A parametric duration model of the reaction times of drivers distracted by mobile phone conversations

The use of mobile phones while driving is more prevalent among young drivers—a less experienced cohort with elevated crash risk. The objective of this study was to examine and better understand the reaction times of young drivers to a traffic event originating in their peripheral vision whilst engaged in a mobile phone conversation. The CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator was used to test a sample of young drivers on various simulated driving tasks, including an event that originated within the driver’s peripheral vision, whereby a pedestrian enters a zebra crossing from a sidewalk. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The participants were 21 to 26 years old and split evenly by gender. Drivers’ reaction times to a pedestrian in the zebra crossing were modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) duration model with a Weibull distribution. Also tested where two different model specifications to account for the structured heterogeneity arising from the repeated measures experimental design. The Weibull AFT model with gamma heterogeneity was found to be the best fitting model and identified four significant variables influencing the reaction times, including phone condition, driver’s age, license type (Provisional license holder or not), and self-reported frequency of usage of handheld phones while driving. The reaction times of drivers were more than 40% longer in the distracted condition compared to baseline (not distracted). Moreover, the impairment of reaction times due to mobile phone conversations was almost double for provisional compared to open license holders. A reduction in the ability to detect traffic events in the periphery whilst distracted presents a significant and measurable safety concern that will undoubtedly persist unless mitigated.

Coverage of international and Pacific news in the Fiji Times and The Australian

The debate over the nature and flow of international news has dominated intellectual debate about journalism practice for some time. Developing countries argued there was an imbalance in the nature and amount of international news concerning them. They argued that the Western media rarely reported on developing countries and when they did, reported predominantly negative news about developing countries. The debate led to calls for a New World Information and Communication Order (NWICO). A number of studies examined its arguments, many finding developing countries were indeed disadvantaged by the Western media. This study compared foreign news coverage in The Australian and The Fiji Times, with special attention on news from the Pacific Islands region. It found the coverage of the Pacific Islands was still grossly inadequate in both newspapers. The coverage consisted of only a small number of stories, which were predominantly negative, surprising especially in the case of The Fiji Times.

Suspended particulate matter fluxes through the Straits of Dover, English Channel: observations and modelling

Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) concentrations at various levels within the water column, together with salinity and temperature, were measured using water samples collected from six stations across the Straits of Dover. The sampling programme covered a 16-month period, undertaken during 23 cruises. On the basis of the spatial variability in the concentrations, the water bodies are divided by several boundaries, controlled by tidal and wind conditions. Within the water column, SPM concentrations were higher near the sea bed than in the surface waters. Throughout the cross-section, maximum concentrations occurred adjacent to the coastlines. Temporal variability in the SPM concentration exists on daily and seasonal scales within the coastal waters (4.2 to 74.5 mg L-1): resuspension processes, in response to semi-diurnal tidal cycles (with a period of around 12.4 h) and spring-neap cycles (with a period of 15 days) make significant contributions. Distinctive seasonal/annual concentration changes have also been observed. In the offshore waters, such variability is much less significant (0.9 to 6.0 mg L-1). In the summer the English Coastal Zone is associated with relatively high SPM concentrations: the Central Zone has a low and stable SPM concentration between these zones, there is a Transitional Zone, where there is a rapid response of SPM concentration to wind forcing. Finally, the French Coastal Zone is characterized by variable (sometimes high) SPM concentrations. Because of the zonation, SPM fluxes within the Dover Strait are controlled by different transport mechanisms. Within the Central Zone, the flux can be represented by the product of mean water discharges and SPM concentrations. However, within the coastal zones fluctuations in SPM concentrations on various time-scales must be considered. In order to calculate the maximum and minimum SPM fluxes, 10 cells were divided in the strait. A simple modelling calculation has been proposed for this complex area. The effect of spring-neap tidal cycles and seasonal changes can contribute significantly to the overall flux, which is of the order of 20 x 10(6) t.yr(-1) (through the Dover Strait, towards the North Sea). Such an estimate is higher than most obtained previously. (C) 2000 Ifremer/CNRS/IRD/Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS.

Authority Now and in the Old Times

sermon text; MS Word document

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Mapping the End Times:American Evangelical Geopolitics and Apocalyptic Visions

Over the last quarter-century, evangelicalism has become an important social and political force in modern America. Here, new voices in the field are brought together with leading scholars such as William E. Connolly, Michael Barkun, Simon Dalby, and Paul Boyer to produce a timely examination of the spatial dimensions of the movement, offering useful and compelling insights on the intersection between politics and religion. This comprehensive study discusses evangelicalism in its different forms, from the moderates to the would-be theocrats who, in anticipation of the Rapture, seek to impose their interpretations of the Bible upon American foreign policy. The result is a unique appraisal of the movement and its geopolitical visions, and the wider impact of these on America and the world at large.

Letter with the salutation “Dear Sir” It is signed by John I. Mackenzie in which he states that he got the Globe to publish a letter about the Long Point expats which had been sent to the Ottawa Times

Letter with the salutation “Dear Sir” It is signed by John I. Mackenzie in which he states that he got the Globe to publish a letter about the Long Point expats which had been sent to the Ottawa Times. Most of the handwriting is illegible, Oct. 26, 1870.

Rich and famous: recognition-based judgment in the Sunday Times rich list

Recognition as a cue to judgment in a novel, multi-option domain (the Sunday Times Rich List) is explored. As in previous studies, participants were found to make use of name recognition as a cue to the presumed wealth of individuals. Names that were recognized were judged to be the richest name from amongst the set presented at above chance levels. This effect persisted across situations in which more than one name was recognized; recognition was used as an inclusion criterion for the sub-set of names to be considered the richest of the set presented. However, when the question was reversed, and a “poorest” judgment was required, use of recognition as an exclusion criterion was observed only when a single name was recognized. Reaction times when making these judgments also show a distinction between “richest” and “poorest” questions with recognition of none of the options taking the longest time to judge in the “richest” question condition and full recognition of all the names presented taking longest to judge in the “poorest” question condition. Implications for decision-making using simple heuristics are discussed.

Estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival using a multistate model for the sojourn times

In clinical trials, it may be of interest taking into account physical and emotional well-being in addition to survival when comparing treatments. Quality-adjusted survival time has the advantage of incorporating information about both survival time and quality-of-life. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models for the sojourn times in health states. Semiparametric and parametric (with exponential distribution) approaches are considered. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to compute bias and variance of the estimator. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

European business schools and global leadership: an examination of the admission criteria of the european master in management programs ranked by the Financial Times 2010

O aumento de empresas que operam internacionalmente requer o desenvolvimento de líderes mundiais para colocar as estratégias em prática. Embora este processo de desenvolvimento é importante para o mundo corporativo, muitos futuros executivos são graduados de escolas de administração de empresas que estão intimamente ligados ao mundo de negócios e, portanto, desempenhão um papel importante no processo. Esta pesquisa examina se os programas europeus “Master in Management” classificado pelo Financial Times em 2010 selecionam aqueles candidatos que são mais adequados para o desenvolvimento de liderança global. Portanto, três anteriores meta-estudos são sintetizados para produzir um perfil de competências classificadas de um líder global. Então, informações sobre os critérios de admissão dos programas de mestrado são coletadas e comparadas com este perfil. Os resultados mostram que seis competências são medidas por mais da metade dos programas: proficiência em Inglês, capacidade analítica (racionamento lógico e quantitativo), capacidade de comunicação, conhecimento do negócio global, determinação para alcançar, motivação e capacidade interpessoal. Além disso, as habilidades operacionais requerentes pelos líderes globais não são significativas no processo de admissão e o foco é sobre as habilidades analíticas. Comparação dos resultados com o perfil anteriormente desenvolvido abrangente indica que uma quantidade significativa de programas pode subestimar o significado de habilidades pessoais e características para o desenvolvimento de líderes globais.