The theory of complexity adapted to international relations: the behaviour of the visegrad-ukraine complex adaptive system since November 2013

La teoría de la complejidad, propia del estudio de fenómenos relativos a las ciencias naturales, se muestra como un marco alternativo para comprender los eventos emergentes que surgen en el sistema internacional. Esta monografía correlaciona el lenguaje de la complejidad con las relaciones internacionales, enfocándose en la relación Visegrad—Ucrania, ya que ha sido escenario de una serie de eventos emergentes e inesperados desde las protestas civiles de noviembre de 2013 en Kiev. El sistema complejo que existe entre el Grupo Visegrad y Ucrania se ve , desde entonces, en la necesidad de adaptarse ante los recurrentes eventos emergentes y de auto organizarse. De ese modo, podrá comportarse en concordancia con escenarios impredecibles, particularmente en lo relacionado con sus interacciones energéticas y sus interconexiones políticas.

Rudiments of complexity theory for scientists and engineers

Complexity theory is an important and growing area in computer science that has caught the imagination of many researchers in mathematics, physics and biology. In order to reach out to a large section of scientists and engineers, the paper introduces elementary concepts in complexity theory in a informal manner, motivating the reader with many examples.

Theory of mind and relational complexity

Cognitive complexity and control theory and relational complexity theory attribute developmental changes in theory of mind (TOM) to complexity. In 3 studies, 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds performed TOM tasks (false belief, appearance-reality), less complex connections (Level 1 perspective-taking) tasks, and transformations tasks (understanding the effects of location changes and colored filters) with content similar to TOM. There were also predictor tasks at binary-relational and ternary-relational complexity levels, with different content. Consistent with complexity theories: (a) connections and transformations were easier and mastered earlier than TOM; (b) predictor tasks accounted for more than 80% of age-related variance in TOM; and (c) ternary-relational items accounted for TOM variance, before and after controlling for age and binary-relational items. Prediction did not require hierarchically structured predictor tasks.

Caveat Fractal: Dissecting the Body of Indexing Theory, Uncovering Complexity, and Moving Toward Performativity

Research poster about indexing theory

A model of project complexity : distinguishing dimensions of complexity from severity

There is increasing agreement that understanding complexity is important for project management because of difficulties associated with decision-making and goal attainment which appear to stem from complexity. However the current operational definitions of complex projects, based upon size and budget, have been challenged and questions have been raised about how complexity can be measured in a robust manner that takes account of structural, dynamic and interaction elements. Thematic analysis of data from 25 in-depth interviews of project managers involved with complex projects, together with an exploration of the literature reveals a wide range of factors that may contribute to project complexity. We argue that these factors contributing to project complexity may define in terms of dimensions, or source characteristics, which are in turn subject to a range of severity factors. In addition to investigating definitions and models of complexity from the literature and in the field, this study also explores the problematic issues of ‘measuring’ or assessing complexity. A research agenda is proposed to further the investigation of phenomena reported in this initial study.

A conceptualization of complexity in IS-driven organizational transformations

Organizational transformations reliant on successful ICT system developments (continue to) fail to deliver projected benefits even when contemporary governance models are applied rigorously. Modifications to traditional program, project and systems development management methods have produced little material improvement to successful transformation as they are unable to routinely address the complexity and uncertainty of dynamic alignment of IS investments and innovation. Complexity theory provides insight into why this phenomenon occurs and is used to develop a conceptualization of complexity in IS-driven organizational transformations. This research-in-progress aims to identify complexity formulations relevant to organizational transformation. Political/power based influences, interrelated business rules, socio-technical innovation, impacts on stakeholders and emergent behaviors are commonly considered as characterizing complexity while the proposed conceptualization accommodates these as connectivity, irreducibility, entropy and/or information gain in hierarchically approximation and scaling, number of states in a finite automata and/or dimension of attractor, and information and/or variety.

Ongoing Adaptation as a Feature of Complexity : Further Thoughts and Possible Ideas for Pedagogy in Physical Activity

This chapter takes as its central premise the human capacity to adapt to changing environments. It is an idea that is central to complexity theory but receives only modest attention in relation to learning. To do this we will draw from a range of fields and then consider some recent research in motor control that may extend the discussion in ways not yet considered, but that will build on advances already made within pedagogy and motor control synergies. Recent work in motor control indicates that humans have far greater capacity to adapt to the ‘product space’ than was previously thought, mainly through fast heuristics and on-line corrections. These are changes that can be made in real (movement) time and are facilitated by what are referred to as ‘feed-forward’ mechanisms that take advantage of ultra-fast ways of recognizing the likely outcomes of our movements and using this as a source of feedback. We conclude by discussing some possible ideas for pedagogy within the sport and physical activity domains, the implications of which would require a rethink on how motor skill learning opportunities might best be facilitated.

Contributions to the Theory of Finite-State Based Grammars

This dissertation is a theoretical study of finite-state based grammars used in natural language processing. The study is concerned with certain varieties of finite-state intersection grammars (FSIG) whose parsers define regular relations between surface strings and annotated surface strings. The study focuses on the following three aspects of FSIGs: (i) Computational complexity of grammars under limiting parameters In the study, the computational complexity in practical natural language processing is approached through performance-motivated parameters on structural complexity. Each parameter splits some grammars in the Chomsky hierarchy into an infinite set of subset approximations. When the approximations are regular, they seem to fall into the logarithmic-time hierarchyand the dot-depth hierarchy of star-free regular languages. This theoretical result is important and possibly relevant to grammar induction. (ii) Linguistically applicable structural representations Related to the linguistically applicable representations of syntactic entities, the study contains new bracketing schemes that cope with dependency links, left- and right branching, crossing dependencies and spurious ambiguity. New grammar representations that resemble the Chomsky-Schützenberger representation of context-free languages are presented in the study, and they include, in particular, representations for mildly context-sensitive non-projective dependency grammars whose performance-motivated approximations are linear time parseable. (iii) Compilation and simplification of linguistic constraints Efficient compilation methods for certain regular operations such as generalized restriction are presented. These include an elegant algorithm that has already been adopted as the approach in a proprietary finite-state tool. In addition to the compilation methods, an approach to on-the-fly simplifications of finite-state representations for parse forests is sketched. These findings are tightly coupled with each other under the theme of locality. I argue that the findings help us to develop better, linguistically oriented formalisms for finite-state parsing and to develop more efficient parsers for natural language processing. Avainsanat: syntactic parsing, finite-state automata, dependency grammar, first-order logic, linguistic performance, star-free regular approximations, mildly context-sensitive grammars

Statistical theory of finite Fermi systems with chaotic excited eigenstates

A theory of strongly interacting Fermi systems of a few particles is developed. At high excit at ion energies (a few times the single-parti cle level spacing) these systems are characterized by an extreme degree of complexity due to strong mixing of the shell-model-based many-part icle basis st at es by the residual two- body interaction. This regime can be described as many-body quantum chaos. Practically, it occurs when the excitation energy of the system is greater than a few single-particle level spacings near the Fermi energy. Physical examples of such systems are compound nuclei, heavy open shell atoms (e.g. rare earths) and multicharged ions, molecules, clusters and quantum dots in solids. The main quantity of the theory is the strength function which describes spreading of the eigenstates over many-part icle basis states (determinants) constructed using the shell-model orbital basis. A nonlinear equation for the strength function is derived, which enables one to describe the eigenstates without diagonalization of the Hamiltonian matrix. We show how to use this approach to calculate mean orbital occupation numbers and matrix elements between chaotic eigenstates and introduce typically statistical variable s such as t emperature in an isolated microscopic Fermi system of a few particles.

Preparing to prescribe: How do clerkship students learn in the midst of complexity?

Prescribing tasks, which involve pharmacological knowledge, clinical decision-making and practical skill, take place within unpredictable social environments and involve interactions within and between endlessly changing health care teams. Despite this, curriculum designers commonly assume them to be simple to learn and perform. This research used mixed methods to explore how undergraduate medical students learn to prescribe in the 'real world'. It was informed by cognitive psychology, sociocultural theory, and systems thinking. We found that learning to prescribe occurs as a dynamic series of socially negotiated interactions within and between individuals, communities and environments. As well as a thematic analysis, we developed a framework of three conceptual spaces in which learning opportunities for prescribing occur. This illustrates a complex systems view of prescribing education and defines three major system components: the "social space", where the environmental conditions influence or bring about a learning experience; the "process space", describing what happens during the learning experience; and the intra-personal "cognitive space", where the learner may develop aspects of prescribing expertise. This conceptualisation broadens the scope of inquiry of prescribing education research by highlighting the complex interplay between individual and social dimensions of learning. This perspective is also likely to be relevant to students' learning of other clinical competencies.

Construction management strategies : a theory of construction management

The construction industry has become a truly global network of interconnected stakeholders making demands which require the involvement of skilled workforces from all over the world. Construction Management Strategies sets the foundations for understanding and managing construction’s inherent complexity and uniqueness. It establishes clear definitions of commonly accepted terms like built environment, construction, civil engineering, etc. which are often given confusing and conflicting interpretations. It cuts through the plethora of overlapping role titles currently used in the construction sector that make it difficult to establish how projects are actually managed.

Another Waltz? Methodological rhetoric and practice in theory of international politics

Although Theory of International Politics is a standard-bearer for explanatory theory in international relations (IR), Waltz’s methodology has been subject to numerous quite disparate analyses. One reason why it has proved hard to pin down is that too little attention has been paid to how, in practice, Waltz approaches real-world problems. Despite his neopositivist rhetoric, Waltz applies neorealism in a notably loose, even indeterminate, fashion. There is therefore a disjunction between what he says and what he does. This is partly explained by his unsatisfactory attempt to reconcile his avowed neopositivism with his belief that international politics is characterized by organized complexity. The inconsistencies thus created also help to make sense of why competing interpretations of his methodology have emerged. Some aspects of his work do point beyond these particular methodological travails in ways that will continue to be of interest to IR theorists, but its most enduring methodological lesson may be that rhetoric and practice do not necessarily fit harmoniously together.

Models of complexity in Robert Coover's John's wife and the adventures of Lucky Pierre

This doctoral dissertation analyzes two novels by the American novelist Robert Coover as examples of hypertextual writing on the book bound page, as tokens of hyperfiction. The complexity displayed in the novels, John's Wife and The Adventures of Lucky Pierre, integrates the cultural elements that characterize the contemporary condition of capitalism and technologized practices that have fostered a different subjectivity evidenced in hypertextual writing and reading, the posthuman subjectivity. The models that account for the complexity of each novel are drawn from the concept of strange attractors in Chaos Theory and from the concept of rhizome in Nomadology. The transformations the characters undergo in the degree of their corporeality sets the plane on which to discuss turbulence and posthumanity. The notions of dynamic patterns and strange attractors, along with the concept of the Body without Organs and Rhizome are interpreted, leading to the revision of narratology and to analytical categories appropriate to the study of the novels. The reading exercised throughout this dissertation enacts Daniel Punday's corporeal reading. The changes in the characters' degree of materiality are associated with the stages of order, turbulence and chaos in the story, bearing on the constitution of subjectivity within and along the reading process. Coover's inscription of planes of consistency to counter linearity and accommodate hypertextual features to the paper supported narratives describes the characters' trajectory as rhizomatic. The study led to the conclusion that narrative today stands more as a regime in a rhizomatic relation with other regimes in cultural practice than as an exclusively literary form and genre. Besides this, posthuman subjectivity emerges as class identity, holding hypertextual novels as their literary form of choice.

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.