Optimization of test and maintenance of ageing components consisting of multiple items and addressing effectiveness

There are many models in the literature that have been proposed in the last decades aimed at assessing the reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) of safety equipment, many of them with a focus on their use to assess the risk level of a technological system or to search for appropriate design and/or surveillance and maintenance policies in order to assure that an optimum level of RAM of safety systems is kept during all the plant operational life. This paper proposes a new approach for RAM modelling that accounts for equipment ageing and maintenance and testing effectiveness of equipment consisting of multiple items in an integrated manner. This model is then used to perform the simultaneous optimization of testing and maintenance for ageing equipment consisting of multiple items. An example of application is provided, which considers a simplified High Pressure Injection System (HPIS) of a typical Power Water Reactor (PWR). Basically, this system consists of motor driven pumps (MDP) and motor operated valves (MOV), where both types of components consists of two items each. These components present different failure and cause modes and behaviours, and they also undertake complex test and maintenance activities depending on the item involved. The results of the example of application demonstrate that the optimization algorithm provide the best solutions when the optimization problem is formulated and solved considering full flexibility in the implementation of testing and maintenance activities taking part of such an integrated RAM model.

Array-CGH testing in spontaneous abortions with normal karyotypes

In about 50% of first trimester spontaneous abortion the cause remains undetermined after standard cytogenetic investigation. We evaluated the usefulness of array-CGH in diagnosing chromosome abnormalities in products of conception from first trimester spontaneous abortions. Cell culture was carried out in short- and long-term cultures of 54 specimens and cytogenetic analysis was successful in 49 of them. Cytogenetic abnormalities (numerical and structural) were detected in 22 (44.89%) specimens. Subsequent, array-CGH based on large insert clones spaced at ~1 Mb intervals over the whole genome was used in 17 cases with normal G-banding karyotype. This revealed chromosome aneuplodies in three additional cases, giving a final total of 51% cases in which an abnormal karyotype was detected. In keeping with other recently published works, this study shows that array-CGH detects abnormalities in a further ~10% of spontaneous abortion specimens considered to be normal using standard cytogenetic methods. As such, array-CGH technique may present a suitable complementary test to cytogenetic analysis in cases with a normal karyotype.

Trigeminal pain and quantitative sensory testing in painful peripheral diabetic neuropathy

Objective: To evaluate patients with Diabetes Mellitus type 2 and painful peripheral neuropathy in order to investigate oral complaints and facial somatosensory findings. Research design and methods: Case-control study; 29 patients (12 women, mean age 57.86 yo) with Diabetes Mellitus type 2 and 31 age-gender-matched controls were evaluated with a standardized protocol for general characteristics, orofacial pain, research diagnostic criteria for temporomandibular disorders, visual analogue scale and McGill Pain questionnaire, and a systematic protocol of quantitative sensory testing for bilateral facial sensitivity at the areas innervated by the trigeminal branches, which included the thermal detection by ThermoSensi 2, tactile evaluation with vonFrey filaments, and superficial pain thresholds with a superficial algometer (Micromar). Statistical analysis was performed with Wilcoxon, chi-square, confidence intervals and Spearman (p < 0.05). Results: Orofacial pain was reported by 55.2% of patients, and the most common descriptor was fatigue (50%); 17.2% had burning mouth. Myofascial temporomandibular disorders were diagnosed in 9(31%) patients. The study group showed higher sensory thresholds of pain at the right maxillary branch (p = 0.017) but sensorial differences were not associated with pain (p = 0.608). Glycemia and HbA(1c) were positively correlated with the quantitative sensory testing results of pain (p < 0.05) and cold (p = 0.044) perceptions. Higher pain thresholds were correlated with higher glycemia and glycated hemoglobin (p = 0.027 and p = 0.026). Conclusions: There was a high prevalence of orofacial pain and burning mouth was the most common complaint. The association of loss of pain sensation and higher glycemia and glycated hemoglobin can be of clinical use for the follow-up of DM complications. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A combined study of behavior and Fos expression in limbic structures after re-testing Wistar rats in the elevated plus-maze

The elevated plus-maze is an animal model used to study anxiety. In a second session, rats show a reduction in the exploratory behavior even when the two sessions are separated by intervals as large as 7 days. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the reduction in the exploratory behavior is maintained after intervals larger than 7 days. Additionally, we aimed at investigating eventual correlations between behaviors in the plus-maze and activation of limbic structures as measured by Fos protein expression after the second session. Rats were tested for 5 min in the elevated plus-maze and re-tested 3, 9 or 33 days later. Other groups were tested only once. The rat brains were processed for immunohistochemical detection of Fos protein. The results show a decrease in the open arms exploration in the second trial with intervals of 3, 9 and 33 days. The expression of Fos protein in the piriform cortex, septal nucleus and paraventricular hypothalamic nucleus in the groups tested with intervals of 9 and 33 days were statistically different from the other groups. The alterations observed in exploratory behavior in the second session in the plus-maze did not correlate with Fos expression. In conclusion, although the specific test conditions were sufficient to evoke behavioral alterations in exploration in the elevated plus-maze, they were enough to induce significant Fos protein expression in piriform cortex, septal nucleus and thalamic and hypothalamic paraventricular nuclei but not in other areas such as dorsomedial nucleus of the hypothalamus and amygdala nuclei, known to be also active participants in circuits controlling fear and anxiety. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Voluntary HIV counseling and testing during prenatal care in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Voluntary HIV counseling and testing are provided to all Brazilian pregnant women with the purpose of reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The purpose of the study was to assess characteristics of HIV testing and identify factors associated with HIV counseling and testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out comprising 1,658 mothers living in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Biological, reproductive and social variables were obtained from mothers by means of a standardized questionnaire. Being counseling about HIV testing was the dependent variable. Confidence intervals, chi-square test and hierarchical logistic model were used to determine the association between counseling and maternal variables. RESULTS: Of 1,658 mothers interviewed, 1,603 or 96.7% (95% CI: 95.7-97.5) underwent HIV testing, and 51 or 3.1% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) were not tested. Four (0.2%) refused to undergo testing after counseling. Of 51 women not tested in this study, 30 had undergone the testing previously. Of 1,603 women tested, 630 or 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9-41.7) received counseling, 947 or 59.2% (95% CI: 56.6-61.5) did not, and 26 (1.6%) did not inform. Low income, lack of prenatal care, late beginning of prenatal care, use of rapid testing, and receiving prenatal in the public sector were variables independently associated with a lower probability of getting counseling about HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed the high rate of prenatal HIV testing in Porto Alegre. However, women coming from less privileged social groups were less likely to receive information and benefit from counseling.

Barriers for HIV testing during pregnancy in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess HIV testing rate and determine risk factors for not have been tested during pregnancy. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil, from December 2000 to February 2001. Socioeconomic, maternal and healthcare variables were obtained by means of a standardized questionnaire. Crude and adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were obtained in logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total of 1,642 mothers were interviewed. Of them, 94.3% reported being offered HIV testing before or during pregnancy or during labor; 89 mothers (5.4%) were not tested or did not know if they were tested. Attending fewer than six prenatal visits, being single and younger than 18 years old were relevant barriers preventing HIV testing. There was found a relationship between maternal schooling and the category of prenatal care provider. Having low 22.20 (12.43-39.67) or high 3.38 (1.86-7.68). schooling and being cared in the private sector strongly reduced the likelihood of being HIV tested. CONCLUSIONS: The Brazilian Health Ministry's recommendation for universal counseling and HIV testing has been successfully implemented in the public sector. In order to improve HIV testing coverage, new strategies need to target women cared in the private sector especially those of low schooling.

Confidence Intervals

PowerPoint slides for Confidence Intervals. Examples are taken from the Medical Literature

Active-control trials with binary data: a comparison of methods for testing superiority or non-inferiority using the odds ratio

This paper considers methods for testing for superiority or non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data, when the relative treatment effect is expressed as an odds ratio. Three asymptotic tests for the log-odds ratio based on the unconditional binary likelihood are presented, namely the likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests. All three tests can be implemented straightforwardly in standard statistical software packages, as can the corresponding confidence intervals. Simulations indicate that the three alternatives are similar in terms of the Type I error, with values close to the nominal level. However, when the non-inferiority margin becomes large, the score test slightly exceeds the nominal level. In general, the highest power is obtained from the score test, although all three tests are similar and the observed differences in power are not of practical importance. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methods for Equivalence and Noninferiority Testing

Classical hypothesis testing focuses on testing whether treatments have differential effects on outcome. However, sometimes clinicians may be more interested in determining whether treatments are equivalent or whether one has noninferior outcomes. We review the hypotheses for these noninferiority and equivalence research questions, consider power and sample size issues, and discuss how to perform such a test for both binary and survival outcomes. The methods are illustrated on 2 recent studies in hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Extension And Testing Of A 2D Hydrodynamic Model For Direct Rainfall Runoff Simulation

While the simulation of flood risks originating from the overtopping of river banks is well covered within continuously evaluated programs to improve flood protection measures, flash flooding is not. Flash floods are triggered by short, local thunderstorm cells with high precipitation intensities. Small catchments have short response times and flow paths and convective thunder cells may result in potential flooding of endangered settlements. Assessing local flooding and pathways of flood requires a detailed hydraulic simulation of the surface runoff. Hydrological models usually do not incorporate surface runoff at this detailedness but rather empirical equations are applied for runoff detention. In return 2D hydrodynamic models usually do not allow distributed rainfall as input nor are any types of soil/surface interaction implemented as in hydrological models. Considering several cases of local flash flooding during the last years the issue emerged for practical reasons but as well as research topics to closing the model gap between distributed rainfall and distributed runoff formation. Therefore, a 2D hydrodynamic model, depth-averaged flow equations using the finite volume discretization, was extended to accept direct rainfall enabling to simulate the associated runoff formation. The model itself is used as numerical engine, rainfall is introduced via the modification of waterlevels at fixed time intervals. The paper not only deals with the general application of the software, but intends to test the numerical stability and reliability of simulation results. The performed tests are made using different artificial as well as measured rainfall series as input. Key parameters of the simulation such as losses, roughness or time intervals for water level manipulations are tested regarding their impact on the stability.

Development of a pressure nociceptive threshold testing device for evaluation of analgesics in cats

A pressure analgesiometric device was developed for unrestrained cats. Eleven cats were studied. Stimulation was via three rounded pins within a bracelet on the forearm. The pins were advanced by manual bladder inflation. Bladder pressure was measured using a strain gauge pressure transducer. The threshold was recorded at the behavioural end point. Thresholds were measured at 5 and 15 min intervals for 2-4 h, after removal/replacement of the cuff, for 120 min after SC butorphanol (0.4 mg/kg), and with mild skin inflammation at the testing site. Data were analysed using ANOVA. Pressure thresholds in untreated cats were around 150 mmHg. The minimum interval for testing was established as 15 min. Data were reproducible over 4 h and beyond 24 h. Thresholds in 5 cats increased (P < 0.05) above baseline for 45 min after butorphanol with a maximum increase of 270 +/- 182 mmHg at 10 min. Thresholds decreased with inflammation. The method appears suitable for feline analgesia investigations. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring the process mean and variance using a synthetic control chart with two-stage testing

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Brainstem auditory evoked potential testing in Dalmatian dogs in Brazil

The brain stem auditory-evoked potential (BAEP) is an electrophysiologic test that detects and records the electrical activity in the auditory system from cochlea to midbrain, generated after an acoustic stimulus applied to the external ear. The aim of this study is to obtain normative data for BAEP in Dalmatian dogs in order to apply this to the evaluation of deafness and other neurologic disorders. BAEP were recorded from 30 Dalmatian dogs for a normative Brazilian study. Mean latencies for waves I, III, and V were 1.14 (±0.09), 2.62 (±0.10), and 3.46 (±0.14) ms, respectively. Mean inter-peak latencies for I-III, III-V, and I-V intervals were 1.48 (±0.17), 0.84 (±0.12), and 2.31 (±0.18) ms, respectively. Unilateral abnormalities were found in 16.7% of animals and bilateral deafness was seen in one dog. The normative data obtained in this paper is compatible with other published data. As far as we know this is the first report of deafness occurrence in Dalmatian dogs in Brazil.

Changing epidemiology of HIV anonymous testing in Switzerland for 1996-2006

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To assess whether the prevalence of HIV positive tests in clients at five anonymous testing sites in Switzerland had increased since the end of the 1990s, and ascertain whether there had been any concurrent change in the proportions of associated risk factors. METHODS: Baseline characteristics were analysed, by groups of years, over the eleven consecutive years of data collected from the testing sites. Numbers of HIV positive tests were presented as prevalence/1000 tests performed within each category. Multivariable analyses, stratified by African nationality and risk group of heterosexuals or men who have sex with men (MSM), were done controlling simultaneously for a series of variables. Odds ratios (ORs) were reported together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). P values were calculated from likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: There was an increase in the prevalence of positive tests in African heterosexuals between 1996-1999 and 2004-2006, rising from 54.2 to 86.4/1000 and from 5.6 to 25.2/1000 in females and males respectively. The proportion of MSM who knew that one or more of their sexual partners was infected with HIV increased from 2% to 17% and the proportion who reported having more than five sexual partners in the preceding two years increased from 44% to 51%. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data from anonymous testing sites continue to provide useful information on the changing epidemiology of HIV and thus inform public health strategies against HIV.

Robust effect sizes and their confidence intervals for group difference between trajectories in hierarchical linear growth model

Hierarchical linear growth model (HLGM), as a flexible and powerful analytic method, has played an increased important role in psychology, public health and medical sciences in recent decades. Mostly, researchers who conduct HLGM are interested in the treatment effect on individual trajectories, which can be indicated by the cross-level interaction effects. However, the statistical hypothesis test for the effect of cross-level interaction in HLGM only show us whether there is a significant group difference in the average rate of change, rate of acceleration or higher polynomial effect; it fails to convey information about the magnitude of the difference between the group trajectories at specific time point. Thus, reporting and interpreting effect sizes have been increased emphases in HLGM in recent years, due to the limitations and increased criticisms for statistical hypothesis testing. However, most researchers fail to report these model-implied effect sizes for group trajectories comparison and their corresponding confidence intervals in HLGM analysis, since lack of appropriate and standard functions to estimate effect sizes associated with the model-implied difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM, and also lack of computing packages in the popular statistical software to automatically calculate them. ^ The present project is the first to establish the appropriate computing functions to assess the standard difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM. We proposed the two functions to estimate effect sizes on model-based grouping trajectories difference at specific time, we also suggested the robust effect sizes to reduce the bias of estimated effect sizes. Then, we applied the proposed functions to estimate the population effect sizes (d ) and robust effect sizes (du) on the cross-level interaction in HLGM by using the three simulated datasets, and also we compared the three methods of constructing confidence intervals around d and du recommended the best one for application. At the end, we constructed 95% confidence intervals with the suitable method for the effect sizes what we obtained with the three simulated datasets. ^ The effect sizes between grouping trajectories for the three simulated longitudinal datasets indicated that even though the statistical hypothesis test shows no significant difference between grouping trajectories, effect sizes between these grouping trajectories can still be large at some time points. Therefore, effect sizes between grouping trajectories in HLGM analysis provide us additional and meaningful information to assess group effect on individual trajectories. In addition, we also compared the three methods to construct 95% confident intervals around corresponding effect sizes in this project, which handled with the uncertainty of effect sizes to population parameter. We suggested the noncentral t-distribution based method when the assumptions held, and the bootstrap bias-corrected and accelerated method when the assumptions are not met.^