902 resultados para Time-lapse data
Resumo:
Time-lapse geophysical data acquired during transient hydrological experiments are being increasingly employed to estimate subsurface hydraulic properties at the field scale. In particular, crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, collected while water infiltrates into the subsurface either by natural or artificial means, have been demonstrated in a number of studies to contain valuable information concerning the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone. Previous work in this domain has considered a variety of infiltration conditions and different amounts of time-lapse GPR data in the estimation procedure. However, the particular benefits and drawbacks of these different strategies as well as the impact of a variety of key and common assumptions remain unclear. Using a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo stochastic inversion methodology, we examine in this paper the information content of time-lapse zero-offset-profile (ZOP) GPR traveltime data, collected under three different infiltration conditions, for the estimation of van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters in a layered subsurface medium. Specifically, we systematically analyze synthetic and field GPR data acquired under natural loading and two rates of forced infiltration, and we consider the value of incorporating different amounts of time-lapse measurements into the estimation procedure. Our results confirm that, for all infiltration scenarios considered, the ZOP GPR traveltime data contain important information about subsurface hydraulic properties as a function of depth, with forced infiltration offering the greatest potential for VGM parameter refinement because of the higher stressing of the hydrological system. Considering greater amounts of time-lapse data in the inversion procedure is also found to help refine VGM parameter estimates. Quite importantly, however, inconsistencies observed in the field results point to the strong possibility that posterior uncertainties are being influenced by model structural errors, which in turn underlines the fundamental importance of a systematic analysis of such errors in future related studies.
Resumo:
Time-lapse geophysical monitoring and inversion are valuable tools in hydrogeology for monitoring changes in the subsurface due to natural and forced (tracer) dynamics. However, the resulting models may suffer from insufficient resolution, which leads to underestimated variability and poor mass recovery. Structural joint inversion using cross-gradient constraints can provide higher-resolution models compared with individual inversions and we present the first application to time-lapse data. The results from a synthetic and field vadose zone water tracer injection experiment show that joint 3-D time-lapse inversion of crosshole electrical resistance tomography (ERT) and ground penetrating radar (GPR) traveltime data significantly improve the imaged characteristics of the point injected plume, such as lateral spreading and center of mass, as well as the overall consistency between models. The joint inversion method appears to work well for cases when one hydrological state variable (in this case moisture content) controls the time-lapse response of both geophysical methods. Citation: Doetsch, J., N. Linde, and A. Binley (2010), Structural joint inversion of time-lapse crosshole ERT and GPR traveltime data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L24404, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045482.
Resumo:
L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.
Resumo:
One of the original ocean-bottom time-lapse seismic studies was performed at the Teal South oil field in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1990’s. This work reexamines some aspects of previous work using modern analysis techniques to provide improved quantitative interpretations. Using three-dimensional volume visualization of legacy data and the two phases of post-production time-lapse data, I provide additional insight into the fluid migration pathways and the pressure communication between different reservoirs, separated by faults. This work supports a conclusion from previous studies that production from one reservoir caused regional pressure decline that in turn resulted in liberation of gas from multiple surrounding unproduced reservoirs. I also provide an explanation for unusual time-lapse changes in amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) data related to the compaction of the producing reservoir which, in turn, changed an isotropic medium to an anisotropic medium. In the first part of this work, I examine regional changes in seismic response due to the production of oil and gas from one reservoir. The previous studies primarily used two post-production ocean-bottom surveys (Phase I and Phase II), and not the legacy streamer data, due to the unavailability of legacy prestack data and very different acquisition parameters. In order to incorporate the legacy data in the present study, all three poststack data sets were cross-equalized and examined using instantaneous amplitude and energy volumes. This approach appears quite effective and helps to suppress changes unrelated to production while emphasizing those large-amplitude changes that are related to production in this noisy (by current standards) suite of data. I examine the multiple data sets first by using the instantaneous amplitude and energy attributes, and then also examine specific apparent time-lapse changes through direct comparisons of seismic traces. In so doing, I identify time-delays that, when corrected for, indicate water encroachment at the base of the producing reservoir. I also identify specific sites of leakage from various unproduced reservoirs, the result of regional pressure blowdown as explained in previous studies; those earlier studies, however, were unable to identify direct evidence of fluid movement. Of particular interest is the identification of one site where oil apparently leaked from one reservoir into a “new” reservoir that did not originally contain oil, but was ideally suited as a trap for fluids leaking from the neighboring spill-point. With continued pressure drop, oil in the new reservoir increased as more oil entered into the reservoir and expanded, liberating gas from solution. Because of the limited volume available for oil and gas in that temporary trap, oil and gas also escaped from it into the surrounding formation. I also note that some of the reservoirs demonstrate time-lapse changes only in the “gas cap” and not in the oil zone, even though gas must be coming out of solution everywhere in the reservoir. This is explained by interplay between pore-fluid modulus reduction by gas saturation decrease and dry-frame modulus increase by frame stiffening. In the second part of this work, I examine various rock-physics models in an attempt to quantitatively account for frame-stiffening that results from reduced pore-fluid pressure in the producing reservoir, searching for a model that would predict the unusual AVO features observed in the time-lapse prestack and stacked data at Teal South. While several rock-physics models are successful at predicting the time-lapse response for initial production, most fail to match the observations for continued production between Phase I and Phase II. Because the reservoir was initially overpressured and unconsolidated, reservoir compaction was likely significant, and is probably accomplished largely by uniaxial strain in the vertical direction; this implies that an anisotropic model may be required. Using Walton’s model for anisotropic unconsolidated sand, I successfully model the time-lapse changes for all phases of production. This observation may be of interest for application to other unconsolidated overpressured reservoirs under production.
Resumo:
Time-lapse crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, collected while infiltration occurs, can provide valuable information regarding the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data provides estimates of parameter uncertainties, which are necessary for hydrological prediction and decision making. Here, we investigate the effect of different infiltration conditions on the stochastic inversion of time-lapse, zero-offset-profile, GPR data. Inversions are performed using a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo methodology. Our results clearly indicate that considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions
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Geoelectrical techniques are widely used to monitor groundwater processes, while surprisingly few studies have considered audio (AMT) and radio (RMT) magnetotellurics for such purposes. In this numerical investigation, we analyze to what extent inversion results based on AMT and RMT monitoring data can be improved by (1) time-lapse difference inversion; (2) incorporation of statistical information about the expected model update (i.e., the model regularization is based on a geostatistical model); (3) using alternative model norms to quantify temporal changes (i.e., approximations of l(1) and Cauchy norms using iteratively reweighted least-squares), (4) constraining model updates to predefined ranges (i.e., using Lagrange Multipliers to only allow either increases or decreases of electrical resistivity with respect to background conditions). To do so, we consider a simple illustrative model and a more realistic test case related to seawater intrusion. The results are encouraging and show significant improvements when using time-lapse difference inversion with non l(2) model norms. Artifacts that may arise when imposing compactness of regions with temporal changes can be suppressed through inequality constraints to yield models without oscillations outside the true region of temporal changes. Based on these results, we recommend approximate l(1)-norm solutions as they can resolve both sharp and smooth interfaces within the same model. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A filtering method to correct time-lapse 3D ERT data and improve imaging of natural aquifer dynamics
Resumo:
We have developed a processing methodology that allows crosshole ERT (electrical resistivity tomography) monitoring data to be used to derive temporal fluctuations of groundwater electrical resistivity and thereby characterize the dynamics of groundwater in a gravel aquifer as it is infiltrated by river water. Temporal variations of the raw ERT apparent-resistivity data were mainly sensitive to the resistivity (salinity), temperature and height of the groundwater, with the relative contributions of these effects depending on the time and the electrode configuration. To resolve the changes in groundwater resistivity, we first expressed fluctuations of temperature-detrended apparent-resistivity data as linear superpositions of (i) time series of riverwater-resistivity variations convolved with suitable filter functions and (ii) linear and quadratic representations of river-water-height variations multiplied by appropriate sensitivity factors; river-water height was determined to be a reliable proxy for groundwater height. Individual filter functions and sensitivity factors were obtained for each electrode configuration via deconvolution using a one month calibration period and then the predicted contributions related to changes in water height were removed prior to inversion of the temperature-detrended apparent-resistivity data. Applications of the filter functions and sensitivity factors accurately predicted the apparent-resistivity variations (the correlation coefficient was 0.98). Furthermore, the filtered ERT monitoring data and resultant time-lapse resistivity models correlated closely with independently measured groundwater electrical resistivity monitoring data and only weakly with the groundwater-height fluctuations. The inversion results based on the filtered ERT data also showed significantly less inversion artefacts than the raw data inversions. We observed resistivity increases of up to 10% and the arrival time peaks in the time-lapse resistivity models matched those in the groundwater resistivity monitoring data.
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Time-lapse geophysical measurements are widely used to monitor the movement of water and solutes through the subsurface. Yet commonly used deterministic least squares inversions typically suffer from relatively poor mass recovery, spread overestimation, and limited ability to appropriately estimate nonlinear model uncertainty. We describe herein a novel inversion methodology designed to reconstruct the three-dimensional distribution of a tracer anomaly from geophysical data and provide consistent uncertainty estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Posterior sampling is made tractable by using a lower-dimensional model space related both to the Legendre moments of the plume and to predefined morphological constraints. Benchmark results using cross-hole ground-penetrating radar travel times measurements during two synthetic water tracer application experiments involving increasingly complex plume geometries show that the proposed method not only conserves mass but also provides better estimates of plume morphology and posterior model uncertainty than deterministic inversion results.
Resumo:
Geophysical methods have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, time-lapse geophysical data, when coupled with a hydrological model and inverted stochastically, may allow for the effective estimation of subsurface hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. In this study, we use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach to investigate how much information regarding vadose zone hydraulic properties can be retrieved from time-lapse crosshole GPR data collected at the Arrenaes field site in Denmark during a forced infiltration experiment.
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The ground-penetrating radar (GPR) geophysical method has the potential to provide valuable information on the hydraulic properties of the vadose zone because of its strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR traveltime data can allow for a significant reduction in uncertainty regarding subsurface van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters. Much of the previous work on the stochastic estimation of VGM parameters from crosshole GPR data has considered the case of steady-state infiltration conditions, which represent only a small fraction of practically relevant scenarios. We explored in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically examining to what extent time-lapse crosshole GPR traveltimes, measured during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arreneas field site in Denmark, could help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties in a layered medium, as well as the corresponding soil hydraulic properties. We used a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inversion approach. We first explored the advantages and limitations of this approach with regard to a realistic synthetic example before applying it to field measurements. In our analysis, we also considered different degrees of prior information. Our findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of the time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions compared with the corresponding priors, which in turn significantly improves knowledge of soil hydraulic properties. Overall, the results obtained clearly demonstrate the value of the information contained in time-lapse GPR data for characterizing vadose zone dynamics.
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A baited imaging lander was deployed six times in the Nazare Canyon at depths from 909 to 4361 m during August 2005 to investigate the demersal scavenging fishes. Species observed and lander-derived abundance estimates were similar to previous data from the Porcupine Seabight and abyssal plain, north-east Atlantic Ocean.
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The infiltration of river water into aquifers is of high relevance to drinking-water production and is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic and riparian zone, but the distribution and quantification of the infiltrating water are difficult to determine using conventional hydrological methods (e.g., borehole logging and tracer tests). By time-lapse inverting crosshole ERT (electrical resistivity tomography) monitoring data, we imaged groundwater flow patterns driven by river water infiltrating a perialpine gravel aquifer in northeastern Switzerland. This was possible because the electrical resistivity of the infiltrating water changed during rainfall-runoff events. Our time-lapse resistivity models indicated rather complex flow patterns as a result of spatially heterogeneous bank filtration and aquifer heterogeneity. The upper part of the aquifer was most affected by the river infiltrate, and the highest groundwater velocities and possible preferential flow occurred at shallow to intermediate depths. Time series of the reconstructed resistivity models matched groundwater electrical resistivity data recorded on borehole loggers in the upper and middle parts of the aquifer, whereas the resistivity models displayed smaller variations and delayed responses with respect to the logging data. in the lower part. This study demonstrated that crosshole ERT monitoring of natural electrical resistivity variations of river infiltrate could be used to image and quantify 3D bank filtration and aquifer dynamics at a high spatial resolution.
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Purpose: To evaluate the effects of the elapsed time (ET) after nonvital bleaching (NVB) and sodium ascorbate application (10%) (SAA) on the shear bond strength of dentin to ceramic.Materials and Methods: Bovine incisors were selected, internally bleached (35% carbamide peroxide) for 9 days and submitted to the following treatments (n = 10): G1, G2, G3-luting after 1, 7, and 14 days; G4, G5, and G6-luting after SAA, 1, 7, and 14 days, respectively. G7 and G8 were not bleached: G7-luting 24 hours after access cavity sealing; G8-luting 24 hours after access cavity sealing after SAA. After NVB, the vestibular dentin was exposed and flattened. The SAA was applied to the dentin (G4, G5, G6, G8) for 10 minutes, and it was then washed and dried. The dentin was etched (37% phosphoric acid), and an adhesive system (Single Bond 2) was applied. Feldspathic ceramic discs (VM7; 4-mm diameter, 3-mm thick) were luted with a dual-resin agent (RelyX ARC, 3M ESPE Dental Products, St. Paul, MN). After 24 hours, specimens were submitted to shear test on a universal testing machine. The data (MPa) were submitted to ANOVA and Dunnet's test (5%).Results: The means (+/- SD) obtained were (MPa): G1 (14 +/- 4.5), G2 (14.6 +/- 3.1), G3 (14 +/- 3.7), G4 (15.5 +/- 4.6), G5 (19.87 +/- 4.5), G6 (16.5 +/- 3.7), G7 (22.8 +/- 6.2), and G8 (18.9 +/- 5.4). SAA had a significant effect on bond strength (p = 0.0054). The effect of ET was not significant (p = 0.1519). G5 and G6 presented higher values than the other bleached groups (p < 0.05) and similar to G7 and G8 (p > 0.05).Conclusions: After NVB, adhesive luting to dentin is recommended after 7 days if sodium ascorbate has been applied prior to dentin hybridization.
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Current methods to characterize mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are limited to CD marker expression, plastic adherence and their ability to differentiate into adipogenic, osteogenic and chondrogenic precursors. It seems evident that stem cells undergoing differentiation should differ in many aspects, such as morphology and possibly also behaviour; however, such a correlation has not yet been exploited for fate prediction of MSCs. Primary human MSCs from bone marrow were expanded and pelleted to form high-density cultures and were then randomly divided into four groups to differentiate into adipogenic, osteogenic chondrogenic and myogenic progenitor cells. The cells were expanded as heterogeneous and tracked with time-lapse microscopy to record cell shape, using phase-contrast microscopy. The cells were segmented using a custom-made image-processing pipeline. Seven morphological features were extracted for each of the segmented cells. Statistical analysis was performed on the seven-dimensional feature vectors, using a tree-like classification method. Differentiation of cells was monitored with key marker genes and histology. Cells in differentiation media were expressing the key genes for each of the three pathways after 21 days, i.e. adipogenic, osteogenic and chondrogenic, which was also confirmed by histological staining. Time-lapse microscopy data were obtained and contained new evidence that two cell shape features, eccentricity and filopodia (= 'fingers') are highly informative to classify myogenic differentiation from all others. However, no robust classifiers could be identified for the other cell differentiation paths. The results suggest that non-invasive automated time-lapse microscopy could potentially be used to predict the stem cell fate of hMSCs for clinical application, based on morphology for earlier time-points. The classification is challenged by cell density, proliferation and possible unknown donor-specific factors, which affect the performance of morphology-based approaches. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.