Laura Thornhill, 15 year old from Redondo Beach California, at skateboarding competition at Nassau Coliseum, NY

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Laura Thornhill-Champion skateboarder during Competition at Nassau Coliseum, NY

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

The effects of drugs, ions, and poly-l-lysine on the excretory system of Schistosoma mansoni

We have been able to label the excretory system of cercariae and all forms of schistosomula, immature and adult worms with the highly fluorescent dye resorufin. We have shown that the accumulation of the resorufin into the excretory tubules and collecting ducts of the male adult worm depends on the presence of extracellular calcium and phosphate ions. In the adult male worms, praziquantel (PZQ) prevents this accumulation in RPMI medium and disperses resorufin from tubules which have been prelabelled. Female worms and all other developmental stages are much less affected either by the presence of calcium and phosphate ions, or the disruption caused by PZQ. The male can inhibit the excretory system in paired female. Fluorescent PZQ localises in the posterior gut (intestine) region of the male adult worm, but not in the excretory system, except for the anionic carboxy fluorescein derivative of PZQ, which may be excreted by this route. All stages of the parasite can recover from damage by PZQ treatment in vitro. The excretory system is highly sensitive to damage to the surface membrane and may be involved in vesicle movement and damage repair processes. In vivo the adult parasite does not recover from PZQ treatment, but what is inhibiting recovery is unknown, but likely to be related to immune effector molecules.

Uptake of macromolecules by cercariae during skin penetration and transformation to schistosomula (Schistosoma mansoni)

Here, we observed the uptake of membrane-impermeant molecules by cercariae as they penetrate the skin and are transformed into schistosomula. We propose that membrane-impermeant molecules, Lucifer Yellow, Propidium iodide and Hoechst 33258 enter the parasite through both thenephridiopore and the surface membrane and then diffuse throughout the body of the parasite. We present a hypothesis that the internal cells of the body of the schistosomulum represent a new host-parasite interface, at which skin-derived growth factors may stimulate receptors on internal membranes during transformation of the cercariae into the schistosomulum.

Support for a colleague

As collaborators of Anders Pape Møller, we were shocked and surprised to read that he was accused of data fabrication ("Ecologists roiled by misconduct case," G. Vogel, F. Proffitt, R. Stone, News of the Week, 30 Jan., p. 606). We have never had cause to be concerned about any aspect of our collaborations with Møller. He is an amazing scientist, and his great organizational skills are a model for how to be productive in the face of competing time demands. Most of us are capable of much more than we actually accomplish, but we lack the dedication and self-discipline to follow through like Anders Møller. This is the secret of his phenomenal effectiveness that has been so puzzling to the scientific community. His achievements may have caused negative responses from some of his competitors. We would like to see a full, objective, and independent inquiry into the allegations. Our experience tells us that Anders Møller has an exceptionally complete focus on any task at hand, be it fieldwork, data analysis, or paper writing; this, combined with more than a little natural talent, is sufficient to explain his exceptional productivity. We have worked with him on a variety of projects, including collecting data, sometimes under arduous conditions, and in all our dealings with him, his behavior has been beyond reproach. We would ask colleagues to restrain from further public condemnation until such time as any allegations have been proven beyond doubt.

Percepción de pacientes mayores de 65 años o cuidadores sobre el posoperatorio de fractura de cadera y su recuperación funcional

Introducción: La fractura de cadera se presenta predominantemente en población mayor; se espera que para el año 2050 se presenten alrededor de 6 millones de fracturas de cadera a nivel global. Parkkari et al (1). Dado que el sistema de salud colombiano dificulta el seguimiento adecuado de los pacientes y su manejo posoperatorio integral, desconocen las estadísticas reales de los desenlaces funcionales, mortalidad y complicaciones asociadas a la fractura de cadera. Método: Estudio observacional descriptivo de corte transversal. Mediante una encuesta telefónica cuyo objetivo fue determinar el manejo intra y extra hospitalario por los servicios de rehabilitación y ortopedia, describir la mortalidad y la recuperación funcional percibidos por los encuestados. Resultados: De 286 pacientes intervenidos, 116 aceptaron participar (24% hombres y 76% mujeres). Edades entre 65 y 99 años (media: 81.3 años). En el primer año después de la cirugía, el 29% de los pacientes presento al menos un reingreso hospitalario; la mortalidad en el grupo femenino fue de 23% frente a un 43% en el grupo masculino. El 98% de los pacientes deambulaba previo a la cirugía, frente a un 78% de los pacientes a un año del procedimiento, 83 pacientes refirieron complicaciones pos-operatorias. En el grupo entre 65 y 74 años la capacidad de deambular posterior al procedimiento fue de 84%, para las edades entre 75 a 84 años fue del 82% y en los mayores de 85 años del 75%. Conclusiones: La recuperación funcional de los pacientes intervenidos por fractura de cadera, difícilmente llegan a alcanzar el estado funcional previo a la fractura, lo cual se traduce en situaciones de dependencia, riesgo de caída y complicaciones médicas.

Progress on “Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability”

The task of assessing the likelihood and extent of coastal flooding is hampered by the lack of detailed information on near-shore bathymetry. This is required as an input for coastal inundation models, and in some cases the variability in the bathymetry can impact the prediction of those areas likely to be affected by flooding in a storm. The constant monitoring and data collection that would be required to characterise the near-shore bathymetry over large coastal areas is impractical, leaving the option of running morphodynamic models to predict the likely bathymetry at any given time. However, if the models are inaccurate the errors may be significant if incorrect bathymetry is used to predict possible flood risks. This project is assessing the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the predictions from a simple model, by rigorously incorporating observations of the bathymetry into the model, to bring the model closer to the actual situation. Currently we are concentrating on Morecambe Bay as a primary study site, as it has a highly dynamic inter-tidal zone, with changes in the course of channels in this zone impacting the likely locations of flooding from storms. We are working with SAR images, LiDAR, and swath bathymetry to give us the observations over a 2.5 year period running from May 2003 – November 2005. We have a LiDAR image of the entire inter-tidal zone for November 2005 to use as validation data. We have implemented a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, to investigate the improvements in performance of the data assimilation compared to the previous scheme which was based on the optimal interpolation method. We are currently evaluating these different data assimilation techniques, using 22 SAR data observations. We will also include the LiDAR data and swath bathymetry to improve the observational coverage, and investigate the impact of different types of observation on the predictive ability of the model. We are also assessing the ability of the data assimilation scheme to recover the correct bathymetry after storm events, which can dramatically change the bathymetry in a short period of time.

Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling

Data assimilation is predominantly used for state estimation; combining observational data with model predictions to produce an updated model state that most accurately approximates the true system state whilst keeping the model parameters fixed. This updated model state is then used to initiate the next model forecast. Even with perfect initial data, inaccurate model parameters will lead to the growth of prediction errors. To generate reliable forecasts we need good estimates of both the current system state and the model parameters. This paper presents research into data assimilation methods for morphodynamic model state and parameter estimation. First, we focus on state estimation and describe implementation of a three dimensional variational(3D-Var) data assimilation scheme in a simple 2D morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay, UK. The assimilation of observations of bathymetry derived from SAR satellite imagery and a ship-borne survey is shown to significantly improve the predictive capability of the model over a 2 year run. Here, the model parameters are set by manual calibration; this is laborious and is found to produce different parameter values depending on the type and coverage of the validation dataset. The second part of this paper considers the problem of model parameter estimation in more detail. We explain how, by employing the technique of state augmentation, it is possible to use data assimilation to estimate uncertain model parameters concurrently with the model state. This approach removes inefficiencies associated with manual calibration and enables more effective use of observational data. We outline the development of a novel hybrid sequential 3D-Var data assimilation algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation and demonstrate its efficacy using an idealised 1D sediment transport model. The results of this study are extremely positive and suggest that there is great potential for the use of data assimilation-based state-parameter estimation in coastal morphodynamic modelling.

Integration of a 3D Variational data assimilation scheme with a coastal area morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay

This paper describes the implementation of a 3D variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a morphodynamic model applied to Morecambe Bay, UK. A simple decoupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model is combined with a data assimilation scheme to investigate the ability of such methods to improve the accuracy of the predicted bathymetry. The inverse forecast error covariance matrix is modelled using a Laplacian approximation which is calibrated for the length scale parameter required. Calibration is also performed for the Soulsby-van Rijn sediment transport equations. The data used for assimilation purposes comprises waterlines derived from SAR imagery covering the entire period of the model run, and swath bathymetry data collected by a ship-borne survey for one date towards the end of the model run. A LiDAR survey of the entire bay carried out in November 2005 is used for validation purposes. The comparison of the predictive ability of the model alone with the model-forecast-assimilation system demonstrates that using data assimilation significantly improves the forecast skill. An investigation of the assimilation of the swath bathymetry as well as the waterlines demonstrates that the overall improvement is initially large, but decreases over time as the bathymetry evolves away from that observed by the survey. The result of combining the calibration runs into a pseudo-ensemble provides a higher skill score than for a single optimized model run. A brief comparison of the Optimal Interpolation assimilation method with the 3D-Var method shows that the two schemes give similar results.