Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

Evolution and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Pliocene: Evidence from clay mineral records of the South China Sea

The Late Pliocene is thought to be characterized by the simultaneous intensification of both the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, the evolution of the EASM during the Pliocene remains still controversial and only little is known about the dynamics of the EASM during the Pliocene on orbital time scales. Here we use clay mineral assemblages in sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea (SCS) to obtain proxy records of past changes in the EASM climate during the Pliocene. Provenance analysis suggests that illite, chlorite and kaolinite originated mainly from the Mekong River drainage area. Smectite was derived mainly from the Indonesian islands. The kaolinite/illite ratio and the chemical index of alteration (CIA) of siliciclastic sediments allowed us to reconstruct the history of chemical weathering and physical erosion of the Mekong River drainage area and thus, the evolution of,the EASM during the Pliocene. Our clay minerals proxy data suggests a stronger EASM during the Early Pliocene than during the Late Pliocene. We propose that the long-term evolution of the EASM has been driven by global cooling rather than the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. Spectral analysis of kaolinite/ illite ratio displays a set of strong periodicities at 100 ka, 30 ka, 28 ka, 25 ka, and 22 ka. with no clear obliquityrelated signal. Our study suggests that the Pliocene EASM intensity on orbital time scales is not only controlled by the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, but also strongly influenced by equatorial Pacific ENSO-like ocean atmosphere dynamics. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of the East Asian summer monsoon: Evidence from the sediment record in the South China Sea since 8.5 Ma

128 samples from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea were analyzed for grain size, clay minerals, biogenic opal content and quartz in order to reconstruct changes in East Asian monsoon climate since 8.5 Ma. An abrupt change of terrigenous mass accumulation rate (MAR), clay mineral assemblage, median grain size and biogenic opal MAR about 5.2 Ma suggests that between 8.5-5.2 Ma the source of terrigenous sediment was mainly in the region of surface uplift and basaltic volcanism in southern Vietnam. A simple model of East Asian summer monsoon evolution was based on the clay/feldspar ratio, kaolinite/chlorite ratio and biogenic opal MAR. The summer monsoon has two periods of maximum strength at 8.5-7.6 Ma and 7.1-6.2 Ma. Subsequently, there was a relatively stable period at 6.2-3.5 Ma, continued intensification about 3.5-2.5 Ma, and gradually weakening after 2.5 Ma. Since I Ma the monsoon has intensified, with remarkable high-frequency and amplitude variability. Simultaneous increase in sedimentation rates at ODP Sites 1143, 1146 and 1148, as well as in MAR of terrigenous materials, quartz, feldspar and clay minerals at ODP Site 1143 at 3.5-2.5 Ma, may be the erosional response to both global climatic deterioration and the strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon after about 3-4 Ma. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian summer monsoon

The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon) is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM). Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2) and black carbon (BC) emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO2 or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon) due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation are different for sulphate and black carbon experiments. This study demonstrates a mechanism that links regional aerosol emission changes to the precipitation changes of the EASM, and it could be applied to help understand the future changes in EASM precipitation in CMIP5 simulations.

Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1–40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land–sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Asia and low SLP anomalies over the WNP, associated with a weakened EASM. In response to emissions from both regions warming and moistening over the WNP plays an important role and determines the time scale of the response.

Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall impacts the world's most populous regions. Accurate EASM rainfall prediction necessitates robust paleoclimate reconstructions from proxy data and quantitative linkage to modern climatic conditions. Many precisely dated oxygen isotope records from Chinese stalagmites have been interpreted as directly reflecting past EASM rainfall amount variability, but recent research suggests that such records instead integrate multiple hydroclimatic processes. Using a Lagrangian precipitation moisture source diagnostic, we demonstrate that EASM rainfall is primarily derived from the Indian Ocean. Conversely, Pacific Ocean moisture export peaks during winter, and the moisture uptake area does not differ significantly between summer and winter and is thus a minor contributor to monsoonal precipitation. Our results are substantiated by an accurate reproduction of summer and winter spatial rainfall distributions across China. We also correlate modern EASM rainfall oxygen isotope ratios with instrumental rainfall amount and our moisture source data. This analysis reveals that the strength of the source effect is geographically variable, and differences in atmospheric moisture transport may significantly impact the isotopic signature of EASM rainfall at the Hulu, Dongge, and Wanxiang Cave sites. These results improve our ability to isolate the rainfall amount signal in paleomonsoon reconstructions and indicate that precipitation across central and eastern China will directly respond to variability in Indian Ocean moisture supply.

Coherence between solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon variability in the past 8000 years from Yangtze River-derived mud in the East China Sea

AMS(14)C dating and grain-size analysis for Core PC-6, located in the middle of a mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea (ECS), were used to rebuild the Holocene history of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The 7.5-m core recorded the history of environmental changes during the postglacial transgression. The core's mud section (the upper 450 cm) has been formed mainly by suspended sediment delivered from the Yangtze River mouth by the ECS Winter Coastal Current (ECSWCC) since 7.6 kyr BP. Using a mathematical method called "grain size vs. standard deviatioW', we can divide the Core PC-6's grain-size distribution into two populations at about 28 mu m. The fine population (< 28 mu m) is considered to be transported by the ECSWCC as suspended loads. Content of the fine population changes little and represents a stable sedimentary environment in accord with the present situation. Thus, variation of mean grain-size from the fine population would reflect the strength of ECSWCC, which is mainly controlled by the East Asian winter monsoon. Abrupt increasing mean grain size in the mud section is inferred to be transported by sudden strengthened ECSWCC, which was caused by the strengthened EAWM. Thus, the high resolution mean grain-size variation might serve as a proxy for reconstruction of the EAWM. A good correlation between sunspot change and the mean grain-size of suspended fine population suggests that one of the primary controls on centennial- to decadal-scale changes of the EAWM in the past 8 ka is the variations of sun irradiance, i.e., the EAWM will increase in intensity when the number of sunspots decreases. Spectral analyses of the mean grain-size time series of Core PC-6 show statistically significant periodicities centering on 2463, 1368, 128, 106, 100, 88-91, 7678, and 70-72 years. The EAWM and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) agree with each other well on these cycles, and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and the Indian Monsoon also share in concurrent cycles in Holocene, which are in accord with the changes of the sun irradiance. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrological Response of East China to the Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon

Copyright © 2016 Fuxing Li et al.The sensitivity of hydrologic variables in East China, that is, runoff, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture to the fluctuation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), is evaluated by the Mann-Kendall correlation analysis on a spatial resolution of 1/4° in the period of 1952-2012. The results indicate remarkable spatial disparities in the correlation between the hydrologic variables and EASM. The regions in East China susceptible to hydrological change due to EASM fluctuation are identified. When the standardized anomaly of intensity index of EASM (EASMI) is above 1.00, the runoff of Haihe basin has increased by 49% on average, especially in the suburb of Beijing and Hebei province where the runoff has increased up to 105%. In contrast, the runoff in the basins of Haihe and Yellow River has decreased by about 27% and 17%, respectively, when the standardized anomaly of EASMI is below -1.00, which has brought severe drought to the areas since mid-1970s. The study can be beneficial for national or watershed agencies developing adaptive water management strategies in the face of global climate change.

Records of the East Asian winter monsoon from the mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea since the mid-Holocene

AMS(14)C dating and analysis of grain size, major elements and clay minerals were applied to Core MZ01 from the mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea. Based on the environmentally sensitive grain size, clay mineral and major element assemblages, the history of the East Asia winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene could be reconstructed. These three proxies, mean grain size (>9.71 mu m), chemical index of alteration (CIA) and ratio of smectite to kaolinite in particular, show similar fluctuation patterns. Furthermore, 10 extreme values corresponding to the contemporary cooling events could be recognized since the mid-Holocene; these extreme values are likely to have been caused by the strengthening of the East Asia winter monsoon. The cooling events correlated well with the results of the delta O-18 curves of the Dunde ice core and GISP2, which therefore revealed a regional response to global climate change. Four stages of the East Asia winter monsoon were identified, i.e. 8300-6300 a BP, strong and unstable; 6300-3800 a BP, strong but stable; 3800-1400 a BP, weak and unstable; after 1400 a BP, weak but stable.

On the long-term interannual variability of the east Asian winter monsoon

The East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and Siberian High (SH) are inherently related, based on prior studies of instrumental data available for recent decades (since 1958). Here we develop an extended instrumental EAWM index since 1871 that correlates significantly with the SH. These two indices show common modes of variation on the biennial (2-3 year) time scale. We also develop an index of the pressure gradient between the SH and the Aleutian Low, a gradient which critically impacts EAWM variability. This difference series, based on tree-ring reconstructions of the SH and the North Pacific Index (NPI) over the past 400 years, shows that the weakening of this gradient in recent decades has not been unusual in a long-term context. Correlations between the SH series and a tree-ring reconstruction of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggest a variable tropical-higher latitude teleconnection.

The effect of Arabian Sea optical properties on SST biases and the South Asian summer monsoon in a coupled GCM

This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST.

Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon

The vagaries of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall on short and long timescales impact the lives of more than one billion people. Understanding how the monsoon will change in the face of global warming is a challenge for climate science, not least because our state-of-the-art general circulation models still have difficulty simulating the regional distribution of monsoon rainfall. However, we are beginning to understand more about processes driving the monsoon, its seasonal cycle and modes of variability. This gives us the hope that we can build better models and ultimately reduce the uncertainty in our projections of future monsoon rainfall.