Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models

We discuss a general approach to dynamic sparsity modeling in multivariate time series analysis. Time-varying parameters are linked to latent processes that are thresholded to induce zero values adaptively, providing natural mechanisms for dynamic variable inclusion/selection. We discuss Bayesian model specification, analysis and prediction in dynamic regressions, time-varying vector autoregressions, and multivariate volatility models using latent thresholding. Application to a topical macroeconomic time series problem illustrates some of the benefits of the approach in terms of statistical and economic interpretations as well as improved predictions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Optimal Receive Antenna Selection in Time-Varying Fading Channels with Practical Training Constraints

Hardware constraints, which motivate receive antenna selection, also require that various antenna elements at the receiver be sounded sequentially to obtain estimates required for selecting the `best' antenna and for coherently demodulating data thereafter. Consequently, the channel state information at different antennas is outdated by different amounts and corrupted by noise. We show that, for this reason, simply selecting the antenna with the highest estimated channel gain is not optimum. Rather, a preferable strategy is to linearly weight the channel estimates of different antennas differently, depending on the training scheme. We derive closed-form expressions for the symbol error probability (SEP) of AS for MPSK and MQAM in time-varying Rayleigh fading channels for arbitrary selection weights, and validate them with simulations. We then characterize explicitly the optimal selection weights that minimize the SEP. We also consider packet reception, in which multiple symbols of a packet are received by the same antenna. New suboptimal, but computationally efficient weighted selection schemes are proposed for reducing the packet error rate. The benefits of weighted selection are also demonstrated using a practical channel code used in third generation cellular systems. Our results show that optimal weighted selection yields a significant performance gain over conventional unweighted selection.

On Training and Training Voids for Receive Antenna Subset Selection in Time-Varying Channels

Antenna selection (AS) provides most of the benefits of multiple-antenna systems at drastically reduced hardware costs. In receive AS, the receiver connects a dynamically selected subset of N available antennas to the L available RF chains. The "best" subset to be used for data reception is determined by means of channel estimates acquired using training sequences. Due to the nature of AS, the channel estimates at different antennas are obtained from different transmissions of the pilot sequence, and are, thus, outdated by different amounts in a time-varying channel. We show that a linear weighting of the estimates is optimum for the subset selection process, where the weights are related to the temporal correlation of the channel variations. When L is not an integer divisor of N, we highlight a new issue of "training voids", in which the last pilot transmission is not fully exploited by the receiver. We present a "void-filling" method for fully exploiting these voids, which essentially provides more accurate training for some antennas, and derive the optimal subset selection rule for any void-filling method. We also derive new closed-form equations for the performance of receive AS with optimal subset selection.

Training and Voids in Receive Antenna Subset Selection in Time-Varying Channels

Receive antenna selection (AS) provides many benefits of multiple-antenna systems at drastically reduced hardware costs. In it, the receiver connects a dynamically selected subset of N available antennas to the L available RF chains. Due to the nature of AS, the channel estimates at different antennas, which are required to determine the best subset for data reception, are obtained from different transmissions of the pilot sequence. Consequently, they are outdated by different amounts in a time-varying channel. We show that a linear weighting of the estimates is necessary and optimum for the subset selection process, where the weights are related to the temporal correlation of the channel variations. When L is not an integer divisor of N , we highlight a new issue of ``training voids'', in which the last pilot transmission is not fully exploited by the receiver. We then present new ``void-filling'' methods that exploit these voids and greatly improve the performance of AS. The optimal subset selection rules with void-filling, in which different antennas turn out to have different numbers of estimates, are also explicitly characterized. Closed-form equations for the symbol error probability with and without void-filling are also developed.

Receive Antenna Selection for Time-Varying Channels Using Discrete Prolate Spheroidal Sequences

Receive antenna selection (AS) has been shown to maintain the diversity benefits of multiple antennas while potentially reducing hardware costs. However, the promised diversity gains of receive AS depend on the assumptions of perfect channel knowledge at the receiver and slowly time-varying fading. By explicitly accounting for practical constraints imposed by the next-generation wireless standards such as training, packetization and antenna switching time, we propose a single receive AS method for time-varying fading channels. The method exploits the low training overhead and accuracy possible from the use of discrete prolate spheroidal (DPS) sequences based reduced rank subspace projection techniques. It only requires knowledge of the Doppler bandwidth, and does not require detailed correlation knowledge. Closed-form expressions for the channel prediction and estimation error as well as symbol error probability (SEP) of M-ary phase-shift keying (MPSK) for symbol-by-symbol receive AS are also derived. It is shown that the proposed AS scheme, after accounting for the practical limitations mentioned above, outperforms the ideal conventional single-input single-output (SISO) system with perfect CSI and no AS at the receiver and AS with conventional estimation based on complex exponential basis functions.

Energy-efficient training for antenna selection in time-varying channels

Training for receive antenna selection (AS) differs from that for conventional multiple antenna systems because of the limited hardware usage inherent in AS. We analyze and optimize the performance of a novel energy-efficient training method tailored for receive AS. In it, the transmitter sends not only pilots that enable the selection process, but also an extra pilot that leads to accurate channel estimates for the selected antenna that actually receives data. For time-varying channels, we propose a novel antenna selection rule and prove that it minimizes the symbol error probability (SEP). We also derive closed-form expressions for the SEP of MPSK, and show that the considered training method is significantly more energy-efficient than the conventional AS training method.

Training for Antenna Selection in Time-Varying Channels: Optimal Selection, Energy Allocation, and Energy Efficiency Evaluation

Single receive antenna selection (AS) is a popular method for obtaining diversity benefits without the additional costs of multiple radio receiver chains. Since only one antenna receives at any time, the transmitter sends a pilot multiple times to enable the receiver to estimate the channel gains of its N antennas to the transmitter and select an antenna. In time-varying channels, the channel estimates of different antennas are outdated to different extents. We analyze the symbol error probability (SEP) in time-varying channels of the N-pilot and (N+1)-pilot AS training schemes. In the former, the transmitter sends one pilot for each receive antenna. In the latter, the transmitter sends one additional pilot that helps sample the channel fading process of the selected antenna twice. We present several new results about the SEP, optimal energy allocation across pilots and data, and optimal selection rule in time-varying channels for the two schemes. We show that due to the unique nature of AS, the (N+1)-pilot scheme, despite its longer training duration, is much more energy-efficient than the conventional N-pilot scheme. An extension to a practical scenario where all data symbols of a packet are received by the same antenna is also investigated.

Antenna selection for time-varying channels based on slepian subspace projections

Single receive antenna selection (AS) allows single-input single-output (SISO) systems to retain the diversity benefits of multiple antennas with minimum hardware costs. We propose a single receive AS method for time-varying channels, in which practical limitations imposed by next-generation wireless standards such as training, packetization and antenna switching time are taken into account. The proposed method utilizes low-complexity subspace projection techniques spanned by discrete prolate spheroidal (DPS) sequences. It only uses Doppler bandwidth knowledge, and does not need detailed correlation knowledge. Results show that the proposed AS method outperforms ideal conventional SISO systems with perfect CSI but no AS at the receiver and AS using the conventional Fourier estimation/prediction method. A closed-form expression for the symbol error probability (SEP) of phase-shift keying (MPSK) with symbol-by-symbol receive AS is derived.

On various types of decoupling for time-varying system

This paper deals with the problem of decoupling a class of linear time-varying multi-variable systems, based on the defining property that the impulse response matrix of a decoupled system is diagonal. Depending on the properties of the coefficient matrices of the vector differential equation of the open-loop system, the system may be uniformly or totally decoupled. The necessary and sufficient conditions that permit a system to be uniformly or totally decoupled by state variable feedback are given. The main contribution of this paper is the precise definition of these two classes of decoupling and a rigorous derivation of the necessary and sufficient conditions which show the necessity of requiring that the system be of constant ordered rank with respect to observability. A simple example illustrates the importance of having several definitions of decoupling. Finally, the results are specialized to the case of time invariant systems.

Regularization of time-varying descriptor systems by the asvd

We study linear variable coefficient control problems in descriptor form. Based on a behaviour approach and the general theory for linear differential algebraic systems we give the theoretical analysis and describe numerically stable methods to determine the structural properties of the system.

Temporal evolution of sulfated zirconia sol-gel during dip coating: Analysis of mass drainage with time-varying refractive index

The formation of sulfated zirconia films from a sol-gel derived aqueous suspension is subjected to double-optical monitoring during batch dip coating. Interpretation of interferometric patterns, previously obscured by a variable refractive index, is now made possible by addition of its direct measurement by a polarimetric technique in real time. Significant sensitivity of the resulting physical thickness and refractive index curves (uncertainties of ±7 nm and ±0.005, respectively) to temporal film evolution is shown under different withdrawal speeds. As a first contribution to quantitative understanding of temporal film formation with varying nanostructure during dip coating, detailed analysis is directed to the stage of the process dominated by mass drainage, whose simple modeling with temporal t-1/2 dependence is verified experimentally. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Smooth Hazard Function Estimation for Interval Censored Data with Time Varying Covariates

In this paper we propose methods for smooth hazard estimation of a time variable where that variable is interval censored. These methods allow one to model the transformed hazard in terms of either smooth (smoothing splines) or linear functions of time and other relevant time varying predictor variables. We illustrate the use of this method on a dataset of hemophiliacs where the outcome, time to seroconversion for HIV, is interval censored and left-truncated.

A Combinatorial Approach to the Variable Selection in Multiple Linear Regression: Analysis of Selwood et al Data set -A Case Study.

A combinatorial protocol (CP) is introduced here to interface it with the multiple linear regression (MLR) for variable selection. The efficiency of CP-MLR is primarily based on the restriction of entry of correlated variables to the model development stage. It has been used for the analysis of Selwood et al data set [16], and the obtained models are compared with those reported from GFA [8] and MUSEUM [9] approaches. For this data set CP-MLR could identify three highly independent models (27, 28 and 31) with Q2 value in the range of 0.632-0.518. Also, these models are divergent and unique. Even though, the present study does not share any models with GFA [8], and MUSEUM [9] results, there are several descriptors common to all these studies, including the present one. Also a simulation is carried out on the same data set to explain the model formation in CP-MLR. The results demonstrate that the proposed method should be able to offer solutions to data sets with 50 to 60 descriptors in reasonable time frame. By carefully selecting the inter-parameter correlation cutoff values in CP-MLR one can identify divergent models and handle data sets larger than the present one without involving excessive computer time.