Logistic optimization in tourism networks

55th European Regional Science Association Congress, Lisbon, Portugal (25-28 August 2015).

Modeling Movement of Tourists : Tools and Application in São Miguel Island, Portugal

Tourism contributes to the development of many regions. Different factors affect the movement of tourists within a destination. Those factors are related to the tourist characteristics, like the time budgets, preferences or destination knowledge, and to the destination features, like the attraction characteristics or accessibility level. Tourist decisions aren’t always done in a rational way. Emotions add further complexity to the human decision process. The use of footpaths can play an important role in the satisfaction of tourists, helping them discover the territory and giving them access to different types of attractions. The existence of a mathematical model that integrates the main factors related to the movement of independent tourists within a destination, in a dynamic way, will make possible the creation of an adaptable software tool. This tool will meet the specific needs of tourists, allowing the use of the network in an optimal way by the different tourist profiles, and the needs of the regional government and business, permitting better decisions and the offer of relevant tourism products. This article identifies the main tourists’ mobility criteria in the São Miguel island territory, Azores, Portugal, recognizes the necessary modelling process and identifies the basis for the construction of the mathematical model that explains the movement of tourists within the destination.

Possible solution of some essential zero problems in compositional data analysis

One of the tantalising remaining problems in compositional data analysis lies in how to deal with data sets in which there are components which are essential zeros. By anessential zero we mean a component which is truly zero, not something recorded as zero simply because the experimental design or the measuring instrument has not been sufficiently sensitive to detect a trace of the part. Such essential zeros occur inmany compositional situations, such as household budget patterns, time budgets,palaeontological zonation studies, ecological abundance studies. Devices such as nonzero replacement and amalgamation are almost invariably ad hoc and unsuccessful insuch situations. From consideration of such examples it seems sensible to build up amodel in two stages, the first determining where the zeros will occur and the secondhow the unit available is distributed among the non-zero parts. In this paper we suggest two such models, an independent binomial conditional logistic normal model and a hierarchical dependent binomial conditional logistic normal model. The compositional data in such modelling consist of an incidence matrix and a conditional compositional matrix. Interesting statistical problems arise, such as the question of estimability of parameters, the nature of the computational process for the estimation of both the incidence and compositional parameters caused by the complexity of the subcompositional structure, the formation of meaningful hypotheses, and the devising of suitable testing methodology within a lattice of such essential zero-compositional hypotheses. The methodology is illustrated by application to both simulated and real compositional data

Regression analysis of compositional data when both the dependent variable and independent variable are components

It is well known that regression analyses involving compositional data need special attention because the data are not of full rank. For a regression analysis where both the dependent and independent variable are components we propose a transformation of the components emphasizing their role as dependent and independent variables. A simple linear regression can be performed on the transformed components. The regression line can be depicted in a ternary diagram facilitating the interpretation of the analysis in terms of components. An exemple with time-budgets illustrates the method and the graphical features

Hacking User Experience in a Repository Service: ScholarSphere as a Case Study

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Possible solution of some essential zero problems in compositional data analysis

One of the tantalising remaining problems in compositional data analysis lies in how to deal with data sets in which there are components which are essential zeros. By an essential zero we mean a component which is truly zero, not something recorded as zero simply because the experimental design or the measuring instrument has not been sufficiently sensitive to detect a trace of the part. Such essential zeros occur in many compositional situations, such as household budget patterns, time budgets, palaeontological zonation studies, ecological abundance studies. Devices such as nonzero replacement and amalgamation are almost invariably ad hoc and unsuccessful in such situations. From consideration of such examples it seems sensible to build up a model in two stages, the first determining where the zeros will occur and the second how the unit available is distributed among the non-zero parts. In this paper we suggest two such models, an independent binomial conditional logistic normal model and a hierarchical dependent binomial conditional logistic normal model. The compositional data in such modelling consist of an incidence matrix and a conditional compositional matrix. Interesting statistical problems arise, such as the question of estimability of parameters, the nature of the computational process for the estimation of both the incidence and compositional parameters caused by the complexity of the subcompositional structure, the formation of meaningful hypotheses, and the devising of suitable testing methodology within a lattice of such essential zero-compositional hypotheses. The methodology is illustrated by application to both simulated and real compositional data

Regression analysis of compositional data when both the dependent variable and independent variable are components

It is well known that regression analyses involving compositional data need special attention because the data are not of full rank. For a regression analysis where both the dependent and independent variable are components we propose a transformation of the components emphasizing their role as dependent and independent variables. A simple linear regression can be performed on the transformed components. The regression line can be depicted in a ternary diagram facilitating the interpretation of the analysis in terms of components. An exemple with time-budgets illustrates the method and the graphical features

What limits insect fecundity? Body size- and temperature-dependent egg maturation and oviposition in a butterfly

1. Large female insects usually have high potential fecundity. Therefore selection should favour an increase in body size given that these females get opportunities to realize their potential advantage by maturing and laying more eggs. However, ectotherm physiology is strongly temperature-dependent, and activities are carried out sufficiently only within certain temperature ranges. Thus it remains unclear if the fecundity advantage of a large size is fully realized in natural environments, where thermal conditions are limiting. 2. Insect fecundity might be limited by temperature at two levels; first eggs need to mature, and then the female needs time for strategic ovipositing of the egg. Since a female cannot foresee the number of oviposition opportunities that she will encounter on a given day, the optimal rate of egg maturation will be governed by trade-offs associated with egg- and time-limited oviposition. As females of different sizes will have different amounts of body reserves, size-dependent allocation trade-offs between the mother’s condition and her egg production might be expected. 3. In the temperate butterfly Pararge aegeria , the time and temperature dependence of oviposition and egg maturation, and the interrelatedness of these two processes were investigated in a series of laboratory experiments, allowing a decoupling of the time budgets for the respective processes. 4. The results show that realized fecundity of this species can be limited by both the temperature dependence of egg maturation and oviposition under certain thermal regimes. Furthermore, rates of oviposition and egg maturation seemed to have regulatory effects upon each other. Early reproductive output was correlated with short life span, indicating a cost of reproduction. Finally, large females matured more eggs than small females when deprived of oviposition opportunities. Thus, the optimal allocation of resources to egg production seems dependent on female size. 5. This study highlights the complexity of processes underlying rates of egg maturation and oviposition in ectotherms under natural conditions. We further discuss the importance of temperature variation for egg- vs. time-limited fecundity and the consequences for the evolution of female body size in insects.

Foraging behaviour of Helicoverpa armigera first instar larvae on crop plants of different developmental stages

Understanding how insect pests forage on their food plants can help optimize management strategies. Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lep., Noctuidae) is a major polyphagous pest of agricultural crops worldwide. The immature stages feed and forage on crops at all stages of plant development, damaging fruiting and non-fruiting structures, yet very little is known about the influence of host type or stage on the location and behaviour of larvae. Through semi-continuous observation, we evaluated the foraging (movement and feeding) behaviours of H. armigera first instar larvae as well as the proportion of time spent at key locations on mungbean [Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek] and pigeon pea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millspaugh] of differing developmental stages: seedling- and mature (flowering/pod fill)-stage plants. Both host type and age affected the behaviour of larvae. Larvae spent more time in the upper parts of mature plants than on seedlings and tended to stay at the top of mature plants if they moved there. This difference was greater in pigeon pea than in mungbean. The proportion of time allocated to feeding on different parts of a plant differed with host and age. More feeding occurred in the top of mature pigeon pea plants but did not differ between mature and seedling mungbean plants. The duration of key behaviours did not differ between plant ages in either crop type and was similar between hosts although resting bouts were substantially longer on mungbeans. Thus a polyphagous species such as H. armigera does not forage in equivalent ways on different hosts in the first instar stage.

Exploring the social behaviour of domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) in a public off-leash dog park

The growing popularity of dog parks has created an opportunity to learn more about interactions between companion dogs. Dog-dog behaviour in a public off-leash dog park was described and analyzed using a motivationally-neutral approach. I observed focal dogs from park entry for 400 s and constructed activity time budgets (percentages of time spent with dogs, humans, etc.); rates of socially-relevant dog behaviours (e.g., snout-muzzle contact, physical contact) were also calculated. On average, focal dogs spent 50% of their time alone, nearly 40% with other dogs and 11% in other activities; time with dogs decreased and time alone increased over the first six minutes. Some behaviours were very frequent (i.e., more than 90% of focal dogs initiated and received snout-muzzle contact to the anogenital and head areas, while others were rare (i.e., 9% and 12% of focal dogs initiated and received lunge approaches, respectively). Dog density and focal dog age, sex, neuter status, and size were found to influence some behavioural variables. Future studies should continue to investigate the diverse range of canid behaviours and factors that influence social behaviours in dog park settings.

P-SOCRATES: A parallel software framework for time-critical many-core systems

Article in Press, Corrected Proof

Little ice age advance and retreat sediment budgets for an outlet glacier in western Norway

Bødalsbreen is an outlet glacier of the Jostedalsbreen Ice Field in western Norway. Nine moraine ridges formed during and after the maximum extent of the Little Ice Age (LIA). The stratigraphy of proglacial sediments in the Bødalen basin inside the LIA moraines is examined, and corresponding sediment volumes are calculated based on georadar surveys and seismic profiling. The total erosion rates (etot) by the glacier are determined for the periods AD 1650?1930 and AD 1930?2005 as 0.8 ± 0.4 mm/yr and 0.7 ± 0.3 mm/yr, respectively. These rates are based on the total amount of sediment delivered to the glacier margin. The values are almost one order of magnitude higher than total erosion rates previously calculated for Norwegian glaciers. This is explained by the large amount of pre-existing sediment that was recycled by Bødalsbreen. Thus, the total erosion rate must be considered as a composite of eroded bedrock and of removed pre-existing sediments. The total erosion rate is likely to vary with time owing to a decreasing volume of easily erodible, unconsolidated sediment and till under the glacier. A slight increase in the subglacial bedrock erosion is expected owing to the gradually increasing bedrock surface area exposed to subglacial erosion.

Using Scanning Lasers for Real-Time Pavement Thickness Measurement, TR-538, 2006

Due to limited budgets and reduced inspection staff, state departments of transportation (DOTs) are in need of innovative approaches for providing more efficient quality assurance on concrete paving projects. The goal of this research was to investigate and test new methods that can determine pavement thickness in real time. Three methods were evaluated: laser scanning, ultrasonic sensors, and eddy current sensors. Laser scanning, which scans the surface of the base prior to paving and then scans the surface after paving, can determine the thickness at any point. Also, scanning lasers provide thorough data coverage that can be used to calculate thickness variance accurately and identify any areas where the thickness is below tolerance. Ultrasonic and eddy current sensors also have the potential to measure thickness nondestructively at discrete points and may result in an easier method of obtaining thickness. There appear to be two viable approaches for measuring concrete pavement thickness during the paving operation: laser scanning and eddy current sensors. Laser scanning has proved to be a reliable technique in terms of its ability to provide virtual core thickness with low variability. Research is still required to develop a prototype system that integrates point cloud data from two scanners. Eddy current sensors have also proved to be a suitable alternative, and are probably closer to field implementation than the laser scanning approach. As a next step for this research project, it is suggested that a pavement thickness measuring device using eddy current sensors be created, which would involve both a handheld and paver-mounted version of the device.

Disturbance of wildlife by outdoor winter recreation: allostatic stress response and altered activity-energy budgets

Anthropogenic disturbance of wildlife is of growing conservation concern, but we lack comprehensive approaches of its multiple negative effects. We investigated several effects of disturbance by winter outdoor sports on free-ranging alpine Black Grouse by simultaneously measuring their physiological and behavioral responses. We experimentally flushed radio-tagged Black Grouse from their snow burrows, once a day, during several successive days, and quantified their stress hormone levels (corticosterone metabolites in feces [FCM] collected from individual snow burrows). We also measured feeding time allocation (activity budgets reconstructed from radio-emitted signals) in response to anthropogenic disturbance. Finally, we estimated the related extra energy expenditure that may be incurred: based on activity budgets, energy expenditure was modeled from measures of metabolism obtained from captive birds subjected to different ambient temperatures. The pattern of FCM excretion indicated the existence of a funneling effect as predicted by the allostatic theory of stress: initial stress hormone concentrations showed a wide inter-individual variation, which decreased during experimental flushing. Individuals with low initial pre-flushing FCM values augmented their concentration, while individuals with high initial FCM values lowered it. Experimental disturbance resulted in an extension of feeding duration during the following evening foraging bout, confirming the prediction that Black Grouse must compensate for the extra energy expenditure elicited by human disturbance. Birds with low initial baseline FCM concentrations were those that spent more time foraging. These FCM excretion and foraging patterns suggest that birds with high initial FCM concentrations might have been experiencing a situation of allostatic overload. The energetic model provides quantitative estimates of extra energy expenditure. A longer exposure to ambient temperatures outside the shelter of snow burrows, following disturbance, could increase the daily energy expenditure by >10%, depending principally on ambient temperature and duration of exposure. This study confirms the predictions of allostatic theory and, to the best of our knowledge, constitutes the first demonstration of a funneling effect. It further establishes that winter recreation activities incur costly allostatic behavioral and energetic adjustments, which call for the creation of winter refuge areas together with the implementation of visitor-steering measures for sensitive wildlife.

Long-lived halocarbon trends and budgets from atmospheric chemistry modelling constrained with measurements in polar firn

The budgets of seven halogenated gases (CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-114, CFC-115, CCl4 and SF6) are studied by comparing measurements in polar firn air from two Arctic and three Antarctic sites, and simulation results of two numerical models: a 2-D atmospheric chemistry model and a 1-D firn diffusion model. The first one is used to calculate atmospheric concentrations from emission trends based on industrial inventories; the calculated concentration trends are used by the second one to produce depth concentration profiles in the firn. The 2-D atmospheric model is validated in the boundary layer by comparison with atmospheric station measurements, and vertically for CFC-12 by comparison with balloon and FTIR measurements. Firn air measurements provide constraints on historical atmospheric concentrations over the last century. Age distributions in the firn are discussed using a Green function approach. Finally, our results are used as input to a radiative model in order to evaluate the radiative forcing of our target gases. Multi-species and multi-site firn air studies allow to better constrain atmospheric trends. The low concentrations of all studied gases at the bottom of the firn, and their consistency with our model results confirm that their natural sources are small. Our results indicate that the emissions, sinks and trends of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-115 and SF6 are well constrained, whereas it is not the case for CFC-114 and CCl4. Significant emission-dependent changes in the lifetimes of halocarbons destroyed in the stratosphere were obtained. Those result from the time needed for their transport from the surface where they are emitted to the stratosphere where they are destroyed. Efforts should be made to update and reduce the large uncertainties on CFC lifetimes.