a result any short run predictions of performance will be subject to a degree of error. Nevertheless the more timely indices, although lacking authoritative coverage, provide a valuable service to investors giving good estimates of Real Estates performance well before the publication of the IPD Annual Index.

The Timeliness and Cost-Effectiveness of the Local and Regional Procurement of Food Aid

Local and regional procurement (LRP) of food aid is often claimed to lead to quicker and more cost-effective response. We generate timeliness and cost-effectiveness estimates by comparing US-funded LRP activities in nine countries against in-kind, transoceanic food aid shipments from the US to the same countries during the same timeframe. Procuring food locally or distributing cash or vouchers results in a time savings of nearly 14 weeks, a 62 percent gain. Cost-effectiveness varies significantly by commodity type. Procuring grains locally saved over 50 percent, on average, while local procurement of processed commodities was not always cost-effective. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Timeliness of reporting to APORS.

At head of title: Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Reporting System.

Problems affecting the accuracy and timeliness of employment service reporting systems : report to the chairman, Committee on Education and Labor, House of Representatives /

"April 28, 1983."

The impact of board independence and ownership structure on the timeliness of corporate internet reporting of Irish-listed companies

Purpose – This study seeks to provide valuable new insight into the timeliness of corporate internet reporting (TCIR) by a sample of Irish-listed companies. Design/methodology/approach – The authors apply an updated version of Abdelsalam et al. TCIR index to assess the timeliness of corporate internet reporting. The index encompasses 13 criteria that are used to measure the TCIR for a sample of Irish-listed companies. In addition, the authors assess the timeliness of posting companies’ annual and interim reports to their web sites. Furthermore, the study examines the influence of board independence and ownership structure on the TCIR behaviour. Board composition is measured by the percentage of independent directors, chairman’s dual role and average tenure of directors. Ownership structure is represented by managerial ownership and blockholder ownership. Findings – It is found that Irish-listed companies, on average, satisfy only 46 per cent of the timeliness criteria assessed by the timeliness index. After controlling for size, audit fees and firm performance, evidence that TCIR is positively associated with board of director’s independence and chief executive officer (CEO) ownership is provided. Furthermore, it is found that large companies are faster in posting their annual reports to their web sites. The findings suggest that board composition and ownership structure influence a firm’s TCIR behaviour, presumably in response to the information asymmetry between management and investors and the resulting agency costs. Practical implications – The findings highlight the need for improvement in TCIR by Irish-listed companies in many areas, especially in regard to the regular updates of information provided on their web sites. Originality/value – This study represents one of the first comprehensive examinations of the important dimension of the TCIR in Irish-listed companies.