The influence of time since fire and distance from fire boundary on the distribution and abundance of arboreal marsupials in Eucalyptus regnans-dominated forest in the Central Highlands of Victoria

The impact of time since fire after two consecutive wildfires 44 years apart (1939 and 1983) within the same area, and the distance from the fire boundary «100 m or 500-2000 m), were investigated in relation to the distribution and abundance of arboreal marsupials in 1994. Arboreal marsupials were censused by stagwatching and spotlighting in two relatively young age classes of mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) dominated forest in the Central Highlands of Victoria. Five species of arboreal marsupial were detected, but only three were detected in sufficient numbers to determine habitat preferences. Petauroides volans (greater glider) was statistically more abundant in 1939 regrowth forests, while Trichosurus caninus (mountain brushtail possum) showed no significant preference for either age class of forest. All but one record of Gymnobelideus leadbeateri (Leadbeater's possum) came from young forest, though the effect of age-class was not statistically significant. Distance from fire boundary explained little or no variation in mammal distribution or abundance. While the actual number of hollow-bearing trees was similar in both age classes of forest, the long-term lifespan of hollow-bearing trees in more recently burnt forest is predicted to be lower than in unburnt or not recently burnt forest. Post-fire salvage logging following the 1983 wildfires appears to have reduced the number of hollow-bearing trees at sites burnt in 1983.

Effects of time since fire on birds : how informative are generalized fire response curves for conservation management?

Fire is both a widespread natural disturbance that affects the distribution of species and a tool that can be used to manage habitats for species. Knowledge of temporal changes in the occurrence of species after fire is essential for conservation management in fire-prone environments. Two key issues are: whether postfire responses of species are idiosyncratic or if multiple species show a limited number of similar responses; and whether such responses to time since fire can predict the occurrence of species across broad spatial scales. We examined the response of bird species to time since fire in semiarid shrubland in southeastern Australia using data from surveys at 499 sites representing a 100-year chronosequence. We used nonlinear regression to model the probability of occurrence of 30 species with time since fire in two vegetation types, and compared species' responses with generalized response shapes from the literature. The occurrence of 16 species was significantly influenced by time since fire: they displayed six main responses consistent with generalized response shapes. Of these 16 species, 15 occurred more frequently in mid- or later-successional vegetation (>20 years since fire), and only one species occurred more often in early succession (<5 years since fire). The models had reasonable predictive ability for eight species, some predictive ability for seven species, and were little better than random for one species. Bird species displayed a limited range of responses to time since fire; thus a small set of fire ages should allow the provision of habitat for most species. Postfire successional changes extend for decades and management of the age class distribution of vegetation will need to reflect this timescale. Response curves revealed important seral stages for species and highlighted the importance of mid- to late-successional vegetation (>20 years). Although time since fire clearly influences the distribution of numerous bird species, predictive models of the spatial distribution of species in fire-prone landscapes need to incorporate other factors in addition to time since fire.

Ageing mallee eucalypt vegetation after fire : insights for successional trajectories in semi-arid mallee ecosystems

A critical requirement in the ecological management of fire is knowledge of the age-class distribution of the vegetation. Such knowledge is important because it underpins the distribution of ecological features important to plants and animals including retreat sites, food sources and foraging microhabitats. However, in many regions, knowledge of the age-class distribution of vegetation is severely constrained by the limited data available on fire history. Much fire-history mapping is restricted to post-1972 fires, following satellite imagery becoming widely available. To investigate fire history in the semi-arid Murray Mallee region in southern Australia, we developed regression models for six species of mallee eucalypt (Eucalyptus oleosa F.Muell. ex. Miq. subsp. oleosa, E. leptophylla F.Muell. ex. Miq., E. dumosa J. Oxley, E. costata subsp. murrayana L. A. S. Johnson & K. D. Hill, E. gracilis F.Muell. and E. socialis F.Muell. ex. Miq.) to quantify the relationship between mean stem diameter and stem age (indicated by fire-year) at sites of known time since fire. We then used these models to predict mean stem age, and thus infer fire-year, for sites where the time since fire was not known. Validation of the models with independent data revealed a highly significant correlation between the actual and predicted time since fire (r = 0.71, P < 0.001, n = 88), confirming the utility of this method for ageing stands of mallee eucalypt vegetation. Validation data suggest the models provide a conservative estimate of the age of a site (i.e. they may under-estimate the minimum age of sites >35 years since fire). Nevertheless, this approach enables examination of post-fire chronosequences in semi-arid mallee ecosystems to be extended from 35 years post-fire to over 100 years. The predicted ages identified for mallee stands imply a need for redefining what is meant by ‘old-growth’ mallee, and challenges current perceptions of an over-abundance of ‘long-unburnt’ mallee vegetation. Given the strong influence of fire on semi-arid mallee vegetation, this approach offers the potential for a better understanding of long-term successional dynamics and the status of biota in an ecosystem that encompasses more than 250 000 km² of southern Australia.

Single-point isotope measurements in blood cells and plasma to estimate the time since diet switches

1. Understanding ecological phenomena often requires an accurate assessment of the timing of events. To estimate the time since a diet shift in animals without knowledge on the isotope ratios of either the old or the new diet, isotope ratio measurements in two different tissues (e.g. blood plasma and blood cells) at a single point in time can be used. For this ‘isotopic-clock’ principle, we present here a mathematical model that yields an analytical and easily calculated outcome.

2. Compared with a previously published model, our model assumes the isotopic difference between the old and new diets to be constant if multiple measurements are taken on the same subject at different points in time. Furthermore, to estimate the time since diet switch, no knowledge of the isotopic signature of tissues under the old diet, but only under the new diet is required.

3. The two models are compared using three calibration data sets including a novel one based on a diet shift experiment in a shorebird (red knot Calidris canutus); sensitivity analyses were conducted. The two models behaved differently and each may prove rather unsatisfactory depending on the system under investigation. A single-tissue model, requiring knowledge of both the old and new diets, generally behaved quite reliably.

4. As blood (cells) and plasma are particularly useful tissues for isotopic-clock research, we trawled the literature on turnover rates in whole blood, cells and plasma. Unfortunately, turnover rate predictions using allometric relations are too unreliable to be used directly in isotopic-clock calculations.

5. We advocate that before applying the isotopic-clock methodology, the propagation of error in the ‘time-since-diet-shift’ estimation is carefully assessed for the system under scrutiny using a sensitivity analysis as proposed here.

Fire and the conservation of the avifauna of mallee ecosystems

This research demonstrates that in mallee ecosystems the bird community changes with time-since-fire and is influenced by the spatial arrangement of landscape mosaics comprised of different post-fire-age vegetation. Fire alters vegetation structure and food availability for birds. The management of fire is critical for the conservation of mallee birds.

Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

Background: Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting.
Findings. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers.
Conclusions: Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk.

The effects of topographic variation and the fire regime on coarse woody debris: insights from a large wildfire

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is a common structural component of terrestrial ecosystems, and provides important habitat for biota. Fires modify the distribution of CWD, both spatially and temporally. Changes in fire regimes, such as those arising from prescribed burning and changing climatic conditions, make it critical to understand the response of this resource to fire. We created a conceptual model of the effects of fire on logs and dead trees in topographically diverse forests in which trees often survive severe fire. We then surveyed paired sites, in a damp gully and adjacent drier slope, ~3.5. years after a large wildfire in south-eastern Australia. Sites were stratified by fire severity (unburnt, understorey burnt and severely burnt), and fire history (burnt ≤3. years or ≥20. years prior to the wildfire). Both components of the fire regime influenced CWD availability in gullies. Severe wildfire and fire history ≤3. years reduced the volume of small logs (10-30. cm diameter) in gullies, while severe wildfire increased the number of large dead trees in gullies. CWD on slopes was not affected by fire severity or history at ~3.5. years post-fire. Log volumes on slopes may recover more quickly after wildfire through rapid collapse of branches and trees. Gullies generally supported more logs than slopes, but longer inter-fire intervals in gullies may allow fuel loads to accumulate and lead to comparatively larger fire impacts. Given that fire severity and fire interval are predicted to change in many fire-prone ecosystems in coming decades, this study highlights the importance of understanding the interacting effects of multiple components of the fire regime with landscape structure. In particular, variation in fire interval and fire severity in relation to topographic position will influence the pattern of accumulation of coarse woody debris across the landscape, and therefore the structure and quality of habitats for biota.

Climatic, vegetation and edaphic influences on the probability of fire across mediterranean woodlands of south-eastern Australia

 Aim: We investigated how the probability of burning is influenced by the time since fire (TSF) and gradients of climate, soil and vegetation in the fire-prone mediterranean-climate mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. This provided insight into the processes controlling contemporary fuel dynamics and fire regimes across biogeographical boundaries, and the consequent effects of climate change on potential shifts in boundaries between fuel systems and fire regimes, at a subcontinental scale. Location: South-eastern Australia. Methods: A desktop-based GIS was used to generate random sampling points across the study region to collect data on intersecting fire interval, rainfall, vegetation and soil type. We used a Bayesian framework to examine the effects of combinations of rainfall, vegetation and soil type on the hazard-of-burning and survival parameters of the Weibull distribution. These analyses identify the nature of environmental controls on the length of fire intervals and the age-dependence of the hazard of burning. Results: Higher rainfall was consistently associated with shorter fire intervals. Within a single level of rainfall, however, the interaction between soil and vegetation type influenced the length of fire intervals. Higher-fertility sands were associated with shorter fire intervals in grass-dominated communities, whereas lower-fertility sands were associated with shorter fire intervals in shrub-dominated communities. The hazard of burning remained largely independent of TSF across the region, only markedly increasing with TSF in shrub-dominated communities at high rainfall. Main conclusions: Rainfall had a dominant influence on fire frequency in the mediterranean-climate mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. Predicted changes in the spatial distribution and amount of rainfall therefore have the potential to drive changes in fire regimes, although the effects of soil fertility and rainfall on fire regimes do not align on a simple productivity gradient. Reduced soil fertility may favour plant traits that increase the rate of woody litter fuel accumulation and flammability, which may alter the overriding influence of rainfall gradients on fire regimes.

Post-fire succession of small mammals in the Cerrado of central Brazil

In the Cerrado savannas from Brazil fire events are common and strongly influence the vegetation structure and, consequently, the associated small mammals. In this paper, we investigate changes in the structure of small mammal communities related to sites of different post-fire ages. Mammals were captured in similar Cerrado sites that differed in time since the last burn ( 1 to 26 yr). We sampled six sites in the wet season of 1997 ( phase 1) and, three years later, six sites in the wet and dry seasons ( phase 2). Six rodent species and four marsupials were captured. Community composition changed drastically as a function of time since fire. The diversity and abundance of small mammals reached maximum values in the early successional stages. The rodent Calomys tener was present only in early seral stages. The rodent Bolomys lasiurus was more frequent in mid-successional stages and decreased in later seral stages, and the rodent Oryzomys subflavus occupied all successional stages. The marsupial Gracilinanus agilis was dominant in the area that did not burn for at least 23 yr. Changes in composition of the community of small mammals were more accelerated in early successional stages, when there are more drastic vegetational changes. The ability of small mammals to cope with Cerrado fires and the great dissimilarity among post-burning seral stages suggest that a mosaic of areas representing different post-fire seral stages could increase the regional diversity of this group.

"Brienzi" - The blue Vivianite man of Switzerland: Time since death estimation of an adipocere body

In 1996, a cadaver in adipocere condition was discovered in a bay of the Brienzer See in Switzerland. The torso was named "Brienzi" following the "Iceman" Ötzi. Several outer parts of the body were incrusted; the incrustation was in blue color. Further investigations showed that the bluish covering of parts of the adipocere torso were a mineral known as Vivianite. Vivianite (Fe(3)(PO(4))(2-)(H(2)O)(8)) is an iron phosphate mineral with needle lengths between 100 and 150μm. It is normally associated in a context with organic archaeological and geological materials (some hundreds to millions of years old). Hitherto, it is only described in three cases of human remains. We were able to reconstruct the following facts about 'Brienzi': The man drowned in Lake Brienz or in one of its tributaries during the 1700s. The body was subsequently covered with sedimentation and thus buried under water. An earthquake produced an underwater landslide which eventually exposed the corpse.

Shorter time since inflammatory bowel disease diagnosis in children is associated with lower mental health in parents.

AIM This study assessed the mental health of parents of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), compared their mental health with age-matched and gender-matched references and examined parental and child predictors for mental health problems. METHODS A total of 125 mothers and 106 fathers of 125 children with active and inactive IBD from the Swiss IBD multicentre cohort study were included. Parental mental health was assessed by the Symptom Checklist 27 and child behaviour problems by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Child medical data were extracted from hospital records. RESULTS While the mothers reported lower mental health, the fathers' mental health was similar, or even better, than in age-matched and gender-matched community controls. In both parents, shorter time since the child's diagnosis was associated with poorer mental health. In addition, the presence of their own IBD diagnosis and child behaviour problems predicted maternal mental health problems. CONCLUSIONS Parents of children with IBD may need professional support when their child is diagnosed, to mitigate distress. This, in turn, may help the child to adjust better to IBD. Particular attention should be paid to mothers who have their own IBD diagnosis and whose children display behaviour problems.