The REFLEX project: Comparing different algorithms and implementations for the inversion of a terrestrial ecosystem model against eddy covariance data

We describe a model-data fusion (MDF) inter-comparison project (REFLEX), which compared various algorithms for estimating carbon (C) model parameters consistent with both measured carbon fluxes and states and a simple C model. Participants were provided with the model and with both synthetic net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and leaf area index (LAI) data, generated from the model with added noise, and observed NEE and LAI data from two eddy covariance sites. Participants endeavoured to estimate model parameters and states consistent with the model for all cases over the two years for which data were provided, and generate predictions for one additional year without observations. Nine participants contributed results using Metropolis algorithms, Kalman filters and a genetic algorithm. For the synthetic data case, parameter estimates compared well with the true values. The results of the analyses indicated that parameters linked directly to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, such as those related to foliage allocation and turnover, or temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration, were best constrained and characterised. Poorly estimated parameters were those related to the allocation to and turnover of fine root/wood pools. Estimates of confidence intervals varied among algorithms, but several algorithms successfully located the true values of annual fluxes from synthetic experiments within relatively narrow 90% confidence intervals, achieving >80% success rate and mean NEE confidence intervals <110 gC m−2 year−1 for the synthetic case. Annual C flux estimates generated by participants generally agreed with gap-filling approaches using half-hourly data. The estimation of ecosystem respiration and GPP through MDF agreed well with outputs from partitioning studies using half-hourly data. Confidence limits on annual NEE increased by an average of 88% in the prediction year compared to the previous year, when data were available. Confidence intervals on annual NEE increased by 30% when observed data were used instead of synthetic data, reflecting and quantifying the addition of model error. Finally, our analyses indicated that incorporating additional constraints, using data on C pools (wood, soil and fine roots) would help to reduce uncertainties for model parameters poorly served by eddy covariance data.

Highly contrasting effects of different climate forcing agents on terrestrial ecosystem services

Many atmospheric constituents besides carbon dioxide (CO2) contribute to global warming, and it is common to compare their influence on climate in terms of radiative forcing, which measures their impact on the planetary energy budget. A number of recent studies have shown that many radiatively active constituents also have important impacts on the physiological functioning of ecosystems, and thus the ‘ecosystem services’ that humankind relies upon. CO2 increases have most probably increased river runoff and had generally positive impacts on plant growth where nutrients are non-limiting, whereas increases in near-surface ozone (O3) are very detrimental to plant productivity. Atmospheric aerosols increase the fraction of surface diffuse light, which is beneficial for plant growth. To illustrate these differences, we present the impact on net primary productivity and runoff of higher CO2, higher near-surface O3, and lower sulphate aerosols, and for equivalent changes in radiative forcing.We compare this with the impact of climate change alone, arising, for example, from a physiologically inactive gas such as methane (CH4). For equivalent levels of change in radiative forcing, we show that the combined climate and physiological impacts of these individual agents vary markedly and in some cases actually differ in sign. This study highlights the need to develop more informative metrics of the impact of changing atmospheric constituents that go beyond simple radiative forcing.

Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change

Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming, usually assessing the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, some aspects of the Earth system, such as global mean temperatures1 and sea level rise due to thermal expansion2 or the melting of large ice sheets3, continue to respond long after the stabilization of radiative forcing. Here we use a coupled climate–vegetation model to show that in turn the terrestrial biosphere shows significant inertia in its response to climate change. We demonstrate that the global terrestrial biosphere can continue to change for decades after climate stabilization. We suggest that ecosystems can be committed to long-term change long before any response is observable: for example, we find that the risk of significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia rises rapidly for a global mean temperature rise above 2 °C. We conclude that such committed ecosystem changes must be considered in the definition of dangerous climate change, and subsequent policy development to avoid it.

The effect of abrupt climatic warming on biogeochemical cycling and N2O emissions in a terrestrial ecosystem

The large, rapid increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations that occurred concurrent with the abrupt warming at the end of the Last Glacial period might have been the result of a reorganization in global biogeochemical cycles. To explore the sensitivity of nitrogen cycling in terrestrial ecosystems to abrupt warming, we combined a scenario of climate and vegetation composition change based on multiproxy data for the Oldest Dryas–Bølling abrupt warming event at Gerzensee, Switzerland, with a biogeochemical model that simulates terrestrial N uptake and release, including N2O emissions. As for many central European sites, the pollen record at the Gerzensee is remarkable for the abundant presence of the symbiotic nitrogen fixer Hippophaë rhamnoides (L.) during the abrupt warming that also marks the beginning of primary succession on immature glacial soils. Here we show that without additional nitrogen fixation, climate change results in a significant increase of N2O emissions of approximately factor 3.4 (from 6.4 ± 1.9 to 21.6 ± 5.9 mg N2O–N m− 2 yr− 1). Each additional 1000 mg m− 2 yr− 1 of nitrogen added to the ecosystem through N-fixation results in additional N2O emissions of 1.6 mg N2O–N m− 2 yr− 1 for the time with maximum H. rhamnoides coverage. Our results suggest that local reactions of emissions to abrupt climate change could have been considerably faster than the overall atmospheric concentration changes observed in polar ice. Nitrogen enrichment of soils due to the presence of symbiotic N-fixers during early primary succession not only facilitates the establishment of vegetation on soils in their initial stage of development, but can also have considerable influence on biogeochemical cycles and the release of reactive nitrogen trace gases to the atmosphere.

The terminal Paleozoic fungal event: evidence of terrestrial ecosystem destabilization and collapse.

Because of its prominent role in global biomass storage, land vegetation is the most obvious biota to be investigated for records of dramatic ecologic crisis in Earth history. There is accumulating evidence that, throughout the world, sedimentary organic matter preserved in latest Permian deposits is characterized by unparalleled abundances of fungal remains, irrespective of depositional environment (marine, lacustrine, fluviatile), floral provinciality, and climatic zonation. This fungal event can be considered to reflect excessive dieback of arboreous vegetation, effecting destabilization and subsequent collapse of terrestrial ecosystems with concomitant loss of standing biomass. Such a scenario is in harmony with predictions that the Permian-Triassic ecologic crisis was triggered by the effects of severe changes in atmospheric chemistry arising from the rapid eruption of the Siberian Traps flood basalts.

Cadaver decomposition in terrestrial ecosystems

A dead mammal (i.e. cadaver) is a high quality resource (narrow carbon:nitrogen ratio, high water content) that releases an intense, localised pulse of carbon and nutrients into the soil upon decomposition. Despite the fact that as much as 5,000 kg of cadaver can be introduced to a square kilometre of terrestrial ecosystem each year, cadaver decomposition remains a neglected microsere. Here we review the processes associated with the introduction of cadaver-derived carbon and nutrients into soil from forensic and ecological settings to show that cadaver decomposition can have a greater, albeit localised, effect on belowground ecology than plant and faecal resources. Cadaveric materials are rapidly introduced to belowground floral and faunal communities, which results in the formation of a highly concentrated island of fertility, or cadaver decomposition island (CDI). CDIs are associated with increased soil microbial biomass, microbial activity (C mineralisation) and nematode abundance. Each CDI is an ephemeral natural disturbance that, in addition to releasing energy and nutrients to the wider ecosystem, acts as a hub by receiving these materials in the form of dead insects, exuvia and puparia, faecal matter (from scavengers, grazers and predators) and feathers (from avian scavengers and predators). As such, CDIs contribute to landscape heterogeneity. Furthermore, CDIs are a specialised habitat for a number of flies, beetles and pioneer vegetation, which enhances biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems.

Land Use, Freshwater Flows and Ecosystem Services in an Era of Global Change

The purpose of this thesis is to analyse interactions between freshwater flows, terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. Freshwater management and policy has mainly focused on the liquid water part (surface and ground water run off) of the hydrological cycle including aquatic ecosystems. Although of great significance, this thesis shows that such a focus will not be sufficient for coping with freshwater related social-ecological vulnerability. The thesis illustrates that the terrestrial component of the hydrological cycle, reflected in vapour flows (or evapotranspiration), serves multiple functions in the human life-support system. A broader understanding of the interactions between terrestrial systems and freshwater flows is particularly important in light of present widespread land cover change in terrestrial ecosystems. The water vapour flows from continental ecosystems were quantified at a global scale in Paper I of the thesis. It was estimated that in order to sustain the majority of global terrestrial ecosystem services on which humanity depends, an annual water vapour flow of 63 000 km3/yr is needed, including 6800 km3/yr for crop production. In comparison, the annual human withdrawal of liquid water amounts to roughly 4000 km3/yr. A potential conflict between freshwater for future food production and for terrestrial ecosystem services was identified. Human redistribution of water vapour flows as a consequence of long-term land cover change was addressed at both continental (Australia) (Paper II) and global scales (Paper III). It was estimated that the annual vapour flow had decreased by 10% in Australia during the last 200 years. This is due to a decrease in woody vegetation for agricultural production. The reduction in vapour flows has caused severe problems with salinity of soils and rivers. The human-induced alteration of vapour flows was estimated at more than 15 times the volume of human-induced change in liquid water (Paper II).

Ecosystem functions are resistant to extreme changes to rainfall regimes in a mesotrophic grassland

Major changes to rainfall regimes are predicted for the future but the effect of such changes on terrestrial ecosystem function is largely unknown. We created a rainfall manipulation experiment to investigate the effects of extreme changes in rainfall regimes on ecosystem functioning in a grassland system. We applied two rainfall regimes; a prolonged drought treatment (30 % reduction over spring and summer) and drought/downpour treatment (long periods of no rainfall interspersed with downpours), with an ambient control. Both rainfall manipulations included increased winter rainfall. We measured plant community composition, CO2 fluxes and soil nutrient availability. Plant species richness and cover were lower in the drought/downpour treatment, and showed little recovery after the treatment ceased. Ecosystem processes were less affected, possibly due to winter rainfall additions buffering reduced summer rainfall, which saw relatively small soil moisture changes. However, soil extractable P and ecosystem respiration were significantly higher in rainfall change treatments than in the control. This grassland appears fairly resistant, in the short term, to even the more extreme rainfall changes that are predicted for the region, although prolonged study is needed to measure longer-term impacts. Differences in ecosystem responses between the two treatments emphasise the variety of ecosystem responses to changes in both the size and frequency of rainfall events. Given that model predictions are inconsistent there is therefore a need to assess ecosystem function under a range of potential climate change scenarios.

Equilibration of the terrestrial water, nitrogen, and carbon cycles

Recent advances in biologically based ecosystem models of the coupled terrestrial, hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles have provided new perspectives on the terrestrial biosphere’s behavior globally, over a range of time scales. We used the terrestrial ecosystem model Century to examine relationships between carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics. The model, run to a quasi-steady-state, shows strong correlations between carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes that lead to equilibration of water/energy and nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity. This occurs because as the water flux increases, the potentials for carbon uptake (photosynthesis), and inputs and losses of nitrogen, all increase. As the flux of carbon increases, the amount of nitrogen that can be captured into organic matter and then recycled also increases. Because most plant-available nitrogen is derived from internal recycling, this latter process is critical to sustaining high productivity in environments where water and energy are plentiful. At steady-state, water/energy and nitrogen limitation “equilibrate,” but because the water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles have different response times, inclusion of nitrogen cycling into ecosystem models adds behavior at longer time scales than in purely biophysical models. The tight correlations among nitrogen fluxes with evapotranspiration implies that either climate change or changes to nitrogen inputs (from fertilization or air pollution) will have large and long-lived effects on both productivity and nitrogen losses through hydrological and trace gas pathways. Comprehensive analyses of the role of ecosystems in the carbon cycle must consider mechanisms that arise from the interaction of the hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles in ecosystems.

Gaseous and fluvial carbon export from an Amazon forest watershed

The transfer of carbon (C) from Amazon forests to aquatic ecosystems as CO(2) supersaturated in groundwater that outgases to the atmosphere after it reaches small streams has been postulated to be an important component of terrestrial ecosystem C budgets. We measured C losses as soil respiration and methane (CH(4)) flux, direct CO(2) and CH(4) fluxes from the stream surface and fluvial export of dissolved inorganic C (DIC), dissolved organic C (DOC), and particulate C over an annual hydrologic cycle from a 1,319-ha forested Amazon perennial first-order headwater watershed at Tanguro Ranch in the southern Amazon state of Mato Grosso. Stream pCO(2) concentrations ranged from 6,491 to 14,976 mu atm and directly-measured stream CO(2) outgassing flux was 5,994 +/- A 677 g C m(-2) y(-1) of stream surface. Stream pCH(4) concentrations ranged from 291 to 438 mu atm and measured stream CH(4) outgassing flux was 987 +/- A 221 g C m(-2) y(-1). Despite high flux rates from the stream surface, the small area of stream itself (970 m(2), or 0.007% of watershed area) led to small directly-measured annual fluxes of CO(2) (0.44 +/- A 0.05 g C m(2) y(-1)) and CH(4) (0.07 +/- A 0.02 g C m(2) y(-1)) per unit watershed land area. Measured fluvial export of DIC (0.78 +/- A 0.04 g C m(-2) y(-1)), DOC (0.16 +/- A 0.03 g C m(-2) y(-1)) and coarse plus fine particulate C (0.001 +/- A 0.001 g C m(-2) y(-1)) per unit watershed land area were also small. However, stream discharge accounted for only 12% of the modeled annual watershed water output because deep groundwater flows dominated total runoff from the watershed. When C in this bypassing groundwater was included, total watershed export was 10.83 g C m(-2) y(-1) as CO(2) outgassing, 11.29 g C m(-2) y(-1) as fluvial DIC and 0.64 g C m(-2) y(-1) as fluvial DOC. Outgassing fluxes were somewhat lower than the 40-50 g C m(-2) y(-1) reported from other Amazon watersheds and may result in part from lower annual rainfall at Tanguro. Total stream-associated gaseous C losses were two orders of magnitude less than soil respiration (696 +/- A 147 g C m(-2) y(-1)), but total losses of C transported by water comprised up to about 20% of the +/- A 150 g C m(-2) (+/- 1.5 Mg C ha(-1)) that is exchanged annually across Amazon tropical forest canopies.

Discharge-calcium concentration relationships in streams of the Amazon and Cerrado of Brazil: soil or land use controlled

Stream discharge-concentration relationships are indicators of terrestrial ecosystem function. Throughout the Amazon and Cerrado regions of Brazil rapid changes in land use and land cover may be altering these hydrochemical relationships. The current analysis focuses on factors controlling the discharge-calcium (Ca) concentration relationship since previous research in these regions has demonstrated both positive and negative slopes in linear log(10)discharge-log(10)Ca concentration regressions. The objective of the current study was to evaluate factors controlling stream discharge-Ca concentration relationships including year, season, stream order, vegetation cover, land use, and soil classification. It was hypothesized that land use and soil class are the most critical attributes controlling discharge-Ca concentration relationships. A multilevel, linear regression approach was utilized with data from 28 streams throughout Brazil. These streams come from three distinct regions and varied broadly in watershed size (< 1 to > 10(6) ha) and discharge (10(-5.7)-10(3.2) m(3) s(-1)). Linear regressions of log(10)Ca versus log(10)discharge in 13 streams have a preponderance of negative slopes with only two streams having significant positive slopes. An ANOVA decomposition suggests the effect of discharge on Ca concentration is large but variable. Vegetation cover, which incorporates aspects of land use, explains the largest proportion of the variance in the effect of discharge on Ca followed by season and year. In contrast, stream order, land use, and soil class explain most of the variation in stream Ca concentration. In the current data set, soil class, which is related to lithology, has an important effect on Ca concentration but land use, likely through its effect on runoff concentration and hydrology, has a greater effect on discharge-concentration relationships.

Nitrate in soil humic acids revealed by N-14 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy

Ecosystem management such as plant residue retention and prescribed burning can significantly affect soil organic matter (SOM) composition and, thereby, the closely associated carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling processes, which underpin terrestrial ecosystem productivity and sustainability. Humic acid (HA) is an important SOM component and its chemical composition has attracted much attention. Here we report the first application of N-14 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to soil HA study, revealing the surprising existence of nitrate-N and ammonia-N in the HAs. This newly discovered HA nitrate-N, though in a relatively low concentrations, is closely related to soil N availability and responsive to plant residue management regimes in contrasting forest ecosystems. The HA nitrate-N may be a useful and sensitive biochemical indicator of SOM quality in response to different ecosystem management regimes.