Spatio-Temporal data modeling in response to deforestation monitoring (a case study of small region in Riau Province, Indonesia)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870–2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.

Experiences From The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: Ecological Findings And Conservation Initiatives.

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest hosts one of the world's most diverse and threatened tropical forest biota. In many ways, its history of degradation describes the fate experienced by tropical forests around the world. After five centuries of human expansion, most Atlantic Forest landscapes are archipelagos of small forest fragments surrounded by open-habitat matrices. This 'natural laboratory' has contributed to a better understanding of the evolutionary history and ecology of tropical forests and to determining the extent to which this irreplaceable biota is susceptible to major human disturbances. We share some of the major findings with respect to the responses of tropical forests to human disturbances across multiple biological levels and spatial scales and discuss some of the conservation initiatives adopted in the past decade. First, we provide a short description of the Atlantic Forest biota and its historical degradation. Secondly, we offer conceptual models describing major shifts experienced by tree assemblages at local scales and discuss landscape ecological processes that can help to maintain this biota at larger scales. We also examine potential plant responses to climate change. Finally, we propose a research agenda to improve the conservation value of human-modified landscapes and safeguard the biological heritage of tropical forests.

Differential dynamic properties of scleroderma fibroblasts in response to perturbation of environmental stimuli.

Diseases are believed to arise from dysregulation of biological systems (pathways) perturbed by environmental triggers. Biological systems as a whole are not just the sum of their components, rather ever-changing, complex and dynamic systems over time in response to internal and external perturbation. In the past, biologists have mainly focused on studying either functions of isolated genes or steady-states of small biological pathways. However, it is systems dynamics that play an essential role in giving rise to cellular function/dysfunction which cause diseases, such as growth, differentiation, division and apoptosis. Biological phenomena of the entire organism are not only determined by steady-state characteristics of the biological systems, but also by intrinsic dynamic properties of biological systems, including stability, transient-response, and controllability, which determine how the systems maintain their functions and performance under a broad range of random internal and external perturbations. As a proof of principle, we examine signal transduction pathways and genetic regulatory pathways as biological systems. We employ widely used state-space equations in systems science to model biological systems, and use expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms and Kalman filter to estimate the parameters in the models. We apply the developed state-space models to human fibroblasts obtained from the autoimmune fibrosing disease, scleroderma, and then perform dynamic analysis of partial TGF-beta pathway in both normal and scleroderma fibroblasts stimulated by silica. We find that TGF-beta pathway under perturbation of silica shows significant differences in dynamic properties between normal and scleroderma fibroblasts. Our findings may open a new avenue in exploring the functions of cells and mechanism operative in disease development.

Differential dynamic properties of scleroderma fibroblasts in response to perturbation of environmental stimuli.

Diseases are believed to arise from dysregulation of biological systems (pathways) perturbed by environmental triggers. Biological systems as a whole are not just the sum of their components, rather ever-changing, complex and dynamic systems over time in response to internal and external perturbation. In the past, biologists have mainly focused on studying either functions of isolated genes or steady-states of small biological pathways. However, it is systems dynamics that play an essential role in giving rise to cellular function/dysfunction which cause diseases, such as growth, differentiation, division and apoptosis. Biological phenomena of the entire organism are not only determined by steady-state characteristics of the biological systems, but also by intrinsic dynamic properties of biological systems, including stability, transient-response, and controllability, which determine how the systems maintain their functions and performance under a broad range of random internal and external perturbations. As a proof of principle, we examine signal transduction pathways and genetic regulatory pathways as biological systems. We employ widely used state-space equations in systems science to model biological systems, and use expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms and Kalman filter to estimate the parameters in the models. We apply the developed state-space models to human fibroblasts obtained from the autoimmune fibrosing disease, scleroderma, and then perform dynamic analysis of partial TGF-beta pathway in both normal and scleroderma fibroblasts stimulated by silica. We find that TGF-beta pathway under perturbation of silica shows significant differences in dynamic properties between normal and scleroderma fibroblasts. Our findings may open a new avenue in exploring the functions of cells and mechanism operative in disease development.

The BALB/c mouse B-cell response to pigeon cytochrome c initiates as a heteroclitic response specific for the self antigen mouse cytochrome c.

Direct evidence is presented in support of the longstanding but unproven hypothesis that B lymphocytes specific for self antigens (Ags) can be used in the immune response to foreign Ags. We show that the B cells in BALB/c mic responding early to pigeon cytochrome c (CYT) produce antibodies that recognize and bind the major antigenic site on mouse CYT with greater affinity than they bind pigeon CYT i.e., they are heteroclitic for the self Ag. Furthermore, these B cells express the same combination of immunoglobulin variable region (V) genes that are known to be used in B-cell recognition of mouse CYT. Over time, the response to pigeon CYT becomes more specific for the foreign Ag through the recruitment of B cells expressing different combinations of V genes and, possibly, somatic mutation of the mouse CYT specific B cells from early in the response. Cross-recognition of pigeon CYT by mouse CYT-specific B cells results from the sharing of critical amino acid residues by the two Ags. Although B-cell recognition of the self Ag, mouse CYT, is very specific, which limits the extent to which foreign Ags can cross-activate the autoreactive B cells, it is possible that polyreactive B cells to other self Ags may be used more frequently in response to foreign Ags.

Time-lag in biological responses to landscape changes in a highly dynamic Atlantic forest region

Time-lagged responses of biological variables to landscape modifications are widely recognized, but rarely considered in ecological studies. In order to test for the existence of time-lags in the response of trees, small mammals, birds and frogs to changes in fragment area and connectivity, we studied a fragmented and highly dynamic landscape in the Atlantic forest region. We also investigated the biological correlates associated with differential responses among taxonomic groups. Species richness and abundance for four taxonomic groups were measured in 21 secondary forest fragments during the same period (2000-2002), following a standardized protocol. Data analyses were based on power regressions and model selection procedures. The model inputs included present (2000) and past (1962, 1981) fragment areas and connectivity, as well as observed changes in these parameters. Although past landscape structure was particularly relevant for trees, all taxonomic groups (except small mammals) were affected by landscape dynamics, exhibiting a time-lagged response. Furthermore, fragment area was more important for species groups with lower dispersal capacity, while species with higher dispersal ability had stronger responses to connectivity measures. Although these secondary forest fragments still maintain a large fraction of their original biodiversity, the delay in biological response combined with high rates of deforestation and fast forest regeneration imply in a reduction in the average age of the forest. This also indicates that future species losses are likely, especially those that are more strictly-forest dwellers. Conservation actions should be implemented to reduce species extinction, to maintain old-growth forests and to favour the regeneration process. Our results demonstrate that landscape history can strongly affect the present distribution pattern of species in fragmented landscapes, and should be considered in conservation planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Simulation of Real-Time Pricing Demand Response to Meet Wind Variations

Recent changes of paradigm in power systems opened the opportunity to the active participation of new players. The small and medium players gain new opportunities while participating in demand response programs. This paper explores the optimal resources scheduling in two distinct levels. First, the network operator facing large wind power variations makes use of real time pricing to induce consumers to meet wind power variations. Then, at the consumer level, each load is managed according to the consumer preferences. The two-level resources schedule has been implemented in a real-time simulation platform, which uses hardware for consumer’ loads control. The illustrative example includes a situation of large lack of wind power and focuses on a consumer with 18 loads.

Time-Course In Vivo Trafficking Pattern and Effector Function of Donor-Specific Regulatory T Cells in Response to an Allograft.

Background: Experimental data have suggested that adoptive transfer of CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs), capable of controlling immune responses to specifi c auto- or alloantigens, could be used as a therapeutic strategy to promote specifi c tolerance in T-cell mediated diseases and in organ transplantation (Tx). However, before advocating the application of immunotherapy with Tregs in Tx, we need to improve our understanding of their in vivo homeostasis, traffi cking pattern and effector function in response to alloantigens. Methods : Donor-antigen specifi c murine Tregs were generated and characterized in vitro following our described protocols. Using an adoptive transfer and skin allotransplantation model, we have analyzed the in vivo expansion and homing of fl uorescent-labeled effector T cells (Teff) and Tregs, at different time-points after Tx, using fl ow-cytometry as well as fl uorescence microscopy techniques. Results: Tregs expressed CD62L, CCR7 and CD103 allowing their homing into lymphoid and non-lymphoid tissues (gut, skin) after intravenous injection. While hyporesponsive to TCR stimulation in vitro, transferred Tregs survived, migrated to secondary lymphoid organs and preferentially expanded within the allograft draining lymph nodes. Furthermore, Foxp3+ cells could be detected inside the allograft as early as day 3-5 after Tx. At a much later time-point (day 60 after Tx), graft-infi ltrating Foxp3+ cells were also detectable in tolerant recipients. When transferred alone, CD4+CD25- Teff cells expanded within secondary lymphoid organs and infi ltrated the allograft by day 3-5 after Tx. The co-transfer of Tregs limited the expansion of alloreactive Teff cells as well as their recruitment into the allograft. The promotion of graft survival observed in the presence of Tregs was in part mediated by the inhibition of the production of effector cytokines by CD4+CD25- T cells. Conclusion: Taken together, our results suggest that the suppression of allograft rejection and the induction of Tx tolerance are in part dependant on the alloantigendriven homing and expansion of Tregs. Thus, the appropriate localization of Tregs may be critical for their suppressive function in vivo.

Gender inequalities in the response to combination antiretroviral therapy over time: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Gender-specific data on the outcome of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) are a subject of controversy. We aimed to compare treatment responses between genders in a setting of equal access to cART over a 14-year period. METHODS: Analyses included treatment-naïve participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting cART between 1998 and 2011 and were restricted to patients infected by heterosexual contacts or injecting drug use, excluding men who have sex with men. RESULTS: A total of 3925 patients (1984 men and 1941 women) were included in the analysis. Women were younger and had higher CD4 cell counts and lower HIV RNA at baseline than men. Women were less likely to achieve virological suppression < 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL at 1 year (75.2% versus 78.1% of men; P = 0.029) and at 2 years (77.5% versus 81.1%, respectively; P = 0.008), whereas no difference between sexes was observed at 5 years (81.3% versus 80.5%, respectively; P = 0.635). The probability of virological suppression increased in both genders over time (test for trend, P < 0.001). The median increase in CD4 cell count at 1, 2 and 5 years was generally higher in women during the whole study period, but it gradually improved over time in both sexes (P < 0.001). Women also were more likely to switch or stop treatment during the first year of cART, and stops were only partly driven by pregnancy. In multivariate analysis, after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, HIV-related factors, cART and calendar period, female gender was no longer associated with lower odds of virological suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Gender inequalities in the response to cART are mainly explained by the different prevalence of socioeconomic characteristics in women compared with men.

Wavelet filtered modelling applied to measurements of a waveguide's THz time domain response

A quasi-optical de-embedding technique for characterizing waveguides is demonstrated using wideband time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy. A transfer function representation is adopted for the description of the signal in the input and output port of the waveguides. The time domain responses were discretised and the waveguide transfer function was obtained through a parametric approach in the z-domain after describing the system with an ARX as well as with a state space model. Prior to the identification procedure, filtering was performed in the wavelet domain to minimize signal distortion and the noise propagating in the ARX and subspace models. The model identification procedure requires isolation of the phase delay in the structure and therefore the time-domain signatures must be firstly aligned with respect to each other before they are compared. An initial estimate of the number of propagating modes was provided by comparing the measured phase delay in the structure with theoretical calculations that take into account the physical dimensions of the waveguide. Models derived from measurements of THz transients in a precision WR-8 waveguide adjustable short will be presented.

The significance of occupancy steadiness in residential consumer response to Time of Use pricing: Evidence from a stochastic adjustment model

The recent roll-out of smart metering technologies in several developed countries has intensified research on the impacts of Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing on consumption. This paper analyses a TOU dataset from the Province of Trento in Northern Italy using a stochastic adjustment model. Findings highlight the non-steadiness of the relationship between consumption and TOU price. Weather and active occupancy can partly explain future consumption in relation to price.

Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms’ response to inflation shocks

This paper proposes a test for distinguishing between time-dependent and state-dependent pricing based on whether the timing of pricing changes is affected by realized or expeted inflation. Using Brazilian data and exploring a large discrepancy between realized and expected inflation in 2002-3, we obtain a strong relation between expected inflation and duration of price spells, but little effect of inflation shocks on the frequency of price adjustment. The results thus support models with timedependent pricing, where the timing for following changes is optimally chosen whenever firms adjust prices